That's the official line.
360 Arcade, Elite, Premium, and Pro discontinued on Amazon (New SKU at GDC?!)
- Thread starter nintenho
- Start date
That's the official line.
Well thats always the official line, but you have to think something else is up because predicting demand for January in the 3rd year to be lower than the first 2 just seems silly when you consider the more advanced library and lower price.
RancidLunchmeat
Veteran
Exactly, underestimated or unexpected demand isn't an answer that passes the smell test.
I wasn't aware they were down to one out of three manufacturers. That seems absurd to me, if anything, should the trend be in the opposite direction? As the process is fleshed out, they should be easier and cheaper to manufacture and more manufacturers should then be able to replicate the process. I'd think you might start with only a few manufacturers that were capable (insert RRoD joke here), but as the process matured, you'd be able to expand to others.
In any event, to answer my original question, it seems like we don't really know what is responsible for the shortages, eh?
Actually I can understand why MS didn't plan for a uptick in holiday sales.
MS has experience relatively stable holiday sales of their console platforms. The Xbox routinely sold ~1.4 million in the US every holiday with the exception of the Halo 2 release and the sharp decrease due to the 360's release. The 360's first holiday season at full availability still only lead to 1.5 million in sales, which leads into my next point.
The 360 sold 2 million consoles in the US over the holiday 07, which is about 500K over last Christmas 06. The 1.5 million Christmas 06 figure was produced with Sony and Nintendo limited to offering just 1.7 million consoles combined over Nov and Dec. Christmas 07 represented a holiday season where the PS3 and Wii would be fully available (for wii that turned out to false). Added competition meant accomplishing 1.5 million would be harder for holiday 07 never mind moving 2 million.
Additionally, not many predicted the level of demand that would be generated by COD4, AC, GH3, Rockband, ME and others. In a lot of people eyes, COD4, AC and Rockband sold well above expectation and along with other 360 titles created unprecedented demand for the 360 platform during Christmas 07.
Furthermore in MS eyes the Halo release right before the holiday season may have represented a conundrum. An event that bolsters holiday software sales but potentially cannabilizes hardware sales. Having Halo3 on the shelf for the holiday season is a big plus but at the same time 500K+ consoles were sold in Sept as a result which meant less potential consumers for the holiday season.
dobwal, all of that may be true, but surely it doesn't take more than a couple of weeks to ramp up production in response to a surge of sales. People who buy Xbox 360's today are getting units built in mid-January. What was the problem in mid-January? Surely it wasn't just a planning problem. I'm guessing something like parts availability, or retooling for a new SKU, or stockpiling for a GTA4 price cut perhaps?
Johnny Awesome
Veteran
New SKUs is a great guess IMO.
That can be done.
The double thread did not appear to me.
I thought it was a limit on new members, and apologize if there was more than one.
The first FutureCTO post there noted this trouble.
My posts must be trying to hard to make their point.
All the detailed are intended to support the position that either....
1. Microsoft will discontinue making HDDless models in order to extend Xbox360's life.
2. Or they will have to release a new Xbox around 2009 or 2010.
I will consider titles for a thread that allows topical freedom and clearly states my Bias.
(Mostly stemming from the Dual Shock verses Immersion fallout.)
Now I'll explain the cause of the stock shortage.
Which frankly will sound like more Microsoft bashing to some.
But when someone leaves for the competition, the decision is usually better benefits.
I not only know why, I predicted it on Nov. 15th 2007 to happen during Christmas vacation.
However Playstation 3 globally outperformed Xbox360 during those two weeks.
And Xbox360 underperformed compared to their previous holiday sales growth.
http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?con...All&cons3=X360®3=All&start=38662&end=39446
You and other members hear are correct.
Microsoft is lying to the public claiming it as "unexpected sales", just as they did with December's Live issues.
Rather than admit it was in fact an easily predicted shortage.
(Hell, I predicted and don't have any connection to them.)
Xbox360 shortages Reality Check,
Wistron, Their Number One and second Longest running console manufacturer abandoned them to make Wii consoles.
This indicates two things.
1. That the Wii is more profitable to make.
2. That the manufacturer felt it was a better choice in the long run.
The weight of Wistron's decision is not to be underestimated.
Wistron has been manufacturing Xbox consoles since the first Xbox generation.
http://www.microsoft.com/presspass/press/2002/sep02/09-02wistronpr.mspx
However they produced the most consoles, so they suffered higher contractual penalty fees for RROD.
Rather than produce Xbox360 through Christmas as Microsoft and many other analysts had expected, they simply dumped making the Xbox360 the moment they were not longer under their MS contract. That is a technical fact, not my Bias.
Coincidentally, notice that the always out of stock Wii console jumped by nearly 800,000 units in sales during that time. Wistron was making 1 Million Xbox360's a month. So this is just a guess. But it may be that Wistron's Wii shortage cavalry shipped its first month of Wii production at that time.
Here are my previous posts on this topic, 2 months before NPD and Microsoft's PR lying to the public.
http://journal.pcvsconsole.com/?thread=23097
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That last post explains the shortages.
And the last quote explains the increased time people are having to wait on RROD repairs.
Back on topic,
Has anyone emailed or called Amazon to ask why they themselves do not sell the Xbox360?
Instead the choose to sell for vendors...
Was looking into it, and hit this funny category.
http://www.amazon.com/tag/defectivebydesign/products/ref=tag_tdp_sv_istp
And the last quote explains the increased time people are having to wait on RROD repairs.
Back on topic,
Has anyone emailed or called Amazon to ask why they themselves do not sell the Xbox360?
Instead the choose to sell for vendors...
Was looking into it, and hit this funny category.
http://www.amazon.com/tag/defectivebydesign/products/ref=tag_tdp_sv_istp
RancidLunchmeat
Veteran
Uhh... What?
Ok, so you've provided links that say that one of their manufacturers ceased making units. The links to messages authored by you in other forums impress nobody and are irrelevant for this discussion.
You've also failed to determine the cause for the end of the relationship with Winstron, and in fact, have supplied enough evidence to jump to the possible conclusion that it was poor quality control on Winstron's part that lead to the recalls and repairs.
It's clear you have a bias, and I thought that Graham made it clear that fanboy statements such as "the PS3 globally outperformed the 360 during that period" which is completely irrelevant, aren't appreciated here.
How does the performance of the PS3 relate, at all, to shortages of the 360? It doesn't.
You've also failed to demonstrate how manufacturing Wii consoles are more profitable for Winstron than it is for them to manufacture 360s.
I simply don't understand that leap of logic. Both consoles are clearly in scarce supply, and both Nintendo and MS clearly need to get as many consoles as possible into the supply chain. Do you want us to believe that because the Wii is cheaper and easier to manufacture, they can increase profits producing the Wii instead of the 360 because the quality control on the Wii doesn't meet the strict demands of the quality control on a truly advanced system like the 360?
From the obvious biased slant of your rants, I'm sure that's not the conclusion you had hoped one would draw, but it's the only one that fits the information you are providing.
And none of this explains why MS didn't expect the 360 to sell as it did and their party line of 'unexpected demand'.
The 360 sold 230,000 units in January. 1.2M in Dec, 770,000 in Nov, 366,000 in Oct, 528,000 in Sep, and 277,000 in August.
Why would MS expect the 360 to sell LESS units in January (and therefore creating the existing shortages) than the console sold August?
It makes no sense at all, and the loss of a single Taiwan manufacturer doesn't explain it. MS knew their contract was coming to an end, MS knew that manufacturer had quality control issues.
The idea that MS was planning for January sales of LESS than the 230,000 units (which resulted in the shortages) is just unbelievable by any measure of reality.
The only claim I can conclude from your rants and multiple links is that MS has put the lid on quality control because of their previous failures in that regard and as such have lost manufacturing partners who are capable of meeting their new standards.
While that is a possibility, I would think that two and a half years of manufacturing the console would have provided enough of Q&A map in order to let even most incompetent manufacturers reliably produce the console.
Ok, so you've provided links that say that one of their manufacturers ceased making units. The links to messages authored by you in other forums impress nobody and are irrelevant for this discussion.
You've also failed to determine the cause for the end of the relationship with Winstron, and in fact, have supplied enough evidence to jump to the possible conclusion that it was poor quality control on Winstron's part that lead to the recalls and repairs.
It's clear you have a bias, and I thought that Graham made it clear that fanboy statements such as "the PS3 globally outperformed the 360 during that period" which is completely irrelevant, aren't appreciated here.
How does the performance of the PS3 relate, at all, to shortages of the 360? It doesn't.
You've also failed to demonstrate how manufacturing Wii consoles are more profitable for Winstron than it is for them to manufacture 360s.
I simply don't understand that leap of logic. Both consoles are clearly in scarce supply, and both Nintendo and MS clearly need to get as many consoles as possible into the supply chain. Do you want us to believe that because the Wii is cheaper and easier to manufacture, they can increase profits producing the Wii instead of the 360 because the quality control on the Wii doesn't meet the strict demands of the quality control on a truly advanced system like the 360?
From the obvious biased slant of your rants, I'm sure that's not the conclusion you had hoped one would draw, but it's the only one that fits the information you are providing.
And none of this explains why MS didn't expect the 360 to sell as it did and their party line of 'unexpected demand'.
The 360 sold 230,000 units in January. 1.2M in Dec, 770,000 in Nov, 366,000 in Oct, 528,000 in Sep, and 277,000 in August.
Why would MS expect the 360 to sell LESS units in January (and therefore creating the existing shortages) than the console sold August?
It makes no sense at all, and the loss of a single Taiwan manufacturer doesn't explain it. MS knew their contract was coming to an end, MS knew that manufacturer had quality control issues.
The idea that MS was planning for January sales of LESS than the 230,000 units (which resulted in the shortages) is just unbelievable by any measure of reality.
The only claim I can conclude from your rants and multiple links is that MS has put the lid on quality control because of their previous failures in that regard and as such have lost manufacturing partners who are capable of meeting their new standards.
While that is a possibility, I would think that two and a half years of manufacturing the console would have provided enough of Q&A map in order to let even most incompetent manufacturers reliably produce the console.
Yes that would answer the question and the rumors.
They were out of stock and used an unusual place holder. ("discontinued"?)
Thank you for clearing the mystery.
Sure. Who says they did?
They sold 250,000 in year one january, 294,000 in year 2, but only 230,000 in year 3 supposedly due to shortages due to greater than anticipated demand.
So I guess you could say MS said they did.
In fact, I'm seeing post-holiday-bundle consoles in the stores with a manufactured date of February 2008. So they are literally going from the factory straight into customer hands in 20 days or less (i.e. probably not by boat). Obviously there is some kind of bottleneck and some urgent attempts to address it.
That bottleneck would be that Wistron made 40% of all Xbox360 consoles that were on the shelves.
Because that manufacturer left abruptly, the other two could only make up 20% of the missing volume.
Until they open new assembly plants Microsoft Xbox360 volume will be running on short legs.
They were at 60%, then 70%, and are now probably at 85% of previous volume.
Can anyone confirm this, especially the last bit is interesting regarding "online services". Regarding MSN, Music (Zune?), "Pictures" and hardware, did anything there ever make money? I mean, wouldnt it just prove that the 360 is making money since they must be losing money on the Zune.
The money "shuffle" that Microsoft does is a known Quantity, they have a tendency to spread out one quarters earnings over several quarters, so i wouldn´t be surprised if they did the same with Halo 3.
A tip to FutureCTO, when you post use more restraint or you will be gone to quick. Use links and quotes to back up your claims. If you say "MS hired journalists to badmouth Sony" it would be nice with just a shred of evidence, yes i think they bought some Viral muscle power myself or maybe the internet is just like Lemmings but evidence would be nicer. If you dont backup your posts it looks like stupid attacks that are useless.
And remember to get some sleep
I could also say they had predicted January spot on but December went 'wrong'.
Is it really that far fetched?
Interesting read, as far as facts and links are provide discussion is always interesting.
One little question from where did you know futurecto that the bom of the 360 is around an half of the retail price.
So 175$ if we consider the pro sku
or 135$ if we consider the arcade sku
A HHD must cost between 20 and 25 $, so I would sau 175$ and MS make less money on the arcade SKU.
Anyway it doesn't dismiss your points (not mine) but I just show curiosity
One little question from where did you know futurecto that the bom of the 360 is around an half of the retail price.
So 175$ if we consider the pro sku
or 135$ if we consider the arcade sku
A HHD must cost between 20 and 25 $, so I would sau 175$ and MS make less money on the arcade SKU.
Anyway it doesn't dismiss your points (not mine) but I just show curiosity
Thanks for clearing that up.
