Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

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It's just a rumour but it seems to be true. I don't know what's the term used by developers to define it but next Xbox is going to be Post-compatible, -or is it Forward-compatible?- because graphics will improve with time

http://xboxevolved.e-mpire.com/article/3rd_generation_Xbox/4902.html

Xbox Evolved has uncovered some interesting information that could change the way videogames are made on the Xbox 360 as early as next year.


Xbox Evolved has been known for posting some outlandish rumors in the past. After all back in early 2004 at the end of a rumor-smashing article, we published our own information about the next Xbox (later named Xbox 360 of course) having a hard drive as an option. GameSpy later confirmed that information in 2005, just a month before official details on the Xbox 360 were revealed. At the time it was hard to believe, even for me that the next Xbox wouldn’t require a hard drive like the original Xbox however, the sources were incredibly reliable, and at least one of the same sources have revealed some information on the third Xbox console due sometime between 2010-2012.

One of the most interesting features of the third Xbox besides being able to play all of your Xbox 360 titles, and transfer over your gamertag and gamerscore is forward-compatibility. Backwards-compatibility of course means that a game from the previous generation of systems works on the new systems. An example of this is PlayStation games working on PlayStation 2, or original Xbox games being playable on the Xbox 360 through emulation and software updates.

This is something completely different however. Forward-compatibility means that games made for the Xbox 360 are made even better thanks to the features and hardware of the next Xbox system. This isn’t a side effect of textures being cleaner and upscaled resolution, this is a new animal completely. Imagine playing Gears of War 3 on your Xbox 360 it looks and plays good right? Well imagine that the year after it comes out you go out to buy the next Xbox and it looks even better, it plays even better. Features in the new controller are utilized with the game, the graphics do not only look sharper, but the draw distance is better, the speed is better, framerate, and there are even new features, perhaps even levels via DLC for the game on the third-generation Xbox. GoW3 is of course an example of what this could mean, past the forward-compatibility information, Xbox Evolved has not been given any other information about the next generation of Xbox.

Our sources indicate that Microsoft is in a stage of “testing the waters” before they nail down the final specs of the new machine. Introducing these options early on to developers means that the games they make for the Xbox 360 will have no life on the next platform, and allow them to begin much earlier in figuring out how the next Xbox works.

There are two examples I can think of to better understand what this truly means. Those of you whom are old-school Nintendo fans may remember that if you bought the “Expansion Pak” for Nintendo 64 that it made the visuals much better and opened up far more modes and options in Rareware’ “Perfect Dark”. It could also be compared to playing the PC game “Crysis” on a mid-range setup, updating the videocard, and seeing a world of difference. We will have more on this rumor as it develops.
 
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I don't know. I can see resolution and higher forms of fsaa and anistropic filtering being added to future game releases. Perhaps even larger draw distances and an increase in textures used per level. But i don't see much more than that. We are already aproaching the limits of dvd storage so I can't see ultra high res textures being part of it.

Hmm perhaps some next gen xbox live features like 16 player parties ?
 
It's just a rumour but it seems to be true. I don't know what's the term used by developers to define it but next Xbox is going to be Post-compatible, -or is it Forward-compatible?- because graphics will improve with time

http://xboxevolved.e-mpire.com/article/3rd_generation_Xbox/4902.html

This is something completely different however. Forward-compatibility means that games made for the Xbox 360 are made even better thanks to the features and hardware of the next Xbox system. This isn’t a side effect of textures being cleaner and upscaled resolution, this is a new animal completely. Imagine playing Gears of War 3 on your Xbox 360 it looks and plays good right? Well imagine that the year after it comes out you go out to buy the next Xbox and it looks even better, it plays even better. Features in the new controller are utilized with the game, the graphics do not only look sharper, but the draw distance is better, the speed is better, framerate, and there are even new features, perhaps even levels via DLC for the game on the third-generation Xbox. GoW3 is of course an example of what this could mean, past the forward-compatibility information, Xbox Evolved has not been given any other information about the next generation of Xbox.

This is not called forward or post compatibility.. It's called bull***..
 
360 enhanced tha last xbox games too
remeber HL2, built with "emulation inside" to work better in the 360, or many games like halo that on the 360 have better resolution and antialiasing

it's nothing new
 
It's possible, but unless there's some incredible master plan underlying it, I certainly wouldn't see the value. We explored similar ideas in the PS4/Cell thread, and they didn't make any more sense there. The idea of having an improved gaming experience on your existing library is nice going from one console to the next, but it's very PC-esque. At the heart of it, it would beg the question on my end as to whether improved graphics alone would be a strong enough hook to sell a new-gen console on, if the library concurrent one to the other. Probably inexpensive for MS from the hardware/R&D perspective, and certainly could be nice for devs from a development/market perspective, but... well, it'd be a half-gen step in the console realm.

As I was writing the above it increased in plausibility/attractiveness. Just a rumor for now, but I do expect there will be some interesting (and probably disappointing from the enthusiast side) changes in strategy for both MS and Sony going this gen to next, whether this "unified library" concept is incorporated or not.
 
This is not called forward or post compatibility.. It's called bull***..
Long time no see.... Sorry, no, I don't know but for me it could be called semi-trustable rumour because they have a track record of rumours gotten right.

It sounds a bit PC-esque -I'm paraphrasing Carl B here- and, while consoles use PC technology (GPU) they are specialized machines as opposed to computers. Time will tell but I will try to to remember this thread when next gen consoles come out. :smile:

Cheers
 
It's possible, but unless there's some incredible master plan underlying it, I certainly wouldn't see the value. We explored similar ideas in the PS4/Cell thread, and they didn't make any more sense there. The idea of having an improved gaming experience on your existing library is nice going from one console to the next, but it's very PC-esque. At the heart of it, it would beg the question on my end as to whether improved graphics alone would be a strong enough hook to sell a new-gen console on, if the library concurrent one to the other. Probably inexpensive for MS from the hardware/R&D perspective, and certainly could be nice for devs from a development/market perspective, but... well, it'd be a half-gen step in the console realm.

As I was writing the above it increased in plausibility/attractiveness. Just a rumor for now, but I do expect there will be some interesting (and probably disappointing from the enthusiast side) changes in strategy for both MS and Sony going this gen to next, whether this "unified library" concept is incorporated or not.

I think the draw of it is really for xbox next buyers.

Lets say in 2010 gears of war 3 is coming out and so is xbox next. Now I doubt MS will make it exclusive for the xbox next. But they also want to give a reason for people to buy the xbox next. So they have it support 1080p native and hgher fsaa modes along with perhaps a download texture pack (3-4 gigs ) to help fill up that 2-4 gigs of system ram.

I don't think its ideal but it may be better for them than getting stuck with another pdz launch fiasco.
 
It's possible, but unless there's some incredible master plan underlying it, I certainly wouldn't see the value. We explored similar ideas in the PS4/Cell thread, and they didn't make any more sense there. The idea of having an improved gaming experience on your existing library is nice going from one console to the next, but it's very PC-esque. At the heart of it, it would beg the question on my end as to whether improved graphics alone would be a strong enough hook to sell a new-gen console on, if the library concurrent one to the other. Probably inexpensive for MS from the hardware/R&D perspective, and certainly could be nice for devs from a development/market perspective, but... well, it'd be a half-gen step in the console realm.

As I was writing the above it increased in plausibility/attractiveness. Just a rumor for now, but I do expect there will be some interesting (and probably disappointing from the enthusiast side) changes in strategy for both MS and Sony going this gen to next, whether this "unified library" concept is incorporated or not.


I'm assuming it would have the normal next gen graphics, and this sprucing up of past titles would just be some sort of side bonus, no?

About all it means to me is it seems they'd have to keep the technology very similar..aka no switching GPU vendors..
 
I think of something else, on top of better AA AF and framerate they could run sharpening filter after the scaling to make the 1080P experience better.
That would be pretty trivial to implement and as some Dave's (ATI) presentations show the result are quiet good (and that's starting from a DVD).
 
It's possible, but unless there's some incredible master plan underlying it, I certainly wouldn't see the value. We explored similar ideas in the PS4/Cell thread, and they didn't make any more sense there. The idea of having an improved gaming experience on your existing library is nice going from one console to the next, but it's very PC-esque. At the heart of it, it would beg the question on my end as to whether improved graphics alone would be a strong enough hook to sell a new-gen console on, if the library concurrent one to the other. Probably inexpensive for MS from the hardware/R&D perspective, and certainly could be nice for devs from a development/market perspective, but... well, it'd be a half-gen step in the console realm.

As I was writing the above it increased in plausibility/attractiveness. Just a rumor for now, but I do expect there will be some interesting (and probably disappointing from the enthusiast side) changes in strategy for both MS and Sony going this gen to next, whether this "unified library" concept is incorporated or not.

I think that if it does not cost too much to the developers of the current-generation titles that forward compatibility would be something to explore... for sure it would simplify backwards compatibility if developers knew what to expect earlier on as far as HW and OS/API changes are concerned.

One of the biggest mistakes SCE made during PS3's development when creating CELL and studying the PS3 HW platform was to isolate HW ans SW labs maintaining a kind of secrecy that did hurt them much more than it did help them gain any kind of competitive advantage.
 
All this forward compatibility is silly IMO, because many devs do all sorts of hardware tricks (which I cannot talk about) which are tied to the specific platform. Switch to a newer platform and these things break. If MS or Sony supplied a forward portable API in which you couldn't get low level access to hardware, and the entire game only used that API, then sure perhaps forward compatibility would work, but I'd bet the performance/compatibility trade off would be hard to swallow.
 
All this forward compatibility is silly IMO, because many devs do all sorts of hardware tricks (which I cannot talk about) which are tied to the specific platform. Switch to a newer platform and these things break. If MS or Sony supplied a forward portable API in which you couldn't get low level access to hardware, and the entire game only used that API, then sure perhaps forward compatibility would work, but I'd bet the performance/compatibility trade off would be hard to swallow.

I think this whole theory assumes hardware extension rather than replacement.
 
Guys, let's not mix terminology here. Forward compatibility means ability to run software designed for future iterations of hardware, not enhancing previous generation's software.

On topic of enhanced backward compatibility, I'm too curious how they are going to handle not so scalable tricks.

I think of something else, on top of better AA AF and framerate they could run sharpening filter after the scaling to make the 1080P experience better.
That would be pretty trivial to implement and as some Dave's (ATI) presentations show the result are quiet good (and that's starting from a DVD).

Have a link for that?
I don't expect sharpening to work for rasterized gfx because it would amplify jaggies.
PS3 does the opposite by the way, for PS2 games that is.
 
Backwards compatibility shouldn't be a problem next gen. PS3 is a fairly standard PC-like setup that is unlikely to have any advantages whatsoever over PS4, assuming it's also Cell based, and the only thing unique about 360 is the EDRAM. However, because it is on a separate chip connected by PCB traces, there aren't any obscenely fast operations on it like with PS2's EDRAM. I have a feeling that CPU instruction translation won't be a problem regardless of the architecture that MS chooses.
 
BC for PS4 is not going to be easy if Sony won't use a CELL based CPU, unless someone can come up with a magic parallel emulation bullet.
 
Backwards compatibility shouldn't be a problem next gen. PS3 is a fairly standard PC-like setup that is unlikely to have any advantages whatsoever over PS4, assuming it's also Cell based, and the only thing unique about 360 is the EDRAM. However, because it is on a separate chip connected by PCB traces, there aren't any obscenely fast operations on it like with PS2's EDRAM. I have a feeling that CPU instruction translation won't be a problem regardless of the architecture that MS chooses.

The ROPs are on the edram silicon not the gpu slicon. So the rops have a 256gb connection to the edram and the rest of the chip has a 32gb .

Though ms might go down the edram route again if the go with ati again. 32nm gpu with 30mb of edram would be enough for 1080p with 4x fsaa i believe and no tiling . Thats only 3 times what the 360 has and the 360 started at 90nm so i'd think its doble on 32nm.
 
The ROPs are on the edram silicon not the gpu slicon. So the rops have a 256gb connection to the edram and the rest of the chip has a 32gb .

How much data can be sent to the ROPs is relevant though, as well as the fact the ROPs aren't using compression whereas a typically GPU does.

Though ms might go down the edram route again if the go with ati again. 32nm gpu with 30mb of edram would be enough for 1080p with 4x fsaa i believe and no tiling . Thats only 3 times what the 360 has and the 360 started at 90nm so i'd think its doble on 32nm.

720p with 4xMSAA is already over 28MB (3 tiles) on Xenos. 1080p @ 4xMSAA is going to be nearly 64MB, and even larger with larger color formats. And then there is the consideration of the new rendering techniques being used that use a fair number of various buffers. Likewise a console design needs to consider bottlenecks: what is a problem in 2005 may be much less of an issue in 2011. Part of the issue is working smarter, not harder, and we have seen how desktop GPUs are doing higher resolutions/AA with less bandwidth and it appears that new designs may be moving toward quasi-tiled based approaches where more work is done through on-chip memory so the need for discreet eDRAM for ROPs--which new GPUs may not even have discreet ROPs by the time Xbox 3 ships--isn't certain at all. The fact companies would be looking at a 64MB eDRAM module to avoid tiling (although you throw on larger formats as well as more buffers and you will have to tile for 1080p/4xMSAA and will be getting the same complaints/issues) as well as the associated issues of, "How far will the eDRAM scale in regards to die area?" and it will take some very compelling points in regards to performance and cost to sway console makers. That said, I wonder if targetting 1080p is even a good idea outside of marketing and bulletpoint mongers... I would much rather take 720p, more work per pixel, and more AA/AF on a regular basis to improve IQ over games showing more visual strain at 1080p but they run that resolution for the bulletpoint.

And in an interesting twist, a console maker may be able to compete with significantly less silicon if the competition forces 1080p support. If Company A demands all games be in 1080p with some MSAA, Company B can "demand" 720p and get the game rendering exactly the same, just at a lower resolution, with a bit less hardware under the hood.
 
How much data can be sent to the ROPs is relevant though, as well as the fact the ROPs aren't using compression whereas a typically GPU does.

Still though can any compression out there make up for the 256 gig buss between the two.




As for 1080p. It doesn't have to be standard but it should be in many more games than we have today. Still though 30MB of edram would fit 720p 4x fsaa and 10bit HDR . Current gpus have large amounts of fast ram. next gen consoles will most likely be a 128bit bus again. Large bus sizes wont make it in because as the chips scale downwards you'll become pad limited. I also doubt we will see anyhting but a uma memory set up next gen. Which means they will need a very fast pool of ram some where for the gpu. no matter how much smarter they make the gpus.
 
Still though can any compression out there make up for the 256 gig buss between the two.

Do the math and you tell me ;)

Still though 30MB of edram would fit 720p 4x fsaa and 10bit HDR .

Yet what if you want 1080p @4xMSAA, A G-buffer and A-buffer, FP16, a deeper Z-buffer, and a host of render targets? Now you are back to many, many tiles and we already know what developers think of this approach.

Essentially with eDRAM you are dictating to one degree or another what resolution/features as well as rendering approach you take.

Current gpus have large amounts of fast ram.

They have large amounts of fast memory for a reason. The question where the demand for that bandwidth is being spent. Is 30MB of eDRAM to be stuck at 720p 4xMSAA (or 1080p 2xMSAA) and 32bit color and a huge PITA to deploy a number of emerging rendering techniques worth isolating fillrate bandwidth from the rest of the system?

How much is your fillrate cost going up over the next 4 years? How much everything else? What is your projected bottlenecks? GPUs already have a lot of overdraw ability, so is the silicon cost and associated limitations from a software perspective worth it?

next gen consoles will most likely be a 128bit bus again.

The PS3 isn't using a 128bit bus--it is using 2x128bit busses (XDR, GDDR3). The Xbox 360 has a 128bit bus to GDDR3 plus the daughter die bus. So neither console is simply using "a" 128bit bus. Further, while pad size reduction is much slower than process node reduction it does progress. Some of GPUs with 256bit buses to GDDR5 are relatively small as well as have robust bandwidth--enough bandwidth to push 1080p with MSAA as I noted above. Hence back to my point: is eDRAM a good tradeoff? Is fillrate going to be a bottleneck next generation OR is the cost of a 30MB eDRAM (270M transistors) going to be better spent on ~ 400GFLOPs+ worth of vector units? We already established 30MB of eDRAM is quite small, so you are now talking about a reduction in rendering techniques as well as a hefty percentage of rendering performance.

Technology doesn't progress on a linear path, neither do rendering costs. We already saw in the GPU arena how ATI came out with a 512bit bus (R600) but has transitioned back to 256bit busses with the emergence of GDDR5.

I also doubt we will see anyhting but a uma memory set up next gen.

It will be interesting to see how they do an UMA with the trend toward CPUs with integrated memory controllers. I wouldn't say the NUMA is dead just yet, only that the tradeoffs need to be justified elsewhere.

Which means they will need a very fast pool of ram some where for the gpu. no matter how much smarter they make the gpus.

If they go UMA, why shouldn't this be a large pool of GDDR5 or even XDR2? I believe Hynix has already touted 160GB/s on a 256bit bus via GDDR5. Qimonda announced volume production up to 4.5Gb/s GDDR5 (the Radeon HD4870 uses 3.6Gb/s modules; 115GB/s over a 256bit bus). If we are looking at a 2011 window or later there is always the potential for other memory technology to be deployed as well. But the point being, still, is that games like Crysis (which has a lot of fillrate demands) isn't being crippled by having less theoretical bandwidth than Xenos--i.e. fillrate isn't a primary bottleneck to achieving those level of graphics. Not to mention there is a strong arguement that the eDRAM is much about cost and giving full fillrate to the 8ROPs than the technical bandwidth which should be balanced out by the 32GB/s bus between the GPU and daughter die. The 256GB/s of bandwidth on the daughter die isn't the same thing as having 256GB/s of graphics bandwidth.

Anyhow, memory management and design is going to be a major hurdle next gen due to the growing needs of multi-core processors and evolving GPU designs. From this perspective the idea of a simple design like Larrabee (or whatever NV/AMD pitch in the same mold) may be where the simplification comes and not necessarily in eDRAM.
 
Whether we talk about the next-gen Xbox or PS4, I think it would be good to have external main memory and/or graphics bandwidth in the hundreds of GB/sec, and, embedded memory bandwidth of several TB/sec.

What makes me bold enough to say that?

1. The announcement that Rambus is developing 1 TB/sec main memory for the 2010 timeframe.

2. Nvidia Tony Tamasi's statement in 2004 that in the future, highend 3D games could require 3 TB/sec bandwidth.
 
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