When will the next generation start?

[Alkohallick]

Just think of the early adopters of consoles. They bought a 360 in 2005, they bought a ps3 in 2006. Now its 2012 , 2013 and not a new system in sight. What are they going to buy ? When now you have a decade of performance enhancments going on in pc land that the consoles have seen none of. Radeon 58x0 class hardare will be dirt cheap in 2012 and will blow away any console. By 2012 dx 10 will be the api coded for and not dx9. PCs will take another leap foward in tech .

The longer consoles wait to upgrade the worse it will be and pcs will offer experiances that consoles simply can't like eyeinfinty and 3d surround .

This isn't the year 2000 either. You can build a quad core pc with 4-8 gigs of ram a 1tb hardrive and a radeon 5850 for $800

Most of your post is based off of the thought that all console gamers want is grafixxx. In a way I agree because that seems to be all the teens talk about but thats because everything else just works. The network, either psn or xbl connects them to their e-friends, shows their trophies/gamerscore, lets them jump into games with said friends, all with a controller that most are more comfortable using. I agree that now you can put together a gaming rig that will blow the present consoles out of the water for cheap but i honestly don't think thats what the majority really want (well yes they do albeit just from a console not a pc)

just my .02 nothing personal:smile:

 

[liolio]

I can't see a reason why they haven't backed Wii either, but they havem't. I guess it depends on their perception. If publihsers feel the core gamers won't abandon PS360, the core games won't be made for Nintedo's next machine. And if the core games aren't made, the core gamers won't migrate. It's a self-fulfiling prophecy, but true of every new hardware launch. eg. Talk of a new Sega console - who would write games for it? Or an Apple console. Or Google. Hardware needs games, which needs publisher support, which needs them to be convinced the hardware is a viable concern. Even if Nintendo have a worthwhile box, I feel (pretty unjustified though I admit!) that they'll need to work to convince publishers to create core franchises like COD that make something of it instead of just porting their PS360 works. Whereas a new MS or Sony console I'm sure will have the backing from Day 1 for significant titles as they are 'serious' consoles for 'serious' gamers.

At first I think editors were mostly surprised by Wii success then they came to the realization that graphic sucked too much to attract hardcore gamers. On top of that the Wii is so easily piratable that the hardcore crown may not have spend that much money in games. Looking forward Nintendo success would have a lot to do with the hardware potential. The hardcore gamers won't care that much for the product positioning (ie Nintendo communication continue to focus on casual audience) they will know what the product offer what the use they intend to do with it. whatever extra functionalities the system provide will come as a bonus. It would not take the bastard child of a super computer on chip a hair-drying and iron-man like fusion reactor to put actual systems to shame, who knows they may even get middle-ware vendors support (crytech for example is a bit late to the party this gen).
Anyway I don't think that Nintendo has intensive to move before 2012. If they move to early costumers will feel betrayed but if Natal and Move meet success it may ease the move. If they do (properly) I think editors would support the system. (In regard to sega Nintendo has nothing to do with Sega whether it's software or hardware);

Personally I don't mind a longer wait. My most anticipated game of this generation is Snowblind Studios latest, which isn't due until 2011! I'll then appreciate a sequel in 2012. We've had nothing from Team ICO yet. Haven't had a single GT yet! Then there's the motion controls, which'll be smelly old first-gen titles for the first year, and then maybe some decent ones the year after. This generation is far from over. I think it's only looking long in the tooth for those who have decent spec PCs, much like last gen. I was happy playing PS2 titles even when PCs were capable of much better, because the games I liked weren't being made to high quality on PC (CON looked better on PS2 than Dungeon Seige did on a more powerful PC).

Well I can wait but I also know that I won't buy new systems at launch so... I grow old you know
OT
For the bold part, studio quality aside this a proof that the course for higher resolutions while it sell tv may not be in the best interest of gamers . There was a discussion on that matter some time, now my 360 is hooked to my 1080p since more than two weeks and it really made me realize that actual hardware are dated. I would have preferred if Ms as Nintendo did not pushed 720p for the 360 but from a businessman pov...
/OT

And another upside is that developers find the best approaches in the closed hardware world of consoles. MLAA is just making an appearance, on consoles rather than PC where the hardware is expected to handle MSAA and you just need Moooore Power! to get better IQ. Consoles need smarter coding to get better IQ, which leads to better use of hardware overall and into tthe next generation. Devs have had some years coming to grips with the machines. Now it's time to really dig and explore and find novel methods that improve the intellectual base of game techs (which can of course feed back to non-gaming computer applications).

Still not all the studios are made equal, I can only wonder about what top studios would do with a reasonable system made out of commodity parts

Spoiler

say a new i5 (2 cores+smt) class CPU, a HD5670 class GPU one and 1GB of GDDR5

.

 

[eastmen]

Most of your post is based off of the thought that all console gamers want is grafixxx. In a way I agree because that seems to be all the teens talk about but thats because everything else just works. The network, either psn or xbl connects them to their e-friends, shows their trophies/gamerscore, lets them jump into games with said friends, all with a controller that most are more comfortable using. I agree that now you can put together a gaming rig that will blow the present consoles out of the water for cheap but i honestly don't think thats what the majority really want (well yes they do albeit just from a console not a pc)

just my .02 nothing personal:smile:

Na , I base it off the fact taht there is a very hardcore group of gamers who want new systems and after 7 years they will be more than ready to jump to a new platform. Sony and MS both sold expensive systems and can do so again. The new hardware isn't just about graphics , its about experiances that haven't been had before or improving current experiances.

 

[Arwin]

There is definitely room for improvement for next-gen hardware, but it is a difficult time for introducing it right now. There are too many uncertain factors that make it very difficult to decide what kind of investments and trade-offs need to be made.

There is:
- 3D Controls
- 3D Display
- a tonne of different online services present and/or emerging
- OS and embedded developments related to the above online services (think Android, Windows Phone OS, etc., with their related software distribution platforms)

3D tvs are being introduced this year. Move is coming this year, and Natal likely as well. I think it will take two years to see how most of these developments will trend out. Taking that into account, I think either Sony and Microsoft both design two completely different consoles, focussed on two different approaches, and then at the end of those two years decide to run with either the one or the other.

Finally, publishers don't seem to be dying to get new hardware to play with, as the new multi-threaded rendering pipelines and dx11 haven't settled yet in the PC space, and consoles still have a little room for growth and experimentation (though limits are definitely being hit, maybe a little more on the 360 which perhaps is reaching its maximum potential a little sooner).

Another tough decision is whether or not next-gen will be a good time for massive multicore. That is going to be a tough choice, but an interesting one, especially in the context of that the importance of running cool and being cheap may be bigger than ever. Certainly I want to bet that Sony is going to set an upper limit for itself of 399$ out of the gate, with good prospects on going down to 299$ after 1-2 years, max.

However, I do think it shouldn't be more than two years before at least the publishers get their hands on new hardware and/or tools. Perhaps this time it could be a good idea to get publishers in on the new stuff a little sooner and allow them to work with finished hardware for a year before the actual consoles are released.

For both Microsoft and Sony, I think an important part of the strategy will be to determine what to do with the existing userbase. If Microsoft wants to approach the casual space with Natal, I don't think they can get away with killing off the 360 in the way they did with the original Xbox at the release of the 360. But running two services at the same time isn't great either.

This isn't much different for Sony. Presumably, they will both be upgrading their service and upgrade the existing services on the old consoles so that the current gen consoles run on the same network with limited functionality. It shouldn't be too big of a problem considering that they will both be having a platform that spans from handheld to console, to phone and even TV, but it may still be complicated - what if Sony wants to go Android, for instance? Can they afford to put Android on the PS3 as well as the PS4? Most likely it would be much cheaper to do that on the PS4 with new and more powerful hardware, less backward compatibility to consider perhaps, and so on.

Above all though it is not unlikely that the hardware will be the least consideration. This is the lesson that Wii gave them, and Apple is giving them all over again. They will need to think about what they want to provide their consumers with, and what they want to sell them, and design the hardware for that, rather than just design really cool hardware and see what cool things third parties will do with it.

 

[Svensk Viking]

I just can't see the whole 3D thing taking place so soon...People have just upgraded to HDTVs, and according to Mark Rein, more than half the users playing Gears 2 do so on SDTV

 

[corduroygt]

Na , I base it off the fact taht there is a very hardcore group of gamers who want new systems and after 7 years they will be more than ready to jump to a new platform. Sony and MS both sold expensive systems and can do so again. The new hardware isn't just about graphics , its about experiances that haven't been had before or improving current experiances.

That hardcore group isn't very big and doesn't buy many games. On the other hand the console crowd aren't leaving their living room couch and their controller in their hand to go back to their PC's with a mouse/keyboard and mess with graphics settings, drivers, etc. High-end PC gaming has been dying for a while and it should (hopefully) be completely dead by next gen, as in all the games except maybe some indies should be console ports.

The hardcore group wants their Halo, Gears, Uncharted, GoW, Killzone, GT5 games, and they're not going to find them on the PC either. Even multiplats like Red Dead Redemption have no PC version. It's simply not worth it to develop big budget games for PCs anymore.

In 2013, when no new systems are out, people will still be buying their favorite games on consoles. Maybe MMO's will come to consoles. Or people will be still enjoying new games with motion controls and 3D.

Pirates have effectively destroyed the PC gaming community. Serves them right.

 

[eastmen]

That hardcore group isn't very big and doesn't buy many games. On the other hand the console crowd aren't leaving their living room couch and their controller in their hand to go back to their PC's with a mouse/keyboard and mess with graphics settings, drivers, etc. High-end PC gaming has been dying for a while and it should (hopefully) be completely dead by next gen, as in all the games except maybe some indies should be console ports.

You really don't think the hardcore group doesn't buy alot of games ? WTF dude , they buy the most games and will continue to buy many games over a generation. There is also a few million of them who will buy an expensive console the first year or two of its existance. Hopefully pc gaming never dies esp the high end because then consoles will die , who is going to continue to invest large sums of money into graphics chips if pc gamers don't buy each new generation.

The hardcore group wants their Halo, Gears, Uncharted, GoW, Killzone, GT5 games, and they're not going to find them on the PC either. Even multiplats like Red Dead Redemption have no PC version. It's simply not worth it to develop big budget games for PCs anymore.

On steam alone you have a 25M installed base which is roughly the size of the ps3's ww install base. I don't see why there is no room for big budget games. They just have to offer them only through steam and other clients like it to reduce piracy.

In 2013, when no new systems are out, people will still be buying their favorite games on consoles. Maybe MMO's will come to consoles. Or people will be still enjoying new games with motion controls and 3D.

3D will take half of the consoles resources which are already pretty limited compared to modern hardware . 2013 would mark 8 years of the 360s life btw. MMO's will not come to consoles and if any do make it they will be limited in scope and just be MO's. Current console do't have the power to run a massive online game. Its why Champions online and Age of conan limited the amount of peple in the zones to 50.

Pirates have effectively destroyed the PC gaming community. Serves them right.

and piracy can be stoped if the target it right.

 

[corduroygt]

You really don't think the hardcore group doesn't buy alot of games ? WTF dude , they buy the most games and will continue to buy many games over a generation.

Not on PC. Crysis sold 86k in its NPD debut. It did then go on to sell a million copies worldwide but at the time COD4 was breaking multimillion unit sales records on consoles, along with other games. Piracy is so easy on a PC, it almost always compels people to pirate, especially in poorer countries around the world. Crytek wisened up and now it's on consoles like everything else. Don't be surprised if C3 becomes console only.

The hardcore gamers are too accustomed to headsets, controllers, surround sound and HDTV's. They are not going back to mouse/kb. The hardcore of this generation aren't PC gamers.

On steam alone you have a 25M installed base which is roughly the size of the ps3's ww install base. I don't see why there is no room for big budget games. They just have to offer them only through steam and other clients like it to reduce piracy.

Anyone with a PC can sign in to steam, it's free. That 25M is not like 25M PS3 install base where the main function of the PS3 is to play games, where it's just another program on a PC. Also it's impossible to reduce piracy on PC unless it's severely locked down like a console. All steam games get pirated within a week of release, even stuff that uses a server for validation, like Ubisoft, gets cracked quickly. The vast capabilities of a PC mean that piracy will NEVER go away on that platform. As I said, all that's coming to the PC is console ports and sloppy seconds like GTA4 by the time next-gen starts.

3D will take half of the consoles resources which are already pretty limited compared to modern hardware . 2013 would mark 8 years of the 360s life btw. MMO's will not come to consoles and if any do make it they will be limited in scope and just be MO's. Current console do't have the power to run a massive online game. Its why Champions online and Age of conan limited the amount of peple in the zones to 50.

Home fits a few hundred people in a zone just fine, I'm sure they can do it on the 360 since it's not lacking in memory. GOW2 came 7 years into the PS2 lifespan and it was great. Limited resources will be fine in getting people used to 3D. Glasses and eye strain are much worse handicaps than reduced graphics fidelity for 3D adoption.

and piracy can be stoped if the target it right.

No it can't be stopped on the PC. Even the mighty resources of Microsoft can't stop people from pirating Windows. Piracy will never stop in the PC, and there will not be big budget PC exclusives any more. Doesn't matter if you can get a six core cpu and a gtx480 for $200, there still won't be anyone making uncharted 2 quality games on it.

 

[thop]

This isn't a thread about PC or piracy, and certainly not about PC piracy.

 

[flynn]

The hardcore gamers are too accustomed to headsets, controllers, surround sound and HDTV's. They are not going back to mouse/kb. The hardcore of this generation aren't PC gamers.

Interesting comment. It was my impression that it was mostly PC owners who considered themselves hardcore gamers, whatever that means.

So, do you think if next gen finally delivers solid 1080p/60 more PC gamers will move to consoles? I'm thinking about those who always complain about low-res textures and lack of AA.

 

[Squilliam]

I wonder still whether Nintendo would be better off releasing in 2011 than later. If they take longer then it gives both Microsoft and Sony time to build momentum with their new interfaces whereas a new console presents new opportunities for them to capture third party attention away from the current DX9 consoles and to present their own DX11+ console whilst taking advantage of some of their interface parity with the mouse and extend the bredth of their library/offerings.

Its not just about the core offerings that the present large publishers can offer. Its also about the smaller independant games and the other middle sized developers offering much more than traditional game content. A new console would enable them to take advantage of games like educational software which as a sector I believe outstrips the revenue of console gaming quite considerably but has been waiting for a truely compelling piece of educational software to break the shackles of mediocraty in this segment.

Finally being a first mover is of greatest advantage to them. Im sure the developers/publishers of this world are itching to get their hands on next generation Nintendo hardware and unlike the other two theirs has the greatest expections for success coming into a new generation just as the PS2 had this advantage in the last generation. They don't have as large a hurdle to cross in terms of absolute performance increases. If they had even 2-3* the realisable performance of the Xbox 360 it would be enough for a significant upgrade on the Wii's capabilities. They will be able to dictate the standards of the next generation of software development on their terms which would be of great benefit to them as much as it has benefited Microsoft this generation from doing the same.

 

[MfA]

I don't think PC gaming is coming back any time soon

Where did it go?

I still say Valve should start selling locked down boxes to run Steam PC games ... just add virtualized environments for personal computing (so users can't fuck up the environment which runs the games), a boot prom on ethernet controller (to allow them to patch/update the system without booting windows), and a specialized Steam section for quality games (for which they have done their own quality assurance to make sure there are no problems with things like wide screen output and they have problem free support for game pad control).

 

[eastmen]

Where did it go?

I still say Valve should start selling locked down boxes to run Steam PC games ... just add virtualized environments for personal computing (so users can't fuck up the environment which runs the games), a boot prom on ethernet controller (to allow them to patch/update the system without booting windows), and a specialized Steam section for quality games (for which they have done their own quality assurance to make sure there are no problems with things like wide screen output and they have problem free support for game pad control).

I think your going to see a huge shift happen .

You have apple with its ipod , iphone , ipad and mac . All they need to do is make the app store work on all of these (as they are already doing for at least the i stuff) and a buy once play on any mentality.

Steam is doing this now with its steam client when you buy a valve pc game it works on the mac verison of steam.

MS is likely going to do this through xna with its zune , win 7 phone , xbox and hopefully windows 7.

I think if esp ms does this and allows you to buy Crysis 3 on the 360 but since you own the liscense you can also play it on your pc , pc gaming will take off again. Or play shadow complex 3 on your xbox , go on your phone and play it there (or tablet ) from the spot you left off on and then get to your house and jump on your pc and play it there.


PCs are just evolving to better experiances. I tried eyeinfinty and I simply can't go back. I hate playing on my xbox 360 and ps3 now with the 1 tv and I'm waiting for a dell coupon to make my rig eye infinty.

 

[Arwin]

I just can't see the whole 3D thing taking place so soon...People have just upgraded to HDTVs, and according to Mark Rein, more than half the users playing Gears 2 do so on SDTV

You are definitely right about this, but the uncertain factor is actually twofold:
1. what do I need to do with my console hardware to make support for 3D more efficient? One way of finding this out is working with the tech on existing consoles and discover what you run into. For instance, Sony is discovering that quality AA is much more important for 3D than, say, native resolution. This can inform hardware and software design for the next-gen console.
2. HD TV sales, despite not being all-encompassing just yet, have been important for TV makers - without them, probably TV sales would have been much, much worse. They will definitely be looking at anything that can stimulate people to replace their TVs again before they actually break. 3D is a technology that offers a much bigger visual impact than HD tvs have done for many users, at least initially (not everyone sees the difference right away, or has regular access to source material that makes full use of it). The direct emotional impact of watching 3D TV has a much, much bigger impact, and with 3D being very successful in cinema's, the audience is primed for it.

However, one thing that drove HD TV sales is that LCD screens are simply much smaller than CRT tvs. This has definitely been a big factor in adoption rate, so that is a disadvantage that 3D has, along with relying on having to wear glasses.

Additionally, for games in particular, there is also a synergy coming up with Motion controls. The combination of 3D vision and 3D controls has a potential of being a very intense experience.

As with everything, how quick take-up of these technologies will be is hard to predict, and it is also a chicken/egg story - if Sony and Microsoft start supporting it full-on in their games that will certainly help drive sales also.

As for PC, it tends to become more popular again with the hardcore as the console generation ages. Despite all the piracy discussion, I have little reason to believe this generation will be much different in that regard (although it will be a little different, with the general bias shifting towards consoles, PC gaming is still moving back up and you can hear an increasing group of hardcore players say the words 'this game is so much better on PC').

 

[rpg.314]

I still say Valve should start selling locked down boxes to run Steam PC games ...

You reckon MS will be happy to let them do this?

 

[MfA]

Happy no, but anti-trust laws would not allow them to treat them any differently than any other large system seller ... or in other words, they could get Windows for Windows Tax prices.

 

[corduroygt]

Where did it go?

I still say Valve should start selling locked down boxes to run Steam PC games ... just add virtualized environments for personal computing (so users can't fuck up the environment which runs the games), a boot prom on ethernet controller (to allow them to patch/update the system without booting windows), and a specialized Steam section for quality games (for which they have done their own quality assurance to make sure there are no problems with things like wide screen output and they have problem free support for game pad control).

What would the Valve box use for OS and API? Linux and openGL? I don't know if you can lock down windows to that level without having access to the source code, and MS surely won't give access to that.

 

[corduroygt]

I'm thinking about those who always complain about low-res textures and lack of AA.

Well for those people who can't enjoy a game and complain about that stuff, I pray god have mercy on their souls

We're at a dead end with resolution, 1080p will be it and higher resolutions won't really become standard. Eyefinity won't become standard because borders suck. Higher resolutions are just pushing human limits of vision too far to become standard.

 

[MfA]

Locking it down really isn't that hard ... there's only a limited number of ways to get focus away from a program and access Windows directly and you can quite easily block all of them.

PS. it's not locked down to prevent piracy or anything, just to keep the UI idiot proof ... hardware hacking can get around it, but it doesn't matter.

 

[Rangers]

I just can't see the whole 3D thing taking place so soon...People have just upgraded to HDTVs, and according to Mark Rein, more than half the users playing Gears 2 do so on SDTV

I agree. I just bought a 42" HDTV fairly recently, for around 600 dollars (my first "big screen"), and as you can imagine I'm not really in the mood to upgrade again for a good 2-3 years. That's assuming 3DTV's get down that low in price that rapidly, where I can get a similar set for under a thousand!

By that time the gen will be over, or close.

But if we're talking about next gen, well there was a rumor Microsoft's next console is based around 3D. Nothing but a slim rumor though.

Then there's the fact I still think there's a general questioning among the public whether 3D is "worth it" at all, or more of a fad. I dont think it's a slam dunk technology.