Who will be the market leader (console sales) at the end of CY2007?

[StefanS]

You said in its first full year, the PS2 sold 18m consoles. Obviously that's not right, worldwide or US only, and that's what I referenced. In its first full year, it shipped 10.61m units. By its second year it was 28.68m units.

What Josh probably means by first full year is the starting with Q3 2000, when the PS2 was released in the last territories, Europe and the rest of the PAL states. Or maybe he was taking the first year's sales from each territory?

Personally, I find either comparison pretty much flawed. It's pretty much a given that Wii's numbers are higher than PS2's, because Nintendo did a worldwide launch. So that comparison is pretty much non-applicable here. As for Josh's artificial first year, that's also a pretty rough comparison: Both versions presented above neglect that due to the global launch Wii was severely supply limited in all territories after the launch which is neglected by the artificial measure (more than the PS2). Moreover, by the time the PS2 launched in the Europe or the US, the brand itself had already built up major steam and thus 3rd party support, etc.

So IMHO it's useless to compare this gen's numbers to the last gen's. It's ok to get some ballpark figures, but that's all you can get from. You can't compare the numbers and logically deduce that Console Y was more successful than Console X, because the circumstances were vastly different.

 

[liolio]

Just want to say that the new arcadeand pro pack will available by november 2 in France.
The arcade wil cost 279 + a 256 MB memory card + 5 live arcade games + hdmi (as rumored)

the pro pack will cost 349euros +hdmi+ forza II + viva pinata

I don't for the other european countries.

But Sony need at least to reach 499euros or I can see them lose market share in a Sonyland (France).

 

[Crossbar]

Here in Sweden you have been able to pick up a 360 Premium pack for half the price of a PS3 ever since the PS3 launch. The prices have gone through the same proportional reductions.

Microsoft is marketing the 360 like crazy in the supermarket flyers, while you hardly see the PS3 mentioned in those flyers.

I really don´t know how well the hardware is selling, the PS3 can't be doing to badly, I was baffled when I saw PS3 titles in the Swedish top 10 charts recently.
I think Sweden is Microsoft-land with regard to Windows which has a massive penetration, and I´ve learnt that we are much more prone to switch to new Windows versions than what the Americans are. I would expect the 360 to be doing well, but I think the software lineup of the original Xbox may still give it a bad rumor and as I see it the current game lineup is still very much aimed at the hardcore gamers and some of the hardcore gamers may stay faithful to the Playstation brand.

Anyways, my impression is that Sony has not seriously started marketing the PS3 as a game console over here yet. I think the fact that the Playstation 3 got the EISAs "Best media center award" is a sign of that Sony may have had a broad marketing focus so far.

http://www.eisa-awards.eu/eisa_awards/node/738

The EISA awards are ranked high in Europe.

The current price point of the PS3 matches that market in my opinion, it will be really interesting to see if it will go through some changes this fall, both with regard to the price point and the marketing efforts.

Regarding the Wii, I have had no problem picking it up in shops since late spring, but it is probably doing very well. From what I hear it has really found a new group of buyers, I think it will be a massive hit this Christmas.

 

[deathkiller]

Totally flawed because you are counting launch aligned WW Wii sales against Japanese launch aligned PS2 sales--when the PS2 wasn't available in most markets. Just look at the US, launch aligned:

PS2, US sales, first 10 months: 6.24M

Your link don't have the sales of the PS2's first 10 months.

 

[Acert93]

Now you're just counting the US?

It is only an example to demonstrate my disagreement with the original comment--and the restriction to NA is simply because I don't have localized numbers for Japan and Europe.

I do have NA numbers for a monthly count (hence the "first 12 months in NA" comparison) as well as WW numbers (hence "first full calendar year" comparison).

Note to self: Solve the sales data solution soon with an archive of all this information made available online. Link coming soon...ish.

I'm talking world wide sales, and as far as this thread has been concerned, it's been world wide sales.

Yes, and the 18.5M (first full calendar year) and the 6.4M numbers (launch) are world wide.

You said in its first full year, the PS2 sold 18m consoles. Obviously that's not right, worldwide or US only, and that's what I referenced. In its first full year, it shipped 10.61m units. By its second year it was 28.68m units.

Well, lets read what I said because I think (correct me if I am wrong) the major thrust of my point may have been missed in my sea of words (note to self: short posts pwn... still working/failing on that one...):

Lets look at territories if you wish, at least launch align each territory. Or keep it simple: First full year sales. The PS2 sold 18.5M units in its first full calendar year.

First full calendar year. So I was right And as I said, your 10.61M number is irrelevant for a sales pace when you are counting the "pace" or rate of territories where said item isn't for sale!

Comparing PS2 sales from March, on a WW basis when it wasn't available WW, is as flawed as this comparison:

Sony launched the PS2 console in 2000; by the end of CY2000 Sony sold 6.4M PS2 consoles.

Nintendo launched the Wii console in 2006; by the end of CY2006 Nintendo sold 4.02M Wii consoles.

You would rightly observe: This is an irrelevant and flawed comparison for *rate of sale* because a) the PS2 was launched much earlier, thus skewing the data and b) the Wii had a global launch.

I made 2 core suggestions (that may also have some issues as Stefan noted) to get around these issues in general if we want to determine "which console is selling fastest":

1) Count months launch aligned. Why? Sony and Nintendo have a disparity in launch dates in various territories. The Wii was a WW launch, the PS2 wasn't. Treating the PS2 as a WW launch and treating it as comparable to the Wii launch is flawed in terms of consumer adoption.

2) Count the first full calendar year. Why? This would absolve any launch data disparity and the typical launch issues, and instead focus on consumer adoption and sales pace for an early, comparable period in each consoles lifespan.

[qoute]Now you're moving the goalposts by linking off to a site talking about US only. [/quote]

At least I have goal posts.

If someone would like to post reliable sales data itemized for monthly sales in all 3 major territories I think it would be interesting.

So IMHO it's useless to compare this gen's numbers to the last gen's.

It may be... unless we are asking the arbitrary question: What is the fastest selling console? A useless question without a reference point of interest...

BUT if we are asking the question, I think the best we can do is try to remove any discrepencies that screw with the numbers -- e.g. the extra long PS2 launch year, WW versus territorial launches, etc.

Measuring each on equal "footing of oppurtunity" is all I was trying to measure.

Shortages, developer support, staying power, etc are all valid concerns, but are also realities not so easily given a quantitative value.

My geneal point was comparing WW numbers of a supply limited console launch to territorial numbers of a supply limited console was a flawed way to look at it. My suggestings may be wrong headed.

But I have yet to hear a good explaination why we should be counting the PS2 launch from March 2000 as if it were a global affair -- when the rest of the world had to wait 7 to 9 months to have access.

Natoma's "12 month" number for the PS2 breaks down as:

12 months Japan
5 months US
3 months Europe

versus

12 months Japan
12 months US
12 months Europe

36 "territory months" versus 20 "territory months".

So I merely suggest we look at the first 12 month sales in each territory from launch. Would that make everyone happy? Seems fair and spin free?

 

[Acert93]

Your link don't have the sales of the PS2's first 10 months.

You know, you are right. I will need to scour for numbers again :|

I just need to start an Excel file from NPD data & such and put it up on my blog. I am going to do it...

 

[TheChefO]

So I merely suggest we look at the first 12 month sales in each territory from launch. Would that make everyone happy? Seems fair and spin free?

Actually it is probably the "fairest" but it still isn't apples to apples.

Manufacturing improves in time and BOM reduces enabling pricedrops.

By launching WW, both MS and N lost sales in certain regions that they could have gained and could have helped generate better momentum in those regions. By focusing all efforts on one region first, shortages will still exist, but majority of the time, it is quickly a non-issue. (see 1st 6 months of xb360 in US and Wii ... even today ... everywhere )

 

[Acert93]

Chef, you just reminded me of all the "360 breaks sales record" at the MS launch. Ultimately it is all about PR unless put in a context.

Right now the important thing for these companies is: How much are they making? Then you have all the other questions like How much mindshare have they grabbed? Are they achieving their axillary goals? Are their software sales good/providing good revenue? Are their partners (publishers) making money? Are they gaining/losing publisher support? What is their holiday prognosis? 2008? Beyond? How have their decisions this generation impacted their future options?

 

[TheChefO]

Chef, you just reminded me of all the "360 breaks sales record" at the MS launch. Ultimately it is all about PR unless put in a context.

Right now the important thing for these companies is: How much are they making? Then you have all the other questions like How much mindshare have they grabbed? Are they achieving their axillary goals? Are their software sales good/providing good revenue? Are their partners (publishers) making money? Are they gaining/losing publisher support? What is their holiday prognosis? 2008? Beyond? How have their decisions this generation impacted their future options?

Good points - agreed.

You know, at this point I'm actually really surprised Wii doesn't have better dev support.

I predicted long ago (falsely ) that dev support would shift from PS3 to Wii after Sony announced price, but it didn't happen and seemingly still isn't happening.

 

[Zaphod]

I predicted long ago (falsely ) that dev support would shift from PS3 to Wii after Sony announced price, but it didn't happen and seemingly still isn't happening.

That doesn't make much sense. We have financial and forward looking statements from studios pointing in the direction that this is happening.

However, it can't be more than six months since those who had predicted that the Wii would be another GC and the PS3 be another PS2 started to have their "holy crap, man were we wrong" moments. As such it should hardly be surprising that any such shift in development funding and manpower hasn't manifested in the marketplace yet.

The momentum of a large software industry simply doesn't turn that fast, and we simply have no Idea what might have been dropped at the early stages for the other consoles with the resources reallocated towards the Wii.

 

[TheChefO]

The momentum of a large software industry simply doesn't turn that fast...

Indeed and I certainly didn't expect a flood of software on Wii at this point to be hitting shelves.

However, I'm not seeing what I would expect at this point which is games in development. Also considering the ease of development and familiarity with the architecture (along with the shorter dev time in comparison to next ge ... errr typical ps3 and xb360 games), we should be seeing something at this point signifying this shift. Last E3 I thought would be an opportune time to at least announce some games in development, but no dice.


As for the "oh crap!" moment, that came as soon as Sony announced price. Devs that didn't shift resources (in some way) back then, weren't thinking clearly.

 

[Zaphod]

However, I'm not seeing what I would expect at this point which is games in development.

Like this?

Also considering the ease of development and familiarity with the architecture (along with the shorter dev time in comparison to next ge ... errr typical ps3 and xb360 games), we should be seeing something at this point signifying this shift. Last E3 I thought would be an opportune time to at least announce some games in development, but no dice.

Way too soon, IMO. Last E3 was the time for the publishers to talk about being impressed with the Wii and looking forward to developing for the platform in the near future. Which may of them did. Even given the shorter development time and cost for the Wii, I wouldn't expect to see any tanglible results (other than quick ports) to manifest earlier than a year after 'the money' decided to give it more attention.

As for the "oh crap!" moment, that came as soon as Sony announced price. Devs that didn't shift resources (in some way) back then, weren't thinking clearly.

If some did, at that time I wouldn't have expected it to benefit Wii.

 

[dobwal]

Indeed and I certainly didn't expect a flood of software on Wii at this point to be hitting shelves.

However, I'm not seeing what I would expect at this point which is games in development. Also considering the ease of development and familiarity with the architecture (along with the shorter dev time in comparison to next ge ... errr typical ps3 and xb360 games), we should be seeing something at this point signifying this shift. Last E3 I thought would be an opportune time to at least announce some games in development, but no dice.


As for the "oh crap!" moment, that came as soon as Sony announced price. Devs that didn't shift resources (in some way) back then, weren't thinking clearly.

Probably because looking at software numbers is more pertinent than hardware numbers for pubs. All the third party sales are coming from the 360 right now even in the face of the large numbers of Wii moving off the shelves.

More pubs are probably looking to go multi platform by going PS3/X360 versus allocating a large amount of their resources toward the Wii.

This is relative to the US and Europe and not japan.

 

[TheChefO]

Probably because looking at software numbers is more pertinent than hardware numbers for pubs. All the third party sales are coming from the 360 right now even in the face of the large numbers of Wii moving off the shelves.

More pubs are probably looking to go multi platform by going PS3/X360 versus allocating a large amount of their resources toward the Wii.

This is relative to the US and Europe and not japan.

Interesting.

Still with the momentum Wii has, I'd figure assigning a small team to cranking out Wii games would be a no brainer at this point.

I suppose it is a drastic enough change for most devs as is. Majority are used to cruising along on ps2 for years without considering XB or GC. This gen things are so different I suppose even the ps3/xb360 split is a lot for them to handle without introducing a completely different devkit to the situation with game types and ideas which are completely foreign to development they've done for the past decade or so.

 

[TheChefO]

Like this?

Interesting. Didn't know they were bringing that franchise to Wii.

Way too soon, IMO. Last E3 was the time for the publishers to talk about being impressed with the Wii and looking forward to developing for the platform in the near future. Which may of them did. Even given the shorter development time and cost for the Wii, I wouldn't expect to see any tanglible results (other than quick ports) to manifest earlier than a year after 'the money' decided to give it more attention.
If some did, at that time I wouldn't have expected it to benefit Wii.

From what I've heard, switching platforms midway through a game can take place fairly rapidly.

I'm not expecting any dev at this point to put their best efforts out on Wii or drop their other support, but what little support has been shown with how consistantly strong the console has been selling to date is a bit odd.

 

[Zaphod]

From what I've heard, switching platforms midway through a game can take place fairly rapidly.

From a' to b' where both have similar capabilities, perhaps, but I don't think it's likely from a' or b' to c' when the latter is significantly different.

A resource shift would be more likely to halt or cancel products in early development from a' and b', not to attempt to squeeze them into c'.

I'd first expect to see quick-and-dirty ports to c' from d' and e', then announcements of properties well underway for a' and/or b' also being available for c' (some synergies and saved time), and finally entirely new stuff (next summer onwards).

 

[TheChefO]

From a' to b' where both have similar capabilities, perhaps, but I don't think it's likely from a' or b' to c' when the latter is significantly different.

A resource shift would be more likely to halt or cancel products in early development from a' and b', not to attempt to squeeze them into c'.

I'd first expect to see quick-and-dirty ports to c' from d' and e', then announcements of properties well underway for a' and/or b' also being available for c' (some synergies and saved time), and finally entirely new stuff (next summer onwards).

Exactly.

I'd expect roughly the same.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

However, I'm not seeing what I would expect at this point which is games in development.

Is that because they're not being made, or because they're not headlining gaming sites? PS2 had n thousand titles, and most of them I'd never even heard of. They weren't announced as being in development, I guess because hardcore gaming sites didn't consider them terribly interesting. TGS this year with platform rosters is where you'll see if they're being made or not. The only thing I find odd is that the PS3 is still getting non-1st-party exclusives, not just releasing now but in development for some time down the road. Some folk have faith in the platform yet.

 

[TheChefO]

Is that because they're not being made, or because they're not headlining gaming sites? PS2 had n thousand titles, and most of them I'd never even heard of. They weren't announced as being in development, I guess because hardcore gaming sites didn't consider them terribly interesting. TGS this year with platform rosters is where you'll see if they're being made or not. The only thing I find odd is that the PS3 is still getting non-1st-party exclusives, not just releasing now but in development for some time down the road. Some folk have faith in the platform yet.

Good points on both.

Perhaps there are many more titles in development for Wii which aren't getting press.

I'm quite surprised with the level of ps3 exclusives at this point as well.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Perhaps there are many more titles in development for Wii which aren't getting press.

I'm sure there are, given the number of studios that have said they're producing stuff. They just haven't shown anything yet. I do wonder what they're producing though. Seems party games are still common, at least on what's announced that I hear. 'Meaty' titles like Zelda, Red Steel, and Metroid, seem few and far between.