Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[Lucid_Dreamer]

I have been following the rumors and it goes like this.... Microsoft from the very beginning has always said 2013, there has never been any other date period. That is solid.

The Sony stuff about launching in 2014 came in because according to all rumors they have been behind Microsoft in moving proper devkits out to developers and that Microsoft has been ahead of them all of this time. In other words they are late and they may have to have a delay, but that they are shooting for the same time as Microsoft, that is their goal. Nobody knows if they will make that goal because they are rushing it.

Microsoft has been planning this for years for 2013 and they hired people from other companies to make sure they make that goal and the technology for Next-Gen in 2013 (probably by November 2013).

I am not in the industry, but even I as a layman can tell this from all of the rumors, it's not really that hard to grasp.

So, according to the rumors, Sony is pulling a MS and MS is pulling a Sony. Next-gen is suppose to be a role reversal? Rushed vs. not rushed. One part extremely engineered (tons of engineers) vs. one part less engineered (far less engineers).

The only three parts of the rumor that seems to be the same as this gen would be the RAM concern, off the shelf GPU, and software getting to devs first.

I wonder how much "mind-share" will play a role with a lot of 3rd party devs. Even if tools are slightly better on Sony's next console, would devs choose Sony as their favorite?

EDIT: Forget the RAM concern. Just before the current gen consoles got started, Epic said they got MS to up the RAM amount. So, that would be a part of the role reversal, as well.

 

[MrFox]

If Durango is expected to be sold at 2013/11.... When Microsoft can begin the manufacturing process?

I don't know, but I suppose they would need to have started working with micron years ago (that's not impossible is it? Everything is so secret for this generation). If they are members of HMC, maybe they can accelerate the process, and making sure the standards don't conflict with what they already have. But there's a big hiccup in all this... where is AMD? They are the ones who should be members of both of these task groups, not microsoft or sony.

The WideIO2 isn't really further along, they just begun last year... still no final standard.

The High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) task group in JC-42 has been working since March 2011

 

[AlphaWolf]

The 360 started manufacturing around 3 months before launch. They were in quite limited supply and we're forced to use air shipping so I don't think they'd want to repeat.

 

[Helmore]

The 360 started manufacturing around 3 months before launch. They were in quite limited supply and we're forced to use air shipping so I don't think they'd want to repeat.

Wouldn't it be more accurate to look at the current state of affairs if we want to make an educated guess as for when Microsoft should start production at the latest? Like, how many months before launch does Apple start producing their iPhone? Or the same for the Microsoft Surface or the Samsung Galaxy S3? Or the same for any other reasonably high volume consumer electronics? (Although the iPhone is in a lot higher volume than any Console has ever been.) Or shouldn't there be much difference between how things are done between 2005 and 2013?

 

[AlphaWolf]

If you've got those numbers and think they bear hearing, feel free to add them. It does seem that the 360 was rushed a bit to launch so I wouldn't expect to see a shorter lead time.

 

[McHuj]

Wouldn't it be more accurate to look at the current state of affairs if we want to make an educated guess as for when Microsoft should start production at the latest? Like, how many months before launch does Apple start producing their iPhone? Or the same for the Microsoft Surface or the Samsung Galaxy S3? Or the same for any other reasonably high volume consumer electronics? (Although the iPhone is in a lot higher volume than any Console has ever been.) Or shouldn't there be much difference between how things are done between 2005 and 2013?

I would think that 6 months prior things will really start to pick up. The one thing with Apple (and other cell companies) is that I think they can really leverage the prior phone's production line. Yes there are changes, often major, but I don't think it's as drastic having to basically build all new infrastructure for a new product (not a revision).

The other thing to consider is how many wafers will MS get (and from whom). According to Fudzilla, TSMC should be able to run 75-80k wafers in Decemeber. To keep it simple, assume its 100k wafers per month (all dedicated to MS). And we get about 500 chips per wafer (assuming a chip size of about ~100mm on a 300mm wafer and perfect yields). 100k wafers * 500 chips/wafer / 2 chips/console = 25 million consoles/month. lol.

Now assume an extreme low: MS only gets 1k wafers (1% of the capacity) and only 10% yields (50 chips per wafer) that's a meager 25k consoles per month. Good luck launching with that.

My guess is that MS would like ~2 million consoles for a US/EU launch for November/December. How many wafers MS can get and where and how good those yields are things that definitely dictate how quickly they can build up that stock. Since there are so many companies at TSMC competing for capacity, it wouldn't surprise me if MS would go with a 32nm solution from Global Foundries/Samsung.

 

[LXFBN]

According to a tweet by superDAE 15 minutes ago, Durango is now officially Beta.

 

[arijoytunir]

According to a tweet by superDAE 15 minutes ago, Durango is now officially Beta.

 

[arijoytunir]

looks like hd 8000m is going in ps4/xbox next

http://www.techpowerup.com/177432/A...es-Detailed-Performance-Figures-Released.html

 

[DoctorFouad]

looks like hd 8000m is going in ps4/xbox next

http://www.techpowerup.com/177432/A...es-Detailed-Performance-Figures-Released.html

thanks this is I think this is our first OFFICIAL confirmation that at least one of the next gen consoles would use an AMD GPU unless they mean Nintendo Wii and xbox360

what can we expect from this chipset for consoles ? can they produce a SOC with this ?

 

[Rangers]

It doesnt appear particularly beefy. Top version is 640 SP's and ~1TF.

Also as they're saying on GAF the slide is very general, speaking of AMD rather than any particular model, and even could be referring to 360, Wii, and Wii U imo. I wouldn't put too much into it just yet.

 

[ultragpu]

Sounds weaker than a Pitcairn, disappointing.

 

[arijoytunir]

It doesnt appear particularly beefy. Top version is 640 SP's and ~1TF.

amd hav'nt yet showed the hd 8900m series which i expect will be more powerful like the hd 7970m but more efficient !

 

[Ruskie]

thanks for destroying the internet myth that sony is broke.

so can we now move on from the resulting myth that sony (a hardware company) cannot compete hardware wise with microsoft (a software company), just because the latter has more money than the former ?

microsoft was also a much more wealthier company than sony the days of development of the xbox360, but I remember that it was microsoft having troubles competing with sony hardware wise (CELL processor, Blu Ray, HDMI, WiFi, Hard Disk...) not the opposit

Sony is not broke, but one more PS3 adventure and they are out. Currently, they are junk status. That means that they will have VERY big trouble borrowing the money, and when they do it their rates will be considerably bigger than for companies with good status (MS, Google, Samsung etc.)

Being hardware company makes very little difference in terms of competing on performance front. Sony doesn't exactly develop anything in their console (GPU, CPU, memory) and they get parts their hardware team chooses from the same vendors as MS. I can guarantee you that MS, being enormous company, has very competent hardware designers and architects and them being software first company is not a big deal.

With PS3 Sony bet big and MS wasn't aiming to include everything for cost reasons. Remember, Sony still had PS2 making big bucks while MS had Xbox that was money pit of big proportions.

amd hav'nt yet showed the hd 8900m series which i suspect will be more powerful like the hd 7970m but more efficient !

The slide doesn't say consoles are using 8xxx/m series, it only confirms AMD is in console business. Its company's roadmap, not console specs.

BTW Someone posted Durango terms of use on Pastebin. Not that its anything major or even legit.
http://pastebin.com/LJsmkiZ6

 

[arijoytunir]

The slide doesn't say consoles are using 8xxx/m series, it only confirms AMD is in console business. Its company's roadmap, not console specs.

i am not saying that the nxt gen will use 8000 series ; i am expecting it to be ! see at the right bottom of the picture - its shows hd 8000m ; so the slide is related to the 8000m series!

 

[Love_In_Rio]

Sony is not broke, but one more PS3 adventure and they are out. Currently, they are junk status. That means that they will have VERY big trouble borrowing the money, and when they do it their rates will be considerably bigger than for companies with good status (MS, Google, Samsung etc.)

Being hardware company makes very little difference in terms of competing on performance front. Sony doesn't exactly develop anything in their console (GPU, CPU, memory) and they get parts their hardware team chooses from the same vendors as MS. I can guarantee you that MS, being enormous company, has very competent hardware designers and architects and them being software first company is not a big deal.

With PS3 Sony bet big and MS wasn't aiming to include everything for cost reasons. Remember, Sony still had PS2 making big bucks while MS had Xbox that was money pit of big proportions.


The slide doesn't say consoles are using 8xxx/m series, it only confirms AMD is in console business. Its company's roadmap, not console specs.

BTW Someone posted Durango terms of use on Pastebin. Not that its anything major or even legit.
http://pastebin.com/LJsmkiZ6

I expect MS by now has also good motherboard engineers. The Xbox 360 motherboard layout was a disaster compared to the one of PS3.

 

[DoctorFouad]

Being hardware company makes very little difference in terms of competing on performance front. Sony doesn't exactly develop anything in their console (GPU, CPU, memory) and they get parts their hardware team chooses from the same vendors as MS. I can guarantee you that MS, being enormous company, has very competent hardware designers and architects and them being software first company is not a big deal.

this is a little bit taking it into the extreme side dont you think ? sony was a hardware company from the very beginning, Microsoft a software one from the very beginning, you cant jump from one into the other that easily and safely do you ? I mean just look at what happened to them with xbox1 (they were obliged litterally to stop producing these things, they were loosing money like crazy, thats not in my dictionary the best definition of competent hardware designers and architects, they litterally assembled a PC not a console), and for xbox360 hardware failure scandal....

I wont be glad of my supposed brilliant hardware engineers if I was a major shareholder in Microsoft, they make me loose billions of dollars due to elementary hardware design mistakes (rule n°1 : reliability of hardware is very important (xbox360), rule n°2 be realistic with costs (xbox1)), and I wont be suprised if they tell me that microsoft officials conducted a serious investigation within their company just to find out who was responsible for that...

of course you can tell me that kutaragi did a huge mistake regarding the costs of ps3, true, but not to the same level of xbox1, at least ps3 chipsets were almost owned by sony and a very ambitious shrinkable chipsets roadmap was already in his plans from the very beginning...if we look today at the ps3 (which is commeercially profitable) he wasent that wrong after all...his main mistake was that of the exaggerated 10 year plan to recover costs and pay for the investments...

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Sony business manoeuvring here.

 

[Ruskie]

this is a little bit taking it into the extreme side dont you think ? sony was a hardware company from the very beginning, Microsoft a software one from the very beginning, you cant jump from one into the other that easily and safely do you ? I mean just look at what happened to them with xbox1 (they were obliged litterally to stop producing these things, they were loosing money like crazy, thats not in my dictionary the best definition of competent hardware designers and architects, they litterally assembled a PC not a console), and for xbox360 hardware failure scandal....

I wont be glad of my supposed brilliant hardware engineers if I was a major shareholder in Microsoft, they make me loose billions of dollars due to elementary hardware design mistakes (rule n°1 : reliability of hardware is very important (xbox360), rule n°2 be realistic with costs (xbox1)), and I wont be suprised if they tell me that microsoft officials conducted a serious investigation within their company just to find out who was responsible for that...

of course you can tell me that kutaragi did a huge mistake regarding the costs of ps3, true, but not to the same level of xbox1, at least ps3 chipsets were almost owned by sony and a very ambitious shrinkable chipsets roadmap was already in his plans from the very beginning...if we look today at the ps3 (which is commeercially profitable) he wasent that wrong after all...his main mistake was that of the exaggerated 10 year plan...

No, its not taking it to extreme. MS has very talented pool of hardware designers and thats all they need. You need people who can imagine and design system, and people who can make good partnership with companies that have expertise in developing specific parts for design MS hardware team came up with.

Today big companies aim to be both (software and hardware), as you can't have one without other. Sony was big dog of hardware companies 10 years ago and Samsung was a little kid on the block and you see how things turned out for them in couple years? Couple mistakes one one end and couple of good picks on the other make the world difference, and the reason why one picked good and other picked bad is in management (since you mentioned Kaz). He was wrong on pretty much everything.

Xbox being money pit has more to do with Nvidia deal than hardware design team expertise. MS negotiated bad deal with Nvidia duo to the fact that they needed to come quickly to the market and the fact that Nvidia had best GPUs at the time. They didn't have experience and next time (360) they made sure they negotiate better deal with other vendor.

 

[DoctorFouad]

No, its not taking it to extreme. MS has very talented pool of hardware designers and thats all they need. You need people who can imagine and design system, and people who can make good partnership with companies that have expertise in developing specific parts for design MS hardware team came up with.

Today big companies aim to be both (software and hardware), as you can't have one without other. Sony was big dog of hardware companies 10 years ago and Samsung was a little kid on the block and you see how things turned out for them in couple years? Couple mistakes one one end and couple of good picks on the other make the world difference, and the reason why one picked good and other picked bad is in management (since you mentioned Kaz). He was wrong on pretty much everything.

Xbox being money pit has more to do with Nvidia deal than hardware design team expertise. MS negotiated bad deal with Nvidia duo to the fact that they needed to come quickly to the market and the fact that Nvidia had best GPUs at the time. They didn't have experience and next time (360) they made sure they negotiate better deal with other vendor.

the problem with your reasoning is that you are imposing double standards.

If I tell you the following : the best thing for ps4 is to have an intel processor and an nvidia GPU. you would tell me : thats a bad choice, you are not a good hardware engineer, both companies offer their products at a very expensive price, its not practical, you should have picked a processor from AMD or IBM and a custom cheap GPU from AMD...

you wont at all be tolerant and supportive with my choices and tell me : OK thats a great choice ! these companies offer nowadays great off the shelf products with great performance ! We will try to negociate very hard with them to buy the parts you picked up !

But you are making an apology for microsoft engineers, saying that its the management team fault with xbox1...

you should choose your side : as a hardware engineer do i have or not to take into account the costs of harwdare I pick up ? but you just cant impose double standards as you wish...