Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

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From a timing standpoint, I think the recent Halo 3 recon announcement puts a likely firmer date on the Xbox 3.

Some time ago rumors had stated MS had a alternating years Gears/Halo tentpole holiday title strategy. As such, it would now look like this:

06 Gears
07 Halo 3
08 Gears 2
09 Halo 3: Recon
10 Gears 3

Which means more than likely imo the current plan is Xbox 3 in fall 2011, launching with Halo 4 currently under dev by the MS Halo team.

I agree, and, that's the way things are shaping up.
 
Regarding Larrabee, at the very least (even if it's not THAT great) it has forced, is forcing and will continue to force Nvidia/AMD to keep on their toes, to come up with better next-gen & next-next-gen GPUs & refreshes inbetween generations.
 
2011 will put the 360 into its 6th year. I was thinking more like 2010 for the new system

I don't expect the next-gen Xbox until fall 2011.

Microsoft would like Xbox 360 to last upto 7 years on its own before the next one, which would put it at fall 2012, but I think they'll get 6 years out of 360 before they release the new one, so 2011.

Fall 2010 is a little too soon.
 
I don't expect the next-gen Xbox until fall 2011.

Microsoft would like Xbox 360 to last upto 7 years on its own before the next one, which would put it at fall 2012, but I think they'll get 6 years out of 360 before they release the new one, so 2011.

Fall 2010 is a little too soon.

I'm not so sure. I think the 360 will look dated by then. I believe its in their best intrest to get the jump on Sony . Release in 2010 with a good dx11 platform. Perhaps have gears 3 as a launch title. They should be able to get away with a $500 price point too. It would graphicly blow the ps3 and xbox out of the water and will really force sony to react. Sony couldn't wait till 2012 to put out a new system and the ps3 will only be at 4 years into its life by that point.
 
Sales for the current are still growing. 2008 is seeing the first console hit $199... if history is any measure 2010 would be early for new consoles.
 
I wonder if the news of AMD going fab-less could have an incidence on manufacturers choices in regard to the cpu.
What Do you guys think? :)
 
I'm not so sure. I think the 360 will look dated by then. I believe its in their best intrest to get the jump on Sony . Release in 2010 with a good dx11 platform. Perhaps have gears 3 as a launch title. They should be able to get away with a $500 price point too. It would graphicly blow the ps3 and xbox out of the water and will really force sony to react. Sony couldn't wait till 2012 to put out a new system and the ps3 will only be at 4 years into its life by that point.

The current platforms are still growing and we haven't even completely transitioned from the last generation yet. Prices still need time to drop and platform holders and game publishers need time to recoup their investments.
 
I wonder if the news of AMD going fab-less could have an incidence on manufacturers choices in regard to the cpu.
What Do you guys think? :)

I don't see it impacting any decision making process positively or negatively, unless it becomes harder for AMD to get capacity through Foundry Company. But I doubt that would happen.
 
I'm not so sure. I think the 360 will look dated by then. I believe its in their best intrest to get the jump on Sony . Release in 2010 with a good dx11 platform. Perhaps have gears 3 as a launch title. They should be able to get away with a $500 price point too. It would graphicly blow the ps3 and xbox out of the water and will really force sony to react. Sony couldn't wait till 2012 to put out a new system and the ps3 will only be at 4 years into its life by that point.



One could argue that 360 looks dated now, and will look even more dated in 2009. That could be true in alot of people's minds. It does not mean the next Xbox will come out in 2009 or even 2010. Microsoft will release the next system when the time is right for them, when they feel the market is ready for it. If that's late 2010, then so be it. If it's late 2011 or even 2012, that's how it'll be. I don't think that anyone will launch a console for more than $399 though. We've seen the market reject $499/$599 PS3, there's no reason to believe they'd buy a $499 Xbox3. Sony tested the waters there and they were cold. I'm sure we've seen the last of $500-$600 consoles for a long time. I'd expect the next Xbox to blow PS3 out of the water graphically, and there's no reason that can't happen with SKU's priced something like $299 / $349 / $399.

Everything we read today indicates Sony, Microsoft, Nintendo will launch their next generation sometime between 2011 and 2012.
 
I'm not so sure. I think the 360 will look dated by then. I believe its in their best intrest to get the jump on Sony . Release in 2010 with a good dx11 platform. Perhaps have gears 3 as a launch title. They should be able to get away with a $500 price point too. It would graphicly blow the ps3 and xbox out of the water and will really force sony to react. Sony couldn't wait till 2012 to put out a new system and the ps3 will only be at 4 years into its life by that point.

Why are you assuming that Microsoft wants to beat Sony, and not Nintendo? Sony and MS are very clearly fighting for second place this generation, do we really think that they've really considered Nintendo do be 'doing their own thing' and want no part of the Wii pie?
 
Why are you assuming that Microsoft wants to beat Sony, and not Nintendo? Sony and MS are very clearly fighting for second place this generation, do we really think that they've really considered Nintendo do be 'doing their own thing' and want no part of the Wii pie?

I think they just want to build a brand that can make them money and allow them to introduce new brands.

I don't think they really care about nintendo. I still don't know why people are going to buy a wii hd over a wii. If they only increase the graphics doesn't that fly in the face of what made the wii so unique.
 
I think they just want to build a brand that can make them money and allow them to introduce new brands.

I don't think they really care about nintendo. I still don't know why people are going to buy a wii hd over a wii. If they only increase the graphics doesn't that fly in the face of what made the wii so unique.

Right, and I think both Sony and MS notice that. They don't know how the Wii is going to sell an HD console either, but they'd love to know. Which is why they're gonna be watching the market leader more than each other. This generation Nintendo distanced itself by claiming it wasn't going to try and compete with Sony and MS, next gen Sony and MS are going to try and bring the competition to them. Why wouldn't they? They'd love to get a piece of the Wii's userbase.
 
Right, and I think both Sony and MS notice that. They don't know how the Wii is going to sell an HD console either, but they'd love to know. Which is why they're gonna be watching the market leader more than each other. This generation Nintendo distanced itself by claiming it wasn't going to try and compete with Sony and MS, next gen Sony and MS are going to try and bring the competition to them. Why wouldn't they? They'd love to get a piece of the Wii's userbase.

They can get a portion of the wii's userbase by targeting what they want after the wii. Which is most likely deeper gameplay. If the wii is going high def then they should make the next leap over what the wii hd will do. There is a large enough market out there for what ms and sony are selling and there will be more and more buyers who want a better experiance in story telling and graphics.

The wii is just a fad and I don't see nintendo repeating it because honestly all the quirky things like wii fit and wii music are being done this gen.
 
They can get a portion of the wii's userbase by targeting what they want after the wii. Which is most likely deeper gameplay. If the wii is going high def then they should make the next leap over what the wii hd will do. There is a large enough market out there for what ms and sony are selling and there will be more and more buyers who want a better experiance in story telling and graphics.

The wii is just a fad and I don't see nintendo repeating it because honestly all the quirky things like wii fit and wii music are being done this gen.

Maybe you're right. I'll withhold judgment until I see how Wii Music does, because I think that if that title does well it's because people have bought into Nintendo's 'buy this title because it's fun. you like fun, right?' marketing scheme, which if true means Nintendo can sell anything.
 
Maybe you're right. I'll withhold judgment until I see how Wii Music does, because I think that if that title does well it's because people have bought into Nintendo's 'buy this title because it's fun. you like fun, right?' marketing scheme, which if true means Nintendo can sell anything.

They may be able to sell anything once , but how about twice or three times. You might be able to get them to buy wii fit and a smaller portion to buy wii fit 2 , but how about wii fit 3.

Thats my questionin all this.
 
They may be able to sell anything once , but how about twice or three times. You might be able to get them to buy wii fit and a smaller portion to buy wii fit 2 , but how about wii fit 3.

Thats my questionin all this.

Well, yeah, but the idea is that maybe Nintendo has discovered how to create a demand for these games where there was none before, or otherwise just find this demand that no one knew existed. So maybe it's not Wii Fit 2, but rather Wii Cobbling, because Miyamoto thinks making shoes is fun, and because it's marketed as fun, it becomes fun.
 
Well, yeah, but the idea is that maybe Nintendo has discovered how to create a demand for these games where there was none before, or otherwise just find this demand that no one knew existed. So maybe it's not Wii Fit 2, but rather Wii Cobbling, because Miyamoto thinks making shoes is fun, and because it's marketed as fun, it becomes fun.

well. I dunno. If you look at all these games there already exist other verisons of the game. its just the tool to play them has changed.

Wii sports is just mini sports games.

Wii fit is just a bunch of balance games based of other games. Like marble madness and track and field from the old nes.

Wii music i just a take off on samba di amigo and guitar hero type games with simpler controlls.
 
Hmm, this kinda popped out of nowhere, but:

4/8GB NAND in the first 1/2 years, further progression later on. HDDs are all optional, maybe included in top-end SKU.

Besides the games of course, web-centric apps could be the next hit (media centres will be de facto, and rather outdated to market as a selling point). Using the iPhone model could actually get the ecosystem somewhere, even for MS.
 
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