Sony PS6, Microsoft neXt Series - 10th gen console speculation [2020]

If a specific hardware configuration, shader compilation issues should at least be nullified.

As well as a specific hardware configuration, it would also require the games to be distributed with a specific driver, and the games to use that driver rather than a single system level driver.

So maybe you'd run the games in a virtual machine, like on console? It'd need to be different to the current way that games are distributed and run on PC.

MS have consistently impaired the core gaming experience on Xbox since the success of Kinect on the 360 went to their heads. Be it through pivoting software towards Kinect, releasing underpowered and overpriced hardware, forcing expensive unappealing peripheral on customers who don't want them, or deliberately removing hardware pushing killer apps from their first party offerings, MS always miss the target. I have little faith that if they deliver an Xbox branded PC for their next console, they won't also bring across the bad aspects of Windows gaming.
 
An Xbox, but not an Xbox. An Xbox, but with additional windows overhead, a higher level API without smash drivers, more streaming hiccups, and shader compilation stutterstruggle.

I can hardly contain my enthusiasm for such a console.
The Steam Deck shows that this version of PC games can be more optimized. As others have written, this can be solved.

It is true that a traditional console model would be better for us users, but the industry is not going in this direction. And one more thing, there are several outstanding advantages of PC gaming that exceed the capabilities of traditional consoles and in some respects provide better quality for end users. For example, the better quality of modern upscaling options and their free applicability in many more games. Which has actually become a game changer in terms of graphics and image quality today.

There are disadvantages and advantages. As long as there is a choice, everyone can decide which one is more sympathetic.
 
An Xbox, but not an Xbox. An Xbox, but with additional windows overhead, a higher level API without smash drivers, more streaming hiccups, and shader compilation stutterstruggle.

I can hardly contain my enthusiasm for such a console.
Yes unfortunately these are all valid observations. Different OEMs with different but similar hw configurations for the Xbox branded hardware.
 
If New Xbox hardware winds up being just Xbox branded PCs what would be the differentiating experience? Any modifications to Windows would presumably be available to any Windows device no?

So perhaps they'll have builtin Xbox wireless for easy connection to Xbox controllers but I can't think of anything else they could do to differentiate from non branded PCs.
 
If New Xbox hardware winds up being just Xbox branded PCs what would be the differentiating experience?

The Gen 10 Xbox(es) differ from Windows PC in that they'll have a gaming first front end. This is where we see MS heading with the current PC handhelds. You wouldn't put those devices in the same category as a desktop PC.

As a package, the difference between the next Xbox and a PC is going to be that it sets a minimum spec, form factor and cost.

Being able to dip out into proper windows is useful, but as with the Steamdeck, some users will never use that option or even know it's there.

SInce this is a hardware thread, I think MS will still commission their own ARM based SoC(s). I don't think there's anything off the shelf in 2-3 years that would do the job.
 
The Gen 10 Xbox(es) differ from Windows PC in that they'll have a gaming first front end. This is where we see MS heading with the current PC handhelds. You wouldn't put those devices in the same category as a desktop PC.

As a package, the difference between the next Xbox and a PC is going to be that it sets a minimum spec, form factor and cost.

Being able to dip out into proper windows is useful, but as with the Steamdeck, some users will never use that option or even know it's there.

SInce this is a hardware thread, I think MS will still commission their own ARM based SoC(s). I don't think there's anything off the shelf in 2-3 years that would do the job.

Why do you think they'd go for ARM? I'm genuinely asking out of curiosity.

I assume Microsoft would want future Xbox games to be cross compatible with the broader PC market (so both ARM and X86) to reach more customers, so I just further assume ARM wouldn't be chosen for some specific architectural reason if that's the case?
 
Why do you think they'd go for ARM? I'm genuinely asking out of curiosity.

I assume Microsoft would want future Xbox games to be cross compatible with the broader PC market (so both ARM and X86) to reach more customers, so I just further assume ARM wouldn't be chosen for some specific architectural reason if that's the case?

They're making a portable and opening up hardware to third party vendors. Going with ARM makes that architecture work fully for gaming first devices. It opens up more SoC choice for third parties. Eventually, mobile SoCs end up powerful enough to run an Xbox profile. Xbox everywhere and all that.
 
Is anyone else thinking that this upcoming generation will be far more impressive than the current one? 3nm will help though we don’t know how much yet. But the biggest difference will be that new consoles are likely targeting 1080p at best and leaving the rest to ML upscaling. So target resolution isn’t going to move much if at all. That should hopefully leave more headroom to produce better visuals.
 
Nope. The biggest difference was SSD and functionality. Next gen is going to be exactly the same with some marginally better graphics. Given a higher price point, the same games with no generational exclusives, nothing new in the controllers (Sony's tried a few times now and nothing really matters in that regard), it's gonna be the blandest generation of all time.
 
If it's not going to revolutionize next gen visuals it could at least do something on price. I honestly think games on the PS5 Pro look fine enough. I'd be fine with a less revolutionary HW update and have a cheaper console. Considering inflation the last couple of years, and what looks like escalating trade tensions going forward, a decent price might be quite the sales argument on its own.
 
Nope. The biggest difference was SSD and functionality. Next gen is going to be exactly the same with some marginally better graphics. Given a higher price point, the same games with no generational exclusives, nothing new in the controllers (Sony's tried a few times now and nothing really matters in that regard), it's gonna be the blandest generation of all time.

Why so pessimistic? I wager if AMD had another crack at the PS5Pro with RDNA4 on 4nm they would already do better than marginally better graphics. RDNA 5 on 3nm should do even better. Also by then developers will be 3 years further along on their ML journeys where things like ML denoising and materials may actually be usable on a console. And again I don’t think they would need to aim higher than 1080p.
 
Is anyone else thinking that this upcoming generation will be far more impressive than the current one? 3nm will help though we don’t know how much yet. But the biggest difference will be that new consoles are likely targeting 1080p at best and leaving the rest to ML upscaling. So target resolution isn’t going to move much if at all. That should hopefully leave more headroom to produce better visuals.
Next-generation consoles will deliver what people were hoping the current generation would deliver: Nanite-level high detail geometry plus high quality ray traced lighting with good performance and image quality. With current gen consoles you could only get one or two of the three: Nanite-level geometry; RT lighting noticeably superior to raster lighting without excessive noise, artifacts, or temporal lag; or solid 60FPS performance without sub-1080P rendering resolution. PCs can already get all three (although we haven't seen Nanite-level geometry + high quality RT due to API limitations only recently addressed by Mega Geometry) with neural upscaling and denoising far superior to the upscaling and denoising methods available on current-gen consoles, next-gen consoles should be able to do the same.

We're not going to see any great graphical leaps in next-gen games that we haven't already seen in tech demos on PC, but if they can get anywhere close to those tech demos that will already be a big improvement over current-gen.
 
Yeah I’m not expecting any miracles compared to current PC hardware. The gulf in power consumption and raw horsepower is too vast. It’s more about significantly raising the console baseline which should benefit all other platforms too.
 
Why so pessimistic?
I don't understand. You asked if anyone else thinks it'll be a bigger leap than PS4 to PS5. I presented my reasoning. What will next-gen bring that'll attain a bigger leap from what we have now? Not even the same degree of progress, bucking the trend of diminishing returns, but a reversal of that with algorithms that provide an even better improvement than the increase in silicon will allow.

I don't see where pessimism comes into it. I think believing in a continuation of diminishing returns is the realistic expectation and expecting more than that (maybe from new ML methods) is being optimistic. And, as I say, that's the only area to improve as core functionality and controllers and everything else appear to have plateaued.

I guess one reason to think PS5 > PS6 will be more impressive than PS4 > PS5 is because PS4 > PS5 really was uninspired in terms of visual upgrades.
 
In terms of visuals, PS6 will absolutely be a more visible jump compared to PS5. As far as usability, PS5 is already fast and snappy, the os is fluid and games load fast. So on that front, there will be a lesser upgrade.
 
What will next-gen bring that'll attain a bigger leap from what we have now?

I proposed my answer to that question. PS4 to PS5 was accompanied by an increase in target render resolution. PS5 to PS6 will do the opposite. Target render resolutions will be lower and the hardware will be better tailored to modern workloads.
 
Is anyone else thinking that this upcoming generation will be far more impressive than the current one? 3nm will help though we don’t know how much yet. But the biggest difference will be that new consoles are likely targeting 1080p at best and leaving the rest to ML upscaling. So target resolution isn’t going to move much if at all. That should hopefully leave more headroom to produce better visuals.
It won’t be. Cross gen will be even worse IMO.
 
What would those memory changes be? HBM is out of the question, and GDDR7 just makes sense to me.

HBM could be in-play depending on affordability of the cheaper HBM3 variant. If not, then options like the eventual GDDR7W (variant of GDDR6W) could be possible if it's available by that time.

Really, the bigger advances would be implementation of PIM (Processing-In-Memory) or PNM (Processing-Near-Memory); the latter is something PS5's SSD I/O subsystem already implements a form of with the coprocessors, cache coherency engines etc. coupled with the flash memory controller and DDR4 memory. It's not hard to imagine PS6 will implement a more advanced version of that focused not just on general storage data I/O but data particular to AI & machine learning, probably with a further implementation for metadata.

For me the timelines were separate and then crossed paths.

- AMD was developing an AI solution for its FSR upscaling. RDNA 3 incorporated some matrix accelerator instructions that are important for achieving machine learning upscaling. This to me indicates that there was already an intention to do this probably in FSR3.
- Sony was developing an AI solution for the PS5 Pro, likely based on RDNA 3.
- Their paths crossed when Sony noticed that AMD's solution was better, despite being computationally heavier. So they joined forces to share models to improve both companies' solutions.

If AMD's approach was better why would SIE take the lead in announcing and putting force Project Amethyst to the public? I think that's something the side with a more desirable implementation would've done, don't you?

Truthfully I don't think either implementation at least up to a certain point was outright "better" than the other; they had different implementations for different purposes. AMD's likely being more scalable (since it's focused on PC), SIE's being more efficient for PS5 and planned PS5 Pro & PS6 design specs. Each with strengths and weaknesses, but not possible to actually specify one as objectively "better" than the other IMHO.

All that really matters now is, both companies are in partnership for Project Amethyst and there's going to be a lot of collaboration going forward with them WRT AI, ML and other related tech. I suspects SIE will try focusing on aspects specific to gaming while AMD focus on aspects related to data centers, cloud computing etc. but both sides sharing from a common R&D pool they each are actively feeding into.

To accelerate PSSR, the PS5 Pro uses WMMA instructions derived from RDNA 3. Cerny calls the PS5 Pro GPU RDNA 2.X, as it contains RDNA 2 for raster, WMMA instructions from RDNA 3, and RT implementations from RDNA 4.



It doesn't make sense to me that AMD didn't think of a machine learning solution for its upscaling when including hardware for this in its GPUs.

For me, AMD has always intended to do something with machine learning. GPU Open has had a lot of articles for a long time about different ways to use Radeon for AI, there is even an SDK, Radeon ML. Sony may have planned PSSR in 2021, but it obviously already had in mind the hardware on which it would base the AI training, otherwise, where would it do it? It would be inefficient to do it on different hardware, it goes beyond the purpose of a console.

In my opinion, the paths were somewhat separate until AMD's research yielded better results, which made Sony adapt what they had already been developing to unify efforts. In the interview with Cerny, this is clear to me, but it seems to me people are trying to build a story where Sony is responsible for everything that AMD brings.

I don't think anyone is actually saying Sony (SIE, technically) are wholly responsible for everything AMD is bringing to the table. In fact I've seen no one other than yourself implying that. However, it's also worth saying that the inverse isn't true, either, i.e Sony for whatever reason dumped all of their progress to adapt what AMD was doing because somehow AMD had all the answers for AI-driven upscaling for a PlayStation platform better than the company that's been making PlayStations for three decades :/.

So what I was saying above, that both parties having their own approaches beneficial to their own end goals, with primary intentions for different markets (console gaming for SIE, data centers/cloud compute etc. for AMD). Then at some point, they saw each other's individual results, liked each other's individual results and decides "hey, let's work together since we've got some crossover mutual goals (gaming specifically: console for SIE, PC for AMD)", and boom: Project Amethyst is born.

Generally speaking, there's no reason to think both sides didn't enter the partnership as equals, versus thinking one side "needed" the other's progress because their own results were proving inadequate for intended purposes. But that's just my take on it, I guess :/
 
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More details on the Xbox OEM handheld. If this works out well they may do this instead of a closed system Xbox.

TBH that's what I'm thinking of lately; MS's end-goal is to move as much of the Xbox OS & UI experience to Windows as possible, not the other way around. I just thought they would try for the inverse as a generational stopgap, which is what the 2027 machines are there for: as a fail safe.

As to say, if the Windows gaming PC devices show adequate results, are received well by the fanbase and enough of the market (understanding they aren't going to have "massive" sales, even if brick-and-mortar distribution can be better for them than they are for the Steam Deck where I think it's nonexistent?) etc., then MS will probably quietly cancel the more "console-ish" plans and continue with the Windows gaming PC devices, iterating on that with improvements and new models in 2027.

They're doing that approach first, IMO, because it's the one they actually want to take hold; another gen with console specs they have to specifically R&D, still has to primarily push Xbox OS and all the such, is the last thing they want to commit to. So they'll still do some R&D on those devices (even if they don't push those models specifically, they can repurpose them as Windows gaming PC devices with consolized features) but if they see an opportunity to not go that path, they'll drop it.

Every Xbox console game is released on PC. The library is one.

A lot of Xbox owners have OG Xbox, 360, even some XBO (early gen) games that are either not on PC in any official capacity, or aren't there at all in a way that can be played outside of emulation.

Microsoft still has to ensure those owners can access those games wherever they go, in order to claim the library is actually whole/one.
 
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A lot of Xbox owners have OG Xbox, 360, even some XBO (early gen) games that are either not on PC in any official capacity, or aren't there at all in a way that can be played outside of emulation.

Microsoft still has to ensure those owners can access those games wherever they go, in order to claim the library is actually whole/one.
Games that are 10+ years old are actually only of interest to 1-2% of potential users. MS is targeting the 100+ million gamers with their next gaming model who are mostly interested in new games.

I've been an Xbox fan since the beginning, collecting games with the idea that I'd play them all someday. Well, since then I've realized that I'm only interested in current games and I only play new ones.

Furthermore, if I still want to play an old game, there are emulators that are constantly improving.
 
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