PS3, Holiday 2006

[expletive]

Yeah, but the PS2 headstart meant developers had no choice. They had to adapt or they'd lose out on a huge revenue stream. By the time XBox came out, the developers had already released major titles on PS2 and created game engines for it.

Its very different this time. MS made an excellent development platform and they're coming out first. The only disadvantage Microsoft has this time is fighting against the PlayStation brand.

Also, the main thing is that by the time the xbox came out, the installed base of PS2 was large and exploding. There were no such guarantees on the xbox, regardless how successful its launch was. The choice on what to develop on was much more clear cut with PS2: Sony had been around, had a console that was steamrolling, and the alternatives were either unproven or less-conventional.

 

[avaya]

It's an interesting interview and lends a lot of credence to those who still believe in Sony's Spring '06 launch and a price of 300-400. I find it interesting, especially given Merril Lynch's report that says Sony won't sell PS3 at a loss based on the CEO's financial guidance, and yet we have here the CEO saying "We'll subsidize the thing."

.Sis

The ML report is very vague about the no subsidy policy.

We know that more than 75% of Sony's revenues come from the CE division, and next year Sony Pictures should be receiving a windfall from the Da Vinci Code.

There's a strong possibility that if the CE division is able to turn itself around marginally and Sony Pictures generates some decent profits based on some of the titles lined up for it (Memoirs of a Geisha-DVD, Pink Panther) then a subsidised PS3 might not necessarily mean Sony will post a loss for FY2006.

 

[Edge]

Ah but it had an 8 million unit head start. Dont casually leave that out!

Sony had a 5 million head start in North America, and now MS is at 11 million, and Sony almost at 40 million in North America. Sony has lapped MS like four times, and month to month continue to outsell them 3:1. Sony's early lead was only 5 million, now they are 29 million ahead.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Sony had a 5 million head start in North America, and now MS is at 11 million, and Sony almost at 40 million in North America. Sony has lapped MS like four times, and month to month continue to outsell them 3:1. Sony's early lead was only 5 million, now they are 29 million ahead.

People always talk about the boxes sold, imo its more about the software than the hardware. How many titles did ps2 have when xbox released?

 

[dantruon]

Also, the main thing is that by the time the xbox came out, the installed base of PS2 was large and exploding. There were no such guarantees on the xbox, regardless how successful its launch was. The choice on what to develop on was much more clear cut with PS2: Sony had been around, had a console that was steamrolling, and the alternatives were either unproven or less-conventional.

wait a second, how about Dreamcast that was out before the ps2 ?

 

[randycat99]

Very true...people here seem to only cherry-pick examples that support the point-of-the-day. The reality is that no one can pinpoint ultimate success by simply correlating one similarity from the past (things are far more multi-faceted, complex, and to some degree, just plain random). If it were that easy, there would never be a "challenger" console brand because it would already be obvious which one will be the "dominator". Everybody would simply drop support for everything else and support the dominator.

 

[Powderkeg]

Picking a "winner" in the console wars is not difficult. The system with the most games sells the best. It's just that simple, and has been true since the Atari 2600.

Launch window, system power, extra features, none of that makes a difference. It's all about the games.

 

[Hardknock]

Yeah, but the PS2 headstart meant developers had no choice. They had to adapt or they'd lose out on a huge revenue stream. By the time XBox came out, the developers had already released major titles on PS2 and created game engines for it.

Its very different this time. MS made an excellent development platform and they're coming out first. The only disadvantage Microsoft has this time is fighting against the PlayStation brand.

QFT.

People that write off MS are in for a rude awakening.

 

[Sis]

wait a second, how about Dreamcast that was out before the ps2 ?

Considering that the Dreamcast was canceled a scant handful of months after the PS2 launched in NA, I'm going to say it's completely irrelevant how many units they sold.

.Sis

 

[Gholbine]

Yeah, but the PS2 headstart meant developers had no choice. They had to adapt or they'd lose out on a huge revenue stream. By the time XBox came out, the developers had already released major titles on PS2 and created game engines for it.

Its very different this time. MS made an excellent development platform and they're coming out first. The only disadvantage Microsoft has this time is fighting against the PlayStation brand.

I'd say that most developers have the foresight to see that the PS3 will eventually out-sell the Xbox 360, so making games for the PS3 will eventually garner more profit than developing for the Xbox 360. You also have to remember that many Xbox 360 developers were rushed to get their games out on the system for launch, and many developers will appreciate the extra development time that the PS3 affords them before launch.

I'd also say that many developers still have big-budget projects riding on the PS2 and Xbox, and won't even bother trying to switch their operations to a next generation console until well into next year, when the PS3 may very well have been released.

It's all about the sales figures of the system when the developer actually wants to release their game. If the big developers (Rockstar, Konami, Squaresoft, Namco, Capcom) have projects due for completion at the end of next year or later, they will most certainly not be hurt by the later release of the PS3, since sales will most liekly have caught up by then.

I don't think the early release of the Xbox 360 will help it much at all. Most of the launch titles are either A) 1st party or B) PC ports. Many big 3rd party developers simply haven't had enough time to develope software on the system yet, and many of them won't be releasing their software until the PS3 has released. This means that most developers have the option of waiting for the PS3, and many of them will, especially when you consider that the PS2 is still an abundantly sufficient source of income.

 

[mckmas8808]

QFT.

People that write off MS are in for a rude awakening.

Show me one person that has written off MS. One freaking person. You people take what someone may say about MS and escalate it by 10 times. A person like me whats to see anybody other than Sony sell 70 million consoles thats all. I want to see someone get relatively close to Sony in consoles and console software sold thats all.

I want them to prove themselves before I give them the crown.

 

[seismologist]

I believe they run the risk of alienating their core audience by promising something they knew they could not deliver.

Thoughts?

Wait. I'm their core audience. How am I being alienated? Most people aren't ready for PS3 so soon. There's still plenty of life left in the PS2.

 

[mckmas8808]

I don't think the early release of the Xbox 360 will help it much at all. Most of the launch titles are either A) 1st party or B) PC ports. Many big 3rd party developers simply haven't had enough time to develope software on the system yet, and many of them won't be releasing their software until the PS3 has released. This means that most developers have the option of waiting for the PS3, and many of them will, especially when you consider that the PS2 is still an abundantly sufficient source of income.

Add to the fact Gholbine that the PS2 has plenty of HUGE franchise games coming out next year I'd say the developers will be happy with what the PS2 can put in their pockets too. I think some people need to worry what games Sony will reveal when they show their hand.

 

[Hardknock]

Show me one person that has written off MS. One freaking person. You people take what someone may say about MS and escalate it by 10 times. A person like me whats to see anybody other than Sony sell 70 million consoles thats all. I want to see someone get relatively close to Sony in consoles and console software sold thats all.

I want them to prove themselves before I give them the crown.

What the hell are you talking about?

I don't have to show you shit, take a look around. People automatically assume PS3 is going to be substantially more powerful without seeing actual gameplay footage, they think Developers are going to flock to PS3 and leave 360 with mediocre ports, they automatically think gamers will flock to PS3 just because it's a "playstation" regardless of the games and they automatically assume once PS3 is released it will immediately outsell Xbox 360(Japan maybe, everywhere else certainly not.)

Like I said, don't write MS off. I didn't name any names, but it's quite telling that you were the first one to respond

 

[mckmas8808]

What the hell are you talking about?

I don't have to show you shit, take a look around. People automatically assume PS3 is going to be substantially more powerful without seeing actual gameplay footage, they think Developers are going to flock to PS3 and leave 360 with mediocre ports, they automatically think gamers will flock to PS3 just because it's a "playstation" regardless of the games and they automatically assume once PS3 is released it will immediately outsell Xbox 360(Japan maybe, everywhere else certainly not.)

Like I said, don't write MS off. I didn't name any names, but it's quite telling that you were the first one to respond

Calm down playa. Whats up with you right now? I knew what kind of people you were talking about. People like me, xbd, Randy, l-b, etc. I have never written off MS. Do I think they will sell more than Sony next-gen? No, but I still don't think it's already over. Sony will have to work their asses off to do a three peat.

It will be even tuffer next time around because MS will probably have a price advantage and will have a time advantage. And Nintendo is coming out with this Revolution that may even compete with the X360. Again I think you are making up these people that have wrote off MS.

 

[Gholbine]

What the hell are you talking about?

I don't have to show you shit, take a look around. People automatically assume PS3 is going to be substantially more powerful without seeing actual gameplay footage, they think Developers are going to flock to PS3 and leave 360 with mediocre ports, they automatically think gamers will flock to PS3 just because it's a "playstation" regardless of the games and they automatically assume once PS3 is released it will immediately outsell Xbox 360(Japan maybe, everywhere else certainly not.)

Like I said, don't write MS off. I didn't name any names, but it's quite telling that you were the first one to respond

I think even you can concede that the PS3 will be more powerful in some fashion, whether that be "substantially" or just slightly (I don't remember anybody saying it would be substantially more powerful). I also don't remember anybody saying that the Xbox 360 would be left with ports of PS3 games, whether they be "mediocre" or nay (I don't remember anybody saying the 360 would get ports, let alone mediocre ones). Colourful use of language there. ;-)

It's also pretty reasonable to assume that the PS3 will outsell the Xbox 360 in all territories again, considering the Xbox was still outsold 2-1 in its strongest territory. It would be more unreasonable to assume that the Xbox would somehow overcome a 2-1 deficit in any territory to snatch the crown from Sony (let alone a 20-1 deficit in Japan and a 9-1 deficit in Europe), especially considering the next-gen cards that both companies have played.

I don't think anybody around here is making any unreasonable assumptions about the next generation. I think the problem here is you don't particularly like these assumptions as they go against your own desires.

 

[randycat99]

Excellent points!

In summary, I think we can conclude that we have exposed a rather epic strawman argument from HK.

 

[dantruon]

dude, i totally agreed with you on this one.

 

[Hardknock]

I don't think anybody around here is making any unreasonable assumptions about the next generation. I think the problem here is you don't particularly like these assumptions as they go against your own desires.

Well if you look at my posts you'll see that my point has always been everybody starts at zero each new generation and I stand by that. I don't make any assumptions of who is going to outsell who, because in the end I really don't care. I go where the games I want to play are. Nobody thought PS1 would outsell N64 and Saturn. Nobody thought Genesis would outsell SNES in the States. Nobody thought Xbox would outsell Gamecube this gen.

Assuming that PS3 is going to sell so well and be market leader just because of PS2 is being very niave if you ask me. There are too many unknown factors and I'll just leave it at that.

 

[Sis]

I knew what kind of people you were talking about. People like me, xbd, Randy, l-b, etc.

I agree with your outrage, mckmas, and let me be the first to set the record straight! I don't believe for a second that xb, Randy, and l-b have written off the Xbox 360.

.Sis