Johnny Awesome
Veteran
Maybe that doesn't matter to MS in the end, now that the Wii is grabbing most of the low-end gamers anyway. Strategies change. It won't surprise me at all if they go back to HD only.
Maybe that doesn't matter to MS in the end, now that the Wii is grabbing most of the low-end gamers anyway. Strategies change. It won't surprise me at all if they go back to HD only.
I'm not arguing that they will, just that they could.
I don't agree. There are probably no more than 4 million X360s out there without hard drives. The final userbase is going to be in the 40+ million range. They can probably afford to relax that restriction as long as they reduce the HD pricing into the $60 range or so.
Say, are there any blu ray units that are also 12x DVD drives? I was wondering if they would include it in the elite model to go toe to toe with the PS3?
Elite+Pro+Arcade are back.
It shouldn't be too hard to include wireless across the board, especially if they count on extra live gold and movie rental subscriptions to pay for it.
Arcade=20gb H.D.D+wireless
Pro = 120gb H.D.D+Wireless
Elite = 120-200gb +Blu Ray+Wireless
All have a redisigned chassi for heat and noise?
Thats my interpretation of what might happen.
One moment need to dial in some communication on my points.
1. The point of having an HDD by default is room to developers to work with. Yes, Xbox360 has an HDD option. (Which costs 2x to 3x what it costs on a PS3.) But Microsoft explicitly stated multiple times gamers do not have to have an HDD to play their games. MS also places higher demand on moving the Core and Arcade systems for greater profit, than the HDD equipped systems. (I am referring to their use of retail shelf space allocated to them as major retailed. Often no sticker space for the HDD units is even present. Even though there isn’t an actual shortage of HDD’s being made. So the HDD SKU unit shortage is artificial, in that they placed higher priority on the units without HDD.) So developer must respect these factors as well as the consumers without HDD's. That means that the games cannot be designed with dependency on the HDD. And the developers were supposedly could not upgrade to the HDD in any way that defeats playing without it. Which is why Capcom wanted to install Devil May Cry. Burnout Paradise cannot be played online without an HDD on the Xbox360. So the gamers and the developers in the last case are limited by a lack of HDD.
The only way for Microsoft to overcome this, is to reverse its position and discontinue making units without an HDD. Which financially they would not do until the profits from the HDDless units pay off the RROD expenses. They literally charge twice what each unit costs to make and are still operating in the negative, due to the reliability of the console.
2. I meant that as developers learn to make use of caching and streaming from the 60MB/sec HDD on the PS3; that the 15MB/sec DVD on the Xbox360 becomes a limit to cross platform development.
3. Having headroom to grow and explore is important. The PS2 didn’t reach 90% of the devKit performance meter until 5 years into its life. Around then an amazing game called GOD OF WAR appeared. So newer better looking or performing gamers kept coming that whole time. The headroom Microsoft thought it had and advertised at launch hasn’t yet manifested. Free 4xAA and Games not needing more than one DVD9? Blue Dragon and Lost Odyssey are both 3 and 4 disc games whose poor packaging are to be blamed on the limits Microsoft places on size of US packaging. On PS3 5 DVD9 discs would fit on one Blu-Ray disc. http://kotaku.com/355825/american-lost-odyssey-packaging-is-an-exercise-in-half-measures My point being the Original Xbox had more headroom to grow than the Xbox360 due to an HDD being present by default.
All additional features on the Xbox360 absolutely require an HDD. Such as backwards compatibility, Divx video, Online Play, etc etc. The 256MB on the core models is half the internal memory on Nintendo Wii, 512 MB. That is pitiful. Financially the Core models are a trap to consumers requiring upgrade after creating a Live account and renting/buying 1 to 4 games. Each online video or (up to 150MB) online Arcade game would kill this space. They call it Arcade but it can’t hold five Arcade downloads. Two years into the life of the Xbox360 and it already had to quietly contradict back the majority of what it said it could do with the base units. Where PS3 has a 20GB minimum HDD that is openly upgradeable at less than 50% the cost. Includes Blu-ray ($300) which any HDTV owner or HD monitor gamer will want. Includes support for a second OS, that can freely be used for web browsing, printing, and just about any Linux PC tasks. PlayTV also brings an amazing new value to the package. All together you have a system that exceeds the Cult wonder of Xbox Media Center.
SDK 3.0 came out October 19, 2007. Jump forward 18 months to April 2009. If more AAA games and entertainment start hitting PS3 at that time. And they are beyond the limits of the Xbox360, the market will shift to Sony. Additionally by June 2009 the Cell and RSX will be merged using a 45nm die. Whatever else is going on, the PS3 will become a low power mega house.
If anyone bothers to apply the math…
Xbox360 Arcade $280
+ $180: 120GB HDD http://www.ebgames.com/product.asp?cookie_test=1&product_id=802643
= $460 for the Arcade with the most common HDD?
Verses a $400 PS3 that plays Blu-ray movies and works as a PC in addition to Gaming!?
Wireless add $70; Microsoft separate the Rechargeable Battery & Cable, from the Wireless controller?
$50 = Controller http://www.ebgames.com/product.asp?product_id=802113
$20 = NiMH Battery & Recharge Cable http://www.ebgames.com/product.asp?product_id=802125
Verses a $50 SIXAXIS controller with a Lithium Ion Battery that has longer usages and twice the rechargeable lifetime.
http://www.target.com/PlayStation-3...e=UTF8&node=296579011&frombrowse=1&rh=&page=1
Once Consumers start seeing how the fees are hidden costs, broken across items, Xbox360 is no bargain at all.
Curious point I just highlighted in the quote. With SDK 3.0 runtime the usable bandwidth on the IEB did in fact increase.
And bandwidth efficiency and usability of the Local Store will likely improve with time as well. Same was true of the PS2 eDRAM.
No matter how productive the Xbox360 10MB eDRAM gets it will never get more than 32GB/sec, from the advertised 256GB/sec.
The 2.5MB of local store on the IEB moves from point to point at about 102.4GB/sec = great access for linking Geometry Shading.
The only way for Microsoft to keep its lead in the next year is to drop its price by at least $80 across the board & discontinue the HDD less system.
Otherwise in 2009 or 2010 they will be announcing a whole new system to recapture their position in the market.
I don’t believe Xbox360’s gaming variety has what it takes to sustain itself beyond 2010.
You can speak hypothetically of it emulating the PS2’s reign and call other ideas crazy.
But the Wii is alreayd Crushing it harder than PS2 did last time.
And the PS3 is already outpacing it when comparing from launch day forward.
These facts make it crazy to think the scenerio this time will be much better than last.
Without an HDD or more than 256MB of memory user content creation and developmental freedom will be limited. Wii and PS3 already have user content coming. Where is this on the Xbox360?
Imagine all PC’s had to run a live imagine DVD instead of use an HDD.
The days of Xbox360 are quietly already counting down.
It may be another year while PS3 SDK 3.0, PSNetwork, PS3 Linux (Mar 2008), Home (June 2008), Blu-ray 2.0 (Oct 2008), & PlayTV mature before others see it. All you have to do is realize the game includes Nintendo Wii this time and all your forcast become crazy. Becuase things start to look worse for Xbox360 this time, than they were the last.
Xbox This Time: http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php
Xbox Last Time: http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=GC®1=All&cons2=PS2®2=All&cons3=XB®3=All&weeks=156
As you can see by comparing from launch, it is doing worse this time, than last time.
I'm not crazy. I just see the technical limits and historic statistical probability.
My forcast is consistant to the data.
Try doing the math.
Wii and PS3 are much better choices, whose sales are tracking better.
They are also much better priced when you look at the real cost of ownership.
In just another 2 years Xbox360 will have to try again or lose its starting momentum.
Those are some very good points. I believe 12x DVD on Blu-ray would be easy now.
It was insightful to note this requirement.
Ever since Burnout Paradise came out (and Little Big Planet was announced) I have expected models without an HDD to cease production.
Without an HDD being standard Microsoft has no chance of competing with Wii or PS3 for another year.
According to the charts at the bottom its rein over either console has already ended.
Here is my post from the Console Hardware Folder.
Dude this is a ridiculous post. Completely ridiculous.
PS2 never had a HDD.
Wii doesn't have a HDD.
Both are pretty successful.
I could go on and on but I dont want to offend anybody by offering my opinion that Blu Ray isn't needed for this generation of games, and that a standard HDD has proven near zero game play advantages. More third party developers have publicly struggled with PS3 and it's built in HDD than 360. Not BECAUSE of the HDD of course, but you get the point. It's my opinion that Sony didn't really want to build in the HDD anyway, but rather had to to compensate for slow Blu Ray loading. The fact we are now seeing lengthy mandatory 5GB installs on some PS3 games bears this out.
In short, you are completely wrong. It seems to me the people the core pack bothers most are always fans of other systems. Maybe that should tell you they perceive it as a threat...
And btw, how do you explain that after 2.5 years 360 is on pace to surpass lifetime Xbox shipments this year? Xbox shipped 24-25 million. 360 is at 17.7 million and will likely ship at least around 9 million in 2008. Whether it beats the PS3 or Wii, 360 has undebatable performed better and more profitably than Xbox.[/b[
One other minor point, you were also wrong about.
The Xbox360 has been less even profitable than the first Xbox despite charging twice what it costs to make.
This Xbox 2007: http://www.gamespot.com/news/6175367.html
Last Xbox 2003: http://www.infopackets.com/channels.../20060729_microsoft_q4_losses_and_profits.htm
So yeah this time is more profitable than last time…by Negative Four times.
This despite the mentioned current Xbox selling for twice what the hardware on its own costs.
Plus sales growth that trails the competition when paralleled from launch date forward.
Those are some very good points. I believe 12x DVD on Blu-ray would be easy now.
It was insightful to note this requirement.
Ever since Burnout Paradise came out (and Little Big Planet was announced) I have expected models without an HDD to cease production.
Without an HDD being standard Microsoft has no chance of competing with Wii or PS3 for another year.
According to the charts at the bottom its rein over either console has already ended.
Here is my post from the Console Hardware Folder.
I won't bother with the rest of your post, but this horrible negligence stands out.
er so selecting a quarter where they had a big one time charge and neglecting the 900million in profits the game division has made since then... nice try.
Please do some research before you spam out huge posts that are just wrong.
Out of interest... what is your definition of "competing". Are you measure both hardware and software sales? By what margin do you define "not competing"? 90% of sales of both other systems? 50%?
I'm just broswing before sleeping. But I look forward to see you cite those numbers.
Xbox360 has better pixel/texel shading performance; but lower poly, physics, & geometry performance than PS3.
And as linked and shown this System has thus far been less profitable for Microsoft than the last
Xbox system.
We know that MS ended a second manufacturing contract in the fall. I think they only have one of the original three manufacturers remaining. So there could be a manufacturing bottleneck currently. I wonder if the RROD problem was traced back to specific manufacturers?