All purpose Sales and Sales Rumors and Anecdotes [2017 Edition]

[Rangers]

There's almost universal positivity over X1X reviews/youtube/forums. Also appears by Amazon to be selling quite well. I've said it time and again but the importance of having the most powerful console almost cant be overstated. And time is the most powerful hardware's greatest friend, on a long enough timeline it will always eventually triumph (probably why you've been hearing a lot of PS5 talk on forums last year or so). Winning every single face off going forward is never ending, recurrent, positive publicity.

I will love to see if Xbox can take November NPD though. Both Switch and PS4 might be strong contenders.

I still wish X1X could have come in at 399. I realize an overly tall order especially with 12GB RAM, but if it had I cant imagine how well it would sell. I think it would be impossible to find.

While I'm here NPD was actually calculated last month from the prediction contest and I missed it. Be advised these are just estimates this time, likely off a bit.

September NPD

PS4 ~305k
XBO ~175k
Switch ~315k

Xbox has 1 more month to go without X. Actually I think the October hardware went out on the 9th? but I guess we've had no word of it, and wont until the more public release on the 16th. I hope resetera picks up right where GAF left off so we can get NPD estimates.

 

[zed]

No. While the number of 4Pro owners would increase, the GAP between PS4 owners to 4Pro owners grows by that 4:1 ratio, for instance for every 4 million PS4 gains there is only 1 million 4Pro gain, so the gap grows by +3 million. If there's another 1 million 4Pro sold then there's another 4 million PS4s sold and the gap grows +3 million again.

Check up the dictionary meaning of the word 'relative' ;-)
nah mate what I said is correct,
BS numbers but sorta correct
day 1 = 0 million PS4pro, 40million PS4 = 0/40 = 0
day 2 = 1 million PS4pro, 44million PS4 = 1/44 = 2.3%
day 3 = 2 million PS4pro, 48million PS4 = 2/48 = 4.2%
day 4 = 3 million PS4pro, 52million PS4 = 3/52 = 5.8%

sure its always gonna be behind but relatively the pro user base is growing

 

[DuckThor Evil]

Xbox One X seems to be out of stock mostly in Finland. I don't have a clue on the total amount of units though, of course our market is basically insignificant, but I'm seeing demand for it here.

 

[iroboto]

But it is sort of a mini new console launch that will have virtually no supply issues, with months of pre-orders. It is more of a new console than Pro is because it's ~4.5x the power of the base system, and XB still has a fairly large core fanbase. Pair that with XB1 sales trending downwards and it would again be no surprise to me if XBX outsells XB1S this holiday season. I don't necessarily think that it WILL happen, but I think the split will be closer to 50/50 than you may think.

After launch it will be a whole different story though.

Edit: I misremembered how many systems were moved during the holidays, so basically disregard everything I said.

There are also supply issues right now for 1X so I'm guessing even if it did well at BF, it can't move the numbers to satisfy demand.

The realities for many Xbox folks is that this is the console that plays a whole many generation of games, even better. Which could be very enticing for a lot of late upgraders to invest in the higher powered model.

Regardless I suspect Xbox will be competitive this holiday season.

 

[BRiT]

BS numbers but sorta correct
day 1 = 0 million PS4pro, 40million PS4 = 0/40 = 0
day 2 = 1 million PS4pro, 44million PS4 = 1/44 = 2.3%
day 3 = 2 million PS4pro, 48million PS4 = 2/48 = 4.2%
day 4 = 3 million PS4pro, 52million PS4 = 3/52 = 5.8%

sure its always gonna be behind but relatively the pro user base is growing

Also true is the GAP between 4Pro and PS4 is increasing.


Statistics are meaningless as they can say anything you want.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I agree with Zed, although it's all moot. the relative proportion of PS4P owners is increasing, which is the polar opposite of DSoup's comment, but that's because it's starting from zero, and as such will tend towards 20% as long as the sales ratio remains the same 4:1. The real point is that PS4P's install base is a tiddly ratio and will remain as such, being lucky to hit 10% of the total PS4 market unless there's a significant change (PS4 dropped in a year and only PS4P on sale, sort of thing). Which is also meaningless as Iroboto says because PS4P wasn't about selling lots and replacing PS4, but shoring up mid-gen defectors and getting bonus secondary-hardware sales from the hardcore. Any percentage of PS4P's is a good percentage!

 

[Globalisateur]

I agree with Zed, although it's all moot. the relative proportion of PS4P owners is increasing, which is the polar opposite of DSoup's comment, but that's because it's starting from zero, and as such will tend towards 20% as long as the sales ratio remains the same 4:1. The real point is that PS4P's install base is a tiddly ratio and will remain as such, being lucky to hit 10% of the total PS4 market unless there's a significant change (PS4 dropped in a year and only PS4P on sale, sort of thing). Which is also meaningless as Iroboto says because PS4P wasn't about selling lots and replacing PS4, but shoring up mid-gen defectors and getting bonus secondary-hardware sales from the hardcore. Any percentage of PS4P's is a good percentage!

I disagree, vehemently.

Current best selling PS4 consoles on amazon.fr​

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Disagree with what? Sony's own data that they are selling 4:1 PS4ro?

 

[Globalisateur]

Disagree with what? Sony's own data that they are selling 4:1 PS4ro?

Well I think that this ratio will increase. Soon it's going to be 3:1, etc.

 

[MrFox]

It starts at 20% but it should rise above that as 4K sets adoption continues, and in a year or two the price of mid-gens will drop in the consumer's goldilock zone, making it more interesting than the slim skus. (and then we will start getting some real next gen buzz)

Right now, midgen consoles are twice the price, or more. During BF it's 199 for normal sku vs 399/499 for midgen which doesn't provide all that much without a 4K tv.

A small issue is how many are just upgraders, but even upgraders are potentially gamers who would have moved on to other more powerful platforms had their favorite platform not offered a mid-gen sku. It's not easy to figure how an alternate history would have played out.

 

[BRiT]

It's not easy to figure how an alternate history would have played out.

All it takes is watching some old film clips, ala Man in the High Castle.

I think it will be extremely hard to tell as time goes on IF the price of the base models decrease to a point where more users jump in at the bottom level instead of more users jumping to 4K setups. ie: base model hits critical bottom price point for mass consumption.

 

[iroboto]

Well I think that this ratio will increase. Soon it's going to be 3:1, etc.

As per Zed and Shifty, the % owner of PS4Pro owners will increase until I guess at limit will approach the ratio.

What your suggesting here is entirely different though. if I recall correctly the first ratio was all launch and pre-order sales up to January compared to PS4 of the same sales time frame.

I would be curious if they managed to maintain that ratio now that early adopters have been satisfied. Price points haven't changed yet. So normally in this case we should expect at best the same sales curve, and more predictably less sales. An increase in sales would usually result in a price drop, or the value of the product increased

 

[iroboto]

All it takes is watching some old film clips, ala Man in the High Castle.

I think it will be extremely hard to tell as time goes on IF the price of the base models decrease to a point where more users jump in at the bottom level instead of more users jumping to 4K setups. ie: base model hits critical bottom price point for mass consumption.

Memory prices and hard drive prices must be a factor here

we could really use a BOM model here for current gen to see if prices can drop.

 

[goonergaz]

I've said all along that XBX will have a huge launch and sell VERY well in the first few months. It is a significant upgrade over base XB1 and XB still has a fairly large core fan base, who are hungry for a more powerful system. Plus they have a huge marketing push for it. I would not be surprised if XBX outsells XB1S during this holiday season.

The question is, will XBX continue to sell well once they saturate their core market. My guess is no; it's a niche $500 console and it will start to trend towards PS4/PS4Pro splits after 4-6 months after release.

It will be interesting to see which midgen sells more in the end. My guess is the Pro will have a much slower start, but it will have steadier sales, whereas XBX will be heavily frontloaded.

My thoughts exactly.

No way a $500 system will out sell a $199 version that plays the same games. Most people do not have 4k TVs and there is still a huge number of casuals who never upgraded the 360/PS3 and don't care for "Powa!". The BF bundles will bury the XBX in Nov.

Yes and no. XBX launched in November and will sell really well so will have very nice figures so I wouldn't say 'buried', but I totally agree with the opening comment WRT paying $300 more for just a better version of games (when most won't fully appreciate it). By the time 4K is commonplace Sony will be talking true native 4K PS5.

There's almost universal positivity over X1X reviews/youtube/forums. Also appears by Amazon to be selling quite well. I've said it time and again but the importance of having the most powerful console almost cant be overstated. And time is the most powerful hardware's greatest friend, on a long enough timeline it will always eventually triumph (probably why you've been hearing a lot of PS5 talk on forums last year or so). Winning every single face off going forward is never ending, recurrent, positive publicity.

Let's see what happens once the die hard fans have bought their consoles before too much celebrating, let's see the figures in Feb and March once we're out of the launch window and sales in general are struggling.

I still wish X1X could have come in at 399. I realize an overly tall order especially with 12GB RAM, but if it had I cant imagine how well it would sell. I think it would be impossible to find.

Whichever way I think about it I come back to thinking this console is purely for the die hard XBO early adopters who were upset with the weak and poorly executed console (compared to PS4 of course). They know this market will pay whatever they ask and they know what they wanted (most powerful console on market). Beyond that I'm really struggling to see who will buy this, especially at the price and with the focus so heavily on 4K with doesn't have a big enough penetration.

 

[goonergaz]

Well I think that this ratio will increase. Soon it's going to be 3:1, etc.

I'm not so sure, It's telling that Sony didn't mention todays figures (or last months) just 'so far.

4:1 includes the launch window (which will be a high ratio) - sales at launch might have been 2:1 and today sales might be as low as 6:1 (totally out of my backside). As such over the year it's been 4:1 but next year even if sales improved from the (totally guessed) 6:1 today to 3:1 by this time next year, over the year it would be (say) 5:1.

Also, why would the ration increase? The only market that I suspect might cause this is the market Cerny was talking about, those who might have migrated to PC versions of games as the consoles began to struggle - this is a new market (really) and there's no evidence either way. I suspect it is there but the price needs to drop to access it, but whilst Pro prices drops as does PS4 and mass market buys more PS4s.

There may (I suspect) be a scenario where PS5 is released and PS4 phased out and Pro remains, then of course things change and the hardware gap would close.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

This seems important to understand but I don't understand can you explain this one, I think I get it, but i don't get it. Perhaps I've too much on my mind.

The PS4 Pro market is getting smaller - relative to the base PS4 - everyday day because it's being massively outsold by PS4 every day. If PS4 outsold Xbox 4:1 would that be good for Xbox? If not, why is it good for PS4 Pro? Mid-gen consoles are a welcome, but indulgent experiment, that I do not expect to be repeated.

What Pro has demonstrated after a year is that the vast majority gamers, i.e. the biggest spending market, favour price over performance. This shouldn't be surprising as console gamers have been happy with sub-30fps, sub-HD resolutions for a few generations, why DVD still outsells Blu-day and why many people are content with their shitty low-bitrate 'HD' TV broadcasts. A 'good enough' experience cheaper is simply more attractive.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

The PS4 Pro market is getting smaller - relative to the base PS4 - everyday day because it's being massively outsold by PS4 every day.

This post shows that's not true. That would be true if PS4Pro launched first and had an install base that was now being watered down. As it launched second, the relative market size, proportion of the PS4 install base, is increasing.

If PS4 outsold Xbox 4:1 would that be good for Xbox? If not, why is it good for PS4 Pro? Mid-gen consoles are a welcome, but indulgent experiment, that I do not expect to be repeated.

Mid-gen consoles are not a replacement or a rival console, so should not be measured by the standards used for competing consoles. The purpose of PS4Pro is to make additional money on top of what PS4 could alone. If it manages that and is profitable for the effort expended, it'd be worth repeating. Lots of us expected sales to be niche; I can't believe Sony thought otherwise, and IIRC they've said sales have been as expected.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

This post shows that's not true. That would be true if PS4Pro launched first and had an install base that was now being watered down. As it launched second, the relative market size, proportion of the PS4 install base, is increasing.

Fair point, math fail on my part.

Mid-gen consoles are not a replacement or a rival console, so should not be measured by the standards used for competing consoles. The purpose of PS4Pro is to make additional money on top of what PS4 could alone. If it manages that and is profitable for the effort expended, it'd be worth repeating. Lots of us expected sales to be niche; I can't believe Sony thought otherwise, and IIRC they've said sales have been as expected.

I'd argue this. Lots of posters on this forum replaced their existing console with a PS4 Pro. This is not a console marketed for buyers yet to invest in an 8th generation console. I don't know way Sony's sale expectations were for PS4 Pro but their public statement on why they developed the console was to prevent user base attrition, specifically mid-gen migration to the PC market.

 

[Arwin]

Don’t forget that eventually the Pro will be the 199$ unit and the original PS4 off the market. Probably near the time of the PS5 which should then be fully backwards compatible I’m guessing.

 

[London Geezer]

I don’t see the Pro going down to £199 any time soon. Especially when the direct competitor will stay at above 300 for a long time.