Sony PS6, Microsoft neXt Series - 10th gen console speculation [2020]

But even in the absurd scenario where PS6 has less raster power than a PS5, developers would still develop for it. It's not like they are going to cross their arms and refuse to work.
It's upto developers if they want to deal with nonstandard designs for a lower footprint because the end game for standard PC hardware is more complex hardware but if that becomes problematic for console platforms then that's too bad for them if they're forced to fall further behind ...

Raster HW is just the "tip of the iceberg" for modern hardware compared to all the complexities that go into optimizing for RT or AI ...
 
I believe that consoles shouldn't be made with the 0.1% of developers in mind. If you start to take in to consideration all the wants of the developers you end up with stuff like the PS5 SSD. Made the 0.1% of developers that will maybe use that happy, but they could have saved some 10-20$ on the BOM and nothing would have changed.
How did you arrive at 0.1% for developers asking for SSDs?


Some developer wanted 16 cores for PS5. I suppose Naughty Dog, ID software or Guerrilla Games would be happy to have 16 cores...




hey don't do the CPU for the average devs but for those who want to push the system.

The Jolt physics engine used by Guerrilla Games scale well until 16 cores

I think this is a major hint for what baseline will be expected for next gen CPUs. If these studios were requesting for 16 core CPUs then what about now when you have multiple large hw accelerators for AI upscaling and RT? It will be interesting to see what they go for in 2028. Not sure a 16 core Zen 7 CPU will come cheap but its possible at the quantities Sony purchases.
 
How did you arrive at 0.1% for developers asking for SSDs?
Is there any game that needs 5.5gb speeds? As far as we know, even halving that speed doesn't change anything. What's more important has been the compression hardware, with the raw speed of the SSD being secondary.

In other words, no software that we know has been written by developers that requires the full speed of the SSD, not even close, and it can be considered unused hardware.
 
It's an illustrative figure for the proportion of devs that wanted super-fast SSD. Sony could have gone with a cheaper, simpler solution with effectively the same results for all but a tiny minority of games as proven by storage speed tests the past years.
I see the perspective, but again it was more like some of the devs wanted SATA speeds so around 600MB/s others wanted about 1.5GB/s so NVMes were needed. So 0.1% isnt fair assessment imo maybe 50/50, 70/30, 30/70.

Sony could have gone with a cheaper, simpler solution with effectively the same results for all but a tiny minority of games as proven by storage speed tests the past years.
Sony was smarter and helped the whole industry+ consumers since they considered the cost of flash storage over the lifetime of the console, there weren't material savings going with an initially cheaper solution like MS's. Their large orders(by both Sony and MS)helped bring down the cost of NVMe SSDs for the whole consumer market while increasing sales for the manufacturers. The fastest consumer NVMe SSDs at the time were 3.2GB/s and iirc were well above $150 for 1TB. Sony realized going with 5.5GB/s would only be expensive initially. Which indeed turned out true since the price dropped down and within 9 months the PS5 hw was selling at a profit. Compare that with the marketing they got out of a magical SSD and you can see it was a smart choice financially. Up to today people believe the myths about the PS5's magical SSD. They also put the expansion bay capable of utilizing different M.2 so in that regard they had a much better outlook than MS. MS isn't saving anything material with their choice of 2.5GB/s over Sony's 5.5GB/s SSD. They are likely spending the same amount. If Sony had gone with much slower NVMe SSDs its highly unlikely we would have 990 pros at $150 today.

Sony could have gone with a cheaper, simpler solution with effectively the same results for all but a tiny minority of games as proven by storage speed tests the past years.
In consideration of my prior statement, when you look at the grand scheme of things both companies made the right choices over the long term. The cost of fast SSDs on the next gen systems is going to be small defacto. For next gen most of the money will initially go into memory and the accelerators for rasterization, AI upscaling and RT. With that large memory of next gen systems game designers can put more pressure on the disk throughput to send larger amounts of compressed data into memory. Another thing is storage size, next gen we could buy larger SSDs for expansion even if the disk throughput remained the same. 4TB SN850 costs $300 8TB SSD costs $600 today, possibly cheaper in 2028. Consider finally next gen consoles can utilize this current gen disk throughput, we could still buy cheaper larger SSDs at 2028 prices since PCIe 5.0 is backwards compaitble. There is a lot of benefits from what Sony did imo.
 
I see the perspective, but again it was more like some of the devs wanted SATA speeds so around 600MB/s others wanted about 1.5GB/s so NVMes were needed. So 0.1% isnt fair assessment imo maybe 50/50, 70/30, 30/70.
The argument was about the highly-engineered solution, not the desire for NVMe. Sony's storage solution only benefits 0.1% whereas a basic NVMe solution would have served everyone.
Sony realized going with 5.5GB/s would only be expensive initially.
And yet benefit 0.1% of developer over going with 2 GB/s
There is a lot of benefits from what Sony did imo.
What proportion of games and developers need that 5.5 GB/s performance as opposed to a 2 GB/s solution? Does it or does it not only benefit 0.1% of developers?
 
Next gen architecture is about efficiently meeting demands of future workloads not "doing more with less". Sony doesnt base console specs on consumer PC averages, it makes forward looking bets 100% based on developer needs over a 7-8 year console cycle. Respectfully what you've proposed wouldnt be smart since you cant just plug and play PNM and PIM into a memory controller. You're comparing PNM(Persistent Memory) and PIM(Processing In Memory) which are enterprise side academic technologies with no proven and viable deployment, no driver stack, no compiler runtime support in gaming consoles. Even if you managed to incorporate these systems, you still wouldnt negate the need for higher physical memory capacity and bandwidth when it comes to feeding real-time graphics pipelines and AI inference engines for next gen silicon and workloads. You'd end up increasing the latency along the memory hierarchy by incorporating such an additional layer. IIRC Xbox One base console added embedded SRAM(ESRAM) as a cache between the GPU and DRAM, with a theoretical 204GB/s of memory bandwidth. But this was a disaster in practice with developers only having about 68GB/s usable due to inconsistent performance. Sony's simpler 8GB of GDDR5(176GB/s) with higher memory bandwidth outperformed the theoretical (204GB/s) memory bandwidth on the base Xbox One without a need for OS and SDK level optimizations, and no need for extra developer work. Simple wide physical memory won out over complex theoretical workarounds. Thats the smart precedent here.

What do you mean PNM and PIM don't have proven and viable deployment? They're technologies major companies are using right now in various AI and enterprise environments! LPDDR-PIM and HBM-PIM are available as commercial products, they aren't theories in academic papers anymore and haven't been such in years. Yes, the industries actively buying that memory are quite niche, but they nonetheless are buying them. Commercial products of the technologies wouldn't exist, if the promises they made (such as much reduced power consumption across the memory bus) weren't proven in the first place.

It doesn't actually matter if the technologies have no implementation in current consoles, because if you look at the history of technological evolution in consoles, they've always cribbed concepts from high-performance tech in other sectors & industries anyway. Many of the concepts 5th gen consoles like PS1, Saturn and N64 implemented at a mass-market scale came from things like smaller CD-ROM adoption on PC, and 3D graphics technology from specific arcade boards and hyper-expensive SGI workstations. All of those were rather small in total scale of adoption compared to the many millions of units 5th-gen consoles would go on to sell. So the fact HBM-PIM or equivalent aren't actively in use with a game console today doesn't bar them being used in a future design whatsoever.

Also, I have to correct you somewhat; PNM is something actually implemented in at least one console on the market today, the PS5. The entire concept of the I/O subsystem is an implementation of PNM; almost all of the data processing related to storage happens directly between the storage and system memory. The I/O subsystem has buffer caches and logic to offload almost all of this from the PS5's CPU. That is an implementation of PNM, and it's been available for the mass market since 2020.

I feel you're misunderstanding the main benefits of PNM or PIM especially; bringing up increasing memory latency, well the entire point of things like PNM and PIM is to reduce the need to transfer data across the bus to begin with! By localizing the processing, you reduce the need to keep shuffling data across the bus. Meanwhile, the latency you might introduce by having another memory in the hierarchy, isn't significant and wouldn't have a significant impact on overall performance. It would really just come down to how SIE'd decide to implement something like PNM or PIM as a buffer. Do they make it a cache or make it the whole memory pool? If it's a cache, how much do they add?

In any case, considering the strong likelihood they're using AMD's x3D vCache, there's going to be at least some type of implementation of PNM or PIM in the PS6 due to that (especially if SIE extend the usage of things like cache scrubbers to that cache).

The hw compression was present on both PS5 and Series X and was fixing bottlenecks between the disk to memory. The hw blocks decompressed data between the SSD and RAM and not during active execution in the unified physical memory pool. Once you have the data resident in memory the decompression is done. So you have full uncompressed high resolution textures, AI states, BVH structures, etc. Improving compression ratios will not compensate for physical memory shortfalls if anything it only necessitates higher physical memory to take advantage of better compression ratios. On top of that you still have a need for higher memory bandwidth for Real Time RayTracing like Path tracing, virtualized simulations, ML hw accelerated upscalers like PSSR. And this is just the baseline for flagship AAA titles for a system supposed to run from 2028-2035/6. There's just no way around doubling RAM and memory bandwidth.

Well let's just be realistic here then; what's the actual chance a PS6 in 2028 can both double its current memory capacity AND significantly boost the amount of total bandwidth? Al while trying to strike a reasonable price (IMO, anything more than $599 is probably very egregious for a mass-market traditional console)? It sounds like you're expecting a doubling on both fronts but that in addition to a competent CPU & GPU to leverage it is going to push prices unrealistically high IMO.

Especially considering, SIE don't want to lose too much money on each system sold (if any at all).

Again you're looking at the improvements to disk throughput while I was talking about the memory requirements not disk. Yes Cerny with Kraken and Oodle and Andrew Goossen at MS with BCPack were right to prioritize I/O throughput. That was the biggest bottleneck moving from 8th to 9th gen. Now its back to memory and compute. ML upscaling, BVH traversal for Path Tracing are both computational and memory intensive. If Sony includes larger silicon blocks for these hw accelerators on top of hw acceration for traditional Rasterization without at least doubling of memory and memory bandwidth, then they'll have underutilized silicon. And as I mentioned earlier that wouldnt be smart engineering but very similar to the Xbox One ESRAM bottleneck but actually worse in this case. For the kind of hw they plan on creating, physical memory doubling is a necessity.

I mean it's interesting you are acknowledging on one hand the next bottlenecks being memory and compute, while also acknowledging that compute is going to require custom integrated silicon dedicated to that task, yet you're against the idea of PNM or PIM (essentially), even focusing on main memory & bandwidth of such over the cache.

IMO it's always better to try coupling & optimizing data processing as close to the compute as possible, and that means coupling the memory as close to the compute as able. Registers, caches...they're both effectively implementations of PNM or PIM. There's a decent possibility SIE treat some 32-64 MB block of x3D v-Cache like the eDRAM the PS2 had, or maybe they pair that up with some other memory in a similar role. Either way, if they're using some v-Cache, I'd 100% expect some form of cache scrubbers alongside other processing elements within the memory itself, so that's still a PIM implementation for the next console.

How much control programmers would directly have over it, is another question.
 
IMO it's always better to try coupling & optimizing data processing as close to the compute as possible, and that means coupling the memory as close to the compute as able. Registers, caches...they're both effectively implementations of PNM or PIM. There's a decent possibility SIE treat some 32-64 MB block of x3D v-Cache like the eDRAM the PS2 had, or maybe they pair that up with some other memory in a similar role. Either way, if they're using some v-Cache, I'd 100% expect some form of cache scrubbers alongside other processing elements within the memory itself, so that's still a PIM implementation for the next console.

How much control programmers would directly have over it, is another question.
If Vcache is in, I expect it to be a very small amount, as cache occupies a lot of space on the chip. Maybe it could be a design that dynamically allocates a certain amount to the CPU and GPU as needed.
 
The argument was about the highly-engineered solution, not the desire for NVMe. Sony's storage solution only benefits 0.1% whereas a basic NVMe solution would have served everyone.
I get that, my point was it didnt make financial sense for them to go with an initially cheaper solution if they could bring down the cost of the more expensive NVMe SSDs with their purchasing power and utilize that as a marketing gimmick. "Buy our next gen console that has the fastest SSD speeds that you cant even get on PC" remember that marketing Cerny did even before the road to the PS5? Yet they knew very well that their purchasing power could likely bring down the prices of NVMe SSDs. If they hadnt gone with a 5.5GB/s SSD they'd still be paying similar prices for slower NVMe SSDs.

And yet benefit 0.1% of developer over going with 2 GB/s

What proportion of games and developers need that 5.5 GB/s performance as opposed to a 2 GB/s solution? Does it or does it not only benefit 0.1% of developers?
I think I both dodged and answered you with the above statement. If we go with the 0.1% figure and about 920 PS5 games then thats well over 90 titles some of which could be system sellers like GTA 6. Its not a bad investment considering its been both a financial(the cost of the PS5 SSD dropped sharply after launch) and marketing success for Sony. As well for the whole industry including PC gamers who can now get those NVMe SSDs at cheaper prices. I dont think developers are complaining about the disk throughput if anything they are happy about it. I have watched devs talking about how they were getting effective over 4GB/s into memory on the Series X after decompression for Dirt 5.
 
I think I both dodged and answered you with the above statement. If we go with the 0.1% figure and about 920 PS5 games then thats well over 90 titles
That'd be 10%. 1% would be 9 titles. 0.1% would be 1.
some of which could be system sellers like GTA 6.
GTA6 won't be needing PS5's IO system. It'll work just fine on 2.5 GB/s PC NMVe SSDs. Nothing so far has needed that solution.
As well for the whole industry including PC gamers who can now get those NVMe SSDs at cheaper prices.
You seriously don't think the SSD market would be where it is without Sony's involvement?? Besides which, even it true, Sony shouldn't be designing consoles with a view to helping the PC space get cheaper components.
I dont think developers are complaining about the disk throughput if anything they are happy about it.
That's besides the point. Those same games would work fine at half the bandwidth. Sony spent more than they needed to.
 
That'd be 10%. 1% would be 9 titles. 0.1% would be 1.
Yeah I wrote that while taking a nap so I got the math off, still my prior points stand.
GTA6 won't be needing PS5's IO system. It'll work just fine on 2.5 GB/s PC NMVe SSDs. Nothing so far has needed that solution.
My argument was 2.5GB/s didnt meet their requirements. Hear me out, at the numbers Sony is buying, going with a 5.5GB/s base spec SSD was financially sound and even better for improving developer productivity and relations, marketing. It didnt make sense for them to stick to speeds below 3.5GB/s. They went above and beyond for very good technical, financial and marketing reasons. No one's complaining in the finance or marketing or developer relations department.(With that in mind, dont be surprised if Sony goes for a full 128GB of RAM on the PS6(lmao jk, it will likely be 32GB)). No one is complaining in that regard at MS as well but Xbox doesnt have the magical SSD that can do anything that Sony does.
You seriously don't think the SSD market would be where it is without Sony's involvement?? Besides which, even it true, Sony shouldn't be designing consoles with a view to helping the PC space get cheaper components.
Barring other constants no we wouldnt, the move by MS and Sony to NVMe SSDs helped significantly especially with what we used to consider top of the line SSDs. Sony(and MS as well) really pushed the industry forward and brought down costs of the SSDs, I give a tad bit more credit to Sony because they invested in a solution which was more expensive and ~3 times as fast as purely technical required.
Besides which, even it true, Sony shouldn't be designing consoles with a view to helping the PC space get cheaper components.
Again you're missing my point, the positives for the PC space was a side effect. Sony looked at what developers needed, what the marketing team needed and the high cost of the SSDs, and decided they were going to go above and beyond to hit all these targets. And they did. The current 1TB 5.5GB/s SSD that ships with the PS5 is relatively cheap, the prices went down quickly and Sony can market their magical SSDs which are better than anything on the planet and developers love the SSDs. And guess what developers love it. The most technical people love it.
That's besides the point. Those same games would work fine at half the bandwidth. Sony spent more than they needed to.
Again you're missing my point, think about it this way, the developers are happy and are not requesting for a reduction in speed or calling it unnecessary. Sony's marketing team is happy they can market magical SSDs that solve anything, Sony's Finance team is happy the cost of the storage is significantly cheaper than at launch. Sony didnt spend more than they needed to, they got more than they spent. Maybe developer feedback is that next gen they can keep the speeds at the current 5.5GB/s? or drop them down to the 2.5GB/s you stated. We'll find out next gen. My money is we'll have some improvements to the speeds regardless.
 
What do you mean PNM and PIM don't have proven and viable deployment? They're technologies major companies are using right now in various AI and enterprise environments! LPDDR-PIM and HBM-PIM are available as commercial products,
No proven deployment on consumer grade products let alone consoles, I think that was very evident since I mentioned they are deployed in Enterprise environments.

It doesn't actually matter if the technologies have no implementation in current consoles, because if you look at the history of technological evolution in consoles, they've always cribbed concepts from high-performance tech in other sectors & industries anyway. Many of the concepts 5th gen consoles like PS1, Saturn and N64 implemented at a mass-market scale came from things like smaller CD-ROM adoption on PC, and 3D graphics technology from specific arcade boards and hyper-expensive SGI workstations. All of those were rather small in total scale of adoption compared to the many millions of units 5th-gen consoles would go on to sell. So the fact HBM-PIM or equivalent aren't actively in use with a game console today doesn't bar them being used in a future design whatsoever.
Not in 2028, it would increase the cost per GB. HBM-PIM is almost twice as expensive as HBM-3. Now factor in doing something similar on the PS6.

Also, I have to correct you somewhat; PNM is something actually implemented in at least one console on the market today, the PS5. The entire concept of the I/O subsystem is an implementation of PNM; almost all of the data processing related to storage happens directly between the storage and system memory. The I/O subsystem has buffer caches and logic to offload almost all of this from the PS5's CPU. That is an implementation of PNM, and it's been available for the mass market since 2020.
This is a stretch, it is not PNM. Its simply has a decompression ASIC on the side of the DMA path. Once the data hits the 16GB pool its uncompressed.
Well let's just be realistic here then; what's the actual chance a PS6 in 2028 can both double its current memory capacity AND significantly boost the amount of total bandwidth? Al while trying to strike a reasonable price (IMO, anything more than $599 is probably very egregious for a mass-market traditional console)? It sounds like you're expecting a doubling on both fronts but that in addition to a competent CPU & GPU to leverage it is going to push prices unrealistically high IMO.
Sony has paid overspec at the start of the gen for DRAM before with GDDR3 on the PS3 and GDDR5 on the PS4, they wont waste time on PIM/PNM, they'll double the RAM though from 16GB to 32GB GDDR7.
 
No SATA SSD in PS5 and Xbox Series, it was never the case. The minimum spec was the one fro the first leak 1GB/s on Xbox Series and after they improved it.
 
AAA game developers and Epic Games probably wants at MINIMUM ~4080 tier performance level so Sony can sell that for $800USD or take bigger losses ...

It's either the above happens or somehow Sony tries to sell alternative rendering techniques (beyond just either raster, neural, or RT) to them ...
4080 should be the absolute minimum, and even with that, it will be the smallest generational gain in a long time.
This is why Sony should focus on path tracing to achieve a significant visual gain over the previous generation.
 
4080 should be the absolute minimum, and even with that, it will be the smallest generational gain in a long time.
This is why Sony should focus on path tracing to achieve a significant visual gain over the previous generation.
Delivering 4080 perf will be non-negotiable if the end game is path tracing even if budgeting for it potentially does eat into their demographic growth ...
 
4080 should be the absolute minimum, and even with that, it will be the smallest generational gain in a long time.
This is why Sony should focus on path tracing to achieve a significant visual gain over the previous generation.
Yeah I think this is the direction Cerny is taking. He's been talking quite alot about RT
 
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