Do you think there will be a mid gen refresh console from Sony and Microsoft?

Discussion in 'Console Technology' started by invictis, Mar 24, 2021.

  1. invictis

    Newcomer

    Joined:
    May 28, 2013
    Messages:
    109
    Likes Received:
    67
    I'm not too sure there will be one this gen. If anything the PS6 and Next box will come around a year or two earlier than previous gens.

    Last gen we had the move to 4k TV's, and I just don't see a similar move to 8k TV's this time around.
    We also had the situation where both consoles were pretty mild on the specs front, while this gen there isn't really a weakness.

    Another reason I don't think there will be is because the PS 5 and XSX contain tech that is new and hasn't really utilised yet in games engines, so there is alot of progression in games to be had just by using those features.
    The SSD on both consoles are untapped and will help redefine game designs. The XSX has Mesh Shaders and Sampler Feedback Streaming that is currently not used on any games, and both these technologies will provide substantial performance gains when utilised. The same can be said of the PS5 with its Primitive Shaders.

    Its going to be many years before games get released that take advantage of all those additions.

    The only area where I see they may fall behind is in Machine Learning. The XSX has it to some degree, but not at DLSS levels, and the PS5 is missing it.
    If AMD were to release RDNA 3, and it has bug advancements in that area it may trigger something from Sony or Microsoft. However it appears AMD isn't going that direction, as they are running with Fidelity FX.

    That's my thoughts anyway.
     
    Rootax likes this.
  2. Nesh

    Nesh Double Agent
    Legend

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2005
    Messages:
    13,067
    Likes Received:
    3,188
    8k is a waste. The performance required to get there increase exponentially while the perceived difference is diminishing. Other feature sets contribute better to the visuals and experience than an increase in resolution.
    Even the most powerful GPUs kneel running games at 8k.
    The consoles just aren't capable to go that high and they shouldnt.
    It simply isnt worth it.

    I suspect that a mid gen refresh won't be about 8k. It will be about running 120fps 4k as standard.
     
    goonergaz likes this.
  3. snc

    snc
    Veteran Newcomer

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2013
    Messages:
    1,121
    Likes Received:
    823
    So big probability we will see ps5pro. I don't think the jump in pure resterization power will be as big as from ps4 to ps4pro (and for sure not as from xone to xox) but could be significant in rt and dlss equivalent capabilities if amd catched up nvidia in next generation hardware.
     
  4. Karamazov

    Veteran Regular

    Joined:
    Sep 20, 2005
    Messages:
    4,010
    Likes Received:
    4,013
    Location:
    France
    if they continue to bring more and more of their exclusives to the PC, they might not need to release a mid gen refresh. If you want the best experience you'll just buy a PC.
    They should make more money even, instead of releasing another costly SKU that won't compete with high end PCs in the end.
    But PS6 might release in 5 years instead of 7.
     
    PSman1700 likes this.
  5. BRiT

    BRiT (>• •)>⌐■-■ (⌐■-■)
    Moderator Legend Alpha

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2002
    Messages:
    19,107
    Likes Received:
    21,739
    What constitutes mid-gen for the current-gen that launched in 2020 November? Is it released by a certain year with improved performance? If so, what year? No later than 2023 November? Or 2024 November?
     
  6. ToTTenTranz

    Legend Veteran

    Joined:
    Jul 7, 2008
    Messages:
    12,272
    Likes Received:
    7,226
    Native 4K is a waste. 8K is just ridiculous e-peening unless you own an IMAX.


    PS4 Pro came exactly 3 years after the PS4, OneX came 4 years after the One.
    Between November 2023 and November 2024 sounds accurate, but I think it will depend on which year is able to provide decent volume for 3nm.

    As for what constitutes a mid-gen upgrade, we'd need to see how the asset-streaming based engines develop over the next couple of years. It could be that future games will mainly need faster and more storage, perhaps along with higher RT performance, with the upgrade in CPU cores and/or GPU width being smaller in comparison. Or we're simply looking at a Navi21-class GPU and they call it a day.
    Or assuming there are 2 mid-gens, they could focus on 2 different things. For example, the PS5 Pro could focus more on an enhanced VR experience while the SeriesX^2 goes for a better TV experience (120Hz, more RT performance, etc.).
     
    Johnny Awesome and BRiT like this.
  7. AzBat

    AzBat Agent of the Bat
    Legend Veteran

    Joined:
    Apr 1, 2002
    Messages:
    7,588
    Likes Received:
    4,535
    Location:
    Alma, AR
    Why not go small instead of big?

    I sure as hell wouldn't want to get anything bigger than the flagships.

    Series S in the size of a Switch would be ace too.

    Tommy McClain
     
    thicc_gaf and BRiT like this.
  8. Proelite

    Veteran Regular Subscriber

    Joined:
    Jul 3, 2006
    Messages:
    1,581
    Likes Received:
    1,045
    Location:
    Redmond
    We will 100% see a mid gen refresh having more RT and ML capabilities.
     
    Globalisateur and Johnny Awesome like this.
  9. BRiT

    BRiT (>• •)>⌐■-■ (⌐■-■)
    Moderator Legend Alpha

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2002
    Messages:
    19,107
    Likes Received:
    21,739
    Are we sure it's a mid-gen and not rolling generational updates? This is why I'm asking "What's a mid-gen refresh?" Would the introduction of new CPU or GPU features prevent it from being considered mid-gen?
     
  10. goonergaz

    Veteran

    Joined:
    Jun 3, 2005
    Messages:
    4,307
    Likes Received:
    1,579
    But think of the Xbox naming convention!!

    Seriously though, I can see either a shorter gen or mid gen refresh - it would make sense to switch to a 4 year cycle in my tiny mind - big enough of a jump to make it worthwhile and small enough to miss/skip a generation if you wanted.

    This would allow Sony/MS to charge top dollar for the latest tech and still sell the old model as a budget option.

    For me the next consoles will be about 4K 120 with good RT (etc).
     
    BRiT likes this.
  11. Allandor

    Regular Newcomer

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2013
    Messages:
    665
    Likes Received:
    619
    Well, at least the xbox should have the least problems with a refresh.
    E.g. I can imagine a 4 year cycle from now on. So every 4 years a refresh and dropping system compatibility for new games after 8 years. I really thought they would already have done this after PS4 Pro and xbox one x just because, you can already do everything on that hardware, just in lower quality. And there will still be new games that are "limited" by the CPU speed of the last generation and will just use e.g. the extra CPU power to get it to 60/120.

    So far I haven't seen anything, that wouldn't be possible on on last gen machines with less, quality, additional loading screens or disabling e.g. RT. Games over the last years have just been refined more and more, but not evolved into something you really need new hardware for.
     
    PSman1700 likes this.
  12. snc

    snc
    Veteran Newcomer

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2013
    Messages:
    1,121
    Likes Received:
    823
    mid gen refresh is when developer can't target only new console (so if rumours about switch pro are true that it will have games not available for original switch its hard to call refresh)
     
    BRiT likes this.
  13. Tkumpathenurpahl

    Tkumpathenurpahl Oil Monsieur Geezer
    Veteran Newcomer

    Joined:
    Apr 3, 2016
    Messages:
    1,898
    Likes Received:
    1,905
    The PS4 was consistently a 1080p machine. The Pro consisted of 2.2x ("times" not "x" FFS) the power of the base console while being tasked with outputting a satisfactory image for 2160p screens.

    Checkerboard rendering was seemingly the main solution that Sony had in mind, as there was hardware support for it. First party games consistently made good use of checkerboarding. Third party games consistently scaled the resolution up from 1080p to 1440p and used any remaining juice to dial up some other settings such as AF.

    For that reason, I predict a PS5 Pro will be designed for developers to dial up some settings with minimal effort. In my opinion, the easiest way to achieve this is to lean into an AMD or Sony equivalent of DLSS, thereby allowing developers to render at a lower resolution than the base PS5, but output at a higher perceived resolution with additional higher settings.

    Both the PS5 Slim and the PS5 Pro will be manufactured on 5nm to keep wafer costs low. The PS5 Pro will use a vapour chamber and be of a comparable size to the slim. Only the Pro will have an ODD. There won't be much difference between them in terms of cost.

    Due to TSMC's predictions, I think the GPU will be clocked at a variable 2.5GHz, the CPU at a variable 4GHz. They'll stick to 16GB's of memory, but move to 18gbps. The GPU will have something akin to tensor cores, and perhaps some improvements to RT hardware too.
     
    Proelite likes this.
  14. milk

    milk Like Verified
    Veteran Regular

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2012
    Messages:
    3,735
    Likes Received:
    3,827
    I'll restate my predictions in writing on this thread then:

    Microsoft will go for the rolling gen model from now on.
    Sony will have a PS5pro during this gen, and a proper PS6 later.
    PS5pro key marketing feature will be "double the framerate on everything"

    I'm taking bets on these.
     
  15. BRiT

    BRiT (>• •)>⌐■-■ (⌐■-■)
    Moderator Legend Alpha

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2002
    Messages:
    19,107
    Likes Received:
    21,739
    So finally 60 fps on PS4 first party titles?
     
    PSman1700 likes this.
  16. eastmen

    Legend Subscriber

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2008
    Messages:
    12,711
    Likes Received:
    3,632
    I think MS will just take the newest Graphics design from AMD and the newest CPU and put it in two new boxes. I expect the replacement for the Series S to be almost as powerful as the ps5 in raw specs but of course much newer design and cheaper to produce. I expect the new Series X replacement to be much faster than the series X. Gains from just micron process reductions is gone. Ram speed increases are slowing down. So I expect them to take advantage of Infinity cache to help with that.
     
  17. pjbliverpool

    pjbliverpool B3D Scallywag
    Legend

    Joined:
    May 8, 2005
    Messages:
    8,700
    Likes Received:
    3,201
    Location:
    Guess...
    I'd argue 120fps is almost as big of a waste. I just don't see the point. 60fps is already buttery smooth and responsive. The graphical cut backs on consoles to run at 120fps are way too great for what you get IMO. I'm honestly not even sure I can tell the difference, although I haven't put any effort into side by side comparisons. Yes I'm impressed by the crazy smoothness of the games I can run at 120fps at my chosen (i.e. max) graphics settings, but similarly I'm impressed by a solid 60fps. I've no doubt twitchy shooters would benefit but for most games, especially on a control pad I think the cost outweighs the benefit by a significant margin.

    It absolutely depends on your screen and viewing distance. A few months ago I would have agreed with you. Then a got a 38" 3840x1600 display which I sit 2-3ft from. Native resolution look vastly better then even 70% - 80% upscaled.

    That would require CPU's that are twice as powerful as the Zen2 in PS5 within 2-3 years. Seems pretty unlikely to me.
     
  18. snc

    snc
    Veteran Newcomer

    Joined:
    Mar 6, 2013
    Messages:
    1,121
    Likes Received:
    823
    you don't need twice as powerful cpu to double fps especially in 4k
     
  19. milk

    milk Like Verified
    Veteran Regular

    Joined:
    Jun 6, 2012
    Messages:
    3,735
    Likes Received:
    3,827
    The main benefit of 2x framerate claim for a PS5 PRO is that it is an easy to market feature. That's why I think sony will engineer it for that goal.

    I also though 4k native (not even actually native when it comes to PS4 pro) was a waste of respurces and I still do. I still use a 1080p TV but own a 4k monitor for work, and while it gives me welcome extra definition amd real-estate for work (I am a graphic designer so I edit photos and video a lot on PS, Illustrator and AE...) when I game on my PC I still prefer 1080p res with high settings and framerate.

    I don't think PS5 pro will have double the GPU nor CPU grunt to achieve 2x framerate, just like PS4 pro did not have 4x GPU power. It will give devs just enough extra power to give them room to employ trickery to shorten the gap.

    Graphics wise, they'll recommend devs to lean on temporal reconstruction to double framerates without strictly doubling pixel shading work while still achieving comparable IQ.

    CPU wise too. A lot of game tasks don't need to run every single frame. Even a lot of physics and animation can technically update every other frame and interpolate or extrapolate the in-betwens. Obviously, not all devs will do the work, so those titles will just run at an erratic unlocked framerate that will hover from 2x vanilla ps5 to 1.5x. And they will call it a day and the world won't end. 1st party and other more thorough devs will sort it out.

    Also, like in 4pro, most games will offer the choice of performance (2x fps) and quality (better resolution/aa or maybe effects) modes so people that don't have 120fps monitors can still see benefit on games that are already at 60fps on vanilla ps5.
     
    #19 milk, Mar 29, 2021
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2021
  20. Nesh

    Nesh Double Agent
    Legend

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2005
    Messages:
    13,067
    Likes Received:
    3,188
    I agree, but it is certainly much easier to reach and sell than 8K where such TVs barely exist and those that do are super expensive.
    The resources required for 8k 60fps are much more than reaching 4k 120hz. I dont think the former is doable at a good price.
    But 120fps is supported by more TVs and gaming monitors. These upgrades will target " the pros, the hardcore". Those that made Sony release the PS4 Pro. Its going to be a niche market most likely.
     
    milk likes this.
Loading...

Share This Page

  • About Us

    Beyond3D has been around for over a decade and prides itself on being the best place on the web for in-depth, technically-driven discussion and analysis of 3D graphics hardware. If you love pixels and transistors, you've come to the right place!

    Beyond3D is proudly published by GPU Tools Ltd.
Loading...