Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

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Isnt 8870 roughly on same class as 680, according to rumored specs? Can 28nm process be matured enough for mass production by mid-2013?

8xxx series [most probably 88xx] will be launched in Q2 of 2013. By late q2 or early q3 nextgen consoles will also enter manufacture if they want to be out in late 2013.
 
if microsoft goes for a BIG APU , then will it repeat the heat problems of x360 ?
XB360 and PS3 were bitten by a forced transition to lead-free solder. Those issues should be understood and engineered around now. Any thermal issues would be down to cheap engineering. We may need expensive/loud cooling, but hardware failure shouldn't be the calamity this gen was.
 
if microsoft goes for a BIG APU , then will it repeat the heat problems of x360 ?

Not to the same level of RRoD as that was mostly caused by the industry's switch to lead-free solder. The use of lead-free solder is now a known quantity.
 
how big are 8 jaguar + 8850?
too much area for an interposer that must accommodate it and the memory?
Depending on what it actually is, one could easily fit such an APU in probably < 350mm² (even < 300mm² would be possible, if there are not more than 20 CUs). That shouldn't be a problem for 28nm yields mid/end 2013. If you want to fit some DRAM stacks together with the GPU die on an interposer, that interposer needs to be at least twice as large (probably closer to 3x the area). Last number I've read somewhere, is that an 300mm interposer wafer goes for 500 to 600$ (can be done with old tech), that's roughly an order of magnitude cheaper than a 28nm wafer. That means the interposer costs may be about a third of the APU die. But that is just a very rough guess and the assembly costs come on top of it.
 
Forgive me. I was under the impression the most reliable Durango rumors had, with some consistency, indicated an APU+GPU and EsRAM(?)/ DDRx 8gb. This doesn't seem to mesh with that.
 
What if the consoles are like this?:

PS4:
- APU with 4 core steamroller at 3.2 Ghz and weak GPU
- 8 GB of RAM part (2 of which GDDR5) or 4 GB of GDDR5
- Discrete GPU AMD 8870

Xbox:
- APU with 8 Jaguar cores at 1.6 Ghz and AMD 8850 with eDRAM
- 8 GB of DDR3/4 RAM
 
What if the consoles are like this?:

PS4:
- APU with 4 core steamroller at 3.2 Ghz and weak GPU
- 8 GB of RAM part (2 of which GDDR5) or 4 GB of GDDR5
- Discrete GPU AMD 8870

Xbox:
- APU with 8 Jaguar cores at 1.6 Ghz and AMD 8850 with eDRAM
- 8 GB of DDR3/4 RAM

I think PS4's GPU will be smaller than Durango's, especially if Sony goes with CPU+APU.
 
A passive interposer, which is the sort that most have been speculating about, is composed of a lot of wires at larger geometries than the cutting-edge.

There's no logic in the interposer, so it's significantly simpler. Redundant connections are probably still a good idea, but in general not as much can go wrong with a passive interposer because there isn't as much there to go wrong.

The rest of the 2.5D system is a more likely source of problems. An interposer with logic added to it can bring in more complications, although it would probably still be using a very mature process to do it.
 
This is the most commonly found rumor about 88xx series.
amd-radeon-8000-series-1.jpg

Nobody knows if its true. Still 28nm but much more effective than 7xxx.
Well that looks a bit like wishful thinking to me, +75% in peak FLOPS figure for an increase of 21% in die size?
That is not the place for that, but that sounds a lot to me like AMD fans wishing AMD to do what Nvidia did from Fermi to Kepler whereas AMD ratio ALU/"the rest" was already pretty high.
I would not bet much on that.
 
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I think PS4's GPU will be smaller than Durango's, especially if Sony goes with CPU+APU.

Well, since the first devs info appeared, the rumors have pointed that the PS4 dev kits had a more powerful GPU. MS seems to be putting more money and resources in the GPU design, but this could be because of the eDRAM, which means that if Sony wants to reamin competitive in terms of power, they should have a fast type of RAM too.

I believe the GPUs, with the exception of the eDRAM are going to be almost the same one. But the CPUs seem to be different if MS is using Jaguar cores and Sony aims to Steamroller.

I remember back in June there was a discussion about what option was better, 4 Steamroller at 3.2 Ghz or 8 Jaguar at 1.6 Ghz.
 
Forgive me. I was under the impression the most reliable Durango rumors had, with some consistency, indicated an APU+GPU and EsRAM(?)/ DDRx 8gb. This doesn't seem to mesh with that.
APU+GPU never made sense in my opinion (I always said this) and one can fit 4 or even 8 GByte with some DRAM stacks on an interposer.
4x4GBit per stack for instance, each DRAM die would omit the IO part of DDR3/GDDR5 (or the logic layer of a HMC), the DRAM array of a 32bit GDDR5 device accesses 256 Bit per address anyway (prefetch 8). One just needs to connect everything directly to the DRAM controller on the APU (or some logic on the interposer?). This would make for a 1024bit SDR interface per stack (running at let's say 750MHz, bandwidth would be equivalent to a 128bit GDDR5 6 GT/s interface [96 GB/s] per stack with 2 GB). Two stacks would be 4 GB and 192 GB/s, three stacks 6 GB and 288 GB/s, and 4 stacks would result in 8 GB and 384 GB/s.
I'm not saying this is what we are going to see. It is probably expensive and risky for a 2013 introduction, but in principle doable in my opinion.
 
1.8 TFLOPs vs 1.2 on Durango, or as bg said, almost 2 TF for Orbis and 1+ for Durango.

I'm not sure what your sources are, or where you got your information.

1st PS4 dev kit: ~1.25TFLOPS (6650D = 480gflops, 7670 = 768 gflops)
2nd PS4 dev kit: >1.38TFLOPS (7660D = 614GFLOPS, No mention of discrete GPU, at least 7670 though)

1st Durango dev kit: ~1.4TFLOPS (rumored to be nvidia GTX 570)

That info is only with regards to the rumors of the early dev kits for each system. I think that both will end up around 2.5TFLOPS when they release.
 
So why should anyone be excited over dev kit GPU if retail one is crap and you know it? Seriously, you don't know it and anybody on this board who is speaking of it doesn't either. All we know is what is in year old dev kit, nothing else.
 
Those are figures for final systems, not for dev kits.

You'll be shocked at how powerful dev kits are actually.
Man I hope that's wrong cause that's quite mediocre for a next gen system. Soon mediocre cards will perform 3 TF on average and high end cards will probably end up doing 10 TF in a couple of years. Now I know consoles can't compete with high end pcs but if they want to stay relevant for the next decade, they should squeeze as much as they can.

Microsoft knows when they plan to release DX12 and they're working with AMD for their GPU so if they can make a custom GPU performing 3+ TF and make it compatible with DX12, then we have a strong enough system worthy of being called next gen. If MS releases first, then Sony will have to match it more or less which is a win for us.

In 2014, Maxwell Gpus and I guess Volcanic Islands (HD 9xxx) are supposed to be a big upgrade. It's too bad we can't get something like that in our systems. Sounds perfect for future proofing and great performance.
 
Man I hope that's wrong cause that's quite mediocre for a next gen system. Soon mediocre cards will perform 3 TF on average and high end cards will probably end up doing 10 TF in a couple of years. Now I know consoles can't compete with high end pcs but if they want to stay relevant for the next decade, they should squeeze as much as they can.

Microsoft knows when they plan to release DX12 and they're working with AMD for their GPU so if they can make a custom GPU performing 3+ TF and make it compatible with DX12, then we have a strong enough system worthy of being called next gen. If MS releases first, then Sony will have to match it more or less which is a win for us.

In 2014, Maxwell Gpus and I guess Volcanic Islands (HD 9xxx) are supposed to be a big upgrade. It's too bad we can't get something like that in our systems. Sounds perfect for future proofing and great performance.

I think it is going to be a while until we hear about dx12. Heck, crysis 3 is probably thr first game that really uses dx11 in full scale and its coming out in next year lol.
 
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