Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

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Just read this:

http://www.eetimes.com/rss/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=210604347&cid=RSSfeed_eetimes_newsRSS

it seems that TSMC may be on a fairly mature 28nm by mid 2011 and def for 2012. Which is surprising because I always assumed TSMC would be delivering 32nm in time for consoles so that could give really impressive real estate for transistor budget.

EG. if stick with the same size GPU say around 260mm^2 @ 90nm = 300m transistors then it would yeild 10.3 times the count from 90 to 28 (assuming linear scaling)

So 3 billion trannies is possible. If you factor that they wont go as big this gen then

200mm^2 @ 28nm = 2.3 billion.... not too shabby :yikes:
 
kyetech said:
EG. if stick with the same size GPU say around 260mm^2 @ 90nm = 300m transistors then it would yeild 10.3 times the count from 90 to 28 (assuming linear scaling)

So 3 billion trannies is possible. If you factor that they wont go as big this gen then

200mm^2 @ 28nm = 2.3 billion.... not too shabby :yikes:
Click to expand...
300mm2 isn't that big nowadays -)
 
DegustatoR said:
300mm2 isn't that big nowadays -)
Click to expand...

Yeah, I wrote 200mm^2 re read my post. the 300m you are getting confused with is 300 million (transistors) the tran count for RSX.

The biggest measurement I state is 260mm^2 (the size of the RSX) I then go on to say that they wont be as big next gen. So I use 200mm^2 as the ball park GPU size. Again I suggest you reread my post.

EDIT: Or was that a joke reference to the rv770? :confused:
 
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kyetech said:
Just read this:

http://www.eetimes.com/rss/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=210604347&cid=RSSfeed_eetimes_newsRSS

it seems that TSMC may be on a fairly mature 28nm by mid 2011 and def for 2012. Which is surprising because I always assumed TSMC would be delivering 32nm in time for consoles so that could give really impressive real estate for transistor budget.

EG. if stick with the same size GPU say around 260mm^2 @ 90nm = 300m transistors then it would yeild 10.3 times the count from 90 to 28 (assuming linear scaling)

So 3 billion trannies is possible. If you factor that they wont go as big this gen then

200mm^2 @ 28nm = 2.3 billion.... not too shabby :yikes:
Click to expand...

Problem: So then how do you cut costs? That leaves one (1) die shrink left, ever, presumably (22nm).

Also, I VERY much doubt you'd see 28nm on next gen consoles. It has taken 360 3 years to move from 90nm to 65, (and they still are not there as we await Jasper).
 
kyetech said:
Yeah, I wrote 200mm^2 re read my post. the 300m you are getting confused with is 300 million (transistors) the tran count for RSX.

The biggest measurement I state is 260mm^2 (the size of the RSX) I then go on to say that they wont be as big next gen. So I use 200mm^2 as the ball park GPU size. Again I suggest you reread my post.

EDIT: Or was that a joke reference to the rv770? :confused:
Click to expand...
That was a way to suggest that what was 'big' in last generation may be 'OK' in the next. RSX at 260mm2 isn't big at all nowadays and they probably won't have any reasons to use even smaller CPU and/or GPU in the next generation.
 
I expect theres a good chance things will move the other direction. I think both MS and Sony are surely coming to the conclusion these ridiculously huge hardware losses (fueled by RROD for Ms and Blue Ray for Sony) need to be a thing of the past, period.

Something like break even hardware at a 299 launch price strikes me as a reasonable possibility, meaning they will might not be pushing the relative tech envelope as much as in the past.
 
Rangers said:
Problem: So then how do you cut costs? That leaves one (1) die shrink left, ever, presumably (22nm).

Also, I VERY much doubt you'd see 28nm on next gen consoles. It has taken 360 3 years to move from 90nm to 65, (and they still are not there as we await Jasper).
Click to expand...

Yeah, thats a fair point, But if nothing else starting at 28nm affords you to start with a lower power smaller chip. So even if you start at 150^mm2 @ 28nm thats still an awesome chip. and really a cheap starting point too?

Having said that, the only company I am confident for on going shrinkage beyond 22nm is Intel. They have already stated that the path to 10nm is clear and they will continue their shrinks as per the usual cycle up to that point. They said beyond that they aint really got a clue. Well really they said they wont know until they get there.

Anyway, it gives Larrabee an extra value proposition ;-)
 
DegustatoR said:
That was a way to suggest that what was 'big' in last generation may be 'OK' in the next. RSX at 260mm2 isn't big at all nowadays and they probably won't have any reasons to use even smaller CPU and/or GPU in the next generation.
Click to expand...

Die sizes have been forced to reduce in consoles not increase. Something to do with the difficulty in power scaling per mm^2 for ever smaller transistors? I wont pretend to know, but I think that if you keep the die size the same the smaller transistors actually take more wattage per chip cycle? The smaller transistors leak more current and produce more heat? (Citation required ;-) )

Therefor where a 300mm^2 GPU for a ps2 was ok.

260mm^2 is the limit in PS3

and I guess that an upper limit for next gen would be circa 200mm^2 ?

Again, only guess work.
 
wco81 said:
None of those other CD add-ons were successful.

And even PC CD-ROM wasn't that widely used by the time the PS1 came out.

PS1 converted the industry from cartridges to optical media.

Period.
Click to expand...

PS1 converted an industry already moving to cd to cd ? Wasn't saturn the first system to have a cd rom drive as part of the system at launch?
 
Saturn was out a few months before the PS1 in the US.

Not sure when these systems came out in Japan.

No matter, Saturn didn't have much impact and N64 didn't fare well with cartridges.
 
Shifty Geezer said:
Phillips' CDi, and Commodore's Amiga CDTV and CD32 all trump Saturn.
Click to expand...

well there you go. The change to cd was already happening. I don't think the playstation is responsible for it at all.

Saturn was out a few months before the PS1 in the US.

Not sure when these systems came out in Japan.

No matter, Saturn didn't have much impact and N64 didn't fare well with cartridges
Click to expand...

The saturn was more popular in japan during the first year , it wasn't untill ff7 was announced for the playstation that it took off.

Aside from that there are plenty of examples of other systems with a cdrom add on or one built in that predate the ps1 and thus shows the industry was already moving in that direction. The ps1 wasn't responsible for the inclusion of the cd rom. Also while the ps2 was the first dvd based system , the industry had already moved to larger formats past the cd rom when sega introduced the giga rom for the dreamcast. It just so happened that the ps2 launched at the right time and price to be able to afford the dvd rom drive in it(the dc launched a year earlier at a $100 cheaper). If the 360 launched a year later or even 6 months later we may have seen it with a next gen optical drive also if the price was reasonable.
 
Next-gen optical price probably won't be 'reasonbable' for a whiles yet! XB360 launching a year after it did, it wouldn't have sported HD DVD or BRD because the drive would have pushed the price way up. AFAIK BRDs inclusion is the first time an expensive, bleedining-edge, not-even-finished-yet, storage has been used pushing the console deep into lossy territory. Previous machines have used established tech with a more mass-produced pricepoint.
 
Strangely

Does anyone remember that concept hardware spec for the next-gen of Cell (which the PS4 could most likely use)???

You know, the one with the 32 SPEs and the 2 PPEs?
 
Blackraven said:
Strangely

Does anyone remember that concept hardware spec for the next-gen of Cell (which the PS4 could most likely use)???

You know, the one with the 32 SPEs and the 2 PPEs?
Click to expand...

link

  • IBM PowerXCell 32iv (4PPE’+32 eSPE)
    100% backward compatible
    Performance on PPE significantly better
    Performance per SPE equal or better
    Significantly better on applications that benefit from new instructions
    Better inter-SPE latency
    More on-chip memory
    Better main memory latency and bandwidth
    ~3.8 GHz
    1 TFlop (est.)
 
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