Will Halo 3 Sell More Day 1 Copies Than Halo 2 (2.38M) In NA?

[Acert93]

Stupid Silly Poll For Fun :smile:

Will Halo 3 Sell More Day 1 Copies Than Halo 2 Did In North America? Halo 2 sold 2.38M copies on its first day in North America and generated $125M. Bonus Questions:

1. How many copies will it sell Day 1 (NA)?

2. How many copies will it sell Day 1 (WW)?

3. How many copies will it sell CY2007 (NA)?

4. How many copies will it sell CY2007 (WW)?

5. Will any game outsell Halo 3 in CY2007 sales (WW)?

6. Will Halo 3 generate more than $125M (the Halo 2 figure) in first day sales (NA)? How much more/less?

7. Will Halo 3 beat Gears of War to 2M? 3M? 4M?

As a reference points, WW Gears of War sold 1M in 2 weeks, took about 5 weeks for 2M, at about 10 weeks Gears of War exceeded 3M, and sold 4M in about 18 weeks.

I thought about doing Day 1 sales US/WW, Week 1 US/WW, etc... but that gets difficult. Even expecting firm Day 1 NA/WW sales could be iffy if MS decides not to release those numbers. So I went with a logical question: Will it outsell Halo 2 first day? If yes, we will hear about it... if no, we won't I could have done CY2007, but I think people are impatient and waiting 4 months would make this poll obsolete by then...

What promted such a silly thread? The news of 1M+ pre-orders, seeing forum posters talk about just now pre-ordering the game, a poster here mentioning their Gamestop had over 300 pre-orders, and someone mentioning that Walmart will have a dedicated Halo 3 check out on the 25th... crazy stuff. The game has been hyped, and then hyped some more (even before SP was ever shown). This is as much a media circus as game, so we might as well comment on it.

 

[aselto]

4. How many copies will it sell CY2007 (WW)?

My bet is 6M copies and it will have stronger legs than Halo 2, selling a few additional millions of units throughout 2008 and 2009.

6. Will Halo 3 generate more than $125M (the Halo 2 figure) in first day sales (NA)?

Yes, with $60, $70 and $130 SKUs (instead of $50 and $60) it is bound to generate more revenue even if it actually sell a bit less copies day 1.
edit: anyone has an idea when can we expect theatrical trailer?

 

[Acert93]

Will Halo 3 Sell More Day 1 Copies Than Halo 2 Did In North America? Halo 2 sold 2.38M copies on its first day in North America and generated $125M.

Yes. Although the 360 has a smaller install base than the Xbox had when Halo 2 shipped, I expect Halo 3 to best those Day 1 sales... barely. I expect the 360 to move quite a few units this holiday, with many customers picking up Halo 3 at the same time. So fewer 360s now and for the year compared to 2004, but it won't matter... unless CoD4 and Mass Effect totally steal the thunder.

1. How many copies will it sell Day 1 (NA)?

2.5M

2. How many copies will it sell Day 1 (WW)?

3.2M

3. How many copies will it sell CY2007 (NA)?

4M

4. How many copies will it sell CY2007 (WW)?

5.2M

5. Will any game outsell Halo 3 in CY2007 sales (WW)?

No. Although GTAIV would have been close. Keep an eye on Super Mario Galaxy and SSB3 though. They won't top Halo 3, but they will definately move a lot of units.

6. Will Halo 3 generate more than $125M (the Halo 2 figure) in first day sales (NA)? How much more/less?

With the Legendary SKU being sold out already? Yes.

7. Will Halo 3 beat Gears of War to 2M? 3M? 4M?

It is gonna beat it like a red headed step child.

 

[Paul_G]

Stupid Silly Poll For Fun :smile:

Seems more like a questionnaire to me

1. How many copies will it sell Day 1 (NA)?

I think it will sell at least 2.5m. I know MS are saying it will do the best day 1 sales of any entertainment format including film so presumably they believe it will outsell Halo 2, not sure by how much they need to in order to meet that target though

2. How many copies will it sell Day 1 (WW)?

I should imagine it will do at least another 500k in other territories so 3m should be possible worldwide. I'm not sure how popular it is in the rest of Europe, but certainly it should do pretty well in the UK

3. How many copies will it sell CY2007 (NA)?

4. How many copies will it sell CY2007 (WW)?

I don't know how representative I am, but there are two games I am really interested in this autumn, PGR4 and Halo 3. I can only really afford one of them so one will have to wait until christmas when i'm sure some kind relative will buy the other for me. How many others will wait, for whatever reason, for Christmas before they get it? I really don't know but i imagine it will do pretty well all the way through to 2008 and should easily manage another million units, probably 2 million. 5 million in total WW sounds reasonable to me.

5. Will any game outsell Halo 3 in CY2007 sales (WW)?

On Xbox, no. I don't know if there is anything for Wii coming... I shouldn't think anything on PS3 will outsell it simply due to the number of units out there.

6. Will Halo 3 generate more than $125M (the Halo 2 figure) in first day sales (NA)? How much more/less?

More, apparently Spiderman 3, whose record MS expect to beat, managed first weekend sales of $151m. I personally think MS will meet that expectation, so it would be at > $151m

7. Will Halo 3 beat Gears of War to 2M? 3M? 4M?

I don't think it will have any problems beating Gears to all of those milestones. It is a proven franchise with a greater install base to market to, I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit 4m in a quarter of the time

 

[nintenho]

yes. everybody I know that stood in line for halo 2 is getting this and considering this is the last traditional halo game it's probably going to feel more important for people to get it at launch (specifically at midnight). Even I want to get it at midnight and the first day of classes is the next morning.

I can't really tell about the other numbers because it depends on word-of-mouth, if MS can produce enough copiees, and that 360 is at a much different point than xbox 1 was when halo 2 launched.

 

[zed]

in reality it wont, at halo2's launch in nov2004 there were more xbox1's in NA than currently there are xb360's worldwide!!!!
in saying that though, MS will report something WRT halo3 'best ever'
A/ most games sold on day1 ( like the 10.4million xb360's sold in 2006 )
B/ most revenue for a game day ever (this could actually in fact be true)
C/ most revenue in a single day ever for a entertainment product (ie bigger than any film)
im betting all 3 will be reported

another question is will halo3 boost xb360's NPD numbers to above wii's number with the september NPD figures? im guessing ~320k

 

[DieH@rd]

It will sell a lot, but not over 2.4mil on day 1.

 

[Natoma]

Stupid Silly Poll For Fun :smile:

Will Halo 3 Sell More Day 1 Copies Than Halo 2 Did In North America?

I don't think it can. The Xbox had a combined install base of roughly 20m consoles when Halo 2 launched, almost double the current install base of the Xbox 360.

An equivalent % of 360 owners purchasing Halo 3 would be ~1.32m.

To match 2.4m sales on the first day, ~22% of current 360 owners would have to purchase Halo 3. Considering "only" 12% purchased Halo 2 for the Xbox on the first day, I just don't see that happening.

 

[aselto]

Natoma, yes but X360 owners have different purchase habits than Xbox 1 owners. Maybe Xbox Live structure and community changed that, but 360 has much more million sellers than Xbox 1 had. Plus I expect Halo fans to finally buy 360 in September (and later throughout 4th quarter) so Halo 3 numbers won't be limited by userbase (at least not that much) but by actual game quality and reviews. There were 1+ million preorders a month ago in US only and TV ads should be airing soon. I have no idea how much Halo 3 would sell on day 1, but 2.4 million on day 1 wouldn't surprise me.

 

[Paul_G]

I don't think it can. The Xbox had a combined install base of roughly 20m consoles when Halo 2 launched, almost double the current install base of the Xbox 360.

An equivalent % of 360 owners purchasing Halo 3 would be ~1.32m.

To match 2.4m sales on the first day, ~22% of current 360 owners would have to purchase Halo 3. Considering "only" 12% purchased Halo 2 for the Xbox on the first day, I just don't see that happening.

You're assuming the same demographics, proportionally, own the 360 as did the Xbox though. I think there are several factors that would suggest this is not the case.

- Xbox was $149 when Halo 2 was released. There would have been a far higher proportion of people who bought the console at that price or a price lower than launch price. This suggests they're not the sort to buy on day 1. In contrast, the 360 has only just had it's first price cut. The vast majority of 360 owners bought the console at launch price which suggests they may be more willing to make a day 1 purchase of Halo 3.

- Pre-orders are already in excess of 1m units. This puts it pretty close to your figure with pre-orders alone. It's not an unrealistic assumption that pre-orders will make up only a part of the total number purchased.

- 360 owners have already shown an almost unheard of willingness to purchase games for the system. One with the hype and expectation of Halo 3 is bound to do well.

- The 360 is seen as the FPS console. Despite the real figures showing this is not the case, it is true that many of the better selling games are shooters. It is therefore a reasonable assumption that if those games sold well, Halo 3 should too.

These points are not to say that you're wrong. When you look at it this way: 'One in five 360 owners will buy Halo 3 on launch day' it does seem a little improbable. However I do think your reasoning is flawed for the above reasons. Whether they will make a big enough impact remains to be seen.

 

[NavNucST3]

I don't think it can. The Xbox had a combined install base of roughly 20m consoles when Halo 2 launched, almost double the current install base of the Xbox 360.

An equivalent % of 360 owners purchasing Halo 3 would be ~1.32m.

To match 2.4m sales on the first day, ~22% of current 360 owners would have to purchase Halo 3. Considering "only" 12% purchased Halo 2 for the Xbox on the first day, I just don't see that happening.

I would be interested in hearing your approximation of how many units it will move.

 

[Scott_Arm]

Don't think the Xbox360 install base is big enough yet, but they'll probably sell a copy with almost every 360 in NA from now on. It'll be a huge success and most likely the 360s biggest title. That's as long as the didn't manage to somehow screw it all up and end up with terrible reviews.

 

[Daozang]

I'm voting "No"...
I don't think the current install base is big enough. Eventually it will surpass both Halos and Gears and it might even get close on H2 on the first week. But day one copies sold will be less IMO.

 

[RobertR1]

I'm going with how well it reviews. Mid to high 90's from the top hitters will do wonders for sales. It's interesting to note the hype building up. Can't recall the last COD4 Beta games I was in within the past weekend in which talks of Halo3 didn't come up. A high majority suggesting that if the beta ended Sept 24, it would be quite alright.

The ball is in bugie's court, really. If they can impress the reviewers you'll see the lightning in a bottle explode hard.

 

[Arwin]

I don't think it can. The Xbox had a combined install base of roughly 20m consoles when Halo 2 launched, almost double the current install base of the Xbox 360.

What's worse, we're talking U.S. only.

An equivalent % of 360 owners purchasing Halo 3 would be ~1.32m.

So that too is going to be a little bit less.

To match 2.4m sales on the first day, ~22% of current 360 owners would have to purchase Halo 3. Considering "only" 12% purchased Halo 2 for the Xbox on the first day, I just don't see that happening.

I still think it is possible. Halo 3 has an even better name than it used to, and current 360 owners are of the type that would buy both CoD4 and Halo3 probably. And current 360 owners are a different selection, more narrow group than when 12% bought Halo 2 for the Xbox.

All in all I wouldn't be surprised. And I expect the replay feature to be extremely popular and defining for this kind of online gaming in the future.

That said, I am more interested in the actual numbers for the reverse reason: how many of the current 360 owners are the kind of gamer that like Halo.

 

[jb]

- Pre-orders are already in excess of 1m units. This puts it pretty close to your figure with pre-orders alone. It's not an unrealistic assumption that pre-orders will make up only a part of the total number purchased.

I have not pre-orded it but will try to take my chances walking in and picking one up on opening day. So I would bet I am not alone in this.

I think it will break Halo2 record.

 

[Tap In]

$10 million ad campaign

This week, Microsoft breaks its Halo 3 "Believe" TV ad campaign touting the Xbox 360 title's highly-anticipated Sept. 25 launch. The estimated $10 million-plus effort centers on an immaculately constructed diorama depicting the great battles of lead character Master Chief....


The TV push is the grand finale of a five-pronged attack Microsoft quietly launched last December. The carefully orchestrated onslaught was designed to make casual fans interested and core fans rabid as Microsoft aims to eclipse Halo 2's record-breaking $125 million in sales on day one. To date, Halo 3 is already on the books for one million preorders and counting. ...


Phase 1: Starry Nights. During Monday Night Football last Dec. 4, Microsoft hit 7.9 million households (and 1.8 million of its target 18-34 audience) with an eerie spot featuring Master Chief grabbing his helmet and jumping into the fray. Tag: "Finish the fight." It has since been viewed on YouTube more than 3 million times.

Phase 2: The Beta. In May, fans could enter to win a chance to try a multiplayer beta version at Halo3.com. A third of a million people entered. Additionally, anyone who purchased the title Crackdown could play the beta. Before the beta expired on June 10, 820,000 participants spent more than 12 million hours of playing online. Using its saved films feature, where you can capture snippets of gameplay and download it, more than 350 terabytes of Halo 3 data was downloaded from Xbox Live (which is the equivalent of 82 million music downloads).

Phase 3: Project Iris. This five-part viral effort harkens back to Halo 2's cryptic "Ilovebees" effort. Beginning with a fake ad planted in Best Buy circulars, "Halo nation" sought out clues via an online/offline scavenger hunt to unlock new information about Halo 3 and its back-story.

Phase 4: Promotional Partner Activity. Much like movie franchises look to secure key category partners, so did Halo 3. It locked up Pontiac, which committed $5 million in media to the game's launch, and Mountain Dew which has been heavily promoting its Halo 3-themed Game Fuel flavor on TV, plus Burger King, Game Stop,7-Eleven, Samsung and Comcast. It is even sponsoring Linkin Park's current tour.

Phase 5: Believe. Microsoft began re-running Starry Nights last month leading up to the Believe campaign this week. A week-long celebration featuring the making of specials, tournaments and media frenzy typical of a Hollywood blockbuster will lead up to a midnight madness event. In the U.S. alone, 10,000 stores will open at midnight to give fans the chance to buy the product first....

 

[one]

Since Microsoft announced only dollar-based sales, people are trying to make an estimate of it for unit sales.

http://biz.gamedaily.com/industry/feature/?id=17607

Estimate: Halo 3 Sells 2.34 Million Units on Day One

...

Well, GameDaily BIZ likes numbers and we weren't satisfied with having nothing but a dollar total. We got in touch with one of our corporate contacts at a major retailer who told us that generally for every four standard copies sold, two limited edition copies and one legendary edition is sold. If that breakdown can be applied nationally for all outlets selling Halo 3, some simple math can yield a day one total unit amount, which can then be broken down by the provided ratios to give us unit amounts for each of the three SKUs.

The breakdown suggests that 14 percent of copies were legendary, 29 percent were limited edition, and 57 percent were standard edition. Therefore, the following equation can be solved for T (where T = total units).

(0.14T x $129.99) + (0.29T X $69.99) + (0.57T x $59.99) = $170,000,000

Solving the above shows that T = 2.34 million units.

Now that we have total units we can apply the ratios to give us a breakdown as follows:

* Standard edition: 1,333,800 units
* Limited edition (aka 'scratched discs edition'): 678,600 units
* Legendary edition: 327,600 units

The grand total of 2.34 million units sold on the first day is significantly higher than the 1.7 million copies that Microsoft said were pre-ordered, meaning that nearly another 700,000 people bought the game without any pre-order. By our estimates then, Halo 3 fell just short of meeting Halo 2's total of 2.4 million copies sold in the first 24 hours.

In addition, with all the hype around Halo 3, the game technically might not even have sold out. Our source indicated that his company still has stock from the initial allotment, and he reminded us that Microsoft's numbers are typically sell-in, not sell-through.

A Goldman Sachs analyst previously predicted that 4.2 million copies of Halo 3 would ship during the first week.

 

[AlNom]

If they're going to do two decimal places, they should at least get the Halo 2 figure correct: 2.38M
http://www.gamespot.com/news/6112915.html

 

[Arwin]

That said, I am more interested in the actual numbers for the reverse reason: how many of the current 360 owners are the kind of gamer that like Halo.

Is it too early now to conclude on the basis of the sales figure that the current 360 hasn't sold to a significantly different demographic from the previous Xbox so far?