Who will be the market leader next generation?

[Ty]

Simple enough poll - <Don't participate if you're going to troll>

I'm curious as to the expectations of the hardcore gamer - and no, I refuse to acknowledge the Phantom.

Just tell me why you believe what you do.



FWIW, I have a feeling that MS will gain huge ground with Sony giving up that ground. Nintendo I'm thinking will go no where and that's good and bad. But at the end of the day, MS up, Sony down but I don't think it will mean that MS will sell more than the PS3.

My reasons are that MS is first out of the gate with a large headstart and Sony still seems to be figuring out what their plans are.

 

[Fox5]

Worldwide I say Sony easily, but microsoft may take/tie 1st place in the US and have a comfortable second place over nintendo in europe.

 

[pc999]

I hope that every one get 1/3 of the market.

We would (probably) see some of the best moves (price, exclusive games...), from them to get the 1ª.

We would really benefict from those moves.

 

[Fox5]

I hope that every one get 1/3 of the market.

We would (probably) see some of the best moves (price, exclusive games...), from them to get the 1ª.

We would really benefict from those moves.

I don't think Sony could support themselves with only 1/3rd of the market place, that would basically be a failure for them that they may not be able to take.(certainly I don't think sony could handle xbox like loses like microsoft did)

 

[EndR]

I have to go with what Fox5 said.
Sony will be the leader again but MS will have narrowed the gap. The US market is a market that MS kan take with some effort. EU and Japan are still very much Playstation-land.

The most important thing is, that the gap will be smaller and this will make the next next generation pretty interesting. I believe that it is a matter of time before MS takes the first spot, the financial strength is too much. MS has more "gears" to put in if necessery...

It will be interesting... But, Sony will take first spot, MS second and Nintendo third.. (not that they will care..)

 

[DuckThor Evil]

I hope it will be even, but I think Sony is going to win, MS is probably going to gain some ground, if everything goes well, they might lose to Sony only 2:1 instead of 4:1. Nintendo will be 3rd.

 

[Carl B]

If you refuse to acknowledge the Phantom, then you refuse to acknowledge the winner!

But if we have to deal with these other - lesser - consoles, then I say PS3 on top, but losing some ground to both Nintendo and 360. I think Microsoft and Nintendo will both gain a little bit of ground from where they are now, with each having the potential for much larger gains, depending. Nintendo has the least to worry about, IMO, regarding the loss of ground. If PS3 clearly outclasses Microsoft, then Microsoft has the most to worry about. But the scenario I actually think will take place is the one I listed initially.

 

[Acert93]

My prediction: The pie will grow. Currently there are about 120M current gen consoles sold, I would think 140M-150M will be attainable next gen.

PS3 will win overall world wide. It will be a an awesome piece of HW with not only excellent gaming but great home theater support. Powerful and practical in approach the PS3 will remain about gaming. Their pie % will shrink a little, but they will still 70-80M consoles in the same time frame that they did the last 2 gens. It is tough being first because their is only way but down. Sony will do a good job defending their throne.

Xbox 360 will be neck and neck with the PS3 in North America and they will make it closer in Europe. MS will make a token showing in Japan but will continue to be a distant third. MS's plan of leveraging the Xbox game platform and the Windows game platform begins to take life with Longhorn and Live becomes a driving force in online gaming. They will slightly increase their total marketshare % but will substantially increase their total sales.

Nintendo will appeal to their core demographic and fans and catch some new gamers with their new ideas. But the Revolution is more practical than evolutionary (it can play GCN games, so it cannot be too different). They will struggle more than ever before with 3rd parties and will ultimately lose some market share %, but will continue to be in the 20M-25M total sales. The big news will be the GameBoy 2 which will build on Nintendo's success in the handheld area.

I think a lot of factors will result in a bigger market. I think Nintendo will seriously try to branch out to new gamers, the PS3 BR drive will appeal to the home theater market, the PSP will begin to suck even more mainstream people into the home console market, and MS will offer convergance features for email/browsing and the like, Sony will continue to experiment with EyeToy type devices, and so forth. I also think each of the companies will try to reach new gamers (e.g. one of the Xbox heads stated today the need for more casual games). I think we will see companies begin to seriously target girls, moms (one of the biggest gaming demographics), and casual gamers more and more.

Of course this is total conjecture based on the direction the companies are going and what they have, or have not, said about their next gen offerings. So I reserve the right to be totally wrong.

 

[Legend]

My take? X2 will be a huge push for PS3’s domination. Being such a serious competitor with a cash-cow backing it up, Sony can not afford to risk ANYTHING with PS3. everything HAS to be top notch, or they will slip now, and seriously take damage in the next round (next-next-gen).
The thing is with consoles, your current gen performance will effect your next entry.

 

[jvd]

I think the ps3 will be the market leader with around the same amount of systems the ps2 has sold mabye less with ms hitting around 40-50 million systems world wide and nintendo mabye hitting 25 million unless they do something really big

 

[Pozer]

I think alot depends on the technological leap between between the Xbox360 and ps3. If there is a huge gap then I see X360 early launch as a hinderance. If there is a small gap then I see xbox360 taking the crown in North America and some parts of Europe. Possible close tie worldwide. Nintendo is a wildcard. I'll give my opinion when I find out what they are actually selling.

 

[Sonic]

I think Sony will still have at least 60% of the market next generation worldwide. I can see MS with a good 30% worldwide market next generation with Nintendo having around 10%.

I am cautious on Nintendo because not much is known about their plan and if they are actually serious about growing their market share. If they have an agressive plan then I can see Nintendo capturing 20% of the total market.

Sony will be the winner in all areas about a good 10 - 20% lead over the competition.

MS will be able to double its userbase worldwide and maybe even triple the userbase in the USA this generation.

 

[Evil_Cloud]

I say too early to tell.

After E3 people have some facts on which they can base arguments and opinions.

 

[Phil]

I voted for PS3 as it seems to be the best bet. I see Microsoft expanding, but not by much (~10 million more than this gen) - but as Microsoft is still the wildcart and depending on what Sony does, this could change either for the better or worse. I don't see Nintendo being a major factor.

I find it quite amusing btw that the only people that have commented so far in this thread are those that obviously picked PS3 as marketleader. Where are those few that voted Xbox360 and Revolution? I'd be very interested to hear on what basis they voted on...

 

[gmoran]

PS3 should take it, but MS are looking really strong at the moment. I thought launching Xbox's successor first would be a big mistake, but they look to handling it really well. E3 will be interesting.

 

[London Geezer]

One thing is for sure, Sony will play it hard, as soon as Xbox2 is released, they'll make sure everyone thinks that the PS3 will be released after but it will be a total monster. They'll hope to replicate the DC scenario, only this time MS can pour money into the Xbox project till the world ends, so it's gonna be different.

 

[rabidrabbit]

Yes, Kutaragi will give a speech soon after xbox360 launch where he says PS3 will be released early 2006 in Japan, and spring 2006 in US and EU.
But due to shortages, only Japan will get the console spring 2006, US will wait til autumn and Europe until spring 2007

 

[London Geezer]

Yes, Kutaragi will give a speech soon after xbox360 launch where he says PS3 will be released early 2006 in Japan, and spring 2006 in US and EU.
But due to shortages, only Japan will get the console spring 2006, US will wait til autumn and Europe until spring 2007

At special PAL price. Errr...

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I think it'd be good if posters said where they're stationed/living. Of those saying XB360 could do really well in the US, how many live there? Reason I ask is wondering how geographic distribution affects perceptions.

In the UK I just look at figures, see PS2 outsells XB 4:1 everywhere (except Japan ) and would expect similar next-gen when all PS2 owners upgrade. Why in the US will PS2 owners get XB360 instead, when it's not 'da PlayStation'? Maybe in the US XB gets some limelight, but here it's just a games machine, not a cultural icon. Go into any Game store and it's all PS2 and PC titles, with GC and XB shunted to the back. Is that different elsewhere?

 

[Kolgar]

I say overall, PS3 is the likely winner, but in the end, it will come down to the games.

Has Microsoft won over enough key developers and key franchises to sap Sony's momentum? If not - and if Microsoft's "tiered hardware" approach (the hard-drive version of the box for $399) puts people off, Sony might just whoop all over them like nobody's business.