Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[ultragpu]

It still wouldn't be cheapening out on hardware, just less transistors spent on GPU since their aim is to have strong entertainment box too, and you need stronger CPU and more RAM to do that. Than again, we still don't know for fact what they are shooting for, but if that rumor from GAF guy who has good friend working at AMD is anything to go by, than maybe MS isn't cheapening on GPU at all.

He said Sony switched to Jaguar cores, BG if I remember correctly wasn't aware of that at the time, but now seems to think thats the case. That would put some credibility to the rumor I would think.

If they want to make a profit on day one or closer to that then it would mean cheapening out on hardware is true, they may get a generational leap but they are not getting nearly as much of a leap as they could if going the taking a loss route. But I guess in the grand scheme of things that really doesn't matter as long as the leap is significant enough.
I'm also waiting on more leaks from the latest dev kits, keep up the good work bgassassin.

 

[Ruskie]

If they want to make a profit on day one or closer to that then it would mean cheapening out on hardware is true, they may get a generational leap but they are not getting nearly as much of a leap as they could if going the taking a loss route. But I guess in the grand scheme of things that really doesn't matter as long as the leap is significant enough.
I'm also waiting on more leaks from the latest dev kits, keep up the good work bgassassin.

I wouldn't say that getting best possible hardware in the box for you to still not lose substantial amount of money on it and still being competitive and healthy priced on the market is cheapening. Console manufacturers can't go for ~8 year generations if they start making serious money on 5th or 6th year like this gen. They need to make money from first, or second year, otherwise it makes little sense to make them.

Tablet and phone market changed console business quite a bit, and I think MS and Sony realized that and that they are better out of the business if they are to repeat this generation next time.

 

[ImaginaryInsider]

That's not logical reasoning. It's illogical reasoning to expect BOTH company to go utterly gungho and sink billions into HW losses for the sake of appeasing the hardcore. MS especially wont because they see gaming as only a small part of what their xbox platform is about.

That's you're assumption... it's obvious that MS has always had more plans for the Xbox brand than "just gaming", but you're taking that point and running away with it. More than likely they still see gaming as an important part of the brand, and are painfully aware what a complete alienation of that segment would do for a newly launching console. We have no clue what a packed-in Kinect 2.0 would cost, we have no idea if MS will leverage Xbox-Live subscription fees to help subsidize their future consoles pricing ala cell phones.

There is a difference between blindly appeasing the hardcore's insane whims and building a cost effective console that puts you comfortably within the next-gen performance ballpark.

 

[bgassassin]

Thanks for that, well, that also matches the rumours that AMD recently finished working on the PS4 and are concentrating on Durango now.



Ok, so the PS4 seems closer to being final specs (other than RAM). This is also in keeping with rumours that they want to launch first.

And the tighter cost control makes complete sense if you look at their commercial situation .

This is also why I don't see MS ceding the core audience by having a weaker machine.
Unlike Sony, they can afford to (at least) match Orbis' relatively conservative specs (it's no PS2/3) so why wouldn't they?

I wouldn't be surprised to see AMD and Sony not being finished considering they are still a year away. AMD may have shifted work over to MS' console for now and are waiting till Sea Islands is more tangible. After all Sony's specs only said 18 CUs. It didn't say they were 7000-series CUs. I've only used the Pitcairn comparison because it's the only tangible GPU to compare it to.

The rumor I read was a link posted on GAF saying people at Sony Corporate like Kaz Hirai wanted to stay at 2GB for profitability reasons but Sony 1st parties are quite unhappy with 2GB and have aggressively lobbied for more ram. And that supposedly the 4GB side is winning the argument. Is that true ? Who knows.

I remember that rumor and that may have occurred probably early on in the planning stages. From what I know (and is now available publicly) 4GB was always a possibility as it was in the early target specs, but that they were going to do it if there was a density increase in GDDR5. So it seems they are intent on having a single pool of memory. So if Kaz rumor is true, the 4GB mention in the early target specs may have been a slight concession.

What I think you GAF forumers got wrong is the discussion about the Xbox 3 GPU. When you claim its GPU is weaker than PS4 GPU, it´s based on old rumors that claimed the Xbox 3 was gonna get a 6000 series Radeon vs the latest rumors that claim the PS4 one is a 7000 series.

According to lherre, the are some Xbox dev kits that already have a 7000 series Radeon. And the final hardware could end up with a 8000 series Radeon. The russian "insider" seem to suggest the latest dev kits have TWO Radeon 8000. If the 360 dev kits are any indication, as they also had teo GPUs, this could mean the Xbox 3 GPU is omething hybrid more advanced than the GPUs which are currently available.

This is just speculation, but my point is the Xbox 3 is not gonna have a Radeon 6000 by any mean, as there are already dev kits with a more powerful GPU.

This post says you haven't read any of my posts here (or on GAF). When did I ever say there was a 6000-series GPU in the kit? And if you read one of my recent posts here, you would have seen that I got the Xbox info a month ago so it's far from old. And where in the world did this "Russian insider" pop up from? And not only have I not said it won't end up with an 8000 series-level GPU, I've said that I pretty much expect PS4 and Xbox 3 to have one due to it's release time frame. It's not the people got it wrong, you just apparently have not been reading all the posts that have been made.

Also, two GPUs is nonesense. They'll either go APU + GPU or CPU plus GPU. There's no business nor performance reason to go CPU plus 2xGPU. Plus, given the many reports of a 8-16 core CPU in Durango, it's more likely to be a CPU plus GPU setup. Unless those 16 cores are tiny ARM cores and inside an APU.

Or if that doc is still an indication (meaning they haven't scrapped that design altogether), dual APUs/SoCs. Though I don't think Sky meant two GPUs from a discrete point of view.

 

[Ruskie]

BG, have you received target specs or dev kits sent to developers?

 

[bgassassin]

It still wouldn't be cheapening out on hardware, just less transistors spent on GPU since their aim is to have strong entertainment box too, and you need stronger CPU and more RAM to do that. Than again, we still don't know for fact what they are shooting for, but if that rumor from GAF guy who has good friend working at AMD is anything to go by, than maybe MS isn't cheapening on GPU at all.

He said Sony switched to Jaguar cores, BG if I remember correctly wasn't aware of that at the time, but now seems to think thats the case. That would put some credibility to the rumor I would think.

Correct. I'm working on getting some confirmation about that. The reason why I lean toward it being correct is because the person the Jaguar info came from said something I had heard.

His post.

My response.

I'd have to see how long it was before his posts and when I heard MS had chosen AMD.

BG, have you received target specs or dev kits sent to developers?

What I get are "summarized" versions of the specs if that makes sense.

 

[Prophecy2k]

I wouldn't be surprised to see AMD and Sony not being finished considering they are still a year away. AMD may have shifted work over to MS' console for now and are waiting till Sea Islands is more tangible. After all Sony's specs only said 18 CUs. It didn't say they were 7000-series CUs. I've only used the Pitcairn comparison because it's the only tangible GPU to compare it to.

BG did the PS4 specs you've seen specifically state the number of CUs? Or was that someone's interpretation, given the FLOPS number (1.8TF) and clock speed?

Most of this info. has been quoted and mis-quoted so many times that it gets confusing.

 

[Prophecy2k]

That's you're assumption... it's obvious that MS has always had more plans for the Xbox brand than "just gaming", but you're taking that point and running away with it. More than likely they still see gaming as an important part of the brand, and are painfully aware what a complete alienation of that segment would do for a newly launching console. We have no clue what a packed-in Kinect 2.0 would cost, we have no idea if MS will leverage Xbox-Live subscription fees to help subsidize their future consoles pricing ala cell phones.

There is a difference between blindly appeasing the hardcore's insane whims and building a cost effective console that puts you comfortably within the next-gen performance ballpark.

I didn't say MS wanted to alienate the hardcore. That's you misinterpreting my statement. My point was that MS' USP for it's entire xbox platform is it's online platform, services and kinect. Gaming is a given.

So whether they have a more powerful console than Sony or not is irrelevant to MS. They care not for internet fanboy flame wars. MS will put out a performant console for a reasonable enough price.

My sole point was that neither Sony nor MS will be subsidizing their next-gen console SKUs (i.e. including any possible add-in) by any substantial amounts. Thus, we're saying the same things.

 

[Ruskie]

Correct. I'm working on getting some confirmation about that. The reason why I lean toward it being correct is because the person the Jaguar info came from said something I had heard.

His post.

My response.

I'd have to see how long it was before his posts and when I heard MS had chosen AMD.

Good, so my memory is serving me still. I'm wondering what would make them go from Steamroller to Jaguar though, its generally backwards when final hardware is nearing the finish. You said its big APU, right? Maybe they couldn't fit Pitcairn sized GPU with Steamroller on die.

What I get are "summarized" versions of the specs if that makes sense.

I'm sure it does, to you, but I'm still trying to figure that one out

 

[bgassassin]

BG did the PS4 specs you've seen specifically state the number of CUs? Or was that someone's interpretation, given the FLOPS number (1.8TF) and clock speed?

Most of this info. has been quoted and mis-quoted so many times that it gets confusing.

VGLeaks has them up now.

http://www.vgleaks.com/world-exclusive-ps4-in-deep-first-specs/

I forgot they did say at the time it was based on 7000-series CUs.

I still wouldn't rule out at least some Sea Island influences though.

Good, so my memory is serving me still. I'm wondering what would make them go from Steamroller to Jaguar though, its generally backwards when final hardware is nearing the finish. You said its big APU, right? Maybe they couldn't fit Pitcairn sized GPU with Steamroller on die.

Well Sony's CTO said it was an SoC. I've only used APU since that rumor came out saying APU and everyone else went with that so I jumped on the bandwagon.

However AMD's next line of APUs are "SoC influenced" according to a roadmap I saw so... I don't know.

I'm sure it does, to you, but I'm still trying to figure that one out

Ok. I get told the "important parts" of the target specs. The Xbox 3 info I got was still in the vague stages, so maybe I will get more details eventually or it will come from someone else.

 

[antwan]

AMD 8000 series?

Could that mean Radeon 8150?
Probably read that from an... Israeli insider.
-Also, 8GB 64bit bus connected GDDR3 ram for maximum price efficiency.
-HDMI 1.3a
-32GB Flash.
-Blu ray drive without the ability to play blu-ray discs (see Wii2)
-AA battery powered wireless 2.4 Ghz controllers, not compatible with BT standard (backwards compatible with 360).
-Wireless N built in.
-sort of app store built in, with WIN8 compatibility.

-200mm2 GPU.
-60grams of CPU.
-1.5 teraflop performance single precision
-350 gigaflop double precision.

 

[Grall]

That rumor's a bunch of lies. There aren't GDDR RAM chips large enough to reach 8GB even on 128-bit, and much less 64-bit bus width, and the rest sounds like pure fabrications and wishful thinking at best.

 

[bgassassin]

That rumor's a bunch of lies. There aren't GDDR RAM chips large enough to reach 8GB even on 128-bit, and much less 64-bit bus width, and the rest sounds like pure fabrications and wishful thinking at best.

The VGLeaks site? That's legit as it's been "known" since last year. I first heard it in November.

EDIT: Nevermind. I went right passed the post you were talking about.

 

[XpiderMX]

-Also, 8GB 64bit bus connected GDDR3 ram for maximum price efficiency.

64 bit bus? slower than Xbox 360?

 

[anexanhume]

That rumor's a bunch of lies. There aren't GDDR RAM chips large enough to reach 8GB even on 128-bit, and much less 64-bit bus width, and the rest sounds like pure fabrications and wishful thinking at best.

And bad wishes at that. A BR drive that doesn't play BR? 64 bit bus?

 

[XpiderMX]

And bad wishes at that. A BR drive that doesn't play BR? 64 bit bus?

The first Xbox could not play DVD movies.

 

[anexanhume]

The first Xbox could not play DVD movies.

It could. They just made you buy an accessory to do so.

http://faq.teamxbox.com/detail/1/Xbox-Console-FirstGeneration/#13

 

[Kaotik]

And bad wishes at that. A BR drive that doesn't play BR? 64 bit bus?

IIRC Wii U's drive is a BR-drive, but without "BR playing capabilities" which would raise its costs

 

[anexanhume]

IIRC Wii U's drive is a BR-drive, but without "BR playing capabilities" which would raise its costs

That makes sense for Ninty to not pay license fees. They aren't trying to be an all-encompassing entertainment device like the xbox 360 and next xbox will be. For someone, the next xbox could well be their first blu ray player.

 

[cteam]

What I think you GAF forumers got wrong is the discussion about the Xbox 3 GPU. When you claim its GPU is weaker than PS4 GPU, it´s based on old rumors that claimed the Xbox 3 was gonna get a 6000 series Radeon vs the latest rumors that claim the PS4 one is a 7000 series.

According to lherre, the are some Xbox dev kits that already have a 7000 series Radeon. And the final hardware could end up with a 8000 series Radeon. The russian "insider" seem to suggest the latest dev kits have TWO Radeon 8000. If the 360 dev kits are any indication, as they also had teo GPUs, this could mean the Xbox 3 GPU is omething hybrid more advanced than the GPUs which are currently available.

This is just speculation, but my point is the Xbox 3 is not gonna have a Radeon 6000 by any mean, as there are already dev kits with a more powerful GPU.

agree , funnyly the russian insider suggestion and leaked document (not 56 page)
suggesitng he seems right.

funny #2 is, we have so many leaked document on ms side, but none on SOny
we just beleiving insider on Sony side, but somehow
we more believe on sony will have 7970 with financial troubles on sony
vs targetting > 7xxx performance on xbox