A 3nm wafer costs around more than double of a 7nm one. Unless UDNA has some huge increases in perf/w in raster, I think that they will try to get to around 2x of a base PS5 or 60% more than a PS5 Pro, in other words something like a 4070 super (we are isolating raster perf here to be clear).
There's not a whole lot of 'clever' architectural improvements to be had left when optimizing HW design for an existing set of algorithms like path tracing and it's not as if developers really care about the welfare of the non-western lower income consumers anymore so why on earth should Sony care about them at the expense of raw technological advancement to the industry ?
I mean, if PS6 or a variant of it isn't affordable for most people, then the numbers will come down. I don't think that Sony doesn't want to offer something for lower income families, is that with the PS5, everything that could have gone wrong has gone wrong. Cost of materials didn't come down, covid happened, higher cost of transportation and now tariffs.
Sony is in no position to dictate whatever terms developers will operate on since they'll use the PC platform as a hedge against them so developers will gladly ditch them if they can't provide a competent platform and if Sony can't keep up with advancements in PC technology then perhaps it's time for them to stop being a platform vendor altogether ...I mean, if PS6 or a variant of it isn't affordable for most people, then the numbers will come down. I don't think that Sony doesn't want to offer something for lower income families, is that with the PS5, everything that could have gone wrong has gone wrong. Cost of materials didn't come down, covid happened, higher cost of transportation and now tariffs.
So it's not that they hate poor people, it's that they don't want to lose too much money on console sold. And since they can't introduce a PS5 mini during the generation, they are probably waiting for the next. Or maybe I'm wrong and Sony is the devil
You think that if Sony doesn't keep up with the tech advancements developers will ditch them?
Install base is irrelevant when your system is obsolete for development purposes. If Sony can't get on board the future of path tracing then developers will absolutely do it without them instead!
Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft (with some asterisks) can do wethever they want. They are the console market. Unless developers want to do games just for PC's with path tracing capabilities. And they would be free to do that. They could also file for bankruptcy in the middle of development while they are at it.
Out of all of ones you mentioned, Sony were the ones who wanted to converge the hardest with PC towards path tracing while the ENTIRE community here supported them for it so isn't it a bit late/hyocritical to back out or pivot elsewhere ?
Remember that next gen is likely going to be the first one without a resolution jump, increased resolution usually eats a big portion of a new console’s power, this gen gotten eaten mostly by making 60fps a standard and the rest went to resolution increase, not much left for effects and other things. Maybe staying at the same resolutions and utilizing much better scaling like FSR4 or 5 along with dedicated upscaling units will free the console to have a big jump in raster performance.
Sony and AMD are going towards path tracing. They don't need a 4080 at a minimum to achieve that. If they can get that level of power in a chip that isn't too big, than by all means, I will be happy about it, but if they don't it's not like next gen is a bust and Sony has betrayed developers or something. There are economic realities right now that make everything more complicated.
3 years is still a long way from now. 3nm for next gen would be the minimum reasonable expectation for a machine supposed to last 8 years
I'm not doubting that it will be 3nm. I'm arguing that the increased price means that the chip maybe remain the same size as a PS5 slim (270mm) or even lower, to get a chip that's not too expansive.
Yes I agree and thats a decent estimate on the die size. Although I consider 3nm to be the min spec requirement, when you consider iPhone 18 will be 2nm N2 in 2026, things may be different for Sony with the PS6. I think its not out of the realm that things could have changed globally by 2028 when the PS6 launches with the iPhone 20 pro releasing on 1.6nm or something newer like 1.5nm. With regular iPhone 20 on N2P. That would leave N2 or N3X as the best for the PS6 die.
The leaks are saying that it's going to be 3nm, but they don't specify what variant.
For now its most likely going to be N3X as that performs best at high voltages and will be more affordable than going with 2nm N2 in 2028 based off current conditions. Going with N3 wouldnt provide a substantial jump over N4P which is what the PS5 pro uses. In 2028 some iPhones will be on 2nm(N2P) others will be on 1.6nm(A16), that could provide opportunities for others like Sony to get those N2 wafers. Sony usually moves to newer nodes to save money, like right now its on 4nm for the PS5 pro. So N3X is the most likely one for the PS6 based off current conditions but between now and then a lot can change. If N2P becomes more affordable by 2028 that will be an option as well.
Anything less than 4080 means real sacrifices in terms of quality, with fewer rays per pixel and less bounce.
