Hypothetical: Grand Theft Auto VI Exclusivity

Discussion in 'Console Industry' started by Shortbread, Sep 29, 2020.

  1. Shortbread

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    For good or bad, there is no denying the Grand Theft Auto series is king of kings when it comes to action-adventure open-world gaming, both in terms of revenue dollars (~12B) and unit sales (325M).

    Hypothetically, what if Sony or Microsoft has a Grand Theft Auto VI exclusivity deal within place with Take-Two/Rockstar? How does the platform holder without the exclusive deal combat such a title? A title that can easily move system sales rapidly, especially when the competing platforms mayn’t see the title for awhile.

    I personally can’t see GTA fans holding off regardless of the platform and exclusivity time-length.

    Please no responses that “it will never happen” or that "Take-Two will lose a lot of money by doing so.” This is just a hypothetical scenario on which game titles or tactics (i.e., system price reduction, huge game sales, etc.) could be used on combating such a juggernaut exclusive.
     
    #1 Shortbread, Sep 29, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2020
  2. Karamazov

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    i could see a few months exclusivity, but the game is too big now to release only on one plateform.
     
  3. Shortbread

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    Let's say three months tops... released during the holiday season. How do you compete with that?
     
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  4. Malo

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    I think if the price is right, Take Two would do anything for money.
     
  5. Karamazov

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    with exclusive content when the game finally releases on your console maybe ?
    GTA6 should have long legs just like GTA5, so 3 months would not hurt that much in the long run, i guess if Sony has a time exclusivity, MS would have some graphical advantages, enough to make XsX fans wait for this version.
     
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  6. Shortbread

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    [​IMG]
     
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  7. SlmDnk

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    It is my understanding that many of the good folk have left Rockstar, and that makes me very dubious of the goodness and quality of a possible GTA VI.
     
  8. Shortbread

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    Didn't affect Red Dead Redemption 2. And I'm pretty sure there are plenty of skilled storywriters and game directors over at R*.
     
  9. manux

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    Let's say gta next looses 100 million sales because of exclusivity. Let's assume rockstar would have gotten 30$ per sale money and the exclusivity deal at least covers lost 3 billion of revenue. Though I wouldn't do exclusivity to just make same as I would otherwise while loosing goodwill from players and the excluded party.

    As a competitor I would use that 3billion I didn't use to buy exclusivity to lower my consoles price with 100$. That would let me sell next 30 million consoles on the cheap, gain volume and reduce price further. Those cheaper consoles would likely be better way to get win over generation than getting gta exclusivity.

    But in reality, this is just silly and pointless. Things go as they go, sales and market share ebb&flow. PC didn't go anywhere despite not having gta for longest time.
     
    #9 manux, Sep 29, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2020
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  10. Silent_Buddha

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    You don't, you just ignore it. Especially in a launch year, it'll have absolutely no effect, your console is likely going to sell out anyway.

    After the launch year, again, you ignore it. Assuming other good titles are coming out, people will still buy your platform although there might be some slight impacts depending on season. In general the worst that will happen for a 3 month exclusivity deal is that your competitor gets a boost in hardware sales. We saw this with Steam vs. EGS for RDR 2. Yeah, some people jumped on it for EGS, but since they knew Steam was coming shortly, most people waited for it to hit Steam. 406k on EGS the first month. Then when it hit Steam, it sold over 1 million copies on Steam.

    The point where it may have some notable impact is if the period of exclusivity is unknown, a year, or indefinitely. At that point if you have to play a title then you have no choice but to get the other platform.

    I'm not sure whether it negatively affects the platform that it won't be on, however. Just because one platform gets a boost in sales doesn't necessarily mean it comes at the expense (a significant impact versus a negligible one) of the other platform. Especially if it's only for 1 game.

    I think that's where quality first party exclusives are key. Not because they aren't on the other platform, but it guarantees that no matter what happens there's always a quality title available on your platform.

    Regards,
    SB
     
  11. DSoup

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    Unless you wanted to mount your horse and not punch the guy next to it! I just re-dipped into GTA V and couldn't believe how convoluted the control mechanism was coming back to it. RDR2 went even further so I am also not optimistic that GTI VI would be better in this regard.

    And RDR2 still has that flaw impacting Rockstar North games for a decade in that it will try to impart critical knowledge, required for the next seventy hours, with a two-second onscreen popup while you are trying to fight off six bears. I still don't understand how this crap makes it past Q&A.

    My love of, and re-playability of, Rockstar North games (GTA, Red Dead), has greatly diminished over time. Their attention to detail and soundtracks may be second to none, but it feels like their UI folks and control scheme designers never bought another console after PS2. :|
     
  12. Shortbread

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    I think you can't just ignore it. Especially, when YouTubers, Twitch streamers and other popular social media sites are constantly pumping out content about the latest and greatest games to have - the ones that you and your friends should be playing now (not tomorrow). Hence, Sony and Microsoft courting social media influencers more than ever.

    Most PC gamers who had RDR 2 on the PS4/XBO didn't mind waiting for the Steam version because they already played it. Plus, GTA is a whole other beast, RDR numbers just can't compete.

    I agree first-party titles are key on supporting the longevity of a platform. However, having GTA VI as an exclusive, even temporarily, will drive social media messaging that "system A" is the hottest product to have.
     
    #12 Shortbread, Sep 29, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2020
  13. iroboto

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    It would be a huge get for sure, and possibly determine the outcome of this generation. Timed exclusivity would still be a big deal. If the intention is to pay the amount to go exclusive though, you may as well buy the studio lol

    GTA does seem to be quite the phenomenon, a bit like Minecraft in how it encapsulates more than just a game, but rather a platform. It would pretty insane to get this exclusive, when compared to Minecraft, even after purchasing it, they still let it stay multiplatform. It just seems to generate so much profit it would be hard to deny it to gain more customers.
     
    #13 iroboto, Sep 29, 2020
    Last edited: Sep 29, 2020
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  14. Shortbread

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    This. So much this.
     
  15. Rangers

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    Over such a scenario the losses would be sustainable IMO. It wouldn't affect the overall trajectory of things. Especially in a likely supply constrained holiday, you wouldn't actually change hardware units shifted much. And everybody buying the console without the game, would know they dont have to wait long.

    But in my opinion the biggest franchises are the biggest franchises specifically because they're multiplatform. I feel like developers are more creative when they're vying for every sale, dont have a 1st party safety net, etc.

    I guess in that respect I'm trying to say MS Bethesda acquisition probably won't fare all that well.
     
  16. Jay

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    Biggest in terms of overall revenue and sales sure.
    But I find it hard to believe that anyone would say that Sony 1P games aren't big or creative, regardless of personal opinion about them.

    In terms of competing and creativity, it's probably easier to be creative when you don't have to make sure your hugely financially successful, can take more risks.
     
  17. AlphaWolf

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    I can't see anyone getting the value out of what it would cost them. Rock* knows what it would be worth for them, I don't see a scenario where they would consider an offer below that amount and I would actually expect they would want a premium just like if you wanted to buy them entirely.
     
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  18. eastmen

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    Depends on when it comes out ? Does it come out when MS is dropping starfield of elder scrolls ? Sony releasing God of war or another big game ? For us it would come out of the blue but I am sure MS and Sony as platform holders would have an idea of when it hit so they could prepare.

    Take 2 is 19b . MS could stretch and buy it although i think its out of the range they want. Sony would be out of the running there.
     
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  19. AlphaWolf

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    To acquire them via buyout would probably push the price over $30 billion.
     
  20. PSman1700

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    Probably not worth it.... MS could buy a whole lot more studios for that, which they probably will as long term investments. For the PS2 GTA3, Vice City and San Andreas where timed exclusives, though only by 6 months as the PC got them after that timeframe. I think the Xbox didnt get them before end of 2003. A rather long time for the best selling games of the 6th generation.
     
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