Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[bgassassin]

The Cell2 does already exist and has already shipped in real life products, years ago.
I am talking about the Cell which has the vastly superior double precision performance, which is used in one of the top 5 supercomputers that is operational today in this world.

Unless things changed, which I don't expect, PS4 won't have a Cell or any IBM made processor.

 

[function]

Do you want big chips in your next gen console? The problem is cost. The answer is simple. Buy them from AMD!

We can worry about selling out-of-spec parts as desktop, OEM, laptop or salvage parts. We'll do all the design and layout. We'll sort out the thermal issues and advise you on cooling. We'll even help with the southbridge and all the other ... stuff and things. And thanks to your contract we guarantee to supply you in preference to our other partners if there are yield issues. Say goodbye to the first year of pain - affordable big chips on an established process from day one!*

*Terms and conditions apply. You may have to stop making the console after 4 years and release an upgraded version. If so, please try to see this as an opportunity.

 

[steviep]

Actually we already have a proof why next gen consoles would be very powerful with 7970/680 grapchical capabilities : Unreal Engine 4. no one should fool himself thinking that Directx11 unreal engine 4 features has been designed as PC exclusives. They have been designed to be implemented efficiently into next gen consoles.

Epic isn't going to get what they (or you) want. a 7970 is a hefty proposition to ask for, even if you're thinking of a mobile variant (binned).

 

[Rangers]

I get the distinct impression that MS/Sony are looking to the past and pretty much throwing up their hands -- the Wii spanked them in sales (ignore the horrible 3rd party experience and the quickly tanking Wii), their platforms lost a lot of money

I am pretty sure the 360 is already profitable life to date and will rack up quite a few more profits in the coming years as it winds down. Imagine that, and here we are to believe decent hardware can never turn a profit.

Acert, you're spinning a nice tale, but I must ask why this collusion and weaksauce profitable hardware never occured for 7 prior generations?

I'll tell you why, because of competition. Sure in a vacuum, every console hardware would be profitable. When there are 3 competitors though (2 high end), they push each other, and nothing about that has changed.

It still amuses me the zest which some people are pursuing this low power angle. It really seems like a lot of you are actively rooting for this to happen, which is weird.

 

[TheD]

Epic isn't going to get what they (or you) want. a 7970 is a hefty proposition to ask for, even if you're thinking of a mobile variant (binned).

Something based on the 7970M would fit nicely into a console.

It is approx the same size as the Xenos and RSX at launch and has a TDP of only 65W.

 

[steviep]

I am pretty sure the 360 is already profitable life to date and will rack up quite a few more profits in the coming years as it winds down. Imagine that, and here we are to believe decent hardware can never turn a profit.

Acert, you're spinning a nice tale, but I must ask why this collusion and weaksauce profitable hardware never occured for 7 prior generations?

I'll tell you why, because of competition. Sure in a vacuum, every console hardware would be profitable. When there are 3 competitors though (2 high end), they push each other, and nothing about that has changed.

It still amuses me the zest which some people are pursuing this low power angle. It really seems like a lot of you are actively rooting for this to happen, which is weird.

Did you consider what bkillian wrote just above? Would he be in a position to know?

Something based on the 7970M would fit nicely into a console.

It is approx the same size as the Xenos and RSX at launch and has a TDP of only 65W.

There is a reason, however, that the high end "M" variants of GPUs are an extremely expensive venture to pursue for laptop makers and, conversely, any prospective console makers.

 

[3dcgi]

Do you want big chips in your next gen console? The problem is cost. The answer is simple. Buy them from AMD!

We can worry about selling out-of-spec parts as desktop, OEM, laptop or salvage parts. We'll do all the design and layout. We'll sort out the thermal issues and advise you on cooling. We'll even help with the southbridge and all the other ... stuff and things. And thanks to your contract we guarantee to supply you in preference to our other partners if there are yield issues. Say goodbye to the first year of pain - affordable big chips on an established process from day one!*

*Terms and conditions apply. You may have to stop making the console after 4 years and release an upgraded version. If so, please try to see this as an opportunity.

From a consumer perspective that * clause would be an awesome addition to a contract.

 

[McHuj]

There is a reason, however, that the high end "M" variants of GPUs are an extremely expensive venture to pursue for laptop makers and, conversely, any prospective console makers.

It expensive because it's a tiny market so they bin existing GPU's for favorable power/performance. There isn't enough return/market to justify making a custom high performance laptop chip. A console is a whole another matter, it's a 75+ million part market.

 

[function]

From a consumer perspective that * clause would be an awesome addition to a contract.

Yeah, I think the way people buy phones (and the way their role is expanding) might start to change the way people look other tech that they spend a lot on and that ages rapidly. If you could sell a console attached to a service like PSN or Live, and use contracts and an upgrade path to both entice and hold consumers it could be a win for both parties (depending on customer preferences of course).

If a console vendor did this, it might not need to worry so much about manufacturing costs over a long lifespan (6+ years) and the pressure to start the generation with horribly unprofitable machines could be reduced. You might not end up with 7 year old consoles "holding everything back" either.

It will be interesting to see if Sony buy their chips from AMD, or license IP and build their own custom processors in their fab(s) of choice.

 

[tunafish]

It expensive because it's a tiny market so they bin existing GPU's for favorable power/performance. There isn't enough return/market to justify making a custom high performance laptop chip. A console is a whole another matter, it's a 75+ million part market.

It goes the other way too. The laptop chip can be as good as it is at only 65W because they make 10 times the chips for desktop 7800 series, and can pick the best 10% to put into laptops. Once you don't have the huge second market to push the less-than-optimal tdp chips into, you have to design so that nearly all of your chips fit the desired power envelope.

 

[Acert93]

It goes the other way too. The laptop chip can be as good as it is at only 65W because they make 10 times the chips for desktop 7800 series, and can pick the best 10% to put into laptops. Once you don't have the huge second market to push the less-than-optimal tdp chips into, you have to design so that nearly all of your chips fit the desired power envelope.

Or you are taking the bottom tier of the fully functional Pitcairn chips as the desktop Pitcairn (7870) is a 1GHz model and the 7970M is a 850MHz model (i.e. chips that are fully functional but don't pass muster at 1GHz but work fine at 850MHz). From that view the 7970 is really no different from Xenos which has no large blocks of disabled units like the 7870/7970M and unlike the 7850 (all of which I would assume have some more fine grained redundancies). I guess you could argue that the 7970M may have to function at a lower voltage but it seems a lot of people have done this with no issue on the 7870 and the drop from 1GHz to 850MHz is something I pointed out recently that these GPUs seem to suck more power with frequency than size.

Anyways Pitcairn probably has a better fine grained redundancy design than Xenos and RSX and is in total space smaller than both. If RSX/Xenos could be mass produced without issue for the PS3/360 I don't see why a smaller chip is generating more angst.

 

[DoctorFouad]

Anyways Pitcairn probably has a better fine grained redundancy design than Xenos and RSX and is in total space smaller than both. If RSX/Xenos could be mass produced without issue for the PS3/360 I don't see why a smaller chip is generating more angst.

Honestly I dont understand why a lot of forumers in this thread seem pessimistic and insist on imaginary exagerated technical difficulty issues for why a december 2011 GPU level of performance cant be mass produced at a relatively reasonable cost for consoles releasing in november 2013 (2 years gap)....it is really beyond my understanding.... I am pretty sure sony and microsoft would prove them wrong.

 

[Acert93]

It is simple: You have people inside the industry leaking lower-spec'd "next gen console hardware specs" to major news outlets like IGN and individuals from companies argueing why high-end won't work and some middleware developers leaking they are fighting for better specs, etc. It is a constellation of leaks, rumors, tidbits, etc all pointing that direction.

 

[DoctorFouad]

It is simple: You have people inside the industry leaking lower-spec'd "next gen console hardware specs" to major news outlets like IGN and individuals from companies argueing why high-end won't work and some middleware developers leaking they are fighting for better specs, etc. It is a constellation of leaks, rumors, tidbits, etc all pointing that direction.

But why should we believe these leaks and rumors ? isnt it reasonable to assume that it is in the interest of each company, sony or microsoft, to trick the other into believing they are designing a low spec machine so they can surprise them afterwards not giving them enough time to react or adjust their plans ?

isnt it better in terms of marketing to lower consumers expectations and than just positively suprise them with the final product ?

isnt it logical for Epic and other developers to ask always more from the hardware producers regardless of the expected performance of the hardware ?

 

[bgassassin]

It is simple: You have people inside the industry leaking lower-spec'd "next gen console hardware specs" to major news outlets like IGN and individuals from companies argueing why high-end won't work and some middleware developers leaking they are fighting for better specs, etc. It is a constellation of leaks, rumors, tidbits, etc all pointing that direction.

I've felt for awhile that MS has been "trolling" with the rumors on Xbox 3. All signs I've seen so far point to it being the most powerful of the three next-gen consoles.

 

[TheChefO]

I am pretty sure the 360 is already profitable life to date and will rack up quite a few more profits in the coming years as it winds down. Imagine that, and here we are to believe decent hardware can never turn a profit.

FYI, Xbox Live has made roughly $7.25Billion since 2005.

I have no idea how much MS has made/lost on hardware or made/lost on game revenues and 3rd party platform fees or made/lost on accessories, but the above figure for xbl I'd say paints a rather profitable picture for MS ... at the moment.

yearly revenue	total xbl users	year	quarter reported
2,000,000,000	40,000,000est	2012	e3
1,750,000,000	35,000,000	2011	e3
1,250,000,000	25,000,000	2010	e3
1,000,000,000	20,000,000	2009	e3
600,000,000	12,000,000	2008	e3
350,000,000	7,000,000	2007	e3
200,000,000	4,000,000	2006	q4
100,000,000	2,000,000	2005

With such additional revenue streams, you'd think MS wouldn't have any difficulty in putting in a chipset with the same budget as xb360 ...

Something like a pitcairn with at least 2gb gddr ram and a hexcore xcpu would suffice...

Acert, you're spinning a nice tale, but I must ask why this collusion and weaksauce profitable hardware never occured for 7 prior generations?

I'll tell you why, because of competition. Sure in a vacuum, every console hardware would be profitable. When there are 3 competitors though (2 high end), they push each other, and nothing about that has changed.

It still amuses me the zest which some people are pursuing this low power angle. It really seems like a lot of you are actively rooting for this to happen, which is weird.

I don't want to speak for Acert, but I think you might be missing some sarcasm in his posts... see my new sig for reference.

He seems to be fully on the side of at least Pitcairn level GPU performance for nextgen boxes which I think most reasonable people would agree is expected, and suitable.

 

[Acert93]

I've felt for awhile that MS has been "trolling" with the rumors on Xbox 3. All signs I've seen so far point to it being the most powerful of the three next-gen consoles.

The one eyed man is king in the valley of the blind.

Or

Are you saying my signature is wrong?--And I have never wanted to be more wrong!

 

[Acert93]

I don't want to speak for Acert, but I think you might be missing some sarcasm in his posts... see my new sig for reference.

He seems to be fully on the side of at least Pitcairn level GPU performance for nextgen boxes which I think most reasonable people would agree is expected, and suitable.

Yes, and the other post was itemizing why people who are taking a lower-bound position are not just perpetuating a single rumor but are reflecting a fairly strong current of rumors (regardless of how much truth they may or may not have or if I agree with such).

 

[bgassassin]

The one eyed man is king in the valley of the blind.

Or

Are you saying my signature is wrong?--And I have never wanted to be more wrong!

I think MS has learned their lesson this time around. Seems that for Xbox 3 your sig is wrong.

 

[Proelite]

Bgassassin trolling hardcore.