You know, I wouldn't be surprised if the distribution of votes in this poll represented the distribution of next-gen sales!
Who will be the market leader next generation?
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DuckThor Evil
Legend
Shifty Geezer said:
I was thinking the exact same thing
SedentaryJourney
Regular
My pick rhymes with pony.
Dr Evil said:Shifty Geezer said:
I was thinking the exact same thing
Not really. Two reasons:
1.) Not everyone is biased toward their favorite system. Some people are willing to admitt their favorite brand wont finish world wide. jvd is a good example. If you look jvd voted for Sony and I am pretty sure he is planning to get a Xbox 360 and is keeping his options open toward Nintendo and maybe Sony. I know I am contemplating an Xbox 360 for a number of reasons (a big one being my friends plan to get one). A couple other in the thread also seem to indicate they will get an Xbox 360 yet think the PS3 will be the market leader.
Basically, a person can plan to get a console even if I do not expect it to be the world wide market leader--or even the leader in their local market.
2.) Local market dominance is more important than total sales. As an American, if Xbox 360 is head for head with Sony in the US that is more important than total market tp _me as an American_. If I like Xbox 360 game exclusives best & MS competes well with Sony in the States, then there really is no question what I should get.
On the verse, even if MS was the world wide market leader it would probably still would not compete game wise in Japan with Sony/Nintendo, therefore as a Japanese consumer I would want to get a non-Xbox console if I could only have one (unless I really really liked the few Xbox exclusives).
I think this point is especially true of Nintendo fans. A Nintendo fan can be resolved to know that Nintendo WONT be the market leader... yet that wont stop them from buying a Revolution. So in this case the numbers clearly do not betray the buying intent of the poster.
Anyhow, people being honest in a projection poll says little about what they personally will buy. I think Sony will dominate next gen, but unless they start offering more games I like this will be the 2nd gen in a row that I don't own a Playstation product.
I never said it did. I never meant anything with my remark other than I could well imagine a 6:2:1 ratio of PS3:Xenon:Rev. In no way am I trying to justify my belief. It just looks to me like it might happen that way, as a sort of gut instinct.Acert93 said:
DuckThor Evil
Legend
Acert93 said:Dr Evil said:Shifty Geezer said:
I was thinking the exact same thing
Not really. Two reasons:
1.) Not everyone is biased toward their favorite system. Some people are willing to admitt their favorite brand wont finish world wide. jvd is a good example. If you look jvd voted for Sony and I am pretty sure he is planning to get a Xbox 360 and is keeping his options open toward Nintendo and maybe Sony. I know I am contemplating an Xbox 360 for a number of reasons (a big one being my friends plan to get one). A couple other in the thread also seem to indicate they will get an Xbox 360 yet think the PS3 will be the market leader.
Hey I keep my options open too, I even bought Gamecube twice during this gen, I don't own it now, eventhough it has some games I would like to play Resi 4 for example, because I'm kind of waiting the next gen, If Rev turns out to be interesting I'm first in line to buy it. I voted for PS3, because I believe Sony will sell most units I haven't decided which will be my favorit unit, because they are not out yet, so I don't know. I prefer Xbox this gen, put I still think that PS2 has stronger lineup, so please don't call me biased, it's just not true.
Xbox didn't get 2nd becuase it had more powerful hardware. it got second because it had more games and developer support then gamecube. The majority of people that bought xbox probably didn't even notice a difference in graphics for the majority of thier games as as the PS2 was the base development platform for cross platform titles almost 95% of the time. I do agree PS2 had the best software lineup this gen, by far.
MS will do much better in Japan this time around. It has some well known Japanese devs making games for it now. (Not dev companies, but guys that head these dev companies). I can see MS easily doubling their current userbase in Japan with the new console. That should be pretty easy to do without much hassle.
I think I need to change my forecast for the next generation. I am going out on a limb here but I find it highly possible that Sony can have as little as 50% of the market when all is said and done. Sure, the PS3 might be powerful but I take a look at how serious Microsoft is with the new system and it is no joke. Sony will really have to fight back next gen and pull out all stops. It will have to do this and remain profitable. We all know CELL will probably be a loss maker and not turn profitability in console form for at least 18 months. The future is bright for Sony but my forecast sees some riany clouds in the days ahead.
There are two very big reasons why I change my belief of what may happen in the next generation. Microsoft and Nintendo. MS is serious about the next generation on levels previously unseen from the company. They are releasing a year earlier and that is a major advantage for them. SEGA didn't have the cash to throw around at 3rd parties to make sure they don't leave or stop development for the DC because of the looming PS2 at the time. MS, on the other hand, has plenty of money and drive to keep 3rd parties this time around. XNA looks to be a very good development tool that will help PC developers make games for both PC and Xbox2/360/Xenon without going to outside sources. The marketing will be there, and it will be effective. And secondly, games suc as Halo 2.5, Perfect Dark 0, an excellent RPG from Bioware, and countless others will be there within the first year for Xenon. All this combines for a very lethal launch and a great first year for 360.
Nintendo is the second reason. I have reason to suddenly believe they will have a lot stronger presence next generation. I think they will grab at least a quarter of the total market or more. 20% at the very lowest, and that is a very conservative estimate. Some of this has to do with a change of hands from within Nintendo, but also a change of stance within the company. I have reason to believe that Nintendo knows it can cater to the niche and mainstream at the same time. I have reason to believe that Nintendo can do it in such an effective way that a lot of us will sit there in amazement at them actually pulling it off. Nintendo is also serious this time around and that is a good thing. I believe an agressive Nintendo is good for the industry as a whole. No reason not to be conservative and agressive at the same time. The business plan seems to be much stronger and Nintendo will have their franchises in the next generation packing a big punch. I predict that the big Mario game on Revolution will sell 2.5 times as much as Sunshine. Don't know about the Zelda Revolution title yet as it has yet to be seen how the new Zelda on Cube will sell (4 million copies at least).
All in all I think next generation will be a lot more interesting and even among the game companies. Nintendo and MS going up in share, Sony going down.
I think I need to change my forecast for the next generation. I am going out on a limb here but I find it highly possible that Sony can have as little as 50% of the market when all is said and done. Sure, the PS3 might be powerful but I take a look at how serious Microsoft is with the new system and it is no joke. Sony will really have to fight back next gen and pull out all stops. It will have to do this and remain profitable. We all know CELL will probably be a loss maker and not turn profitability in console form for at least 18 months. The future is bright for Sony but my forecast sees some riany clouds in the days ahead.
There are two very big reasons why I change my belief of what may happen in the next generation. Microsoft and Nintendo. MS is serious about the next generation on levels previously unseen from the company. They are releasing a year earlier and that is a major advantage for them. SEGA didn't have the cash to throw around at 3rd parties to make sure they don't leave or stop development for the DC because of the looming PS2 at the time. MS, on the other hand, has plenty of money and drive to keep 3rd parties this time around. XNA looks to be a very good development tool that will help PC developers make games for both PC and Xbox2/360/Xenon without going to outside sources. The marketing will be there, and it will be effective. And secondly, games suc as Halo 2.5, Perfect Dark 0, an excellent RPG from Bioware, and countless others will be there within the first year for Xenon. All this combines for a very lethal launch and a great first year for 360.
Nintendo is the second reason. I have reason to suddenly believe they will have a lot stronger presence next generation. I think they will grab at least a quarter of the total market or more. 20% at the very lowest, and that is a very conservative estimate. Some of this has to do with a change of hands from within Nintendo, but also a change of stance within the company. I have reason to believe that Nintendo knows it can cater to the niche and mainstream at the same time. I have reason to believe that Nintendo can do it in such an effective way that a lot of us will sit there in amazement at them actually pulling it off. Nintendo is also serious this time around and that is a good thing. I believe an agressive Nintendo is good for the industry as a whole. No reason not to be conservative and agressive at the same time. The business plan seems to be much stronger and Nintendo will have their franchises in the next generation packing a big punch. I predict that the big Mario game on Revolution will sell 2.5 times as much as Sunshine. Don't know about the Zelda Revolution title yet as it has yet to be seen how the new Zelda on Cube will sell (4 million copies at least).
All in all I think next generation will be a lot more interesting and even among the game companies. Nintendo and MS going up in share, Sony going down.
A big difference this time around is X-Box LIVE will be up and running from day one. Microsoft launched last time without LIVE, but with the XB-360 there will be plenty of good online enabled games from start. Of course LIVE will be more robust than ever before.
MS won't have that hard of a time creating rabid demand for the next-gen hardware among the hardcore gamers, but getting the bulk of those early adopters online will take some effort.
MS won't have that hard of a time creating rabid demand for the next-gen hardware among the hardcore gamers, but getting the bulk of those early adopters online will take some effort.
twisted-txb
Newcomer
i think well have a much better idea past E3.
if the the PS3 isnt 30% power 70% hype then i have doubts about MS "winning the next-gen war."
the celll looks very impressive, on paper.
if the the PS3 isnt 30% power 70% hype then i have doubts about MS "winning the next-gen war."
the celll looks very impressive, on paper.
Brimstone said:
It will take some effort indeed online gaming is not the 'IT' factor for next generation and I don't see it affecting sales. How many Live subscribers vs Xbox units shippped/sold, around 1.8-2 million vs 20 million which is close to +/- 10%. People bet too much on Live as a sales point, Big N and Sony can both come out with great online systems with just as solid of an infrastructure and what if they're free? If online gaming is such a huge next gen factor like some people believe it will, what if the competition is offering a similar service free of charge.
There are just too many possibilities to foresee who comes out on top next gen but Sony is again on track for a threepeat. We will find out soon enough
on a next gen note: GT5 on May 17th-19th?
Qroach said:
Well, maybe that's true, but I still doubt games like Halo, DOA, Project Gotham Racing or Ninja Gaiden would have sold for their gameplay alone on the Xbox. To me it's clearly the wow factor that lured early adopters first and hardcore gamers later to the Xbox. I don't think Xbox even made a dent into the casual gamer market (which is where difference in graphics doesn't really matter).
Qroach said:
if the xbox hardware was at the same level as the gamecube, is couldn't have run some of it's most remarquable exclusive titles at all, or as least not with the same level of technical quality.
when you look at the software that exists on both plateform (like most of EA games), most of the time the xbox version is more beautiful, and more fluid, it is simply superior to the gamecube version..
when you want to play these games do you want the inferior version ? or the better one ?
and about the game libraries of xbox and gamecube i would say each one has its strengths and its weaknesses. and it seems to be primarly a matter of tastes.
but i agree with you that in the sense that there is a lot of 3rd party titles that are available on xbox and ps2 but not for nintendo, including sequels like burnout 3.. that's a shame.
why this ? i think it could have also something to do with the technical sides of thing: if the developper want to support the gamecube with its smaller capacities, in particular its pathetic amount of RAM, it could compromise its objectives fot the game. and it would be hard for a gamecube-level title to compete with exclusive titles on xbox or PS2.
Yep, something I agree with. Online isn't the most important thing for most people. I think MS's targets, Live!, customizability, HD, are missing the mainstream public. Perhaps it's another Americocentric view, just as XB oozes American product that's marginalised it in other cultures?Xeno said:
In this, though in theory you're right, I kinda disagree. Though Sony have been working on an online infrastructure for a while, I fear chances are they'll make a hash job of it. Look at the PSP video encoding software they've created. Charge $20 for an application that's awkward and produces a small picture instead of one that fills the PSPs screen. The freeware efforts do a better job. Looks like they released PSP without the complete software support for it, adding features as they go. I imagine the same happening with PS online. If PS3 comes with an online service as well thought out and implemented as Live!, I'll be gobsmacked. I expect something more functional, less versatile, and maybe even buggy in places. Nintendo's efforts here are an unknown, as they've never entered this area. But knowing Nintendo's quality values I expect them to produce something impressive one way or another.
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