As to launch games, it depends if you think the first party titles are what matters, both will have similar support from 3rd parties if they are shipping in similar timeframes. Sony or Ms could ship with no 1st party support and sell out the first Xmas.
The software really won't matter for the first Xmas anyway as long as it's a step above 360/PS3/WiiU, WiiU will likely outsell both combined in their first Xmas just because of supply limitations. Where the software really matters is differentiating for the second Xmas where supply is less of an issue.
maybe so, it took me a lot of convincing to get a console this gen. I didn't get a 360 till 2 years later after, and i think a lot of people too. but you're right about them selling out either way.
Historically MS' tools are considered the best, at launch of 360/PS3 it was by a fairly large margin, Sony have closed the gap somewhat over the last 7 years, and I know some people who prefer Sony's tools if only because the PS3 linker is a bit faster than the MS one.
Corrinne Yu explained it in an interview, a lot of developers use the "easy way" on Xbox 360 games, even first party devs. And dev kits had only 512mb ram until 2010.
I've been thinking about what the easy way means, it should be no clue on why epic's UT3 engine became commonly used instead of in house engines.
However I'm still shocked on halo 3 comparing it to the surrounding titles before it, on the bases of perfect tools. I mean for the time they were Microsoft's right hand open to "the best" software. but the down grade and upgrade is hard to imagine it was on the same console.
In this gen, halo started out being less then most launch titles, and then ended up refocusing as a franchise.... but why almost 7 years later in it's life cycle if the tools were already sophisticated?
maybe the dev kits having limited memory could have been that major factor. in 07 and 08 the 360 had quite a few titles that needed tremendous fixing, like too human, mass effect and gears of war 2.
what My basic thoughts are on what both companies will aim for to "improve" the next gen are-
(excluding tech specifications)
Microsoft - new features, IPs that have a reason to exploit the hardware, and improve reliability.
Sony- same as usual, steady momentum of IPs but convey to the affordable demographic.
And out of both companies that can pull off these ideas sooner would be sony. for ms, economically they're in no rush. the only rush i see for them is looking for better IPs, and if they're aren't any to launch a new console then it loses reason.
