Sony Playstation Marketing: a quiet place in days gone?

[London Geezer]

So we're all guessing Q4 2020?
Yea, it's getting to about that point in time. Testing and Kits go out for about a year and then a ramp up in production and go?

That's one year and a half from today. Long time to wait!

 

[Nesh]

That is not what I said, nor what is happening.

In my working experience there are essentially 2 types of worker, one that talks about how busy they are and one who looks like they're doing very little.

Usually the talker is flapping and seems to be productive, but generally it's the quiet one who has planned everything and knows exactly what they are doing that ends up with the best results.

This isn't the case though.
MS is not just flapping. They do improve their current product and they are trying to prove their selves. It shows to some extend where Sony could have also improved but they havent since they saw there was no need.
Sony looks like the kind of guy who has done some fine job at the beginning, they proved their selves and they feel they have no reason to prove anything anymore because it still pays off.This may very well be a story like the tortoise and the hare. It may or may not be the case, but this is the impression they give.
We can claim that exclusive games are proof this isnt the case, but the consoles today build their gaming value in multiple fronts. The exclusives may be at the top of the pyramid, regardless what's below doesnt mean it is insignificant.

 

[MrFox]

What would have been the negatives in telling us six months ago that PS5 would have BC?

Are you kidding, I just told you why.

1. Telling the competition about BC being ready, you don't announce without fitting it in a complete marketing plan.

2. BC is full of risks (from cerny, some low level stuff have race conditions) and they can't announce it until they are sure to make it work. I gave you examples of what happens when a company have to backtrack.

3. Over two years early they don't have the final silicon nor the clocks. The software stack and planned launch features are in early stages.

 

[manux]

What would have been the negatives in telling us six months ago that PS5 would have BC?

Competition knowing sony strategy and having 6 more months to adjust both their hw, sw and marketing message. It might be a game of inches in the end. Probably same reason why we don't know ssd size, exact speed of ssd, clockspeed of cpu and so on.

In the unlikely case ms launches this year they cannot adjust, hw/sw would already be locked down. In case they launch 2020 there isn't much time until hw design has to be complete and sent to factory. In case ms launches 2021 they can comfortably adjust based on ps5 if needed.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I see that argument, but I don't really understand the actual consequences. What exactly can MS do to counter a 'PS5 has BC' message, or even a non-committal 'games that will never be forgotten' or something implication towards BC? Up until BC is confirmed, Sony could still engage in some PR wars over the notion, hinting that it's something they value. Talk about understanding the value that their fans have in backwards compatibility, and Sony has the strongest library of games, and PS has always been about library, and the PS legacy is set to continue, and generally sow a general notion that they are going to support BC without being committal. That would be more in keeping with what I'd expect from a corporation engaging in aggressive PR - supply ammo to their forum warriors.

Note that I personally would prefer they stay quiet and only announce what they've got, but I don't know if that's actually best for their marketing nor what the majority of people want. It's like, people love to watch movie trailers where I don't so not to spoil movies, and people love to consume game media years before release whereas I just wait for the thing to come out. People by and large like to be engaged. It's why platform rumours etc. are big news, because people don't want to wait for official announcements.

 

[manux]

If ms had more radical option and bc option they definitely now want to go with bc.

It could even be sony didn't know 6months ago if they will choose bc option or something more radical. Could also be same hw but needing to decide if they want to build&qa software needed for bc. This would also affect things outside ps5 like psn store. They will now have to support buying, downloading and installing ps4 software in ps5.

 

[temesgen]

Sony looks like the kind of guy who has done some fine job at the beginning, they proved their selves and they feel they have no reason to prove anything anymore because it still pays off.This may very well be a story like the tortoise and the hare. It may or may not be the case, but this is the impression they give.

I don't agree with this, it's not like Sony stopped making great (by their consumer's perspective First party titles), it's a huge investment and I'm not sure a pyramid analogy fits. Sony clearly sees value in offering original IP, VR and to a lesser degree other services. Even a casual look at how other companies de-commodify their business suggest that having your own IP is extremely important.

Amazon Prime to some degree competes with Netflix for on demand video services but Amazon offers many other things within Prime that create value - they do have some very good exclusives too. Netflix also has exclusives and every year we see the production value and scope of the offerings increasing significantly as the HBOs and Disney of the entertainment world look at the monthly fee potential and try to replicate their own versions of services.

Frankly without exclusives the platform holders would be completely vulnerable to the whims of the AAA third party companies, who already are edging in on their territory with GAAS business models. We're a decent streaming technology solution from having EA for example not needing MS or Sony to deliver their games to consumers. If anything MS and Sony need to start taking first party more serious as a matter of survival.

The on demand video world isn't exactly a perfect corollary but it offers insights into some of the challenges associated with current business model platform holders will be facing in the coming years.

Differentiation is arguably then most important way for these platform holders to create value, at least from my perspective if they are smart they'd view it that way. Ironically technology like VR and Kinect are other ways to achieve this but I think it's extremely risky to build a business model around these technologies, they help to round out an ecosystem, incrementally increase the value proposition nothing more.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

So we're all guessing Q4 2020?
Yea, it's getting to about that point in time. Testing and Kits go out for about a year and then a ramp up in production and go?

If Sony can launch in Q1/H1 2020 they will. Announce in October/November 2019 and give everybody the opportunity to save that Christmas money.

 

[iroboto]

If Sony can launch in Q1/H1 2020 they will. Announce in October/November 2019 and give everybody the opportunity to save that Christmas money.

Isn’t that traditionally after all the money has been spent though, however the times are changing; Christmas bonuses come closer to the end of the year.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

Again though, some bizzaro narky attitude. "Riots on the street"? We're talking maybe a 4% drop in sales next gen, or whatever.

But where are these 4% even coming from?
4% is huge! On this generation that would mean almost 4 million console sales!

But who exactly is bothered about this supposed lack of communication, and lack of new titles being announced?

All I see is two or three forum users, some or all of whom seemingly don't even own a PS4, claiming that PS4 owners are somehow upset that Sony hasn't announced new exclusives in a while.
And yet there are zero proof or even actual hints that this is actually happening. As mentioned above Days Gone has high pre-order numbers. I go to reddit subs dedicated to PS4/Playstation from 3 days ago (before Cerny's Interview) and I see zero threads complaining about lack of new titles/services. I see lots of people sharing what they built on Dreams, mentioning silent hits on PSVR, changing PSN ID, promos and review links.

There aren't any articles mentioning any general concern (which do tend to popup after people start complaining in social media). Actual PS4 users seem perfectly content with the exclusives that are coming out this year.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

Isn’t that traditionally after all the money has been spent though, however the times are changing; Christmas bonuses come closer to the end of the year.

And that's why you tell people before the holiday so they can chose to save some or all of their Christmas money for after Christmas.

 

[iroboto]

And that's why you tell people before the holiday so they can chose to save some or all of their Christmas money for after Christmas.

well for early adopters yea. That strategy works, and pre-ordering is a completely different thing.
Parents looking to buy for children for christmas is a missed opportunity though.

 

[London Geezer]

I'm not a parent, but if my kid knew that a PS5/NeXtBox are coming out, say, in March, and he/she REALLLLYYYY wanted one, and the family only had a limited budget, then the natural thing would be to go easy on Xmas and save up for March.

If not, smelly kid can wait until his bday or next Xmas, shut up and go to his room.

 

[manux]

If ps5 is 499$+taxes or even 599$ the sales are going to be limited compared to cheaper consoles. That's ok, ps4 is the real mass market/casual device for now.

I would be pleasantly surprised if masses were willing to buy "expensive" console but I'm not holding my breath.

I wonder if these next gen consoles will convert pc gamers to console side? That could increase sales a lot, instead of upgrading gpu get a console. Maybe the trick is to have good hw(check) and have mouse+leyboard support and cross play support from day 1.

 

[London Geezer]

PS4 was what, $399 at launch? I think up to $499 would be a perfectly fine price these days, if the value proposition is there to justify the cost. Maybe $449 if Sony wants to push it.

 

[iroboto]

I'm not a parent, but if my kid knew that a PS5/NeXtBox are coming out, say, in March, and he/she REALLLLYYYY wanted one, and the family only had a limited budget, then the natural thing would be to go easy on Xmas and save up for March.

If not, smelly kid can wait until his bday or next Xmas, shut up and go to his room.

if you ever become a parent come tell me again later
but yea, most parents have self-control if the children are willing to do it.
goodness, grandparents are something else though.

 

[Deleted member 13524]

If not, smelly kid can wait until his bday or next Xmas, shut up and go to his room.

Dude, you should bathe your hypothetical kid more often...

New PS4 was what, $399 at launch? I think up to $499 would be a perfectly fine price these days, if the value proposition is there to justify the cost. Maybe $449 if Sony wants to push it.

The great thing about the PS4 being $400 at launch was the XBone being $100 more.
If both consoles cost $500 at launch, I don't think either will get significantly less traction.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

well for early adopters yea. That strategy works, and pre-ordering is a completely different thing.

Early adopters will buy at any time - as long as they have the money. I'd wager the majority of early adopters aren't on a budget so saving isn't an issue but those that do, knowing before you blow your Christmas money is going to help.

If ps5 is 499$+taxes or even 599$ the sales are going to be limited compared to cheaper consoles. That's ok, ps4 is the real mass market/casual device for now.

I can envisage games being PS4/XBO/NextGen for a while - unlike the way PS3/360 support quickly dwindled following a handful of crossgen PS3/PS4 360/XBO games.

We know Microsoft's 'generationless' backwards/forwards compatible ecosystem so they are publicly anchored to this - but obviously have u-turned on key strategies before. PS4's future is less certain but historically Sony have continued to sell a lot of past-gen consoles after the new shiny is out. Sony's AAA games will almost certainly be crossgen as they have all have been announced for PS4 which means Sony could launch PS5 at a Xbox One X price point (or higher) leaving a cheaper PS4/Pro for those not wanting to spend that much.

 

[iroboto]

I can envisage games being PS4/XBO/NextGen for a while - unlike the way PS3/360 support quickly dwindled following a handful of crossgen PS3/PS4 360/XBO games.

We know Microsoft's 'generationless' backwards/forwards compatible ecosystem so they are publicly anchored to this - but obviously have u-turned on key strategies before. PS4's future is less certain but historically Sony have continued to sell a lot of past-gen consoles after the new shiny is out. Sony's AAA games will almost certainly be crossgen as they have all have been announced for PS4 which means Sony could launch PS5 at a Xbox One X price point (or higher) leaving a cheaper PS4/Pro for those not wanting to spend that much.

it's a weird discussion as we know games are going to be BC on next gen, especially with MS, they want to go into next gen with a long tail from this gen. I mean, just releasing the SAD is a discussion point in itself. I've been trying to think around this one, and honestly, ignoring price which I hope they can figure out, the only good thing about this console is that it would be better in countries in which brick and mortar stores aren't carrying all the titles etc. So thinking more like South America and parts of Asia as being better markets as the current consoles serve the major markets quite well.

But looking back again, if you don't quickly move everyone over to next gen, then we run into that issue of when we can see 'real' exclusives come out and push everyone to next gen if everyone is sitting back comfy on this generation hardware. I dunno, I think if Sony has a big lineup for PS5, I think this is the right way to approach the BC model, try to convince everyone to swap over with a large catalog of PS5 titles from the get go. It comes with some risk though if people don't transition over quickly you're going to be cashflow hurting for a bit.

If you anchor down like MS has with their BC model, and it looks like they're trying to make some sort of play all the games on any device mantra, I'm not sure how far they can stretch current gen without it interfering with their next gen product. They're definitely going to have to focus on that messaging this e3. On the other hand, they won't and they will need a large catalog of games ready for XBN; although they purchased a bunch of studios, the outlook is 4 years to release or year 2+ of next gen.

Or - there's just nothing to worry about. It's just going to be a longer and smoother transition and neither Sony or MS care because they profit whether you buy titles on PS4 or PS5.

 

[Deleted member 11852]

it's a weird discussion as we know games are going to be BC on next gen, especially with MS, they want to go into next gen with a long tail from this gen.

We know Microsoft's strategy, we've seen evidence of their impressive tech with 360 and original Xbox One games performing better on Xbox One S and crazily better on Xbox One X. This is the backwards/forwards part - mostly the latter. We don't know what Sony's backwards comaptibility will be. It could be bare bones in that PS5 will play PS4 games at PS4 (or Pro) performance level. I think this is most likely. They may be aiming higher. Until Sony demo it, we won't know. This could be a very important unknown.

But looking back again, if you don't quickly move everyone over to next gen, then we run into that issue of when we can see 'real' exclusives come out and push everyone to next gen if everyone is sitting back comfy on this generation hardware. I dunno, I think if Sony has a big lineup for PS5, I think this is the right way to approach the BC model, try to convince everyone to swap over with a large catalog of PS5 titles from the get go. It comes with some risk though if people don't transition over quickly you're going to be cashflow hurting for a bit.

There is no risk. Hardware is a means to an end, to get you into the ecosystem. Microsoft (or Sony) shouldn't care what hardware you own, but they need to provide hardware (or rather game performance) compelling for people to buy into their ecosystem, or at least not leave and continue spending in it.

People moving slower will save money. Margins (even assuming the margin is a profit and not a loss) on launch consoles are poor, the more people who buy early on the more manufacturer's lose.

If you anchor down like MS has with their BC model, and it looks like they're trying to make some sort of play all the games on any device mantra, I'm not sure how far they can stretch current gen without it interfering with their next gen product.

There will inevitably come a point when you need to drop active support for an older hardware configuration. But this is really a decision every developer and publisher goes through whenever the console market is in transition/migration or on the PC, every single day. The smart move is to support the older hardware as long as it's not inconvenient, i.e. you aren't cutting features because the old hardware can/t hack it. Let this happen organically, some games will still run on older consoles, some will not. The same as games and apps on PC and mobile devices. Consumers are now adjusted to this.

Or - there's just nothing to worry about. It's just going to be a longer and smoother transition and neither Sony or MS care because they profit whether you buy titles on PS4 or PS5.

This is my bet.