PS3, Holiday 2006
- Thread starter coredump
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mckmas8808
Legend
Hardknock said:
Most people even 360 supports don't agree that MS can 'overthrow' Sony next-gen.
mckmas8808 said:
And why not?
The majority presumed PSP would crush the inferior DS.
The majority predicted Xbox would flop and not sell.
Nobody thought Sony(with zero experience in videogames) would topple Sega and Nintendo.
You guys continue on with your "predictions". And I'll just sit back and enjoy the show
randycat99
Veteran
Hardknock said:
Essentially, the point regresses to "stating the obvious". Very well it is certain to be true, but the additional implications you had attached to it earlier are similarly stripped away, if the metric was simply referencing "install base".
Actually, it is quite the opposite. The "hardcore" will buy whatever is most "impressive" of that generation, or they may very well buy all 3 brands (assuming there are 3 brands). The legions of "casuals" will likely buy the brand they bought before, if the experiences where satisfactory and pleasant. Additionally, their choice may simply be influenced by whatever everybody else is buying, in order to "stay with the herd".
Actually, you are implying just that with your "everything starts at zero" theory. Can't have it both ways.
Developer support will naturally follow where greatest sales occurred in the current generation.
Successful marketing strategies from the current generation will naturally be reapplied in the coming generation.
The range of pricepoints where people "bite" are well delineated in past generations and will naturally follow in the coming generation.
None of these examples you've given really had anything to do with things "resetting" at the turn of a generation. It was a silly point to attempt to extend beyond the simple essence of "install base".
Nothing is certain, but it certainly gives suggestion of a trend. Myraid other factors seems to accompany this facet, as well, to suggest the trend is plausible to continue.
You should not dismiss the views of others as "fear of change" simply because they do not match up with your own. It's just quite possible that people believe what they believe for reasons spanning far beyond the narrow marginalization of "fear of change".
You do seem far more concerned of this than you let on.
...as well the converse if MS seemingly doesn't make the headway you so desparately wish. You seem to only be able to acknowledge "hissy fits" from one side, while in reality, you are surrounded by it from all sides (including your own). If you could simply calm the rhetoric stance, people could certainly take your views with less suspicion.
You're more than welcome to have your own over-optimistic views of Microsoft's chances in the next generation, Hardknock, but it's really not reasonable to assume or expect anybody else to share that optimism.
Is it possible? Of course it is. Is it probable? Not a chance in hell. Microsoft, had they played their cards differently, may very well have taken the crown from Sony. However going on what they've given us (and what's in store for the future) I'd say it's more than reasonable to expect Sony to crush them again.
But as I said, you're welcome to view the situation however you like, against the grain or not. Just don't expect others to share your views, that's all.
Is it possible? Of course it is. Is it probable? Not a chance in hell. Microsoft, had they played their cards differently, may very well have taken the crown from Sony. However going on what they've given us (and what's in store for the future) I'd say it's more than reasonable to expect Sony to crush them again.
But as I said, you're welcome to view the situation however you like, against the grain or not. Just don't expect others to share your views, that's all.
!eVo!-X Ant UK
Banned
coredump said:
Before you say they have it in the bag, can you have a read of this first
http://www.gamespot.com/forums/show_msgs.php?topic_id=23901516
Real opinion's of people have have played the system ( and its GS system wars i know *cries* )
As the months go by Microsoft are sealing there own fate.
1. Launching on MTV was a bad idea, not many game's were shown and the one's that were hardly looked next gen
2. Being Raped by Sony @ E3, yes credit to Microsoft they had playable games but they had crappy frame rates. Now those to compared to the PS3 tech demo's Stole ALOT of 360's thunder
3. Dev's saying there is'nt enough disk space, Some games Laucnh are on 2 disk's so just think how many disk's second or third gerantion games will require.
4. And there BIGGEST mistake was having the machine playable in wallamrt, i have not seen 1 comment yet about how they were blown away by the machine or the graphics, it has been the oposite.....complete and utter dissapointment from EVERY1 who has played it.
Microsoft are treding thinly on there own ice, If Hideo were to release a different piece of MGS4 footage at this moment in time, or within the next month. 360's would be in serious trouble
*My view's so take how you like*
!eVo!-X Ant UK said:
You has just summed up the whole situation for MS there but I just would like the add that the fact they are the one that start the talk about how HD is very significant next gen and yet they didnt include a HD palyer in their system. But i think the 360 will fair alot better compared to the xbox.
You know you are really starting to become annoying. Please play the semantic game with someone else. Starting at zero references the install base, but is not all inclusive. I listed my reasons later in my message which you even addressed, so I don't understand how anything was "stripped away."
The hardcore(meaning the most die-hard fans for that particular brand, be it Xbox or Playstation) will snatch up the console at launch regardless of games, price or anything. The F@nboys you see on message boards for example. Mainstream will go with whats most popular(which isn't necessarily going to be the PS3 buddy), and the most popular console always comes from the games available. Not because of any name-brand loyalty.
God, it's not rocket science. THE PAST HAS SHOWED THAT EVERYONE STARTS AT ZERO AND NOTHING IS GUARANTEED. It's becoming really tiresome to have to walk you through every single point made.
They also naturally follow the current install base aswell. Having a 5 to 10 million lead is nothing to snuff at. If devs only went by potential install base, sure Sony would have this in the bag, but they are trying to make the most money.
What an idiotic comment. Who's to say the "successful marketing strategies" from this gen will be as successful next-gen? Who's to say MS doesn't market there's better? It's no where near as clear cut as you are making it seem.
What the fuck are you talking about here? The general consensus is PS3 will be more expensive, thus MS having the price advantage. No doubt PS3 will drop in price, but it's also important who can reach the more affordable price points first.
Well I'm sorry it was too much for you to wrap your head around. I'll try taking baby steps with you next time
And you have practically no knowledge of PS3 in the first place to "suggest" anything. You are only making yourself look foolish. Your blind corporate allegiance is clouding your judgement that Sony can do no wrong. But you continue to think that, like I said before, I play games not consoles buddy so I don't care who comes out on top
Ok now you're starting to piss me off. "Desparately wish" my ass. You don't fucking know what I want or anything about me. I have never stated I think Xbox 360 will dominate. I'm only pointing out flawed logic in other's arguement about PS3, they simply have nothing concrete to backup their claims and your counterpoints to mine are quite ridiculous to say the least. I think I'm on the right side of the fence when I say nothing is for certain, why you continue to want to argue back in forth with me that PS3 will dominate is beyond me. Because I don't really care, believe whatever you want to. I've never said that won't be the case, just pointing out that it's not impossible for it to be the complete opposite from what you so "desperately wish."
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Gholbine said:
See this is exactly what I'm talking about. We know pratically nothing about PS3 and you've already made up your mind. People have done this numerous times before about things in this industry only to wind up with egg on their face. Like I said originally, don't write MS off just yet.
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!eVo!-X Ant UK
Banned
Mintmaster said:
That made me laugh, because R500 does'nt either.
1. You really belive that games dont use vertex shader's thus leaving R500 with all it's 48 ALU's just shading... LOL
2. I bet you £100 that 1 of the pixel shader's in RSX is more poweful than 1-2 shader's in R500
3. And also remeber that RSX has over DOULBLE the shader op's per second of R500.
What i think tends to derail these threads into a micro analysis of some aspect of console sales is that everyone on these threads assume that they are the representative consumer.
Believe me when i say that everyone does not think like the poeople that post in here. In North America my guess is that 70% of the potential customers are 'up for grabs'. They are going to look at the games, look at the price, then look at everything else.
The 360 had to launch first this gen to have a real fighting chance. If not it would ahve been a real uphill battle from the beginning and one that probably would have landed them in only a slightly better position than they are now. Launching first forces everyone to look hard at the 360 in the next gen and put aside brand loyalty for a moment.
I work with several people who are gamers and currently own PS2s. They saw some HD video of NBA2k6 and guess what, theyre not waiting a year to play that game, they want to play it NOW. Thats the whole idea of an early launch and thats what i think MOST of the consumers are like, they wont fight tooth and nail for a console, theyll go where the games are and where the price is.
So MS has the floor to themselves for a good 6-9 months before Sony starts ramping up to their launch. They are probably going to sell a LOT of consoles between now and then. As another poster estimated, the 360 could have from 10-14million sold by this time next year. Does that matter, YES it does. Will it have decided the console war, NO it wont. But now youre having developers look at the 360 as possibly leading the install base stat for awhile, and that could bring games from Sony to Microsoft. Its not definite but thats the whole strategy of an early launch.
The big fight is holiday 2006. What will Sony have at launch? What will the PS3 cost? What will the CORE system cost? Will halo 3 be coming out then? Will MGS4 be released then?
Thats the huge clash, the battle for holiday 2006. If the 360 can take Sonys best shot with a combination of price, numerous high quality 2nd gen games, and not lose a lot of ground they made by launching early, then we'll really have a 'war' on our hands.
Believe me when i say that everyone does not think like the poeople that post in here. In North America my guess is that 70% of the potential customers are 'up for grabs'. They are going to look at the games, look at the price, then look at everything else.
The 360 had to launch first this gen to have a real fighting chance. If not it would ahve been a real uphill battle from the beginning and one that probably would have landed them in only a slightly better position than they are now. Launching first forces everyone to look hard at the 360 in the next gen and put aside brand loyalty for a moment.
I work with several people who are gamers and currently own PS2s. They saw some HD video of NBA2k6 and guess what, theyre not waiting a year to play that game, they want to play it NOW. Thats the whole idea of an early launch and thats what i think MOST of the consumers are like, they wont fight tooth and nail for a console, theyll go where the games are and where the price is.
So MS has the floor to themselves for a good 6-9 months before Sony starts ramping up to their launch. They are probably going to sell a LOT of consoles between now and then. As another poster estimated, the 360 could have from 10-14million sold by this time next year. Does that matter, YES it does. Will it have decided the console war, NO it wont. But now youre having developers look at the 360 as possibly leading the install base stat for awhile, and that could bring games from Sony to Microsoft. Its not definite but thats the whole strategy of an early launch.
The big fight is holiday 2006. What will Sony have at launch? What will the PS3 cost? What will the CORE system cost? Will halo 3 be coming out then? Will MGS4 be released then?
Thats the huge clash, the battle for holiday 2006. If the 360 can take Sonys best shot with a combination of price, numerous high quality 2nd gen games, and not lose a lot of ground they made by launching early, then we'll really have a 'war' on our hands.
!eVo!-X Ant UK
Banned
All said and done its all about how many console's are available at launch, how many is microsoft turning out a month???? Sony have a good 6 month's+ of bashing PS3's together so they should have a huge amount of console's ready for launch.
mckmas8808
Legend
expletive said:
Didn't MS say that they expect to sell between 4.5 and 5.5 million consoles by June? So if the PS3 comes out in lets say September of 2006 (very reasonable) The Xbox 360 wouldn't have no more than a 8 to 9 million unit head start worldwide if you take out want Sony would have sold by then in Japan early that Spring.
I heard from plenty of people that Sony could drop 1 million PS3's in Japan on launch day and sell out of everyone. That's something that the X360 just can't do in Japan.
mckmas8808
Legend
PC-Engine said:
Sony only released 200K units in Japan too so...
mckmas8808 said:
Instead of me paraphrasing from memory, heres the original quote, slightly different than what i remembered:
Laa-Yosh said:However, developers and publishers of the big 3rd party franchises may have to face a tough decision in the late 2006/ early 2007 timeframe. At this time, if all goes well for Microsoft, there may be 8 to 15 million Xbox360s sold; whereas Sony may still be under 5 million, maybe even 3 million, if they would indeed start in the US and Europe in late 2006. (Note the two "if"s before you start to reply
There are of course many other factors that have to be considered here by the publishers. Their costumers may be loyal to the Playstation brand and releasing a FF game on the Xbox could turn into a financial disaster. Betraying Sony in such a way could also have consequences. It's also safe to assume that PS3 will sell very well from mid 2007 and reach a very large user base by 2008.
On the other hand, if the market actually turns out to be that way, then there would be a huge potential for the first (few) big franchises released on the Xbox. We do not yet know all the X360 games in development, but it's a safe bet that most of them are from the same devs and franchises that we know from the first Xbox - so there's certainly room for well-known names. For all we know, these studios might already be watching each others' moves... and who knows how many would follow, if one decides to go for it.
And for all the politics and fan expectations, next gen development is still heavily driven by money. 10-20-50 million dollar projects won't break even with sales under a million copies, and both studios and publishers are driven by businessmen, who probably care more about the math and the balance sheet.
So, in my opinion, software will be the most important factor with this gen as well; but a larger installed base in 2006/2007 may give MS an advantage in that field as well.
I dont think MS expects to or even has the capability to, sell 1 million 360s on launch in Japan though...
To be honest, theres no way MS is beating Sony in Japan this gen. They should shoot for NA and at least being a real 'player' in Japan this generation. Coming in 2nd in Japan this gen would be a tremendous achievement imo.
mckmas8808
Legend
expletive said:
There's no way the Xbox 360 could come in second place. Ok there is a chance but that chance is super small. Everybody keeps forgetting that the Revolution is also coming out in 2006. MS has to beat Nintendo in Japan first.
MS sold 114 Xboxes last week in Japan. Freaking 114. Come on.
http://www.m-create.com/jpn/s_ranking.html
Hardknock is not the only one being "over-optimistic" here. How has Sony "crushed" the XBOX program by the way?? IMHO MS has been very successful in getting to where they are now, and continue to push Sony to do better.
I was surprised to see the PS2 failed to live up to the graphics displayed prior to the systems launch. I was disappointed when Sony continually pushed back the system's online play. IMHO moves such as this allowed MS to offer something better. It will be this choice of something better/equal to/or comparable with the PS3 at launch that will help MS gain market share.
One thing is for sure, in this next generation Sony will not be allowed to simply over hype the PS3. They will need to produce, and cannot rest on their name brand alone. Who do you have to thank for that? You got it, their "crushed" competition.
I was surprised to see the PS2 failed to live up to the graphics displayed prior to the systems launch. I was disappointed when Sony continually pushed back the system's online play. IMHO moves such as this allowed MS to offer something better. It will be this choice of something better/equal to/or comparable with the PS3 at launch that will help MS gain market share.
One thing is for sure, in this next generation Sony will not be allowed to simply over hype the PS3. They will need to produce, and cannot rest on their name brand alone. Who do you have to thank for that? You got it, their "crushed" competition.
mckmas8808
Legend
zRifle1z said:
But Sony didn't just over hype the PS2 to sell the most consoles this time around either did they?
Hardknock said:
I will happily accept an "egg on my face" if the PS3 doesn't take the next generation sales crown. As I said, I admit the possibility of victory for the 360, but realistically it just won't happen, and I think this assumption is far more reasonable than even pretending that the Xbox 360 will win.
Judging by many of the posts you've made around here, I think it's pretty safe to assume that you 'lean' towards the Xbox 360, and your desire to see it succeed is not surprising. Personally I hope the Xbox 360 does give the PS3 a big run for its money, because competition is only good for us gamers.
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