Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[Acert93]

n fact, in almost all aspects the 7970M is the match of the full desktop version: there are 20 compute units offering 1280 stream processors in all, 80 texture units, 32 ROPs and 2GB of dedicated GDDR5 RAM. Indeed, the only difference amounts to the speed of the GPU - the 7870 operates at 1GHz while the mobile version is downclocked to a "mere" 850MHz. However, memory clockspeed and bandwidth are identical at 1.2GHz, or 4.4GHz effective. ...

But why might the 7970M's design have a bearing on the upcoming generation? Simply put, the power efficiency of the graphics core in tandem with its discrete physical size, form two crucial factors that are sure to attract the attention of both Microsoft and Sony's R&D departments. And if the rumours are true, both have tasked AMD with designing the graphics chips for their next consoles, making the capabilities of the 7970M even more intriguing.

The Pitcairn core is fairly small, occupying 212mm2 of area. Compare that with the 240mm2 of the RSX in the launch version of the PlayStation 3 and the 180mm2 of the Xbox 360's original 90nm Xenos GPU and we have a ballpark match. Of more interest is power consumption: at full tilt, the 7970M sucks up around 65 watts of power. That's not going to be especially good news for a laptop running on battery power alone, but considering that the launch versions of the Xbox 360 and PS3 both consumed around 200W in total, again we see an eminently suitable match.

So the 7970M is a Pitcairn core at 850Mhz (instead of 1GHz) and the power draw drops from ~ 130W-150W down to 65W.

I get the distinct impression that MS/Sony are looking to the past and pretty much throwing up their hands -- the Wii spanked them in sales (ignore the horrible 3rd party experience and the quickly tanking Wii), their platforms lost a lot of money (ignore the PS3 was supposedly a loss leader for the supposedly very profitable BluRay, a ton of expensive internal development that did not produce good sales; MS fubaring the RRoD) and the rumblings are more designing a console in response to last generation issues instead of forward looking ones -- it seems laughable, laughable I tell you, that early 2012 technology that is under the 2005 budgets for the consoles cannot fit into a next gen box.

Don't let a MS/Sony rep tell you that it isn't technically possible to fit a mobile variant of a Pitcairn into the next gen consoles on budgets (time, heating, power, noise). It is all part of the narrative, not the actual limitations.

I foresee (ahem) at least one of the vendors painting a fairly public picture about the expanding TDP of PC parts, huge losses on past gen consoles, the new business model Nintendo showed (read: stuck to the ol' model while MS/Sony went thermal nuclear), that many will choose to uncritically pass along. I am calling it now.

 

[antwan]

I believe the PS4 will have a Cell2 like processor.
Looking at some PS3 exclusive titles, and the fact that the RSX is supposedly the most inferior GPU ever in a console.. means the Cell is probably one of the most powerful CPU's ever conceived. I am replaying U3 on crushing, and it's so amazing to see what the Cell is capable of. It just would be dumb to flush all that down the toilet.

It's true they initially lost a lot of money, but as a gamer I got games that, on a technical level, would not be possible otherwise.
So a cell2 is a must, imo. Imagine how GT6 or U4 would look?

 

[McHuj]

So the 7970M is a Pitcairn core at 850Mhz (instead of 1GHz) and the power draw drops from ~ 130W-150W down to 65W.

I think there's more room to go as well. If I'm not mistaken, this is simply a down clocked 7870 that's made on TSMC's 28HP process. Lowering the clock requirements further would maybe allow use of a HPL or LP process that can give even better power and size numbers (at the expense of max clock). It wouldn't surprise me to a see a 1280 shader core GPU die clocked at 750 MHz com in at around 50W, it would still be good enough for close to 2Tflops of raw compute power.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I believe the PS4 will have a Cell2 like processor.

Designed and built by who?

 

[TheChefO]

...it seems laughable, laughable I tell you, that early 2012 technology that is under the 2005 budgets for the consoles cannot fit into a next gen box.

Don't let MS/Sony tell you Pitcairn won't fit next gen console budgets. It is all part of the narrative, not the actual limitations.

Pardon the large text, but thank you sir for my new signature quote.

My prediction for nextgen console spec: their new offerings will likely be based on a sub-par trinity-level apu spec which diverts would-be customers into apathetic former gamers...

It's a collusion scam by MS and Sony to make as much profit as possible by abusing their assumed dominant role in the console biz. The reality of the situation though is that they are both digging their own graves and taking the console biz down with them.

Of course, the decrease in sales will be pinned on, "well whaddya expect, IOS and Android are taking away customers everywhere".



Pitcairn proves that it can fit quite comfortably within console spec and I predict this console spec would produce far superior results on screen and at the register...

 

[Acert93]

I think there's more room to go as well. If I'm not mistaken, this is simply a down clocked 7870 that's made on TSMC's 28HP process. Lowering the clock requirements further would maybe allow use of a HPL or LP process that can give even better power and size numbers (at the expense of max clock). It wouldn't surprise me to a see a 1280 shader core GPU die clocked at 750 MHz com in at around 50W, it would still be good enough for close to 2Tflops of raw compute power.

But that isn't the narrative!

No, these modern day PC-GPU monsters are hotter (some GPUs over 90C degrees), use a lot more power (over 300W for the GPU alone), they are large (over 500mm^2), and very expensive ($550+ just for the GPU!). These are low volume boutique components and why PC gaming is dieing. We (MS/Sony) chased this rabbit trail to our almost certain doom by reaching to the heavens (apex of PC gaming, and beyond!). Things are even worse now in this niche industry. It is impossible I tell you, i-m-p-o-s-s-i-b-l-e, to even consider a Pitcairn class chip in these itty bitty boxes. Anyways, consumers cannot even tell the difference.

Now please go enjoy your 6670HD GPU with 2GB of DDR3--cutting edge baby for 2013-2020! Oh, at $299, see, we are benevolent, now please sign the $99 contract with 3 years $15/mo payment plan suckers!

Ps-I should dig up my post from waaay back in 2006 about how a certain companies snow balling of non-core gaming experience components that inflated the platforms cost would be extremely detrimental to long term competition. And it sounds like we have safely arrived at this destination! If MS had not RRoD on top of that (basically a couple errors that cost billions but are neither here or there for whether we should have a total of 400-500mm^2 of CPU/GPU floorspace) the competitive direction of the platforms would be quite different.

 

[pjbliverpool]

I believe the PS4 will have a Cell2 like processor.
Looking at some PS3 exclusive titles, and the fact that the RSX is supposedly the most inferior GPU ever in a console..

RSX is no-where near that bad. It's still a pretty decent GPU which just has a handful of glaring weaknesses compared with Xenos, mostly just the lack of vertex shading capability due to it lacking unified shaders. In terms of both pixel shading and texturing capability I'd bet RSX is actually faster than Xenos.

means the Cell is probably one of the most powerful CPU's ever conceived.

It depends how you define 'CPU'. If your looking at something that can handle general purpose non vectorised code then its' probably one of the least powerful for it's day. For vectorised code though then yes it probably is one of the most powerful CPU's ever created for it's day. It's been exceeded by regular off the shelf CPU's today of course, even in floating point capability.

So a cell2 is a must

Cell 2 doesn't exist and you're not going to see it in a console. IMO, that's a good thing as Sony are better focussing on a big GPU with e regular CPU than a massive CPU and compartitively weaker GPU like they did with PS3. But there's a whole other thread dedicated to that

 

[Acert93]

Pardon the large text, but thank you sir for my new signature quote.

So is this akin to being posterized in the NBA?

 

[tunafish]

I believe the PS4 will have a Cell2 like processor.

As I understand it, IBM hasn't released anything related to the design of cell since 2007. The people who designed it have moved on to other projects. There simply isn't a Cell 2, no matter how much Sony would want one. (They wouldn't. It's much saner to do the GPU work on the GPU and the CPU work on the CPU.)

My prediction for nextgen console spec:
It's a collusion scam by MS and Sony to make as much profit as possible by abusing their assumed dominant role in the console biz. The reality of the situation though is that they are both digging their own graves and taking the console biz down with them.

The rumored Valve entry to the gaming set top box market (purely on the software side) is a huge wildcard. If I understand it correctly, Valve wants to build a software platform that any hw maker can use to make a box from off-the-shelf components that runs Steam, and only Steam, with ui suitable for remotes and controllers.

The prospect of having to compete with streamlined commodity pc's in the livingroom should make the console makers a bit wary. Just how long would it take until "Acer console mk3" would be faster than the trinity-based cheapo consoles?

 

[Xenus]

Except the valve and Apple console rumors are just stupid. Why would they want to enter a cutthroat market with razor thin margins with limited to no additional benefit to them?

 

[TheChefO]

Except the valve and Apple console rumors are just stupid. Why would they want to enter a cutthroat market with razor thin margins with limited to no additional benefit to them?

Valve would only provide the spec, not manufacture it.

The risk is low and potential reward is very high...

Why would PC manufacturers want in? What choice do they have with desktop PC sales declining?

A Valve spec PC based console (which could also dual boot into a mac/PC) would be quite compelling in the face of very weak (assumed) ps4/xb720 spec...

As far as Apple is concerned, I'm sure they wouldn't mind jumping into the (new highly profitable from day one on every item sold) console biz while also promoting their IOS ecosystem and bringing further potential revenue from search, and display ads, as well as itunes sales ...

That's the thing, as soon as consoles turn profitable from day one, the barrier to entry becomes nil.

_____

So the nextgen console spec predictions change drastically if one goes inexpensive ($100 retail apu) and the other follows suit, that leaves the playing field wide open for competitors all producing nextgen console tech based on cheap apu's.

... or for someone brave enough to position themselves as the top dog in a weak litter and carve themselves a piece of the pie to build on in the future. If memory serves, this is EXACTLY what MS did to break into the console biz in the firstplace.

It wouldn't be difficult to best a trinity apu by Apple or Valve and take the premium market away from Sony/MS.

My prediction: if Sony/MS go trinity-class performance, a competitor will seize the opportunity and offer a Pitcairn based console clocked in the 700-800MHz range and offer to sell it for a break even price, and make profit on non-hardware.

 

[Xenus]

The barrier for entry is never nil. there are R&D costs always. I think Valve is more benifitted then apple in this case but I still think they'd much rather try and piggy back on Sony or Microsoft rather then try and create their own,

I doubt the consoles are ever going to be highly profitable day one on every item sold not while their is still competition. Which means I don't see apple even going there. Why would they when they have their iPads and iPhones which make them boatloads of cash people are already saying is causing trouble for mobile gaming and possibly in the future console gaming? There is no benefit in it. It's like the LCD business except for Nintendo's 1 off success with the Wii which hasn't been proven it can be duplicated margins are razor thin for everyone.

 

[Blazkowicz]

RSX is no-where near that bad. It's still a pretty decent GPU which just has a handful of glaring weaknesses compared with Xenos, mostly just the lack of vertex shading capability due to it lacking unified shaders. In terms of both pixel shading and texturing capability I'd bet RSX is actually faster than Xenos.

it has slow dynamic branching too.
but I agree it's not that bad, and the geforce 6/7 were small and power efficient in general.

 

[tunafish]

I think Valve is more benifitted then apple in this case but I still think they'd much rather try and piggy back on Sony or Microsoft rather then try and create their own

MS is essentially a direct competitor to Valve now, and is actively attacking them with Windows Store. I really don't see them letting Steam on their platforms any time soon, and Valve really wants to expand out of the PC.

 

[antwan]

The Cell2 does already exist and has already shipped in real life products, years ago.
I am talking about the Cell which has the vastly superior double precision performance, which is used in one of the top 5 supercomputers that is operational today in this world.

 

[DoctorFouad]

Won't happen.... Pure and simple...

we will see ! I bet most of the non sense rumors of weak next gen consoles are encouraged systematically by microsoft and sony to fool each other. even the release dates are tightly kept secret. Hell, the obsolete WiiU hardware is still kept secret by Nintendo even though we are only 6 months away from release.

Just imagine the impact on the market if sony or microsoft achieve their surprise plan masterfully, releasing 1 year ahead of one console and with very powerful hardware.

Actually we already have a proof why next gen consoles would be very powerful with 7970/680 grapchical capabilities : Unreal Engine 4. no one should fool himself thinking that Directx11 unreal engine 4 features has been designed as PC exclusives. They have been designed to be implemented efficiently into next gen consoles.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

The Cell2 does already exist and has already shipped in real life products, years ago.
I am talking about the Cell which has the vastly superior double precision performance, which is used in one of the top 5 supercomputers that is operational today in this world.

That'll bring nothing of value to the console space where double precision isn't important. May as well just use the existing Cell, which is a pain to code for and can't handle some required workloads anything like as well as a more usual CPU.

 

[MrFox]

That wasn't really the cell2, it was IBM's 65nm shrink which improved the design to fit their supercomputing needs (DP), while Sony's different shrink was simply to save on cost and power, getting exactly the same performance. I don't think there was any difference between the two except the DP part.

IBM did have a prototype cell2 with 32x SPE, so their experience with the first one certainly must have been a success, after all they took all the top spots for highest performance per watt for their supercomputers... they dropped development of the 32x version because of yield issues, which seems to be a pervasive problem with the cell. Their A2 is now replacing the cell in the same area of application, and on the surface it seems to have most of the advantages of the cell, with less inconveniences (real cache instead of local store). But if I understand correctly (I never do), it's still supposed to be programmed with a job-scheduler in mind to get great performance, which is what third party devs seem to hate. But that's where we're going. There won't be any chips with very few cores anymore if efficiency is important, and the future is many many cores, I don't see any way around it. The PS3's job-scheduler was a good design pattern for the future, but it might have been a little too early.

A first party developer said that one of the biggest advantage of the cell is the amazing predictability of performance. If a certain job needs, say, 3412 cycles to execute, it will need EXACTLY 3412 cycles every single time, no matter what else is running, no matter what else is trashing the cache. For realtime applications it's a god send. It's also great when trying to get a consistent minimum frame rate, you know exactly what to limit, and any dynamic adjustment can be done in a predictable way, it's fun to optimize, and it limits the weird hiccups in frame rate which are very frequent in third party engines.

At the time the PS3 came out, a GPU didn't do much crunching but times changed. I don't have any arguments against that, so I am going to trust others here that we need more GPU than CPU (i.e. the GPGPU part replacing the SPEs).

 

[Blazkowicz]

That wasn't really the cell2, it was IBM's 65nm shrink which improved the design to fit their supercomputing needs (DP), while Sony's different shrink was simply to save on cost and power, getting exactly the same performance. I don't think there was any difference between the two except the DP part.

it used ddr2 instead of xdr, don't know the width, to get a much higher memory capacity.

 

[AlNom]

it used ddr2 instead of xdr, don't know the width, to get a much higher memory capacity.

Dual 128-bit interface.