Though your post is correct in principle, this is inaccurate:
RTRT won't be fast enough to calculate light-propagation models for lighting games completely. Instead, devs will use the RTRT capabilities with other representations and algorithms to get better approximations from the data structures available. eg. Using SDF light volumes and RTed occlusion maps to prevent bleed-through.
We're not trying to solve RT, but to solve realistic lighting and shading. For this we need both compute power and RT performance. RT performance will never be enough to path-trace games completely. Compute-only has too many shortcomings. The two combined will make the most of the compute-capable modelling, but we won't see the real benefit of these gains until well into next-gen.
RT in and of itself doesn't mimic light transport. It simple determines when a triangle or other geometric representation lies on a straight line. This calculation can be used for many things, including inaccurate RT rendering. The earliest RT images didn't consider light-transport and just used shading models like Lambertian to calculate lighting.One is fast 2D drawing of a 3d approximation of what things should like, the other mimics physical light transport.
RTRT won't be fast enough to calculate light-propagation models for lighting games completely. Instead, devs will use the RTRT capabilities with other representations and algorithms to get better approximations from the data structures available. eg. Using SDF light volumes and RTed occlusion maps to prevent bleed-through.
We're not trying to solve RT, but to solve realistic lighting and shading. For this we need both compute power and RT performance. RT performance will never be enough to path-trace games completely. Compute-only has too many shortcomings. The two combined will make the most of the compute-capable modelling, but we won't see the real benefit of these gains until well into next-gen.