Sony: 2M PS3s shipped

[Mythos]

Launching on Nov 2005 with 1.5 mil, a year ahead of your competitors in all three major region, is different than launching in Nov 2006 in two region with 1.5 mil a year behind a competitor and week ahead of another. Furthermore, launching and having the next gen market all to yourself for a year is different than launching with a limited supply against two competitors who have ample supply.



That was the going perception but the going perception in the past was that the PS3 would dominate japan. Reality shows us a different picture, so dominating sales in Europe aren't assured.



Thats only post holiday production and in no way indicative of demand.

A bad launch is a bad launch. The X360 also had a limmited supply this is not a new phenomon. Launching early for the X360 is more of a must than an advantage since last gen the Xbox platform was underperforming. Time will tell if this was an advantage...

How can you make a causal connection between 2 totaly different markets (Japan&Europe)?

Demand of the PS3 at this early stage is more of a hypothesis that what may be the case..again the months ahead will gives us some understand towards the demand of the unit.

 

[dobwal]

A bad launch is a bad launch. The X360 also had a limmited supply this is not a new phenomon. Launching early for the X360 is more of a must than an advantage since last gen the Xbox platform was underperforming. Time will tell if this was an advantage...

A "good" launch isn't simply determined by launch numbers. The fact that the 360 launched in 2005 is preferable than the 360 launching in 2006 with 1.5 million. In fact launching in 2005 with 1.5 mil is preferable than launching in 2006 with 10.4 million 360s. The 2006 launch will have you selling more for Nov and Dec but demand isn't enough to sell all 8-10 million by Jan 1 2007 which the 2005 launch did for MS.

How can you make a causal connection between 2 totaly different markets (Japan&Europe)?

Im disputing a perception of the PS3 will do well in Europe simply because the PS2 did well. Its the same perception that people held in regards to PS3 and Japan. Different market places but also different conditions (2001 vs. 2007).

Demand of the PS3 at this early stage is more of a hypothesis that what may be the case..again the months ahead will gives us some understand towards the demand of the unit.

I agree.

 

[Mintmaster]

So far PS3 has done better than X360 for the same months released...we'll see how it unfolds...

The XB360 was ridiculously supply limited though. Have you ever seen a console sell more a year after launch with the same price? This year it's competing with PS3 and Wii, yet its sales went up drastically at the same price.

Comparing sales in terms of months after launch doesn't really make sense. The PS3 is now available (though the pent-up demand may not have completely dissipated yet), so we should look at current sales.

 

[mrcorbo]

They'll sell that many through roughly 6 years on the market. It's quite realistic. Personally, I'm one of those guys who wouldn't pay more than $299 for the 60GB PS3. Nevertheless, over time Sony will continue to pump out a million units a month and drop the price accordingly to sell them.

Sony's costs have been exagerated with the PS3. Long term their 60GB model costs are probably no more than $75 more than an X360 Premium build cost. They'll be able to market BR better when there are more HDTVs ad BR discs out there too.

I would just like to point out that manufacturing costs alone don't dictate at what point one of the vendors can sell a console and still be profitable overall. Unless Sony significantly closes the gap in content sales (encompassing disc-based as well as download-able content) MS can seriously undercut the PS3's price, taking a loss on the hardware if necessary, and still make money.

 

[quest55720]

A bad launch is a bad launch. The X360 also had a limmited supply this is not a new phenomon. Launching early for the X360 is more of a must than an advantage since last gen the Xbox platform was underperforming. Time will tell if this was an advantage...

I think the early launch being an advantage for MS has been answered a oh hell ya. MS had a year to build up a base that is willing to spend a ton of money on games. 3rd partys are begining to see this and moving projects that were former exclusives to multi console. With out the year head start MS would be in the same boat as the xbox with limited support. As long as the 360 use base continues to buy game after game more and more 3rd partys will come over. I have a feeling that after this holiday season that eastern developers will see the light and give the 360 much more support. It is clear traditional console gaming is on life support at best in japan and to make thier money back it will have to be in the west were MS has that great user base that loves to buy games. Can you imagine how the square/enix management must feel right now. They have a FF with what a 15 million plus budget on a machine that right now is not selling very well. They have to be sweating bullets right now.

 

[Accord1999]

The XB360 was ridiculously supply limited though. Have you ever seen a console sell more a year after launch with the same price? This year it's competing with PS3 and Wii, yet its sales went up drastically at the same price.

PS2.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

PS2 had GTA4 and MGS2 in 2001, among other things...

 

[scooby_dooby]

PS2.

Well actually the PS2 had price drops in both EU and JPN within a year.

Though, so has 360, at least in Japan. 360 has also introduced bundles everywhere, so they have had a pricedrop in a sense...

 

[Accord1999]

Well actually the PS2 had price drops in both EU and JPN within a year.

But not in USA/Canada.

 

[scooby_dooby]

But not in USA/Canada.

Nope, which is a testemant to the popularity of the PS2 over here, that it did not require a pricedrop for 18mths. I guess you could say the same for 360

 

[Mythos]

I think the early launch being an advantage for MS has been answered a oh hell ya. MS had a year to build up a base that is willing to spend a ton of money on games. 3rd partys are begining to see this and moving projects that were former exclusives to multi console. With out the year head start MS would be in the same boat as the xbox with limited support. As long as the 360 use base continues to buy game after game more and more 3rd partys will come over. I have a feeling that after this holiday season that eastern developers will see the light and give the 360 much more support. It is clear traditional console gaming is on life support at best in japan and to make thier money back it will have to be in the west were MS has that great user base that loves to buy games. Can you imagine how the square/enix management must feel right now. They have a FF with what a 15 million plus budget on a machine that right now is not selling very well. They have to be sweating bullets right now.

argumentum ad logicam....I agree that the X360 has made some business for itself, however what happens a year from now, or two, things can become bleak. Especially, when competing with both the Wii and PS3 and they have a good console supply and decent games. Then the year headstart can mean nothing. Only time will tell how the year head start plays out...I.E. Dreamcast.

Eastern developers are also seeing that when creating a game for the X360 a bump in sales intial and then a drop off is not a good sign..I.E. bluedragon. Especially when both the Wii and the PS3 is clearly out selling.

 

[Dave Baumann]

Eastern developers are also seeing that when creating a game for the X360 a bump in sales intial and then a drop off is not a good sign..I.E. bluedragon.

Like Capcom, you mean, thats already had two 1M title sellers on 360?

 

[Laa-Yosh]

At this moment the PS3 needs to sell at least 150,000* more units per month, every month, in the next 4 years just to catch up to the Xbox360. Right now it sems to do less then the Xbox, so the gap is actually increasing. Considering how the amount of exclusive titles for the X360 this year outnumbers Sony's offerings, the situation may not improve for a while.
Of course the EU launch may reverse this, even though I wonder if the news about the lack of US and Japan demand may have an effect here as well.

Nevertheless, this one year headstart actually means a lot.

* Assuming an installed base of 9 million / 1.5 million.

 

[Laa-Yosh]

Like Capcom, you mean, thats already had two 1M title sellers on 360?

And Blue Dragon hasn't even launched anywhere but in Japan.

Or, to add an even more stupid counter-argument, developers will steer away from the PS3 when they see how poorly its best title, Resistance has sold so far - have they even hit 500.000 yet?

 

[Mintmaster]

PS2.

I stand corrected. Of course, PS2 as a counterexample isn't exactly a bad omen for Microsoft.

Maybe it means Microsoft missed out on a couple hundred million dollars by not pricing it higher at launch, but it's pretty impressive that they've been able to sustain demand for so long at the $400 price point, especially last month alongside the Wii and PS3.

 

[Mythos]

Like Capcom, you mean, thats already had two 1M title sellers on 360?

Off the mark...In Japan.

 

[Mythos]

At this moment the PS3 needs to sell at least 150,000* more units per month, every month, in the next 4 years just to catch up to the Xbox360. Right now it sems to do less then the Xbox, so the gap is actually increasing. Considering how the amount of exclusive titles for the X360 this year outnumbers Sony's offerings, the situation may not improve for a while.
Of course the EU launch may reverse this, even though I wonder if the news about the lack of US and Japan demand may have an effect here as well.

Nevertheless, this one year headstart actually means a lot.

* Assuming an installed base of 9 million / 1.5 million.

You've answered it... Europe and Japan! Again we'll still don't know what will happen to their lead once they start competing..Here's a different scenerio...Wii outsells every one and the PS3 does what is expected of them...then the X360 comes in last place with the least market share. Again either scenerio we won't know until itz played out.

 

[MrFloopy]

Off the mark...In Japan.

I would think this just means that eastern publishers are going to have to follow Capcom's lead and look for a broader market. There certainly seems to be a strong worldwide demand for their games. If they continue to have a domestic approach to publishing then they are obviously going to have difficulties with a changing industry.

While there will still be a market for domestic only games, I think the publishers that think globally sooner rather than later are going to do better and not just for 360 games.

 

[quest55720]

argumentum ad logicam....I agree that the X360 has made some business for itself, however what happens a year from now, or two, things can become bleak. Especially, when competing with both the Wii and PS3 and they have a good console supply and decent games. Then the year headstart can mean nothing. Only time will tell how the year head start plays out...I.E. Dreamcast.

Eastern developers are also seeing that when creating a game for the X360 a bump in sales intial and then a drop off is not a good sign..I.E. bluedragon. Especially when both the Wii and the PS3 is clearly out selling.

I am talking in the west were blue dragon has not been released. Japan is almost meaningless to the traditional console right now. It is clear unless something changes traditional gaming in japan is almost dead even the mighty PS3 had not been able to break this. The signs so far say that western 360 gamers are more than willing to by eastern games by the sales of dead rising and lost planet.

How can this head start turn out bad? Anything that would happen bad now would of happened anyways. Lets not compare the dreamcast to any other console. Sega had no money and no EA sports games while it had great games it had no chance against the PS2. There is no downside to the head start right now. They got a bigger userbase and more software support by launching early now down side I can see. You think MS would of had any chance launching against the PS3 and the Wii this year? The 360 would of been forgotten about just like the original xbox. Instead MS was able to put together a damn good library of games to compete against the launching Wii and PS3.

 

[Mintmaster]

Only time will tell how the year head start plays out...I.E. Dreamcast.

It's already looking very different from Dreamcast.

DC only managed 2.5M sales before PS2 was launched, whereas XB360 managed 8-9M.

DC never outsold PS2 even despite the heavy supply limitation of the latter, whereas XB360 outsold PS3 despite being the fastest selling Playstation in history according to Sony. January NA numbers will be telling since both PS3 and XB360 are widely available, but right now it doesn't seem like PS3 will outsell XB360.