PS3, Holiday 2006

Scooby re-read my post, where did I say Sakaguchi is talentless? I'm saying you place too much importance on him!! The TEAM is what matters!! And I get pissed when people don't recognize this fact!!! He's not the only creative talent involved in a game and you disrespect people and his teams by saying so! NEXT TIME READ WHAT I WRITE!
 
Laa-Yosh said:
To everyone arguing about the DVD vs. Blueray thing - seriously, what other options would there be for MS? HD-DVD? It's not done yet. Blueray? They won't license it from Sony for sure. What else is there? 10GB flash memory sticks? 1.44 FDD? I don't really see any alternative for the Xbox360...

Thats one point..another is how much leverage would either HD-DVD or Blu-ray give the respective console?

If one format takes off it could possiblely make an impact. Then the decision not adding one is seen as a missed opportunity.
 
Mythos said:
Thats one point..another is how much leverage would either HD-DVD or Blu-ray give the respective console?

If one format takes off it could possiblely make an impact. Then the decision not adding one is seen as a missed opportunity.

The odds of one taking off in the next generation of consoles is remote at best. The demand just isn't there. The only people who care are HDTV owners who don't think their current DVD's look good enough, and that group is tiny indeed.

Before either format can take off you'll have to get over 50% of the population switched to HDTV, and then convince them that their current DVD movies don't look good enough. Then you need to convince them to switch all of their current movies over to whatever format takes off.

I just can't see that happening in less than 6 years. It took DVD that long to replace VHS and the differences in those media was huge compared to the relatively minor resolution change that HD video will offer over current DVDs.
 
Powderkeg said:
The odds of one taking off in the next generation of consoles is remote at best. The demand just isn't there. The only people who care are HDTV owners who don't think their current DVD's look good enough, and that group is tiny indeed.

Before either format can take off you'll have to get over 50% of the population switched to HDTV, and then convince them that their current DVD movies don't look good enough. Then you need to convince them to switch all of their current movies over to whatever format takes off.

I just can't see that happening in less than 6 years. It took DVD that long to replace VHS and the differences in those media was huge compared to the relatively minor resolution change that HD video will offer over current DVDs.

HDTVs like Plasmas and LCDs are dropping in price. I know a number of ppl willing to invest in one for their features and size.

Also if for example the PS3 plays DVD and BR, then there is no reason to replace existing DVD collection. Just build one's collection with HD/BR versions.

I know I initially purchased my PS2 for DVD given I didn't have a player at the time and most likely do the same for the PS3 if the movies on BR impress me.
 
Jov said:
HDTVs like Plasmas and LCDs are dropping in price. I know a number of ppl willing to invest in one for their features and size.

Most new televisions sold are under $300 in price and 27" or larger in screensize. HDTV won't take 50% of the market until you can get an HDTV the same size for the same price.

Also if for example the PS3 plays DVD and BR, then there is no reason to replace existing DVD collection. Just build one's collection with HD/BR versions.

But that's won't make a format take off. That's not nearly enough sales.

The reason DVD took off like it did was because everyone wanted to replace their entire VHS collection with DVD movies instead. The picture quality was far far better, it worked on every TV set, and the movies never wear out. There was a large demand for the older movies as well as new ones, and that's what pushed the format.

If you rely on current movie sales only for HD movie formats then it's going to take a lot longer because most people tend to only buy a couple of new release DVD movies per year, rather than replace a collection of 20+ movies in a year or two. Now split those sales between 2 formats and it will take even longer.

Especially considering most people won't invest in one until one format becomes a clear leader in the stores.
 
randycat99 said:
1080p vs. 480p is a "minor" change in resolution? :oops:

Do you know how low the odds are that HD movies will be in 1080p native format?

I expect 720p, but no higher. Too many time and cost issues to justify 1080p when less than 1% of the market has a set that can display that.
 
Powderkeg said:
The odds of one taking off in the next generation of consoles is remote at best. The demand just isn't there. The only people who care are HDTV owners who don't think their current DVD's look good enough, and that group is tiny indeed.

Before either format can take off you'll have to get over 50% of the population switched to HDTV, and then convince them that their current DVD movies don't look good enough. Then you need to convince them to switch all of their current movies over to whatever format takes off.

I just can't see that happening in less than 6 years. It took DVD that long to replace VHS and the differences in those media was huge compared to the relatively minor resolution change that HD video will offer over current DVDs.

Again look at the realities of the market...

CEA has television unit sales projections as follows: Analog 13.5 millon and 11.9 for digital sets. This is for 2006 and for 2007 digital sets most likely take hold on the market and besides its in the CE manufactors to sell digital sets to you.

Then again like JOV stated consumer can buy both if they like. Eventually they'll be eased into a format by the CE market that funnels people in that direction. [First the hardcore will buy into it and then everyone else follows. And what HDTV owner does'nt want a device that will display a movie of their likeing in HD?]

[The question of traction still remains]

But if it takes off the spoils goes to the victor!
 
Laa-Yosh said:
To everyone arguing about the DVD vs. Blueray thing - seriously, what other options would there be for MS? HD-DVD? It's not done yet. Blueray? They won't license it from Sony for sure. What else is there? 10GB flash memory sticks? 1.44 FDD? I don't really see any alternative for the Xbox360...

Of course they didn't have a choice. But it was them whom wanted to release a console in 2005.
 
Powderkeg said:
Do you know how low the odds are that HD movies will be in 1080p native format?

Do you? I know you have a guess, but do you really "know"?

I expect 720p, but no higher. Too many time and cost issues to justify 1080p when less than 1% of the market has a set that can display that.

So a future format is going to target the state of existing tech? 1% market? Is the install base going to freeze in its tracks today? A 1080p format will ensure optimal quality for all lower hd standards. This is getting ridiculous.
 
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Gholbine, I'm going to assume that you have no coding experience and little real understanding of how the 3D pipeline works, because a lot of your statements made no sense.
Gholbine said:
Cell absolutely will help on the graphics front, just as the Emotion Engine did in the PS2. The system is built that way, with heavy CPU<=>GPU communication in mind. It was the entire philosophy behind the PS2, and it remains so with the PS3.
RSX is based heavily on the G70, and hence PS3 will follow the PC paradigm of 3D rendering much more closely. The main use of the CPU-GPU communication will be for fast texture loading and vertex transfer (as with AGP and PCIe on PC's), nothing more. There will be little point in doing any full-fledged vertex transformation on the CPU, because the VS on GPU's are very finely tuned to have fast, latency free vertex processing with quick rejection for backfacing and clipped triangles as soon as position data is complete.

Like I said, physics and maybe animation are the only places that Cell will indirectly impact graphics. Even then, Cell will be used to figure out bone transformations and transformation matrices, not move each vertex. As for actual rendering, general purpose CPU's, even Cell, are one or more orders of magnitude slower than graphics hardware. Furthermore, current graphics processors can do pretty much anything you'd want due to their programmability via shaders.

Even in current PCs, where CPU and GPU communication is nowhere near as important, the CPU can still help with detailed graphics. Take Doom 3 for example, the shadowing was done entirely within the CPU. The Cell could handle shadows, among other things, leaving cycles on the GPU for other activities.
Detailed graphics? Do you have any idea what the CPU did in Doom 3, and why ID did it that way?

The actual shadows, are all calculated and rendered entirely on the GPU.

The CPU is used to find silhouette edges on objects, and insert geometry there. This can only be done after transformation, though, so Carmack had to do all vertex transformation, including skinning, on the CPU because there's no way for the GPU to make its vertices accessible to the CPU after going through the vertex shader. This isn't a problem on these consoles. The other reason Carmack did it this way is that older hardware would need to multipass the lighting shader he uses, and the Z-only pass also needs to be done on all hardware. Using the CPU to transform everything only once meant no redundant work had to be done. Again, this is a non-issue for consoles.

Even so, you can do this all on the GPU if your vertex shaders are fast enough, and this is exactly what 3DMark2003 did. This is actually a better method, because GPUs always scale faster than CPUs. I'm sure that today, Doom3 would run faster if Carmack did everything via the GPU.

I think it's rather naive to say "Cell has nothing to do with graphics", because that's incorrect, plain and simple.
No it isn't, plain and simple. If you haven't done significant graphics coding for games, you really shouldn't be arguing this with me, because you don't have a clue what you're talking about.



Your lacking knowledge in graphics shows again when you talk about disk space. Resolution has very little to do with how much space you need. The only correlation is that with a higher resolution screen, you might want higher resolution textures. But even that is a very tenous relationship. For the past several years (I'd say starting with the GeForce2), many PC gamers have been playing at 1600x1200, which has twice the pixel count of 720p.

It has mostly been graphics memory that's been the cap on texture resolution, and the PS3 only has 256MB (using system memory would be a bad idea). It has framebuffer bandwidth comparable to 3 year old graphics cards (i.e. the 9700Pro), so I don't see it having the capacity for the huge texture detail jump you're implying.

Its very doubtful that XB360 (or PS3 for that matter) won't be able to handle compressed data like a PC does. The PS2 was probably asking for as much help as it could get because this game had demanding data requirements for a tiny amount of video ram.

Audio will never take up that much room, especially with the great compressors we have nowadays. 7.1 sound is put to use by the spacial location of sound sources in a game. Not every single sound sample will have 8 channels. The vast majority will have 1 or 2, and they'll come out of the correct speakers. Even 600MB will give you 20 hrs of unique sound, and games re-use sound a lot. Speech engines will get better and drastically reduce storage requirements.

Regarding my statement of impressive realtime video, you're taking it out of context. How much HD FMV will you be able to put on a BR disc, maybe 2-3 hours? If you have 20 hours of realtime FMV that would be much more impressive in my opinion, because it gives so much more variety, and enhances the replay factor of a game. I don't see load time being an issue because you'll probably use the same textures and model for cutscenes as the game itself.

Comparing to N64 is nonsense. First of all, it was a 20-1 ratio for a long time (32MB cartridges). Secondly, there are diminishing returns to more capacity. There was a drastic difference in texture detail between PS1 and N64. You'll never see anything near that in PS3 vs. XB360, unless someone does a really lazy port. The lack of urgency for disk space is readily apparent in the PC space, where DVD adoption for game distribution has been very slow despite the ubiquity of DVD drives.

Anyway, I don't think I'll ever convince you that this is a minor problem. PS3 developers that fill up Blu-Ray discs will do so because they can, not because they need to or because it'll make a much better game. They just won't worry about packing stuff together, and MS will probably provide lots of tools to make it easier anyway.
 
Mintmaster said:
Anyway, I don't think I'll ever convince you that this is a minor problem. PS3 developers that fill up Blu-Ray discs will do so because they can, not because they need to or because it'll make a much better game. They just won't worry about packing stuff together, and MS will probably provide lots of tools to make it easier anyway.

This is an interesting point that i dont think has been brought up before. We assume that last gen used X amount of space because they needed it, rather than becuase they HAD it. If last gen were constrained by media and were forced to not waste space on the disc, i wonder how much less would have been used and how much less we would be using as the amount for comparison to this gen...

All told, If i am MS, I'd still be more comfortable if that 15G FVD becomes a reality...
 
Mefisutoferesu said:
NEXT TIME READ WHAT I WRITE!
> "where did I say Sakaguchi is talentless?"

> " Just because Toriyama and Sakaguchi are working together doesn't mean squat!"

:???:

You say it's the team that matters, and when I point out that 1/3 of his actual coders at FeelPlus are ex-Square employees you compeltely underplay that fact. Well which is it?

> " it's good to know that as long as a team adds a few EX-Square employees they automatically win"

Do you really think this is a fair represention? A "few" ex square employees? Come on now...it's more like 30-40 Square employees as well as Sakaguchi, they're rollin on MS's bankroll.

With a producer like him and a TEAM like FeelPlus why would anyone be so pessimisstic?
 
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scooby_dooby said:
> "where did I say Sakaguchi is talentless?"

> " Just because Toriyama and Sakaguchi are working together doesn't mean squat!"

:???:
"It doesn't mean squat" was aimed at the fact that you said the same guys who made Chrono Trigger are making Blue Dragon as if that's justification for saying Blue Dragon will be great, especially when you've only got TWO people on the same team.
Be excited, wonderful, but NOT because Blue Dragon == Chrono Trigger, that's insulting!
I even said so in my original post!

I was angry that you weren't giving any credit to the HUGE team that made Chrono Trigger what it was, you on the other hand IMAGINED I was knocking Blue Dragon. Just because it isn't Square-Enix doesn't mean it can't be a good RPG, but NOOO the fans build it up in their heads that ONLY Square employee's know how to make good RPGs, and that TWO guys on the Chrono Trigger TEAM suddenly equals the same guys who Chrono Trigger. As far as I'm aware it's Sakaguchi and Toriyama, that's it! They were important parts, but they weren't responsible for the battle system, enemy mechanics, field and level design, music, and so many other aspects that are magically attributed to them!
scooby_dooby said:
You say it's the team that matters, and when I point out that 1/3 of his actual coders at FeelPlus are ex-Square employees you compeltely underplay that fact. Well which is it?
And again, so if they're from square they're automatically God's gift to programming? Come on, you act as if everything that comes from Square is golden, even I know that's silly. Just because they were once Square employees doesn't mean they can push the Xbox360 or that they mesh well or compliment the talents of the others in the team. It's not just, "Let's put together the most talented or old Square people and everything will be hunky-dory." A team that works well together and whose knowledge and talent compliment eachother is FAR more valuable than just getting as many people a you can that worked from a big name developer. Forming a strong and talented team takes time.
scooby_dooby said:
> " it's good to know that as long as a team adds a few EX-Square employees they automatically win"

Do you really think this is a fair represention? A "few" ex square employees? Come on now...it's more like 30-40 Square employees as well as Sakaguchi, they're rollin on MS's bankroll.
Not to be too much of a jerk, but where did you hear 30-40 members are ex-square staffers? From the internet rumors I've heard Feel Plus is essentially made up of Scarab (Dinosaur Hunting for Xbox), which really doesn't give me any confidence. Heck, the fact that Artoon is doing Blue Dragon isn't thrilling either. Oh, and guess what, Artoon has EX-Square members, too, yet Blinx is hardly what I'd call brilliant.
scooby_dooby said:
With a producer like him and a TEAM like FeelPlus why would anyone be so pessimisstic?
And who says I'm pessimistic? Cautious? Heck Yeah, definately. We're talking about a completely untested team, what reason do I have to be optimistic let alone pessimistic? All I know is Mistwalker + MS Money bags + 2 seemingly generic development teams + FF clone + DQ clone. That's it, how am I supposed to form an opinion on that? How are you supposed to? What I've been whining about the whole time is your constant "it's the reinvention of Square, even though it's only a handful of people..." thinking. You're acting as if Sakaguchi == Square, which is UTTER BS AND COMPLETELY DIRESPECTFUL TO THE LITERALLY HUNDREDS OF TALENTED EMPLOYEES AT SQUARE!!! That was my point in the first place and the whole reason I was pissed. Granted I've generalized a bit, more like (Sakaguchi + Toriyama) == Chrono Trigger, but the way I did it works across both.
 
I believe

Earliest we see ps3 is summer in japan and holiday (october -nov ) in the states and perhaps a slip to early 2007 in europe .
 
jvd said:
I believe

Earliest we see ps3 is summer in japan and holiday (october -nov ) in the states and perhaps a slip to early 2007 in europe .


Seing how long t took PSP to launch in Europe anything can be expected. On the other hand one could always have a launch with a few thousands consoles just to say that you have a world wide launch...
 
Platon said:
Seing how long t took PSP to launch in Europe anything can be expected. On the other hand one could always have a launch with a few thousands consoles just to say that you have a world wide launch...


I think that would be the best option for them. They need to get the bloody thing out there. So what if people can't actually buy them?!! Details details, what counts is that there are "some" units out there to make people "wait for a PS3".

People will wait for PS3 much more if they actually see it but "can't get their hands on it". If the thing is just not released, it feels it's even further away than it already is.

Having said that, I think a worldwide launch is unlikely. At least in Europe, if only because Bluray will just not be out here for a long time and they'll likely wait for things to get better in the HD front here before releasing it, which is crap if you ask me but it wouldn't surprise me.
 
london-boy said:
Having said that, I think a worldwide launch is unlikely. At least in Europe, if only because Bluray will just not be out here for a long time and they'll likely wait for things to get better in the HD front here before releasing it, which is crap if you ask me but it wouldn't surprise me.

What do you mean that they will wait till the HD front catches up? Here in Europe they have just now started talking about HD tvs and HD ready TVs and what not. From talking to actually selling them in big quantitties it will take a long time. I do hope the PS3 is out before that...
 
Platon said:
What do you mean that they will wait till the HD front catches up? Here in Europe they have just now started talking about HD tvs and HD ready TVs and what not. From talking to actually selling them in big quantitties it will take a long time. I do hope the PS3 is out before that...


Well, the most logical solution is to release the thing, so they both drive each other's sales. HDTVs will sell much more if there is HD material to see on them. And HD material will sell much more if there are lots of HDTVs and decent prices to buy.

But we all know that logic is the last thing to be used in Europe when it comes to electronics.

Just to put things into perspective, the US got HD broadcasts in 1998. We still don't have ANY. 7 years. Well, apart from 2 European satellite channels which no one cares about cause they just show commercials and other very lame things.
SkyHD will launch in 2006 with no more than 6 channels. The box is probably going to cost something in the region for £300-400 (that's UK pounds!), plus the premium monthly charge. And we still don't know what quality the channels will be, what shows will be in HD, we know nothing.

To say things are backwards here is a gross understatement. 8 years and that's what we get.
 
london-boy said:
And we still don't know what quality the channels will be, what shows will be in HD, we know nothing.

Thats true, I know that within a couple of years all the broadcasting will be digital in the nordic countries, but whether it will be HD or not or if any shows will HD or not I have no idea.

On the other hand I can undestand it a bit. For the "common" people we have just now upgraded to a DVD, should we already upgrade to HD TVs, HD player and what not? I might be a pessimist but I really don't see the HD era talking of within the next 5 years. Although the was might be between HDDVD and BR I would say they both fight against the common DVD, which I don't see going anywhere soon. The only thing that gives a glimse of hope is that both next gen consoles will be pushing the HD era, especially PS3 with its BR player...
 
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