scooby_dooby said:
These new much consoles have more de-compression power than before.
Greater decompression power means higher compression ratio methods which would otherwise decompress too slowly on current gen. However if you look up compression schemes, you'll see the difference between an average compression commonly used now versus the most intense and slow compression, is very little gains. You're talking in the order of 10% file reduction with 'Slow Supercompression' versus bog standard .zip in most cases. The only way to compress files far smaller than existing methods is to go lossy. So if you have textures and meshes for a current gen game, a 5x improvement in size of this data in a next gen game, 5x the number of textures/size of textures, and 5x the poly resolution of meshes, you're looking at 5x the disk requirement. If these assets take 1 GB in current gen, that'd be 5 GB required next-gen. The question then is how much more are the assets going to grow next-gen? 5x the quality of current gen? 10x? If you just double everything up, with 2x the types of creatures, 2x the number of textures each monster has (like normal map + diffuse map), 2x the polygons per creature, 2x the variety of scenery, you're looking at about 4x the data requirement. I'm personally hoping for a lot more than just twice as varied games than this gen!
eg. CON on PS2 was dual layer. I'm not sure of actual size but let's say 6 GB. You had a few different enemies in a dozen different terrains. I'd like to see 10x the improvement in variety, quality of models and scenery, greater texture res etc. That'd be 60 GB straight 'upscaling'. There'll be workarounds, such as for random dungeons which ate a lot of disc space, using procedural synthesis more effectively, so maybe you're looking at 30 GB for a straight upscaling. You're going to need lossy compression to get that onto 8 GB of DVD.
Again with video, if you're going HD and want HD output, you're increasing your video sizes. If audio is going 5.1 as standard with lots more variety of audio, those requirements will increase. You can lossy compress those to Betsy to make them fit, but it'd be nicer if you didn't have to.
I wouldn't be surprised if it took a long time for games to grow to fill up higher capacity discs, and a lot of games might do well on DVD, but I think some games will make use of BRD and show the benefits.