All purpose sales and sales rumors/anecdotes thread next gen+

[chris1515]

So, after looking that Amazon April top-100 ranking list... situation is not good for Xbone software. Only Titanfall was ranked and nothing else.

Hardware:
#5 - PS4 basic package
#25 - Xbox One Titanfall Bundle

Software:
#4 - Titanfall [X360]
#8 - Titanfall [Xbone]
#23 - Fifa 14 [PS4]
#24 - MLB 14 [PS4]
#27 - Infamous Second Son [PS4]
#34 - Watch Dogs [PS4]
#35 - TLOU Remastered [PS4]
#51 - BF4 [PS4]
#60 - COD Ghosts [PS4]
#67 - Destiny [PS4]
#74 - FF14 [PS4]



Upcoming games ranking [overall preorders]:

Watch Dogs PS4 #14
Watch Dogs Xbone #49

Wolfenstein PS4 #86
Wolfenstein Xbone #152

Destiny PS4 #16
Destiny Xbone #28

I am under impression the ratio of PS4/XB1 is much higher on Amazon than on other retailer, maybe a consequence of the Sony/Amazon agreement.

http://www.nowinstock.net/videogaming/consoles/ps4/

Amazon is out of stock of basic PS4 package since 23rd of April

 

[BoardBonobo]

I am under impression the ratio of PS4/XB1 is much higher on Amazon than on other retailer, maybe a consequence of the Sony/Amazon agreement.

http://www.nowinstock.net/videogaming/consoles/ps4/

Amazon is out of stock of basic PS4 package since 23rd of April

What agreement? The only one I know about was the Sony Pictures one, and that was just about Amazon getting more access to their catalogue of movies for streaming.

 

[Rangers]

http://www.nowinstock.net/videogaming/consoles/ps4/

Amazon is out of stock of basic PS4 package since 23rd of April

Try actually clicking on the link, (mine if you're lazy to go to NIS, they're the same) it's been in stock that whole time. Some kind of Nowinstock bug.

 

[chris1515]

Try actually clicking on the link, (mine if you're lazy to go to NIS, they're the same) it's been in stock that whole time. Some kind of Nowinstock bug.

Ok I was surprise.

 

[DieH@rd]

Rankings of Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare 1 day after preorders were placed on US Amazon:

PS4: #32
XBO: #47

360: #776
PS3: #1,315

PC (Physical): #2,169
PC (Digital): #2,236

 

[kalelovil]

Not that it really matters for worldwide figures, and I'm not aware of the sales statistics, but Microsoft must be struggling here in New Zealand judging from the offers from almost all the major retailers.

NZ$648 (NZ$100 off RRP and equaling the PS4) with free Titanfall and Forza 5
http://www.jbhifi.co.nz/games/xbox-one/

NZ$645 with free Titanfall and Forza 5
http://www.thewarehouse.co.nz/red/catalog/product/XboxOne-Titanfall-Console-Bundle?SKU=1824170

NZ$644 with free Titanfall, Forza 5 and Fighter Within
http://www.mightyape.co.nz/product/Xbox-One-Titanfall-Console-Bundle/22171214

NZ$738 with free Titanfall, Forza 5, Plants vs. Zombies: Garden Warfare, and LEGO Movie Videogame.
https://www.ebgames.co.nz/xbox-one-999848-Xbox-One-Console--4-Games-Xbox-One

 

[Rangers]

Nintendo results are in. As usual, it's very ugly. For one, they only project 3.6m wii U's to ship in their next fiscal year. This is obviously far more realistic than the ridiculous 9m forecast or whatever it was last time. They shipped 310 K Wii U's, putting the lifetime total at 6.17m.

The system definitely now has the look of a cast in die failure. Looks like it will perhaps limp to 12-15m sold lifetime. This upcoming fiscal year should be it's "peak" year, which makes the forecast all the more sad.

Here though Nintendo gave a image of all their systems past sales, interesting fodder

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/sales/hard_soft/index.html

If you take the idea of Wii as an anomaly I've discussed before, their home console sales have a scary trend.

NES: 61.91m
SNES 49.10
N64 32.93
Gamecube 21.74
Wii U 6.17 (trending below Gamecube, which is hard to do)

It also shows my idea of a Nintendo mini-console could not have done worse than Wii U (lol)

I think this also puts the idea of X1 as a sales failure into perspective. It's already shipped 5.1m in two quarters. Last quarter 1.2m was 4X Wii U. Nintendo can be counted on to make Xbox look good. For PS4, Jan-March should have been at least 10X Wii U (at least 3m).

X1 shipments may not catch Wii U technically, or at least we wont know they've caught Wii U- for another 6 months, the Q that ends Sep 2014. Wii U should stay a miniscule amount ahead after the June quarter (unless MS manages to ship more than ~1.4m X1's that Q, which I'd doubt but is possible I suppose). The actual date X1 surpasses it should be sometime in that July-Sep quarter.

I'd say there's no hope for Wii U, the screen will prevent a price below 299 anytime soon if ever. And as a system lacking competitive power and third party support, no price cut even if one was possible, can make it attractive.

 

[DieH@rd]

IDC thinks that by the end of 2016 PS4 will lead the market with 51 million consoles sold worldwide. Xbone has the chance to win in the US market with significant pricedrop and unbundling of Kinect in 2015.
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articl...all-consoles-with-51-million-sold-by-2016-idc

 

[London Geezer]

IDC thinks that by the end of 2016 PS4 will lead the market with 51 million consoles sold worldwide. Xbone has the chance to win in the US market with significant pricedrop and unbundling of Kinect in 2015.
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articl...all-consoles-with-51-million-sold-by-2016-idc

51m in 2016 means Sony would have to produce a hell of a lot more ps4's than they are now, almost double the current rate.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

That's usual for a console though. PS2 did basically 10 million first year, then 20 million in second and third.

 

[Entropy]

51m in 2016 means Sony would have to produce a hell of a lot more ps4's than they are now, almost double the current rate.

By Sonys own account, the shortages should ease up by summer. Where I live, shortages aren't anywhere near as bad anymore and prices are slowly dropping. It remains to be seen at what pace the sales continue after the long initial peak. Q1/Q2 2015 should tell that tale, before that a reasonable assessment is going to be difficult.
As far as XBoxOne is concerned, remember that a part of last quarters shipment of 1.2 million went to fill the shelves at retailers in second-tier countries, as they didn't sell in the first tier nations. Again, it is difficult to assess just how many we are talking about. What is additional cause for concern outside stalled sales for XBoxOne, is that these systems are mainly just sitting on the shelves in the second tier countries, implying that the effect of actually launching in these countries will be modest.
The WiiU is in the same awkward place it has been for a year now.

The last generation of consoles sold at an average pace of more than 30 million consoles/year.

 

[Wynix]

51m in 2016 means Sony would have to produce a hell of a lot more ps4's than they are now, almost double the current rate.

Currently the PS4 has sold at least 7mil(April numbers), if we estimate 1mil per month worldwide until the end of this year you get ~15mil.
Subtract that from the IDC estimate and then you only need 36mil over 2 years.

If you look back on other popular consoles 18mil a year is not impossible by any means.

Having said that, it's obviously a different world with the rise of phone/tablet gaming.

 

[Rangers]

By Sonys own account, the shortages should ease up by summer. Where I live, shortages aren't anywhere near as bad anymore and prices are slowly dropping. It remains to be seen at what pace the sales continue after the long initial peak. Q1/Q2 2015 should tell that tale, before that a reasonable assessment is going to be difficult.
As far as XBoxOne is concerned, remember that a part of last quarters shipment of 1.2 million went to fill the shelves at retailers in second-tier countries, as they didn't sell in the first tier nations. Again, it is difficult to assess just how many we are talking about. What is additional cause for concern outside stalled sales for XBoxOne, is that these systems are mainly just sitting on the shelves in the second tier countries, implying that the effect of actually launching in these countries will be modest.
The WiiU is in the same awkward place it has been for a year now.

The last generation of consoles sold at an average pace of more than 30 million consoles/year.

PS4 has been in stock in USA starting in March to some degree. In April it basically transitioned to full stock.

So while there may have been some degree of supply constraint, though greatly lessened, reflected in the March NPD, the April one should give a fairly non-supply constrained USA sales rate of PS4. May should really end all doubts. Heck I was noticing the other day on Nowinstock, even the 2-3 links that show PS4 out of stock are now bugs (IE, link to a removed listing of an inactive bundle). Pretty much only Target online and some Target B&M's lack PS4 supply last I checked.

For X1, I disagree that a 1.2 shipped figure really needs any sitting on shelves. It's a low, conservative number based on continuing sales and history. If anything the 3.9 shipped the Q before would lend more to that analysis, if there's still a backlog.

The tier 2 countries for X1 launch in September, so I'd guess they start shipping in the Apr-Jun Q, and some in the July-Sep Q. It probably wont be that many anyway, to throw out a wild guess, maybe +500k over what they'd have shipped otherwise in that period. Probably not even that many really.

 

[Rangers]

Currently the PS4 has sold at least 7mil(April numbers), if we estimate 1mil per month worldwide until the end of this year you get ~15mil.
Subtract that from the IDC estimate and then you only need 36mil over 2 years.

If you look back on other popular consoles 18mil a year is not impossible by any means.

Having said that, it's obviously a different world with the rise of phone/tablet gaming.

Not impossible if they can keep sales strong (I guess stating the obvious).

I do wonder if as Japan PS4 sales fall off as they have, they start having more trouble moving 1m/month. It's been close to a month since their last 1m sold update (7m). But anyway, 800-900k should be fine depending if sales slow any.

But anyways 1m/month in the slow times and then way more than that in holidays=18m. If they can produce that many and if demand stays high enough.

 

[Entropy]

For X1, I disagree that a 1.2 shipped figure really needs any sitting on shelves. It's a low, conservative number based on continuing sales and history. If anything the 3.9 shipped the Q before would lend more to that analysis, if there's still a backlog.

The tier 2 countries for X1 launch in September, so I'd guess they start shipping in the Apr-Jun Q, and some in the July-Sep Q. It probably wont be that many anyway, to throw out a wild guess, maybe +500k over what they'd have shipped otherwise in that period. Probably not even that many really.

It really is difficult to assess the flow of XBoxOne boxes. However, I'll submit this - in my tier-2 country every retailer has the Titanfall bundle in stock, which implies that the boxes sitting around aren't unsold stock from Q4 2013. (There are some around of those as well.) The 1.2 million Q1 2014 are the only ones including the Titanfall bundle, so some of that volume is demonstrably soaked up by retailers outside the launch countries.

I doubt this is a really big deal though compared with margins of error inherent in only having shipped and not sold numbers. Again, the more troubling sign is that the XBoxOne seems to have very little uptake at all outside US/UK, and that launching in second-tier countries can't cause a significant surge in shipped systems.

I think upwards of a year from now is needed to have a really good grasp of where this is heading, but for the time being, it looks as if the console market is shrinking. (It looked that way before as well, but it could be reasonably argued that lack of new hardware was part of the cause.)

 

[DieH@rd]

Japan needs more game announced. Only few games so far can be seen as games that will significantly drive the sales - Phantom Pain, FF15 and KH3, and all of them are 2015+. Sony needs to light the fire below other Japanese studios, to show them that making games for PS4 can be profitable. We will hopefully see nextgen Resident Evil at this E3, but more is needed.

 

[rokkerkory]

IDC thinks that by the end of 2016 PS4 will lead the market with 51 million consoles sold worldwide. Xbone has the chance to win in the US market with significant pricedrop and unbundling of Kinect in 2015.
http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articl...all-consoles-with-51-million-sold-by-2016-idc

PS4 is selling really well but there isn't a good chance it'll hit 51m in 2 years.

 

[London Geezer]

Not without a few great games, that's for sure

 

[McHuj]

End of 2016 would be over three years (38 months).

51m would be in between what PS2 and PS3 sold in the same time frame. It's about 1.34M consoles a month, pretty close to what they're averaging now (if you assume they're at about 8M in 6 months)

I don't think it's that unreasonable, but I think it will require a price cut next year and obviously some must have games.

 

[DieH@rd]

There is enough time until end of 2016 for everything that is currently in production by Sony 1st party to come out, and if multi platforms remain in the lead on PS4 performance/resolution-wize, Sony will naturally extend their lead even more.