Michael McConnell, semiconductor analyst with Pacific Crest, today chopped his price target on Nvidia (NVDA) to $33 from $45, and trimmed his profit and revenue outlook for the company. McConnell went to $1.67 a share from $1.77 for the January 2008 fiscal year; he remains at $1.40 for fiscal 2007.
“Our latest survey indicates that Vista component demand forecasts to the supply chain from Dell and HP (HPQ) have weakened over the past three weeks,” he wrote in a research note. In Dell’s case, he blames “excess component inventory and competitive share losses.” In the case of HP, he says “concerns over the price premium for Vista PCs.”
His bottom line on this issue: “Investors are likely to lower their expectations for the effects of the operating system in the near term, resulting in a subsequent headwind for PC semiconductor stocks…such as Nvidia.”
He also said that despite recent microprocessor price cuts, graphics card sales into the channel “have shown no signs of a rebound leading into Chinese New Year, with add-in board partners missing sales forecasts in January after very weak sales in December.” Another potential issue for Nvidia: “the lukewarm consumer reception to Sony’s
(SNE) Playstation 3. “Sony royalties garnered by Nvidia from the PS3 build are expected to be the primary driver of Nvidia’s gross-margin expansion in fiscal 2008,” he writes. “Although poor manufacturing yields on Blu-Ray diodes were the initial cause of PS3 unit constraints at retailers, we have seen evidence of weaker-than-expected consumer demand as availability has improved, likely stemming form overly high prices at retailers and a lack of compelling game titles.”