PS3 slim in 2009, rejoice or too early?

[zed]

Kinda felt the need to bump up this thread after the November NPD....i dont know...but the 360 outselling the Slim does not bode well for Sony

remember NPD == the US, not the world
the Only other country where we have the numbers for is japan, + if u add those together then nov ps3 > xb360 by ~100k.
The best indication of how well the ps3 has done is when we get the numbers shipped for the 4th quarter of the year, It prolly wont do as many as the wii last year 10.41 but could achieve ~8million, which would mean theyl should easily hit their target of 12/13 million for the year which many here said was impossible

 

[Silent_Buddha]

remember NPD == the US, not the world
the Only other country where we have the numbers for is japan, + if u add those together then nov ps3 > xb360 by ~100k.
The best indication of how well the ps3 has done is when we get the numbers shipped for the 4th quarter of the year, It prolly wont do as many as the wii last year 10.41 but could achieve ~8million, which would mean theyl should easily hit their target of 12/13 million for the year which many here said was impossible

November isn't exactly a good indication that any of them are going to hit 8 million for Q4. I still think it's pretty impossible for PS3 to hit their original target for this year.

But that isn't to say they don't come out well considering how badly they were doing up until the price cut.

Regards,
SB

 

[eastmen]

I'm split on this. Its obviously helped sony as they are actually selling ps3s again at a good clip esp in the states.

however I don't this will have the lasting apeal that sony would hope for. I think it simply came to early and is not a small enough shrink.

When weighed against future possiblitys I think it was a large gamble that sony may have gambled wrongly on

 

[joker454]

Quite frankly I am very doubtful of the motion control introductions for these 2 consoles.

I think the motion controls can work, but there is so much they both can do wrong to screw it all up. Personally I think they must do all of these points:

1) Have a sku that has the motion controller as a pack in. Without that they are wasting their time.
2) Above sku *must* be cheap. It must be $199, or at most $249. If they go >= $299 then they are stillborn.
3) Launch with lots of good motion ready games, both to hit hard at launch and to show that they are serious about supporting motion controls. Anything less and they will be viewed as an accessory and mostly ignored.
4) Do not motion-i-fy existing games. They must have new games tailored to these new controllers and tailored to a new audience. If they just adapt existing games or if they try to target the hardcore gamers then it will be a failure.

I feel they *must* hit all of the above, if they miss even one of those then I think they will fail. It can be done though, assuming that both companies have learned anything from history. If it works it will buy them 2 years after which they can launch their new machines. During those 2 years they can flesh out any issues with the motion controls this gen, and then launch with further refined motion controls in every sku next gen.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I agree with all those points except 4, where I think motion-i-fying existing games (in addition to custom motion-designed titles) could be a serious plus. KZ2 with motion targeting would showcase the controller for shooters without potential wand-buyers having to shell out on a new game. Likewise LBP and EyePet would attract existing game owners to buy the peripheral. Sony would want an XMB update that provides worthwhile motion interactions, like the old slide-your-photos-around-with-a-wave-of-you-hand type control for media browsing and selection. Thus the price of entry would only be a new peripheral, instead of peripheral+game pack-in. If the wand launches with only a few motion titles, I'd be more likely to wait-and-see rather than buy a new IP I am uncertain about, whereas if it offers a better experience for my existing games, I'd be much more likely to try it as I'd be more likely to find it offering something I want.

 

[PARANOiA]

Does NPD even track the stores that had the "$99 360" deal? Because if not the margin would likely have been wider.

Having said that, I think the Slim has done wonders for Sony. If they waited until 2010 it would likely have been a case of too little, too late for Sony this gen, falling behind even more. I know a lot of people who picked up the Slim (including me!) that otherwise would not have bothered. It has breathed new life into the system that would not have been there otherwise.

Having said that it's neither here nor there since both the PS3 and 360 are being vastly outsold by the Wii - as a wise man once said, the console war is over. There's a strong battle for second place but it's moot.

 

[woundingchaney]

Does NPD even track the stores that had the "$99 360" deal? Because if not the margin would likely have been wider.

Having said that, I think the Slim has done wonders for Sony. If they waited until 2010 it would likely have been a case of too little, too late for Sony this gen, falling behind even more. I know a lot of people who picked up the Slim (including me!) that otherwise would not have bothered. It has breathed new life into the system that would not have been there otherwise.

Having said that it's neither here nor there since both the PS3 and 360 are being vastly outsold by the Wii - as a wise man once said, the console war is over. There's a strong battle for second place but it's moot.

AFAIK NPD estimates sales for Wal-mart and other such stores that they do not get hard data on. So they have accounted for such marketing and price incentives, but their estimate is of course not as accurate as it could be if actual data was present. Regardless, given NPD's pedigree and track record it should be realistic to believe that their released numbers are acceptable reflections of the month's sales.

 

[patsu]

It's generally harder to estimate special promos, especially if there's no precedence. Then again, no one can argue whether NPD overshot or underestimated the numbers since well... no one has *all* the real data anyway. So it's probably best to stick to the estimates, and discuss general trends.

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Having said that it's neither here nor there since both the PS3 and 360 are being vastly outsold by the Wii - as a wise man once said, the console war is over. There's a strong battle for second place but it's moot.

With regards to hardware, that's the case. But it's a bit more arguable with regards to software sales.

Wii may have a slight lead there due to the massive sales they got while the Wii was still the hot "must have" fad item. But even then I don't think X360 was that far behind, and recently X360 software has been selling overall better than Wii I think.

As to the rest. I really don't see any negatives to the Slim launch + price reduction. It's boosted sales going into a critical sales season and restored some confidence in the console (at least in the US).

Regards,
SB

 

[PARANOiA]

Wii may have a slight lead there due to the massive sales they got while the Wii was still the hot "must have" fad item. But even then I don't think X360 was that far behind, and recently X360 software has been selling overall better than Wii I think.

Not to derail but the latest NPD's show quite clearly the Wii "fad" is far from over!

 

[Silent_Buddha]

Heh, if it once again starts to sell MORE than X360 and PS3 combined again, I'll revisit that. But right now it's selling just like a normal console. December should see good numbers (kid and family console after all) but doubt it'll go back to the yearly numbers it was posting before this year.

Regards,
SB

 

[PARANOiA]

I'll just politely agree to disagree with you on this point. If not selling more than both competitors combined automatically makes it a fad then I think possibly you're setting the bar too high! I'm sure both Sony and MS would love to be posting those sort of fad numbers.

 

[fearsomepirate]

If selling more than a million in November is normal for a console, does that mean Sony and MS are doomed and should go software-only? Because neither of them broke a million.

 

[Arwin]

I understand where you are coming from, in terms of where the Wii has been and in the context of its pricecut. However, as it stands now the Wii can lose a great deal of sales and still remain a mainstream console with healthy sales and market share.

As for the PS3, last year the 360 sold 800.000 and the PS3 300.000 - that's half a million difference! This year that difference decreased to 100.000 ... that's a huge improvement. If sales stay that close in December, then the PS3 has definitely made huge strides forward on hte U.S. market.

Heh, if it once again starts to sell MORE than X360 and PS3 combined again, I'll revisit that. But right now it's selling just like a normal console. December should see good numbers (kid and family console after all) but doubt it'll go back to the yearly numbers it was posting before this year.

Regards,
SB

 

[Silent_Buddha]

I understand where you are coming from, in terms of where the Wii has been and in the context of its pricecut. However, as it stands now the Wii can lose a great deal of sales and still remain a mainstream console with healthy sales and market share.

As for the PS3, last year the 360 sold 800.000 and the PS3 300.000 - that's half a million difference! This year that difference decreased to 100.000 ... that's a huge improvement. If sales stay that close in December, then the PS3 has definitely made huge strides forward on hte U.S. market.

Absolutely agreed. Right now all 3 consoles are seeing healthy sales, and the release of the slim + price cut is the main reason I can even say that about the PS3 right now.

WRT the Wii in specific, the only thing I was noting was that the Wii has dropped from the rarified air of the "must have fad" device back down to just being another one of the consoles, which you thing pick between depending on your needs/wants...

Similar to past fads like the Tomogotchi, or pet rock, or right now with the snuggie, cabbage patch dolls, or... It's one of those rare items that hit just the right strings with consumers at a certain point in time, gaining enough momemtum that it became a must have item.

As with previous items like that it's finally fallen back to sales comparable to the genre it's in. This isn't to say that it may not continue to outsell the other two consoles, but it's not going to see that "must have" mystique that it had for a few years.

Regards,
SB

 

[Silent_Buddha]

I'll just politely agree to disagree with you on this point. If not selling more than both competitors combined automatically makes it a fad then I think possibly you're setting the bar too high! I'm sure both Sony and MS would love to be posting those sort of fad numbers.

Hmmm, I think there's a bit of a disconnect here. I think you're assuming that being a "fad" and a "must have item" are bad things.

Quite the contrary, it's absolutely incredible that it was able to go to those levels and sustain it for a few years, before dropping back to being just another console.

And that also doesn't mean it might or might not once again outsell the competition or that it won't outsell the competition from time to time.

BTW - once again, I'm looking at yearly numbers. I fully expect the Wii to outsell the other consoles during the Holiday season. It is after all the console far more targetted at families and kids than either of the other two, making a far better (and safer) gift in most cases.

But when looked at from a yearly perspective, it's currently not really performaning head and shoulders over the competition. And in fact unlike past years when it was considered the must have item and there was no competition to speak of as it completely dominated sales.

Regards,
SB

 

[tuna]

WRT the Wii in specific, the only thing I was noting was that the Wii has dropped from the rarified air of the "must have fad" device back down to just being another one of the consoles, which you thing pick between depending on your needs/wants...

Similar to past fads like the Tomogotchi, or pet rock, or right now with the snuggie, cabbage patch dolls, or... It's one of those rare items that hit just the right strings with consumers at a certain point in time, gaining enough momemtum that it became a must have item.

As with previous items like that it's finally fallen back to sales comparable to the genre it's in. This isn't to say that it may not continue to outsell the other two consoles, but it's not going to see that "must have" mystique that it had for a few years.

Regards,
SB

I would say the Wii is more like Pokemon and it will still be going strong in years to come.