At the moment I can buy FIFA on disk for (far) less than as a digital download, and I can take that disk to a friend's, put it in their PS3, and play immediately (barring updates
). As long as download doesn't provide a cost or functionality improvement, there's still going to be interest in discs.
This is only because console DD is still years behind PC DD (I'd mention phone/tablets but they don't have to deal with shared distribution with optical).
Steam and various online DD stores have shown that DD only software can be discounted at anytime for any reasons. Often MSRP of DD drops before MSRP of physical drops. There's also usually a pre-order discount of between 10-25% off the MSRP depending on title. So launch prices for games don't even have to be more than sale prices of launch optical media.
People generally look to the Summer/Winter sales when they think of discounted DD software, but it happens all year around with discounts on a weekly/daily basis.
BTW - this was happening before Steam had any competition as well, so it's not like it's only happening because they have competition for digital sales.
So there's no reason that Microsoft and Sony can't do the same.
Here's the rub:
1. Sony and MS need retailers to sell their systems, since online-only hardware sales would kill either of them.
2. Retailers won't sell systems without games to sell to make money.
3. Optical disks are here to stay, for now.
4. Digital can't undercut Retail (see #1, above).
Going point by point.
1. Yes they do, hence no one (at least not me and other people posting about a BRD less version of the PS4/Xbox One) are advocating the complete removal of the BRD this generation.
2. Again, true. DD only distribution still allows retailers to sell games, however. Either through the sale of a redeemable code on a card, or by selling cards to purchase DD content (like Steam cards, PSN cards, Xbox Live cards, etc.). That said, optical distribution still has a place, and neither Microsoft nor Sony can safely ignore it at this time.
3. True again. Noone is advocating the complete removal of the BRD for this generation. Everything I've said is always with the assumption that there is going to be a BRD SKU through this entire console generation with more BRD console sales at the beginning and likely more non-BRD console sales at the end (if a non BRD console is released).
4. False. Steam regularly undercuts retail and has done so since launch. It is just more frequent now that DD represents over half of all PC software sales. There isn't a reason that Microsoft or Sony couldn't do the same. Especially as more and more consumers migrate to DD since that is how they purchase most of their software on PC and all of their software on Phones and Tablets.
Regards,
SB