Sony's NeoGeo Pocket's (PSP2/Vita) business/non technical ramifications talk

So let me get this right:

If cell phone -> ignore additional data cost of smartphone (which you are contractually obligated to buy)
That cost is spread over months. If I want a smartphone now, it'll cost me whatever the downpayment is. I then have to worry about keeping up monthly payments, which is something people in general are poor at factoring in - hence a global economic crisis of everyone spending more than they can actually afford! A smart person will look at the total cost, but Joe Public doesn't think that way. "£200 for a smartphone (ignoring data plan) or £200 for a handheld gaming device."

If game device -> add in cost of games (which you aren't contractually obligated to buy)
But if you don't buy any games, what's the point in buying a handheld gaming device?! There may be no contract to get games, but they are going to be a cost. The total cost of ownership for both these devices is as I outlined. One can even add in cost to recharge the battery and other costs if one wants to be excessively accurate. The cost to buy a PSP and the games you play on it is comparable to the cost to buy a smartphone with contract and the games you'd play on that instead. No-one thinks in those terms. Ongoing costs are considered at the time.
 
It's only really comparable if you buy 12+ games a year at full price though. Sure people suck at budgeting in general but I don't see how that's a plus for one and negative for another though. People sucking at budgeting would be a plus for both.
 
It's only really comparable if you buy 12+ games a year at full price though. Sure people suck at budgeting in general but I don't see how that's a plus for one and negative for another though. People sucking at budgeting would be a plus for both.

Well there's quite a few options. After my 2-yr contract expires I can:

A. Sell my old smartphone as a NON contract used phone and still get at least $300 for it (iPhone 4 has very high resale value due to its solid build quality, display and asthetics)
B. Use $200 of that money to upgrade to a brand new more powerful smartphone and use the $100 left over to buy games or apps or pay for part of the monthly data fee.
C. Keep existing phone but deactivate phone service and continue to use it as a media, gaming, internet, computing device (note that you can still buy apps and use Facetime or Skype via WiFi).

Vita isn't selling yet. So you should compare Vita with phones that will be on market in that time frame.

Yep, when PS Vita is released I should be able to upgrade to a iPhone 5 for free if I sell my iPhone 4...
 
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Well there's quite a few options. After my 2-yr contract expires I can:

A. Sell my old smartphone as a NON contract used phone and still get at least $300 for it (iPhone 4 has very high resale value due to its solid build quality, display and asthetics)
....


Yep, when PS Vita is released I should be able to upgrade to a iPhone 5 for free if I sell my iPhone 4...

I think you are vastly overrating the resale value of an iPhone4 in a year.
 
[Sigh] and once again the disscussion devolves into the same tired old discussion of making mobile phone comparisons.

If RudiCurve sees no value in PS Vita over say an iPhone 5 then that's his prerogative. I personally see a handheld that will afford me the option to play traditional phone games AS WELL AS dedicated handheld games that an iPhone 5,6 or possibly even 7 won't afford me (as no-one is spending over $5-10 million on iOS development when the games only sell at $0.99 - avrg app price is dropping too, plus no-one is investing that much in freemium software too).

I see no point in these kinds of discussions because it's about personal preference and value. Many who play dedicated portable games and enjoy those experiences will see the value of PS Vita. Those who prefer the types of experiences you see on iPhone will simply not bother with Vita or the 3DS, but the majority of those would be people who never really made up the vast active userbases of the PSP or DS (to a lesser extent) anyway.

iOS and Vita are not comparable because they serve separate markets. Any disccussion about the cost differences between the two are ultimately fruitless because those who are in the market for a Vita will buy one because they see value in it and those who are content with the lesser gaming content on smartphone will continue with them. Vita clearly won't be a mainstream device, but only in the same way that the orignal playstation, N64, SNES, Gameboy etc were not mainstream devices (by "mainstream" i'm not talking about mainstream gamers. I refer to people without a gaming background, e.g. folks who bought the Wii, use iOS... businessmen, housewives etc).
 
THey're different markets but there's a lot of overlap.

Most people understand that Vita will offer better games but the question is are there enough people willing to pay for the HW and SW to sustain development of those multimillion dollar games, which have to be sold for $40 or $50.

The "good enough" phenomena has made lossy digital audio pervasive and may yet displace DVD and Blu-Ray with much lower bitrate video streams and downloads. It has also made iPhone the most popular camera on Flickr (and probably other photo-sharing sites).

Will "good enough" mobile gaming have the same effect on dedicated gaming devices and games? Don't underestimate the power of convenience and low-cost to change consumer behavior.
 
THey're different markets but there's a lot of overlap.

Most people understand that Vita will offer better games but the question is are there enough people willing to pay for the HW and SW to sustain development of those multimillion dollar games, which have to be sold for $40 or $50.

The "good enough" phenomena has made lossy digital audio pervasive and may yet displace DVD and Blu-Ray with much lower bitrate video streams and downloads. It has also made iPhone the most popular camera on Flickr (and probably other photo-sharing sites).

Will "good enough" mobile gaming have the same effect on dedicated gaming devices and games? Don't underestimate the power of convenience and low-cost to change consumer behavior.

I'm not arguing whether there is overlap. I acknowledge that there is. However, how much is a huge question mark and at this point remains to be seen in my opinion.

My point is towards those who would attempt to assert a notion that the dedicated portables market doesn't exist any longer.

I think your example comparing the iPhone to dedicated cameras is a good one, mainly because although mobile phone cameras have gotten "good enough" to take a big chunk out of the total global camera market, there are enough people in said market looking for dedicated cameras and paying thousands for DSLR etc to justify the markets' existence. In the same manner i assert that there will indeed be enough people that exist in the portable console market globally, looking for the deeper richer gaming portables, who will pay $40 for games because they see value in it. That market has always existed and always will, and as long as content makers continue to put out content on those dedicated platforms that cannot be played elsewhere, then those markets will be sustained and will justify their own existence. Again, dedicated gaming is unique when compared to your examples of music and cameras, as games can be wholly exclusive to one platform with entirely no "lesser" version available on those more mainstream devices. So imho 3DS and Vita aren't really going anywhere.
 
C. Keep existing phone but deactivate phone service and continue to use it as a media, gaming, internet, computing device (note that you can still buy apps and use Facetime or Skype via WiFi).

Or give your old phone to your children. It'd be a [blink]free[/blink] portable WiFi-enabled console that shares the same game library as your up-to-date phone.



Essentially, Sony may need to craft a unique Playstation experience and benefits to funnel new users in, and break (or extend) the above cycle.

To see that, we can look at how Microsoft tries to wrestle "control" from Android and iOS. It's trying to pitch a new experience based on the service model (instead of the "traditional" product/application model):
http://venturebeat.com/2011/08/09/nokia-exec-android-iphone/

Weber called Android and the iOS phone platforms “outdated.” While Apple’s iPhone, and its underlying iOS operating system, set the standard for a modern user interface with “pinch and zoom,” Weber conceded, it also forces people to download multiple applications which they then have to navigate between. There’s a lot of touching involved as you press icons or buttons to activate application features. Android essentially “commoditized” this approach, Weber said.

...

Nokia, by contrast, will offer a more seamless and efficient interface with its “live tiles and hubs” approach. It does this via Microsoft’s Windows Phone operating system, where applications will be integrated into everything you do. For example, if you want to communicate with a business contact, you select the contact from your address book, and then communicate in any way you want — via LinkedIn, Facebook or Twitter — without having to open those individual applications. That’s because everything is built around contacts, not applications. And your profile and most important contacts are represented by tiles on your home screen, which update dynamically as you or your contacts make status updates. On the iPhone and Android, by contrast, the home screen icons remain static.


Centering the experience on the users is a good move. It would also be my primary approach. Although there are limitations in this model too, it allows the vendor to propose a new experience/perspective to the end users. However, nothing stops Apple and Android from introducing a service-oriented model on top of the existing app model (And they have far greater momentum at this point).

Besides the user-centric model (great for an online communication experience), the other way is to start with the content (music, movie, games). There should be many fun and interesting ways to drive the user experience from a media-centric perspective... say, based on an updated Qriocity platform and exclusive Sony first party experiences/titles.

IMHO, Sony's Playstation Home is (still !) not done "correctly" but there are very interesting user-centric dynamics there that can be distilled over to Vita.

EDIT: I'm famished ! Why oh why did I skip breakfast. 8^(
 
The "good enough" phenomena has made lossy digital audio pervasive and may yet displace DVD and Blu-Ray with much lower bitrate video streams and downloads. It has also made iPhone the most popular camera on Flickr (and probably other photo-sharing sites).

The thing is that camera sales aren't actually down much (it's like 1% or something). The cell phone photo market is almost entirely growth.

I don't doubt that there will be some erosion of sales due to device overlap, but the cell phone impact on camera sales is nowhere near what their Flickr share would suggest. Most people going out and looking to take photos are still probably using dedicated cameras. The cell phone just massively increases opportunity. I expect you'll see some of the same with portable gaming devices, some erosion, but many people looking for a gaming device won't be preferring a cell phone for that purpose.
 
Well Windows Phone has to de-emphaisze apps. because it has a paltry amount.

It would be like a gaming device with a fraction of the games as the competition deriding having too many games to choose from.
 
Ha ha, that's kinda true at this point but if MS want, they can spend $$$ to jumpstart the developer base.

There is an alternate economics model based around service-centric experience (vs the mainstream product centric model). I believe there is a Harvard Business Review article on it (half a page !) a few months ago. It's a quick and interesting read.

From the various voice recognition rumors, it seems that Apple is already onto it. In my view, the "power" of voice recognition is not the recognizer (It can be frustrating to use sometimes), it's that the experience breaks away the app boundaries for a service-oriented experience.

It may be safer for Sony to do a user-centric and media-centric experience since Sony has better control in these 2 areas (gamer brand + gamer base + lotsa exclusive contents). With these focii, they can also layer themselves on top of Apple's and Android's momentum (i.e., port some of their stuff there). Afterall, all they want is money (boatload of them), not bragging rights.
 
They have been paying developers for WP7 apps. They tout that they have more than iOS or Android at a similar point.

If they got significant marketshare and a lot of apps. they would be singing a different tune.

WebOS has a nice UI too according to many. But HP/Palm are under no illusions that they don't need apps.
 
If they try to court developers using the same framework now, it'd be a hard sell (as they probably have found out).

The smarter/more efficient way is to innovate on the actual value and experiences, draw the users and then let the developers come to you.

It is a marathon but they can't afford to let the gap widens further.

Same for Sony and Nintendo. As long as they leverage their strength and innovate properly instead of haphazardly, the rise of iOS and Android can be a great event for both (Everyone can be a connected gamer now).
 
I think you are vastly overrating the resale value of an iPhone4 in a year.

I sell phones on ebay and know the max/min I could fetch. When the iPhone 4 was two weeks from release I sold a "like new" 3GS for $330. Many of the other sellers were getting even more. I only sold it for fixed price of $330 because I needed to get money within a week. iPhone 4 was a huge jump from 3GS. I doubt iP5 will be a huge jump from 4 ie resolution will be the same, case design will be similar not better, battery life won't be much better etc.
 
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[Sigh] and once again the disscussion devolves into the same tired old discussion of making mobile phone comparisons.

If RudiCurve sees no value in PS Vita over say an iPhone 5 then that's his prerogative. I personally see a handheld that will afford me the option to play traditional phone games AS WELL AS dedicated handheld games that an iPhone 5,6 or possibly even 7 won't afford me (as no-one is spending over $5-10 million on iOS development when the games only sell at $0.99 - avrg app price is dropping too, plus no-one is investing that much in freemium software too).

I see no point in these kinds of discussions because it's about personal preference and value. Many who play dedicated portable games and enjoy those experiences will see the value of PS Vita. Those who prefer the types of experiences you see on iPhone will simply not bother with Vita or the 3DS, but the majority of those would be people who never really made up the vast active userbases of the PSP or DS (to a lesser extent) anyway.

iOS and Vita are not comparable because they serve separate markets. Any disccussion about the cost differences between the two are ultimately fruitless because those who are in the market for a Vita will buy one because they see value in it and those who are content with the lesser gaming content on smartphone will continue with them. Vita clearly won't be a mainstream device, but only in the same way that the orignal playstation, N64, SNES, Gameboy etc were not mainstream devices (by "mainstream" i'm not talking about mainstream gamers. I refer to people without a gaming background, e.g. folks who bought the Wii, use iOS... businessmen, housewives etc).

I think the problem for PS Vita is the fact people who already carry a smartphone around with them won't see much point in carrying a PS Vita around with them....so that makes it difficult to rationalize spending another $250 for a more richer gaming experience. That and the fact richer PS Vita games will also cost more $40-$50. For people who don't already have a smartphone the PS Vita will give good value at $250. As for digital cameras, the thing is camera phones are VERY limited in photo taking abilities ie weak flash, crappy digital zoom etc. so it's no suprise that many people including me still buy dedicated cameras.

With that said I still may eventually get a PS Vita for its "gadget factor" but I won't be buying any expensive games for it or take it along with me whereever I go. Most likely it'll just get used as a video player.
 
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I think the problem for PS Vita is the fact people who already carry a smartphone around with them won't see much point in carrying a PS Vita around with them....so that makes it difficult to rationalize spending another $250 for a more richer gaming experience. That and the fact richer PS Vita games will also cost more $40-$50. For people who don't already have a smartphone the PS Vita will give good value at $250.

They're facing an uphill battle. The question is, how do they reach the market that has a smart phone, but would also buy a tablet? Such people are clearly not opposed to purchasing multiple devices with overlapping functionality. Can they even reach that market given the Vita's screen size?
 
I think the problem for PS Vita is the fact people who already carry a smartphone around with them won't see much point in carrying a PS Vita around with them....so that makes it difficult to rationalize spending another $250 for a more richer gaming experience. That and the fact richer PS Vita games will also cost more $40-$50. For people who don't already have a smartphone the PS Vita will give good value at $250. As for digital cameras, the thing is camera phones are VERY limited in photo taking abilities ie weak flash, crappy digital zoom etc. so it's no suprise that many people including me still buy dedicated cameras.

I have two PSPs (one 2000 and one Go). I do not carry them around everywhere. If I am going somewhere where I am going to have time and space to play I bring one of them.

Also, all smartphones are crappy game machines. Vita is a GREAT game machine.
 
Also, all smartphones are crappy game machines.

Tell that to the millions of people who enjoy gaming on them instead of dedicated gaming portable.

Oh btw 3DS was supposed to be a GREAT gaming machine too...hows that doing? Not so great....
 
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