Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[Shifty Geezer]

Oh there is plenty of room left for predictions. We only think we know who won the GPU contracts but we have no certainty on the CPUs, memory technology and architecture, or peripheral technologies (controllers, cameras, storage) or core services.

Yes, but the factors affecting those choices (cost, heat, performance, compatibility) have all been identified with no reasonable consensus, so we have a list of options and nowhere to go really.

1) AMD x86 APU
2) AMD x86 CPU and GPU
3) IBM PPC CPU and AMD GPU

I think that's about it for both boxes. We're not looking at oddball options as we could discuss earlier. Cell2 + RDRAM at 500 Gbps, or an ARM+Rogue box, or a new raytracing architecture, seem highly unlikely now. The only way we'll get closer to seeing what's in the boxes now is to follow the rumours, rather than try and weigh the pros/cons of each design.

It's always funny to revist the beginnings of old threads.

"What?" you say, "Next Gen has just started! We wont be seeing new consoles for nearly 5 years".

We were so young and naive back then.

 

[cteam]

here is a few ideas on the Memory Technology sent to me by Jeff_rigby on gaf today

Are you the one who suggesting google helping sony R/D for PS4 ?

I know this is way out there, but what if Google is helping with the PS4 R&D just to insure that Microsoft don't take over the TV.

IMHO very bad observation

Aso the one like

I wouldn't even be surprised if there is a Sony camera in the Kinect 2.

the thing is PS4 will be closed system.

 

[onQ]

Yes, but the factors affecting those choices (cost, heat, performance, compatibility) have all been identified with no reasonable consensus, so we have a list of options and nowhere to go really.

1) AMD x86 APU
2) AMD x86 CPU and GPU
3) IBM PPC CPU and AMD GPU

I think that's about it for both boxes. We're not looking at oddball options as we could discuss earlier. Cell2 + RDRAM at 500 Gbps, or an ARM+Rogue box, or a new raytracing architecture, seem highly unlikely now. The only way we'll get closer to seeing what's in the boxes now is to follow the rumours, rather than try and weigh the pros/cons of each design.

It's always funny to revist the beginnings of old threads.

We were so young and naive back then.

All the info that we have are from Dev-kits right?

So what are the chances that the Cell redesign with 1 PU & 4 SPUs from the patent that came out a few years ago could still be apart of the SOC for BC?

Are you the one who suggesting google helping sony R/D for PS4 ?


IMHO very bad observation

Aso the one like


the thing is PS4 will be closed system.

That's funny because even Microsoft think that Sony will have GoogleTV as part of the PS4.

 

[Acert93]

Yes. It has changed recently imo.

In your opinion /or/ the source has indicated such?

And for the record? Some of us don't visit NeoGAF and when we have tried to register they *never* approve registration. So I would respectfully request EVERY reference to GAF, not unlike to HardOCP/Anand/Toms/Xbit/IGN/Edge/Eurogamer/DF/etc etc, be linked. B3D is *not* some 2nd hand playground for GAF.

Thanks in advance (and this isn't specifically directed at Rangers but the constant references to "so and so said on GAF" etc).

It's speculation on top of speculation at that point, but these are rumored 8000 series /Sea Islands specs.

Since I've always assumed the actual GPU in Durango would be a 8000 series not a 7k series, well the Mars units look pretty tasty, and more punchy than Cape Verde. 768 SP's beats the 640 in HD7770.

Tasty? Tasty??! Get a hold of your senses man!

Using these fictional specs compare Oland and Mars:

70% more die (135mm^2 vs. 230mm^2) you get:

140% (40 vs. 96) more TMUs
100% (758 vs. 1536) more shaders
100% (16 vs. 32) more ROPs
100% (1 vs. 2) more rasture engines
100% (128 vs. 256) wider bus

I know you have fallen in love with the budget range discreet chips ( ) but I probably don't need to remind you that the 360 BOM was pretty reasonable and the total die space for Xenos was larger than this "Oland" prediction and iirc so was RSX. As I believe CPU die space (due to heat, performance, etc) has less ROI I don't see why both CPU and GPU die space needs to shrink unless consoles are going budget.

But in that case I wouldn't call it "tasty."

No,
I'm talking about the part where IBM secretly went behind Sony's back, and basically gave Microsoft the PPU.....basically.

XBOX 360's Xenon is based off of the Cell Processor....at least in part.

Stop thugging the facts!

Hint: IBM had developed the core of what was Waternoose and had pitched it around. Sony didn't have exclusive tabs on it. In fact it is the most "normal" and non-CELL-ish aspect of the Cell processor (LS instead of cache, EIB, SPEs with SIMD focus, etc are all very central to the design concept... PPU, not so much). Actually, based on your tone I can say this, you should be happy MS went with the PPC cores. If they had been able to swing a deal for an x64 X2 from AMD that would have caused more issues imo.

The OP is flat as a pancake under the weight of all these other posts!

Yeah, great weight loss program!

 

[Shifty Geezer]

the thing is PS4 will be closed system.

1) What has PS4 being a closed system got to do with MS's choice of component manufacturers for Kinect 2? Sony have a very good tech in their low-light ExmorR lens and stacked manufacturing process that makes it a good option for any camera tech.

2) Where is this conversation coming from? I can't find that quote in OnQ's post, or a search of this thread. If it's a conversation from GAF, then it doesn't belong here. We are not affiliated with GAF and there's no relation between conversations here and there other than quotes of information, other than some members having membership there too. It's worth noting that there are posters in GAF who were kicked out of B3D for posting drivvel (in our opinions).

As Acert says, any references (on topic and relevant, such as rumours from a trusted source) to GAF posts should be linked+quoted as you would any other internet reference as required.

 

[cteam]

All the info that we have are from Dev-kits right?

So what are the chances that the Cell redesign with 1 PU & 4 SPUs from the patent that came out a few years ago could still be apart of the SOC for BC?






That's funny because even Microsoft think that Sony will have GoogleTV as part of the PS4.

No, it isn't, it shows possibility that Google TV will be integrated into PS4.
There is no indication Google help sony R/D for PS4.

It is like sony choose to use Chrome for browser integrated into PS4
or Sony will choose windows 8 ARM for their newest 2012 Tablet OS.
It is bussiness as usual, Samsung or other vendor have googleTV devices too
not indicating Google help their R/D.

 

[onQ]

No, it isn't, it shows possibility that Google TV will be integrated into PS4.
There is no indication Google help sony R/D for PS4.

It is like sony choose to use Chrome for browser integrated into PS4
or Sony will choose windows 8 ARM for their newest 2012 Tablet OS.
It is bussiness as usual, Samsung or other vendor have googleTV devices too
not indicating Google help their R/D.

What is your argument? you picked a post I made on Neogaf speculating about Google having a hand in with PS4 R&D & trying to argue against it like I said it was a fact. then you said that the PS4 will be a closed system as if you know that for a fact & I was just telling you that even MS think that the PS4 will have Google TV.

so what is your argument & what was your point of even bringing that to this website?

 

[SKYSONY]

Yes. It has changed recently imo.

You seem to suggest in several post things (and lherre posts) have changed and PS4 could be the most powerful system. What makes you think that way? You have any kind of good info?

 

[Rangers]

Tasty? Tasty??! Get a hold of your senses man!

Using these fictional specs compare Oland and Mars:

70% more die (135mm^2 vs. 230mm^2) you get:

140% (40 vs. 96) more TMUs
100% (758 vs. 1536) more shaders
100% (16 vs. 32) more ROPs
100% (1 vs. 2) more rasture engines
100% (128 vs. 256) wider bus

I know you have fallen in love with the budget range discreet chips ( ) but I probably don't need to remind you that the 360 BOM was pretty reasonable and the total die space for Xenos was larger than this "Oland" prediction and iirc so was RSX. As I believe CPU die space (due to heat, performance, etc) has less ROI I don't see why both CPU and GPU die space needs to shrink unless consoles are going budget.

But in that case I wouldn't call it "tasty."

Well, just based on the rumors/hinting that Durango may use something in the Cape Verde Range. That's 7770 with 640 SP's or 7750 with 512. So a 768 SP Mars would be a nice upgrade without breaking the silicon bank.

It's low end for desktop, but talking about 1.7 billion transistors (Mars, 1.5B Cape Verde) vs 232m (+EDRAM scraps) in Xenos puts it in perspective as still a ginormous complexity leap.

Also, I believe Xenos parent die was ~180mm. Mars is 135mm according to that. Both would feature EDRAM. So to say, it's not a monumental difference. To go to the next step Oland would require a significant increase over Xenos budget.

 

[McHuj]

It's always funny to revist the beginnings of old threads.

We were so young and naive back then.

People should go back and reread the first couple pages. It's funny how off and how dead on some of the posts are.


I hope I was/am completely wrong, post #17.

At least with Xbox360 and PS3, a major driver for the spec upgrades was the jump from SD to HD resolutions. In the next gen, there won't be another jump in resolution. So I wonder if we'll see a similar approach from Sony and MS like Nintendo, a console that's only 3-5x more powerful then the previous gen, but more efficient and cost optimized.

 

[Rangers]

You seem to suggest in several post things (and lherre posts) have changed and PS4 could be the most powerful system. What makes you think that way? You have any kind of good info?

Personally I do not think more powerful GPU=more powerful automatically. The way it stands supposedly is Durango more RAM, Orbis more GPU. And I think the specs are subject to change too. It's too early to call one more powerful imo. There is also the CPU side, as we see with Wii U rumors it could play a big part, so for example if Durango is better on CPU (I dont know anything about this, just hypothetical), that can factor in to "more powerful" arguments too. For example, just a few of the caveats :

-Can we narrow down Durango's terfalops rating beyond "~1TF"? Because there's a big difference between say, .8 and 1.3, relative to Orbis supposed 1.8. Not even to speak of other specifics of each GPU.

-Is Orbis going to end up at 2GB or 4GB? How much for OS?

-How's the bandwith situation on Durango going to play out? Might there even be VRAM? Will it be able to utilize it's slow RAM to the fullest?

-CPU, on both sides.

-How much OS on Durango? Just taking recent rumor permutations alone, you could conceivably be looking at anything from an 8GB-2Gb edge for Durango, to only 5GB Durango after OS to 4GB Orbis (much faster), which comparison would lean to Orbis even for the RAM.

-Even things like which has better/faster built in flash, or optical drive, could play in.

Until we get better spec leaks or maybe even get to look at the games E3 2013, it's very speculative. Besides that I'm sure the mods dont want this to be a vs thread.

One things for sure Durango is more unknown, but even taking the low edge of the PS4 specs, essentially a 7850 +2GB of VRAM, I think a full high settings PC spec port, textures and all, of Crysis 3 is possible @1080P with little optimization, which is pretty damn exciting in my book. Then, Killzone 2/3 PS3 show whats going to be possible with eventual optimization will be mind blowing.

 

[Rangers]

That vgleaks website seems pretty accurate so far and they claim to have first pic of Durango, same Matrix theme as the other pics, but they claim more coming soon

http://www.vgleaks.com/announcement-microsofts-new-machine-here-on-vgleaks/

They do match with the other leak, http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=39499007&postcount=2302 The Vgleaks story was posted one day after the GAF thread.

The monitor appears to have a different bezel though. And there's an interesting circle of dots loading icon present in some of the pics in both "leaks", that do not match (EG, they seem to be unique pictures) and make me think it may be more than just some yahoo with a Matrix screensaver.

Edit: and apparently the source is the same person, "DaE", in both cases, did not catch that at first. Here's his twitter https://twitter.com/superdae

Hmm, and what is this? Besides this guy seems to make a lot of vulgar gay sex references making me wonder if he's a troll, look what he's posted as "proof" ...

His location is interesting. Raleigh NC.

 

[ultragpu]

but even taking the low edge of the PS4 specs, essentially a 7850 +2GB of VRAM, I think a full high settings PC spec port, textures and all, of Crysis 3 is possible @1080P with little optimization, which is pretty damn exciting in my book. Then, Killzone 2/3 PS3 show whats going to be possible with eventual optimization will be mind blowing.

I hope the game do get ported to PS4 at some point, along with the previous entries too. And yeah KZ4 should look nuts, I can imagine BF3 style graphics on steroid.

That vgleaks website seems pretty accurate so far and they claim to have first pic of Durango, same Matrix theme as the other pics, but they claim more coming soon

http://www.vgleaks.com/announcement-microsofts-new-machine-here-on-vgleaks/

They do match with the other leak, http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=39499007&postcount=2302 The Vgleaks story was posted one day after the GAF thread.

The monitor appears to have a different bezel though. And there's an interesting circle of dots loading icon present in some of the pics in both "leaks", that do not match (EG, they seem to be unique pictures) and make me think it may be more than just some yahoo with a Matrix screensaver.

Edit: and apparently the source is the same person, "DaE", in both cases, did not catch that at first. Here's his twitter https://twitter.com/superdae

Hmm, and what is this? Besides this guy seems to make a lot of vulgar gay sex references making me wonder if he's a troll, look what he's posted as "proof" ...



His location is interesting. Raleigh NC.

That infinite icon on the top left also looks eerily suspicious don't you think, with all the Xbox 8 rumor going around?
I can see things are getting interesting for the coming week.

 

[fehu]

I've found another leak showing the durango sdk :O

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Where's the Matrix backdrop? Clearly fake.

 

[fehu]

It's covered by word of course :O
Maybe it can look more legit with a paper covering something on the keyboard :/

 

[Rangers]

It's either a practical joke by him or real. I'm inclined to believe the latter, and i have my reasons. If so, expect some stuff to pop up on vgleaks soon.

 

[antwan]

Btw, I also predict an nvidia GPU showing up as well, now with the AMD APU off the table.
PS4 will probably also use XDR2, as it's kind of tied to the new Cell processor.

The 360 successor will also stick with IBM, according to my source. It might even have SPU's as well, but they will have slower memory and they might be called differently.

I see no future in X86 at all

 

[onQ]

That vgleaks website seems pretty accurate so far and they claim to have first pic of Durango, same Matrix theme as the other pics, but they claim more coming soon

http://www.vgleaks.com/announcement-microsofts-new-machine-here-on-vgleaks/

They do match with the other leak, http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=39499007&postcount=2302 The Vgleaks story was posted one day after the GAF thread.

The monitor appears to have a different bezel though. And there's an interesting circle of dots loading icon present in some of the pics in both "leaks", that do not match (EG, they seem to be unique pictures) and make me think it may be more than just some yahoo with a Matrix screensaver.

Edit: and apparently the source is the same person, "DaE", in both cases, did not catch that at first. Here's his twitter https://twitter.com/superdae

Hmm, and what is this? Besides this guy seems to make a lot of vulgar gay sex references making me wonder if he's a troll, look what he's posted as "proof" ...

His location is interesting. Raleigh NC.

Raleigh NC so it could come from Epic.

 

[fehu]

It's either a practical joke by him or real. I'm inclined to believe the latter, and i have my reasons. If so, expect some stuff to pop up on vgleaks soon.

It's running on an intel c2d su7300, so i think that x86 is confirmed