Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[pjbliverpool]

Unlikely, seeing as nobody, but nobody, seems to target high end PC's anymore. Crysis seemingly was the last such gamble, as such it could retain the graphics crown for years. Heck it has already held it for what, one year? Nobody has yet matched Crysis and Crysis Warhead hits today.

I used to think Crysis in 1080P with 4XAA and 60FPS would be what next-gen consoles could do. After all, even the highest end graphics cards cannot meet those specs. But the engine is so poorly optimized, perhaps I was wrong.

Clear Sky is arguably as good looking or even better at the maximum settings. And unshockingly enough, performance is also in the same ball bark.

 

[babcat]

The future of the PS3 is obvious.

A more powerful CELL and a more powerful nVIDIA GPU.

 

[archangelmorph]

http://www.techradar.com/news/gaming/consoles/playstation-4-everything-you-need-to-know-464657

It would be interesting if both the next XBox and PS4 were to use Larrabee. It would certainly make cross-platform development a bit easier, and bring us closer to a "standardized/commodity-based console" model.

It would seem odd for PS4 to use both Larrabee and CELL, instead of multiple CELL processors.

No more odd than coupling CELL with RSX to be honest..
In both cases you have two seperate chips with two seperate architectures, multiple compilers & ISAs..

Pretty much the same bar the fact that with Larabee devs benefit from Intel dev support (compilers, sample code etc..) whereas with RSX they're at the mercy of Sony's efforts alone..

 

[Panajev2001a]

The PSP? Better... Granted I consider it basically a matured PS2 environment. But much of residual PS2 ick factor is just old memories of what the environment was early on. Granted I still have some issues with the compiler and debugger and such.

Uhm... the one after that .

 

[Cyan]

I agree--but that was this generations mantra coming from MS and, in a twisted way, Nintendo.

I sometimes ponder the possibility of a console maker pushing out middleware, renderers, procedural generation tools, even full engines, "packaged" with the devkits. Not just demos, but full licenses where they say "we provide the tools, if you wish, now go make the games!" Considering the royalty fees they charge this could be bundled as part of the "platform experience" and a way to entice development, especially of indie devs. This may not make certain middleware devs happy, but look at Havok and AGEIA who are already hardware aligned so any HW design choices already bias them. Software, as a complete package from developers to user experiences, will be much more important than how many last flops you can juice from a processor, that is for sure.

Hardware is stil important to me. My dream machine -obviously a next gen console- has to be smart, with a lot of RISC processors and cores, and a Ray Tracer GPU.

 

[ken_masters]

The future of the PS3 is obvious.

A more powerful CELL and a more powerful nVIDIA GPU.

Like the Wii future: more efficient control, no hard drive, no blu ray, and less powerful than 360 or PS3.

 

[user542745831]

Yerli: “The next graphics breakthrough will come in 2011/12″

http://www.videogaming247.com/2008/09/23/yerli-the-next-graphics-breakthrough-will-come-in-201112/

CY: The next graphics breakthrough will come in 2011/12, especially because it will be linked to next-generation consoles. I think the PlayStation 4, or the Xbox 720, and the PC generation that equals that will see a renaissance kicking in that will allow us to effectively deliver visuals that will rival offline CGI productions right now.

http://uk.gamespot.com/news/6198054.html

 

[Crossbar]

I think that at least one next gen console will be linked to 3DTV. I think the PS4 is a contender, because every generation of the playstation family have somehow been linked to a generation of technology: CD, DVD, bluray+HDTV. 3DTV seem like a natural next step if the timeline of the 3DTV growth prediction of this article turns out true.

See "Can Hollywood bring 3DTV home?"

Somehow I find it weird that it´s the movie industry that is the driver behind 3DTV and not the Video games industry. Someone explain, maybe they will merge sometime in the future.

Some more info:
Hollywood gears up 3D TV effort
Group peers into 3-D future for Blu-Ray
Panasonic will demo high def 3DTV in Japan -Plasma set based on company's work on Blu-Ray drive

 

[DegustatoR]

because every generation of the playstation family have somehow been linked to a generation of technology

Next generation will be different however. Ken K. isn't in control anymore.

 

[joker454]

...that will allow us to effectively deliver visuals that will rival offline CGI productions right now...

If only I got a dollar every time I heard that...

 

[woundingchaney]

If only I got a dollar every time I heard that...

If I only got a dollar every time someone believed it.

 

[nAo]

Actually we already got there multiple times. What ppl keep forgetting is that is hard to chase a moving target.

 

[obonicus]

Actually we already got there multiple times. What ppl keep forgetting is that is hard to chase a moving target.

Someone stop Pixar!

 

[Megadrive1988]

We'll be extremely blessed if next-gen consoles can output realtime images with the rendering quality seen in mid 1990s CGI (talking about high budget movies) much less, CGI from this decade.

 

[kyetech]

Actually we already got there multiple times. What ppl keep forgetting is that is hard to chase a moving target.

Yeah, actually its funny you should say that. I recently booted up some retro games (Wipeout 2097, and Resident evil 3 Nemesis both on PS1)

I watched with interest the low res, grainy FMV intro animations, and found it interesting to compare that with modern day real time graphics. Yes we have come along way but as you point out its not just real-time that moves on. Pre rendered does too. I do think though that there is some degree of convergence, I don't think the disparity is as wide as it once was between real-time and pre rendered.

IMO Its not just horse power that makes the difference, its also tool sets too; ie offline tool sets versus real time dynamic tool sets. More and more its about the freedom offered to artists than purely what can the GPU crunch. I guess engines like UE3 et al effectively aim at emulating more and more the development capability of software like Maya and Softimage. Or at least work together with said tools so seamlessly that its transparent to the artist affording them unlimited scope in how something can be implemented?

 

[eastmen]

I think that at least one next gen console will be linked to 3DTV. I think the PS4 is a contender, because every generation of the playstation family have somehow been linked to a generation of technology: CD, DVD, bluray+HDTV. 3DTV seem like a natural next step if the timeline of the 3DTV growth prediction of this article turns out true.

See "Can Hollywood bring 3DTV home?"

Somehow I find it weird that it´s the movie industry that is the driver behind 3DTV and not the Video games industry. Someone explain, maybe they will merge sometime in the future.

Some more info:
Hollywood gears up 3D TV effort
Group peers into 3-D future for Blu-Ray
Panasonic will demo high def 3DTV in Japan -Plasma set based on company's work on Blu-Ray drive

CD was used in consoles long before the ps1 ever came out. Sega cd , turbo graphic 16 cd add on and stuff like that . Even cd drives were out about a decade before the ps1 came out

 

[wco81]

None of those other CD add-ons were successful.

And even PC CD-ROM wasn't that widely used by the time the PS1 came out.

PS1 converted the industry from cartridges to optical media.

Period.

 

[emacs]

wild speculation ...

Sony: a 32-SPE Cell, 1 MiB per unit
Nintendo: dual-core 'Broadway 2' CPU developed by IBM
Microsoft: two Intel Larrabee cores on the same die.

 

[kyetech]

Heh,

So if you really link it to predicting next generation console tech, you would conclude based on the above that the core CPU should

a) be OoO
b) Make the thread management as transparent as possible.

Because most current/ younger gen programmers are dummies and wont be able to exploit the hardware if they dont have their hand held by friendly hardware. ;-)

 

[Arwin]

I now temporary believe that whatever tech will best run a next-gen version of LittleBigPlanet (type game) will be the right next gen tech. For instance Sony can ship this to publishers and developers, and all energy can be focussed into creating new features into the engine that game designers or artists require to realise a new idea they are having. Sony/MM will create a few basic templates (fps, platform, rpg) and then the rest of their focus will be on providing services. There will be ever increasing bits of this made available to Home 2.0 users, and while users are playing the first fruits of this labour for the first two years after the console's release, the hardcore developers that still want to can work on developing their own games and/or game engines to search out the bits of new or old ground not covered by the basic sandboxes.

/end LBP beta induced madness