PS3, Holiday 2006

scooby_dooby said:
This is a discussion about graphial superiority, not whether these games are AAA or not. I've seen in game clips from GOW, Mass Effect and Too Human, they are all easily as impressive as MGS4.

And the point stands regardless of whether GOW comes out in MArch, as long as it's before the PS3 hits the US, it will server to raise the bar and increase people's expectations.

In other words, by the time gamers actually see MGS4 on store shelves, there will be quite a few games already out that look better or at least equal, so I fail to see how MGS4 is going to establish PS3's "graphical superiority" in the minds of casual gamers.



You are not been fair here,GOW also started as a demo and we all know how good it has come from that point on,what make you think MGS4 will stand still and never had the same level of progression GOW had,after all that demo was make in a short time,with a kit which is not even final.


Come on you had to be fair and give MGS4 a chance to prove if it can improve past what it show,which was already impressive and better looking than GOW.


Only time will tell if the real game will be equal or better.
 
Jov said:
Disagree! A lot of consumers don't just look at prices, but things like feature sets, quality and style. For those that can afford some form of entertainment, the majority will unlikely have such mindset.

So according to your theory, LCD/TFT monitors will also fail to take off until they are the same price and resolution of traditional CRT monitors.

Disagree all you want, but look up the facts.

Most televisions sold are under $300. That's not a theory, and that hasn't changed in decades. TV size has gradually increased over the years but the price people are willing to pay has remained relatively stable.

So you're saying old movies drives the DVD sales? I am not a movie collector, but if there are new features of a classic movie in HD, I might consider getting it, but according to your assumptions there should be no new format to improve on the existing movies as most people already got what they want.


Well, let me put it this way...

The industry is facing several uncomfortable longer-term trends. First, there are worries that DVD retail sales - compared to DVD rentals - may be peaking, said Forrester's Bernoff.

Many people who want to buy DVDs may have largely built up their primary collection of classics and personal favorites, he said. Those movie buffs are more likely then to rent films that they know they'll only watch once or twice.

From the article Slowdown in DVD sales causing more headaches for Hollywood

http://www.azcentral.com/ent/movies/articles/0714dvdslowdown0714.html

I can show you several others including comments from studio execs that say the same thing. Current DVD sales are slowing down, and a large part of the reason is people have built up their collection and now only buy a couple of movies a year instead of dozens. same thing works for HD Video.

If you want to push the format quickly you have to convince people to convert their collection to the new format. Otherwise you are only going to sell a couple of movies a year to owners of players and that isn't nearly enough sales to generate widespread support or single-format adoption within a couple of years.

One of the two formats will have to show it can compete with DVD before a single standard will be accepted, and a single standard will have to be accepted before it can go mainstream. Most people will wait until that happens before buying into either format heavily. Noone wants to be the proud owner of the next Betamax.
 
Jov said:
Disagree! A lot of consumers don't just look at prices, but things like feature sets, quality and style. For those that can afford some form of entertainment, the majority will unlikely have such mindset.

So according to your theory, LCD/TFT monitors will also fail to take off until they are the same price and resolution of traditional CRT monitors.



So you're saying old movies drives the DVD sales? I am not a movie collector, but if there are new features of a classic movie in HD, I might consider getting it, but according to your assumptions there should be no new format to improve on the existing movies as most people already got what they want.

I agree. I have a small collection of VHS which I should prob discard, but I also have a collection of laserdiscs and a hugh collection of dvds. There are some movies that I have gradually replaced over time onto dvd, but I don't see myself replacing others such as the Lethal Weapon and Back to the Future series which I have on laserdisc. However, when I buy new movies (whether it be new releases or an old favorite), if there is an HD version available, I do not see myself choosing the lower quality version .. esp if I have a PS3 that can play the HD content. I would go so far as to say that I would choose the HD version even if I do not have an HDTV yet on the assumption that its where the television technology is headed because CRTs are basically relegated to the dark corners of the electronics stores today. Its like choosing to buy VHS tapes back in the days simply because I have a VCR attached to all of my televisions and only one PS2 to playback dvds.
 
The movie industry believed that the dawn of VCRs was the deathknell for their industry because people will no longer have to go to movie theaters to watch movies and they could not market their movies on networks the same way anymore. But the opposite occurred .. they opened up a whole new revenue source, and people became more interested in movies than ever before. I walk into places like Best Buys, and Frys, or even Costco, and all you see are the flatscreen plasma/lcd televisions prominently displayed. It doesn't seem that long ago that flatscreen plasma televisions were selling for 10,000.00 - 20,000.00 dollars. Today, we see prices dropping into the low thousands. CRTs are relegated to the forgotten back corners and people just walk right past them. In addition, HD content is such a dramatic difference from the current standards that people cannot help but stop and take notice. If dvds are indeed reaching some kind of "saturation" point, then what better ways for movie studios to reinvigorate sales than to re-offer their library in HD format?
 
eDoshin said:
I agree. I have a small collection of VHS which I should prob discard, but I also have a collection of laserdiscs and a hugh collection of dvds. There are some movies that I have gradually replaced over time onto dvd, but I don't see myself replacing others such as the Lethal Weapon and Back to the Future series which I have on laserdisc.

2 questions in regards to your "large" DVD collection:

Was every single DVD movie in your collection released after you bought a DVD player?

Or were many of them "old" movies, released before you owned a DVD player?


I'm just wondering if your DVD collection agrees as well.
 
Well i think software and hardware should drive each other's sales.

It doesn't really matter if he had DVDs before he bought a DVD player (i did). In the end, he bought DVD and he bought the DVD player, like he will buy Bluray movies and PS3.

Obviously the more software there is, the more people will want to buy the hardware to watch that content, so the two will push each other's sales, much like everything else before.
 
london-boy said:
Well i think software and hardware should drive each other's sales.

It doesn't really matter if he had DVDs before he bought a DVD player (i did). In the end, he bought DVD and he bought the DVD player, like he will buy Bluray movies and PS3.

Obviously the more software there is, the more people will want to buy the hardware to watch that content, so the two will push each other's sales, much like everything else before.

Yes logical posting is back!!:smile: You're right they both will supplement each other. That's exactly why those movie companies talk about the PS3 alot. I remember people here were actually debating that the PS3 wouldn't change the adoption rate of Blu-ray movies.:LOL:

And with companies like Sony, Toshiba, etc phasing out SDTVs and replacing them with HDTVs how can anybody actually argue that one of the formats will not catch on?
 
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mckmas8808 said:
Yes logical posting is back!!:smile: You're right they both will supplement each other. That's exactly why those movie companies talk about the PS3 alot. I remember people here were actually debating that the PS3 wouldn't change the adoption rate of Blu-ray movies.:LOL:

And with companies like Sony, Toshiba, etc fasing out SDTVs and replacing them with HDTVs how can anybody actually argue that one of the formats will not catch on?


I think many people are just afraid of change. They just can't let go of some things for some reason.

Just today there was a huge first-page article on the Metro about how Ofcom have complained to MP's because "the switch to digital will be prohibitely expensive for many families in the UK". Then the go on about how it will cost them some £200 between here and 2012 for the "full switch".
Now that's just complaining for the sake of complaining. 200 quid in 7 years is £28.57 a year. If a family can't afford that, then they should have a bloody TV cause they don't even have money for food or to pay for the electricity!!

It's obvious SDTV will be phased out and HDTV will just take over. It's all to be seen how long the old traditionalists want to drag the switch for.
 
I think one point i havent read yet is that just becuase consumer has 1. HDTV, 2. PS3 or HD-DVD 360, that they care to buy BR or HD-DVD movies.

Early on, when there isnt the rental or movie selection of HD optical movies, are consumers going to go out of their way to buy a HD-DVD or BR disc?

There are lots of products that consumers have the means to buy utilize use to their fullest extent, yet dont because they dont find them enough of an upgrade or useful enough to buy.

I have a shower, i wash daily, yet i dont have a powered shower nozzle with all the different settings and massages, etc. What ive got is good enough and im not inclined to go out of my way to get something different. Maybe not the perfect example but hopefully it clarified my point somewhat.

As has been argued before, i think digital distribution emergence is just as likely an outcome as either of these HD disc formats taking off but we'll have to wait and see.
 
I can't honestly believe someone with HDTV and HD player won't go buy HD movies, unless that person doesn't buy movies anyway. I rarely buy movies. Very rarely. So if I had HDTV and PS3 I likely wouldn't be filling up my collection (though admittedly I've been waiting for a better quality format. Knowing HD would arrive sooner or later I think it better to wait a few years 'til it's out then buy DVDs now only to replace them in a few years and have ditching them). But most people buy movies and if they've got the resources to play HD movies, they'll surely buy the HD versions, just to see their kit in action. Like people buying UMDs. There's quite a few. Is this sustainable or will interest drop? The fact that such a question exists shows we accept given a new toy to play with people will buy content to try it out.
 
Shifty Geezer said:
I can't honestly believe someone with HDTV and HD player won't go buy HD movies, unless that person doesn't buy movies anyway. I rarely buy movies. Very rarely. So if I had HDTV and PS3 I likely wouldn't be filling up my collection (though admittedly I've been waiting for a better quality format. Knowing HD would arrive sooner or later I think it better to wait a few years 'til it's out then buy DVDs now only to replace them in a few years and have ditching them). But most people buy movies and if they've got the resources to play HD movies, they'll surely buy the HD versions, just to see their kit in action. Like people buying UMDs. There's quite a few. Is this sustainable or will interest drop? The fact that such a question exists shows we accept given a new toy to play with people will buy content to try it out.

Agreed, thats my point. Just becuase someone has a PS3 and an HDTV doesnt automatically make them a consumer of HD optical movies. So if 3 million PS3s get sold and those 3 million people all have HDTVs, doesnt mean you now have 3 million blu-ray customers. You definitely have a % of those people (based on your kit in action comment), but its not a straight up userbase the same way it would be if those people went out and bought stand alone BR players. There is a difference between the console owner and the stand alone box between those 2 people.

In terms of 'attach rate' i wonder what the estimate would be relative to console owner vs the stand alone player? Does the stand alone player owner buy 2x the amount of the multipurpose device? 4x?
 
Keep on topic or start a new thread [/broken record]

Topic: PS3, Holiday 2006.

Actual Discussion: Something about Someone's dad being stronger than some other kid's dad.
HDTVs market. VCR and DVDs. Etc...

The thread either goes back to the original topic, or else, it get a one way ticket to locked-ville.

BTW, enough with the off-topic pissing contest, X360 VS PS3, occuring in way too many threads. We got the idea by now, let's pass to something else, like relevant technical discussions, for instance. ;)
 
"Computers are useless. They can only give you answers.
Pablo Picasso (1881-1973) "

So true...to everything including this quote.
 
...actually debating that the PS3 wouldn't change the adoption rate of Blu-ray movies

It won't, HDTV's will force that effect.

Anyway, I really find it odd that so many people are now fine with a fall 2006 launch in NA. I've been saying they won't achieve a worl wide launch at teh same time due to not having enough software ready for each region. Fall 2006 is the only date that makes sense IMO. I wouldn't be suprised to see PS3 launch later than expected in Japan as well.
 
Qroach said:
Anyway, I really find it odd that so many people are now fine with a fall 2006 launch in NA.

I'm surprised it wasn't expected all along. I've been saying it would be a fall 06 launch for over a year now.
 
Gholbine said:
The developers and their games have already spoken on this issue: it's a problem, and the generation has yet to begin. Nothing more need be said about it. Take up your arguments with the developers, not me.
OK, fine. You win. This problem is just as bad as N64 vs. PS1 :rolleyes:

You have a real problem with understanding the context of my messages. There is no definative line between "can" and "need". It's all a grey area. My point is that this is much more grey than N64 vs. PS1. The two scenarios aren't even comparable. You will be very hard pressed to actually see the difference like you could with N64. It's a matter of how many frills the developer wants to and can economically afford to put in, and how much time they want to spend on compacting everything. If you've ever seen the 64KB demos, you'll know there's a plethora of methods for shrinking stuff down.

As for your GPU comments: I stick by what I said. The CPU is not so separated from the graphics as you say. It certainly wasn't in the PS2, and logic dictates that it won't in the PS3 either, and using fabricated knowledge of the RSX to back up your point doesn't exactly work either. Will it help with actual vertex or pixel shading? I doubt it, I never claimed anything like that. You did mention animation, however, which is a massive factor in graphics, and the Cell will certainly help in that department.
Like I said, physics. Animation itself does not need much CPU power at all. It's figuring out what to animate, i.e. physics. And again, the CPU load from physics can be toned down by changing convergence and iteration parameters. I have programmed a physics engine in a 3D game engine, so I have full knowledge in this matter. Even a factor of two CPU power doesn't buy you much, and I doubt that general physics will be nearly that much faster on Cell. From your silence I assume you have zero game programming experience, so your meaningless anecdotes are worthless.

Also, have you seen this demo:

http://www.ps3updates.com/the_2Dgetaway_2D3_2D20050516072440159.jpg

"rendered entirely with Cell", according to Phil Harrison. Now that doesn't look like something a graphically useless CPU could produce, do you agree?
I need a quote to believe that. In every interview I've seen, like http://www.eurogamer.net/article.php?article_id=59243, he says nothing of the sort, but I can see how people could be mislead into thinking that. He specifically mentioned how a STI terrain demo was done entirely on Cell, but that's it. Even the PR talk about skin shading is pointless, because in 2002 it was found you could precompute a lot of this using the PRT work from P.P. Sloan et al.

Most of your CPU and GPU philosophies seem to be stuck on current PC ideas. Consoles are certainly not PCs, especially the Playstation consoles. The CPU was the main driving force behind the graphics in the PS2, and it worked out well for them. Why not the PS3? They're certainly touting the Cell as a very graphically capable CPU, afterall, wasn't one of their original ideas to use a Cell as a GPU?
Yes, it was one of their ideas. Guess what? PS3 HAS A NVIDIA GPU IN IT. Why? Cell will never be in the same league as RSX for rendering. Things change, especially in this industry. If you go back to the mid nineties, graphics accelerators were often slower than CPU rendering. Now they're orders of magnitude slower. When Cell was started, NV20 wasn't even released, let alone the revolutionary FP pixel processing of R300. From R300 to G70, rendering speeds have increased 5-fold, but CPU speeds went up by less than 2 times.

You know what? It's worthless to keep arguing with you. Obviously your tangible knowledge of digital hardware and their architecture, the 3D graphics pipeline, and 3D software along with its math is next to zero.
 
mckmas8808 said:
I always thought people saw AAA as extremely high quality[/IMG]
i think it's subjective although first-party franchises are typically regarded as AAA (i.e., Gran Turismo, Mario and Halo).
 
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