Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[liolio]

I think it's possible that the (temporary) next PlayStation will be a firmware update.
This gives Sony more time to create the 'real' next gen PS4, using 4D stacking, Cell2, quad layer BD, 3D IO interconnects and other things I am predicting.
Should a next Xbox come out before the PS4 is finished, Sony can just release the update and be done with it.

Also, the gaikai stream could be frame doubled with minimal input lag thanks to Cell, that way it will appear much smoother.

Also, I predict 2GB of unified XDR2 ram for the PS4. Why? it's fast and reliable. Plus rambus has been a great sony partner for the past 2 generations.

You read nothing of what Aaron tried to explained us wrt memory cube, wide IO, memory production costs, etc. right?

And I'm not a Nobel price winner I don't understand 4d stacking lol.

Has my sarcasm meter failed and I'm actually missing your real point?

 

[anexanhume]

You read nothing of what Aaron tried to explained us wrt memory cube, wide IO, memory production costs, etc. right?

And I'm not a Nobel price winner I don't understand 4d stacking lol.

Has my sarcasm meter failed and I'm actually missing your real point?

I hope mine is broken. I'm sure developers vomit at the thought of another Cell. They'd love for both MS and Sony to use x86. Easier ports from PC and from console to console.

 

[liolio]

I hope mine is broken. I'm sure developers vomit at the thought of another Cell. They'd love for both MS and Sony to use x86. Easier ports from PC and from console to console.

Not that willing to speak about the Cell, but srt to X86 I wonder if that may have an impact on Nintendo in the long run.
I've the feeling lately that Nintendo might have been better with an AMD only design too.

 

[antwan]

I hope mine is broken. I'm sure developers vomit at the thought of another Cell. They'd love for both MS and Sony to use x86. Easier ports from PC and from console to console.

Is that not the biggest misconception like... ever?
> that using x86 would lead to easier programming. (hint: programmers don't write in x86)

ontopic: given the fact that multiplatform titles are on par now, I figured developers, or their tools adapted to the PS3 architecture. That is why I predict a more powerful Cell for the PS4. They just need to make the 'general' PPU part more powerful so that even the least qualified developers can get on par performance out of the box.
The SPU's would find a lot of love from developers who are up to the task (polyphony, santa monica, naughty dog, and so on). And gamers like myself would benefit the most.

If they want to focus on multiplatform titles with an occasional UE3 exclusive (like MS these past years), then the SPU's will be rather expensive

 

[liolio]

Hint tools are the best in town
SIMD (and the matching ISA) are the same.
On a core basis perfs could be more or less the same.
Same strength, the weakness etc.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Why not go for a hybrid appraoch? I agree it's way to early for a streaming-online console - but having powerful hardware that's ALSO really good at running your very own streaming service won't hurt.

Actually this could have a lot to do with the PS4 hardware, because the PS4 can have hardware designed to take advantage of the service & also things like the hardware video encoding could mean that the PS4 will be a personal server for your other devices & they might be using the Gaikai tech instead of the old Remote Play tech.

Simple summary: PS4 will have CPU + GPU + RAM (this thread) plus maybe some custom Gaikai encoder, or that's done on the CPU + GPU. Unless you want to hazard a guess at the type and size and cost of this encoder chip, along with the make, model, size and cost of whatever DSPs, IO controllers, HDDs and SSDs and other compontents will feature in the next-gen consoles, I still say that whatever system used to implement Gaikai on PS4 has little bearing on the hardware choices of RAM, CPU, GPU, clocks, watts, and costs.

The notion of the box being a thin client falls under the mnext-gen business model. If PS4 goes thin-client, it forfeits presence in this thread because it no longer is a console.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

From the Gaikai acquisition thread, one idea does present itself. If Sony want to stream PS4 games or demos, they may want hardware compatibility between servers and PS4s for developer convenience (write one bit of code and it runs on both the steam servers and the PS4 hardware). This could be part of the reason for an 'off-the-shelf' design and x86 in PS4, making it PC like. Or looking at it from the other way, what server design would be ideal for streamed games, and what would that be like repackaged into a console?

 

[aaronspink]

Is that not the biggest misconception like... ever?
> that using x86 would lead to easier programming. (hint: programmers don't write in x86)

No.

Largest set of developer tools? x86
Largest set of support tools and libraries? x86
Most mobile/portable developer environment? x86
ISA the majority of all developer know? x86

ontopic: given the fact that multiplatform titles are on par now, I figured developers, or their tools adapted to the PS3 architecture. That is why I predict a more powerful Cell for the PS4. They just need to make the 'general' PPU part more powerful so that even the least qualified developers can get on par performance out of the box.
The SPU's would find a lot of love from developers who are up to the task (polyphony, santa monica, naughty dog, and so on). And gamers like myself would benefit the most.

Cell was a dead end before PS3 ever was released. It would by an iceberg called the titanic if sony used it again. This time, many developers may just drop support all together and do it very publicly.

Cell is the exact opposite of any sane model of a console architecture.

 

[Kb-Smoker]

My BOM PS4 Estimate... What do you think guys?

Blu-ray drive - $35
HDD - $50 ???
GPU - $70 AMD 6950 cost [6850 cost AMD $40]
CPU -$95 AMD 4 core Bulldozer [high estimate]
GDDR5 -$43.13 per 2GB [86.26 for 4GB] AMD BOM data sheet

Total $336.26 now we carry over isuppli PS3 slim break down from 2009 couldnt find any else.

Power supply $20.35
Cooler Assembly $11.27
I/O Bridge Controller $5.59
Bluetooth $3.92
Other components $79.52
Manufacturing and test costs $9.81
$130.46

AMD BOM http://img813.imageshack.us/img813/1461/q2msa.gif
http://www.qj.net/qjnet/playstation-...-ps3-slim.html

Total Estimate $466.72

A $66 loss per console sold at $400. With a smaller HDD like 500GB it would bring the cost down by about $20. Anyone have a better cost of HDD? And use a 6850 gpu size core and you are about break even....

 

[Ninjaprime]

My BOM PS4 Estimate... What do you think guys?

Blu-ray drive - $35
HDD - $50 ???
GPU - $70 AMD 6950 cost [6850 cost AMD $40]
CPU -$95 AMD 4 core Bulldozer [high estimate]
GDDR5 -$43.13 per 2GB [86.26 for 4GB] AMD BOM data sheet

Total $336.26 now we carry over isuppli PS3 slim break down from 2009 couldnt find any else.

Power supply $20.35
Cooler Assembly $11.27
I/O Bridge Controller $5.59
Bluetooth $3.92
Other components $79.52
Manufacturing and test costs $9.81
$130.46

AMD BOM http://img813.imageshack.us/img813/1461/q2msa.gif
http://www.qj.net/qjnet/playstation-...-ps3-slim.html

Total Estimate $466.72

A $66 loss per console sold at $400. With a smaller HDD like 500GB it would bring the cost down by about $20. Anyone have a better cost of HDD? And use a 6850 gpu size core and you are about break even....

First reasonable estimate I've seen. I wouldn't be suprised if they aim lower though.

 

[RedVi]

Pitcairn is almost 40mm^2 smaller than barts. On the 28nm process it probably cost more to produce right now, but should be similar if not less by this time next year. CPU would certainly be cheaper, as would the Blu-Ray drive, however I would think the power supply and cooling would cost a bit more for a launch model. Slim models use a lot less power and produce a lot less heat. Either way I think those specs with a 7850 class GPU would be more than $350 but definitely under $400.

 

[babcat]

Is that not the biggest misconception like... ever?
> that using x86 would lead to easier programming. (hint: programmers don't write in x86)

ontopic: given the fact that multiplatform titles are on par now, I figured developers, or their tools adapted to the PS3 architecture. That is why I predict a more powerful Cell for the PS4. They just need to make the 'general' PPU part more powerful so that even the least qualified developers can get on par performance out of the box.
The SPU's would find a lot of love from developers who are up to the task (polyphony, santa monica, naughty dog, and so on). And gamers like myself would benefit the most.

If they want to focus on multiplatform titles with an occasional UE3 exclusive (like MS these past years), then the SPU's will be rather expensive

I totally agree. There is no need to go with a CPU other than the CELL. All they have to do is boost the power of the PPU a bit, overclock the chip, and make a few other small changes. Then they can spend the rest of their budget on the most powerful GPU they can find. Also, this way they can use the same tools they used with the PS3 for programming with the CELL.

 

[fehu]

Considering that microsoft has developed a really modular kernel, and that kinect2 will increase the precision maybe to a level similar to that of a touchscreen, do you think that the nextbox will be another win8 spawn with the ability to run the same metro app developed for win8/winphone8?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Yes. That's more a business discussion though. MS can write Win 8 Metro for whatever hardware they choose, although it would make their life easier to pick a CPU+GPU that matches their other developments. PPC for Durango would be a third ISA to target, whereas x86 or ARM would keep it at two ISAs.

 

[loekf]

Yes. That's more a business discussion though. MS can write Win 8 Metro for whatever hardware they choose, although it would make their life easier to pick a CPU+GPU that matches their other developments. PPC for Durango would be a third ISA to target, whereas x86 or ARM would keep it at two ISAs.

In other news.... looks like someone@Sony has been updating his LinkedIn profile:

http://ic.tweakimg.net/ext/i/imagenormal/1341308826.jpeg

or if you don't want to click, this guy:

http://www.linkedin.com/in/attilavass#profile-projects

Next Generation PlayStation

August 2010 to April 2012
Sony Computer Entertainment America LLC

Team Members: Attila V.

Graphics Library, Security

appearently he was working since 2010 on a graphics lib for the "next-gen playstation"

 

[Arwin]

Interesting, there is a job add here for SCEE for a similar task. Would they have moved this work to SCEE?

 

[upnorthsox]

Could be.

Btw, that guy was at Sony for 14 yrs, that's a long time for tech.

 

[steviep]

I totally agree. There is no need to go with a CPU other than the CELL. All they have to do is boost the power of the PPU a bit, overclock the chip, and make a few other small changes. Then they can spend the rest of their budget on the most powerful GPU they can find. Also, this way they can use the same tools they used with the PS3 for programming with the CELL.

"All they have to do is boost the power of the PPU" - as if it's a trivial task. Like overclocking 300mhz and your solution is there or something?

Sony would be (and now, is) much better off going the 4-core x86 route. Be it with Steamrollers or Jaguars, the architecture is much more familiar to the world development community. They can also leverage the APU/SoC knowledge of AMD since they're using their GPU technology as well, with GPGPU, HSA, and all the goodies that AMD has under their umbrella.

 

[function]

"All they have to do is boost the power of the PPU" - as if it's a trivial task. Like overclocking 300mhz and your solution is there or something?

Sony would be (and now, is) much better off going the 4-core x86 route. Be it with Steamrollers or Jaguars, the architecture is much more familiar to the world development community. They can also leverage the APU/SoC knowledge of AMD since they're using their GPU technology as well, with GPGPU, HSA, and all the goodies that AMD has under their umbrella.

Plus they can benefit from "app" style development and publishing without performance of those apps dropping off the radar. There's an awful lot of developers who can't (for whatever reason) optimise their code for Cell.

 

[(((interference)))]

Signs are pointing to the new Xbox being called Xbox 8

http://au.ign.com/articles/2012/07/03/microsoft-secures-xbox-8-domains
http://www.thisisxbox.com/360/will-the-next-gen-xbox-console-be-named-xbox-8/

Certainly makes sense if they're going for a Windows 8/ Windows Phone 8 / Xbox 8 ecosystem. (Which they should be)