Who will be the market leader next generation?

[Pozer]

I think it'd be good if posters said where they're stationed/living. Of those saying XB360 could do really well in the US, how many live there? Reason I ask is wondering how geographic distribution affects perceptions.

In the UK I just look at figures, see PS2 outsells XB 4:1 everywhere (except Japan ) and would expect similar next-gen when all PS2 owners upgrade. Why in the US will PS2 owners get XB360 instead, when it's not 'da PlayStation'? Maybe in the US XB gets some limelight, but here it's just a games machine, not a cultural icon. Go into any Game store and it's all PS2 and PC titles, with GC and XB shunted to the back. Is that different elsewhere?

Actually, ps2 doesnt outsell xbox 4-1 in US and the the North American market is still the biggest slice of the pie. Europe is close but locilization costs make it less appealing. Japan is still the third largest market. Xbox has steadily gained in North America because it has a reputation of being superior technology and everyone that ever wanted a ps2 already owns one.

ps2/ Xbox/ GC
August 2004- 211,690/ 216,911/ 108,953
September 2004- 253,295/ 265,067/ 114,789
October 2004- 289,000/ 217,000/ 110,000
November 2004- 694,000/ 708,000/ 350,000
December 2004- 989,000/ 1,044,000/ 814,000
January 2005- 490,002/ 242,375/ 112,327

 

[BOOMEXPLODE]

I think Sony will still be dominant next-gen, but probably losing a little bit more market share to MS. Definitely still dominant though. Nothing much is known about revolution, so it's hard to say how it will do. Atleast as well as Gamecube I'd say, but that's not saying much. Nintendo will probably lose significant market share in the portable space though, mostly because of PSP.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

*mmmmm, numbers!*

So XB's actually level-pegging at 1:1 now, huh? Guess they have a major mindshare then, which suggests they'll carry this into next-gen.

Is there anywhere in the world that has numbers on consoles owned, not sold? Can we see results from a poll for example of how many/what consoles do you own? How many XB owners also have a PS2, have many have it as there only console?

 

[Magnum PI]

if the next xbox has no technical edge over the next playstation i don't see it gaining marketshare. (how well the current xbox would have done if it was not technically superior to the PS2 ?)

i don't know for nintendo, could be better, could be worse..

i suppose sony will lead.

 

[Qroach]

Xbox sales had nothing to do with the hardware specs, just like PS2 sales had nothing to do with the hardware specs. It was the games. It is the games, and it always will be the games.

If xbox 2 has the games people want, they will buy it. If it doesn't they won't buy it. It's as simple or complicated as you'd want it to be.

 

[Phil]

Xbox sales had nothing to do with the hardware specs, just like PS2 sales had nothing to do with the hardware specs. It was the games. It is the games, and it always will be the games.

I think you're looking at things from a very narrow minded point of view IMO. There are many people that equate better technology/hardware with better games resulting in the better gaming experience.

 

[Qroach]

I think you're looking at things from a very narrow minded point of view IMO. There are many people that equate better technology/hardware with better games resulting in the better gaming experience.

Narrow? no. PS2 proved what you just said wrong essentially. it wasn't the better hardware when compared to xbox, but people kept buying ps2, even when it was a higher price. why? the games!

I'm simply not ignoring the obvious reason that drives console sales. Sure there are tech heads that buy a console based on specs, however that is an extremely miniscule portion of the market. IMO buying a console based on the specs is a waste of time. You buy it if it has or you expect certain games to come to it.

Do you really think PS2 killed the dreamcast based on the specs? I once thought that but realized I was failing to look at the bigger picture. I now think it was the fact PS2 had or was going to get more games that people wanted compared to the dreamcast. (such as EA sports titles)

Software is what makes a platform like game console successfull. Look at it this way. How well do you think PS3 will sell over xbox360 if it launches with 4 games and those are the only titles it has for say 3 or 4 months? If it's sitting next to xbox 360 and it has 20 or 30 games, i bet you the PS3 wouldn't sell nearly as many units. same thing if you reversed the situation, and infact that litereally happend with xbox. The only difference was Xbox had 15 ames and PS2 250 - 300.

I've seen many people go into a place that sold games and ask, "which system is better?". Some sales people would just say "ps2" without a doubt, others would say "the graphics can be better on xbox and it has great online but PS2 has more games, the online is free, and wider variety", and some would say "what type of games do you like?"

For anyone that just says "PS2", all you have to do is ask "why?" and if the reason isn't about games, I'd be damned suprised.

 

[Magnum PI]

yes i know some people, not people like you and me, the kind of people we call "casual gamers".

when making their choice they want the best console = the most powerful one, and they can't understand why i chose the vastly inferior gamecube, they think i'm stupid.

and you not need to be lurking in specialised forums like this one to know which console is most powerful, given all the hype microsoft made about xbox technical features (like sony do with their consoles).

why do you think manufacturer brag so much about the technical performance of their console, unless they think consumers were not sensible to these argument.

 

[MechanizedDeath]

Actually, ps2 doesnt outsell xbox 4-1 in US and the the North American market is still the biggest slice of the pie. Europe is close but locilization costs make it less appealing. Japan is still the third largest market. Xbox has steadily gained in North America because it has a reputation of being superior technology and everyone that ever wanted a ps2 already owns one.

ps2/ Xbox/ GC
August 2004- 211,690/ 216,911/ 108,953
September 2004- 253,295/ 265,067/ 114,789
October 2004- 289,000/ 217,000/ 110,000
November 2004- 694,000/ 708,000/ 350,000
December 2004- 989,000/ 1,044,000/ 814,000
January 2005- 490,002/ 242,375/ 112,327

The PS2 has outsold the Xbox 3:1 LTD in NA. That block of time you listed is when the PS2 had shipment shortages. The Xbox didn't catch up, the PS2 just undersold. And the last two months now the PS2 has gone back to outselling the other two combined. MS has definitely built some mindshare over time, but looking at the userbase, (half that of the N64), is it really any bigger than Nintendo's? PEACE.

 

[Iron Tiger]

I think next gen, Nintendo will be the most profitable, regardless of who sold the most units. Their business model puts profit as the number 1 priority. They can only make Pokemon games all next gen, alienating most adults, but they'll still have Pokemon movies, and cards, and every other tie-in to sell to the kids and rake in the dough. I don't believe that is their plan for the next generation, but it could work if they so desired to do that, and they'd be able to come back again with new hardware for 2010/11. Being 3rd in sales or mindshare doesn't hurt them at all, so don't expect them to drop out, just because they've lost you as a customer. I'm anxious to know what the Revolution is all about, so I can make a guess as to where they'll end up in sales.

 

[Phil]

I am still waiting to see how profitable their console business is.... I can't believe it is, not in the quantities they've sold their hardware. The handheld business has been a big factor - yes. the console business - I sincerely doubt so.

 

[jvd]

Look I'm going to say this one time on the xbox 360 and the ps3 .

Old numbers mean nothing . This is a new generation and everything is diffrent .

IN the usa the xbox 360 may have as much as a year advantage and you can bet alot of the publishers will be making games for it as it will be a next gen system and less games will be on it and it is easier to set yourself apart .

In this year time alot of things can happen . x360 can have a few killer apps . Perfect dark zero can be big the new rpg by bioware due out in the first year can be big . The visual leap of the new sports games can be a big driving factor. The high quality pc ports can bring in gamers .


This will be a huge advantage over the ps3 as it will be ms this time with the established library . And if the rumors are true and its launching before march in japan next year then it could only have a 6 month advantage on hardware .


Now some of these are ifs . But this is the way it is currently shaping up and I dont doubt that anyone here will argue that the x360 will have more games out than the ps3 at the ps3 launch .


Now I highly doubt the x360 will over take the ps3 in overall sales . But i would think it will eat heavly into the ps3 sales and we might see x360 at 50+ units , the ps3 at a 100+ units and the ns5 at 20+ units .

I really do think ms will be a better rival this time around and it does look like they are striking a good balance between power and games

 

[Pozer]

Actually, ps2 doesnt outsell xbox 4-1 in US and the the North American market is still the biggest slice of the pie. Europe is close but locilization costs make it less appealing. Japan is still the third largest market. Xbox has steadily gained in North America because it has a reputation of being superior technology and everyone that ever wanted a ps2 already owns one.

ps2/ Xbox/ GC
August 2004- 211,690/ 216,911/ 108,953
September 2004- 253,295/ 265,067/ 114,789
October 2004- 289,000/ 217,000/ 110,000
November 2004- 694,000/ 708,000/ 350,000
December 2004- 989,000/ 1,044,000/ 814,000
January 2005- 490,002/ 242,375/ 112,327

The PS2 has outsold the Xbox 3:1 LTD in NA. That block of time you listed is when the PS2 had shipment shortages. The Xbox didn't catch up, the PS2 just undersold. And the last two months now the PS2 has gone back to outselling the other two combined. MS has definitely built some mindshare over time, but looking at the userbase, (half that of the N64), is it really any bigger than Nintendo's? PEACE.

Shortages during the Holiday season doesn't sound like very good business planning no wonder they replaced their CEO.

 

[BigGamer X]

I think Sony will win in every territory. But in the U.S. I expect MS to narrow the gap compared to this gen.

 

[TTP]

Xbox got 2nd thanks to its more powerful technology. People just bought it 'cos it had "better graphics". Still, PS2 had the best software line-up this gen and managed to stay in 1st place.

Coming next gen, Xbox 360 is gonna get crushed by PS3 superior hardware + superior software lineup + (hopefully) better online support.

Graphics-whore Tecmo will go PS3 crazy, GTA-next will sell billions of PS3, GT5 will make people dance naked on the streets and that will end the console war for real.

Short version: PS2-Dreamcast history repeating

 

[Brimstone]

If any game is to propel the XB-360 ahead of the PS3, it will be Shadowrun. Can Microsoft take advantage of the hybrid cyberpunk fantasty universe and craft a great game? If they can pull it off, Shadowrun on the XB-360 could replicate the impact of Halo.

 

[one]

Another analyst babble, but hey.
http://www.gamespot.com/news/2005/04/29/news_6123335.html

Analyst: Next-gen growth starts with PS3, no sooner

In a memo assessing the year in gaming so far, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter cautions against viewing the expected fall release of Microsoft's next console as the beginning of the measurable growth in the next-generation cycle.

"We believe that market perception will cause entertainment software stocks to fluctuate within a narrow range until there is better visibility into software demand," Pachter wrote in his memo. "We think that many investors have misinterpreted the launch of the Xbox 360 as the beginning of the next generation, and expect rapid sales growth in 2006. In contrast, we expect the launch of Sony's PS3 (expected in late 2006) to mark the beginning of the next cycle, and think that rapid sales growth will not materialize until 2007."

This means that the early next-generation sales growth many investors are expecting at the beginning of next year won't materialize as gamers hold off on purchases in anticipation of the PlayStation 3 launch.

 

[Sandwich]

I cannot imagine Sony losing share to MS in japan. not going to happen. MS will remain a marginal player in Japan. People will simply not buy an american console.

In the US, MS would really have to screw up if not increasing their marketshare at the expense of Sony and nintendo. MS has a 6 month lead on their home turf.

Europe is the only market that is hard to predict.

 

[j^aws]

Who will be the market leader next generation?

PS3

I'll keep it simple. The prospect of the platform that has the MOST games available (including PS1 and PS2 games) AND the most powerfull platform would be hard to beat. Especially if Sony has addressed any weaknesses from this gen. Developers, publishers, retail and gamers would continue to embrace it, IMHO...

 

[BOOMEXPLODE]

Yeah MS would have to make MAJOR improvements in getting support from Japanese developers to make any kind of dent in Japan, and so far they haven't shown the willingness to do so.