Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[Rangers]

In the process, we rid ourselves of such trivial thoughts as "will those specs fit in a console tdp".

Not really, you just give yourself a little more headroom.

Heck TDP, power draw and heat are even a problem in the highest end PC cards, so it doesn't go away.

I just got a cable box, though not the DVR part, it's surprisingly diminutive and modern.

PS3, Xbox 1, and Xbox 360 were also also pretty big.

All that said I agree to an extent, I would give up some tradeoff of size to get more power. But again say, I think the original PS3 already pushed that pretty far.

On the plus side, it would give you more chance to pump out slim iterations down the road

 

[Squilliam]

One thing I still don't get:

Why is there a perception that consoles cannot take on the same form factor that existing set-top boxes (cable/satelite tv) use today?

Because a console as large as a set top box would only appeal to the group of people whom already own similar equipment and have the space for it. Consoles need to appeal to people who don't have the space or the inclination to stick large numbers of big electronic devices under the TV. You would struggle to sell a console like that for a 2nd TV or an apartment dweller or someone who wants to make their living room as neat as possible.

Depends if that's cheaper than using GDDR5 or whatever other options exist to get to the necessary bandwidth.

DDR4? That comes out in time for the Microsoft and Sony versions of their next generation consoles. The speed starts at 2100Mhz and scales up to twice that.

 

[rpg.314]

http://semiaccurate.com/2011/07/29/texas-instruments-selling-their-omap-division/

Heck, AMD owns all three next gen console GPUs, so it’s hard to say they don’t understand the space.

I am skeptical. But it would be a massive win for them anyway.

 

[AlphaWolf]

http://semiaccurate.com/2011/07/29/texas-instruments-selling-their-omap-division/



I am skeptical. But it would be a massive win for them anyway.

It's only +1. Performance per watt matters, it's certainly believable from that perspective.

 

[TheChefO]

Because a console as large as a set top box would only appeal to the group of people whom already own similar equipment...

Pardon my blunt response, but I'm calling bull____ on that one.

How many people wanted the functionality of a DVR, ordered the service, and cancelled it based on the size of the box?

We would need numbers on this (either way) to carry that forward, but I'm inclined to believe the number isn't very large considering the heavy push of DVR's into peoples homes (and even bedrooms).

http://www.afterdawn.com/news/article.cfm/2007/09/26/dvr_use_expected_to_reach_50_of_us_households_by_2011

This link says 50% of US homes will have DVR by end of the year. 75% by 2013.

I'm sure neither MS nor Sony would cry at those numbers.

Let's drop this silly notion that consoles need to be the size of a portable dvd player to be successful.

One caveat:

Japan.

They do seem to have a fetish for unreasonably small devices, but they are also a smaller and smaller portion of the gaming pie. And in MS' case, they might as well not exist. I see no reason to sacrifice power for thermal design just to appease a market which accounts for less than 10% of their sales.

Europe is a bit more of a tweener:

Growth by region (in millions):

http://www.storagenewsletter.com/news/consumer/informa-telecoms-media-dvr-pvr-sales

Percentage of TV's with DVR:

As we've seen this generation, poor thermal design can cost a company hundreds of millions of dollars and untold lost sales due to poor reputation. A standard Entertainment device size (17" wide) allows for cheaper cooling solutions while still pushing the power envelope to something beyond ps3/xbox x2.

 

[TheChefO]

Not really, you just give yourself a little more headroom.

Granted.

However, when we shed the "make it as small as possible" mentality, we do see either the cost of the cooling solution dropping significantly, and/or the maximum TDP rising significantly above the targets assumed for x next-gen console.

I don't have hard numbers either way as I'm not an engineer in this realm, however, I do know that TDP in a 17" box can be larger than the TDP of a xb360 @ 12"x10" given the same cooling solution.

 

[Blazkowicz]

I have a DVR in a set-top box, its dimensions actually are 12"x9".
it's a two-box set up, where the hard drive actually is in the modem/router/server box, and the player box does video playback, bluray, TV, games etc.

it's ISP-provided whether I need it or not, I don't use it because I don't want to watch TV (and it is not VGA compatible)

 

[MfA]

I don't have hard numbers either way as I'm not an engineer in this realm, however, I do know that TDP in a 17" box can be larger than the TDP of a xb360 @ 12"x10" given the same cooling solution.

Why? With heatpipes moving heat around is trivial ... so given the same cooling solution (ie. heatsink area and airflow) the size of the box essentially becomes meaningless, at worst the smaller enclosure will require more heatpipes rather than relying on internal passive heatsinks and airflow.

 

[AlNom]

They'd still need a big enough (limited configuration) or fast enough (more noise) fan to deal with the heat removal in a smaller chassis.

 

[TheChefO]

Why? With heatpipes moving heat around is trivial ... so given the same cooling solution (ie. heatsink area and airflow) the size of the box essentially becomes meaningless, at worst the smaller enclosure will require more heatpipes rather than relying on internal passive heatsinks and airflow.

Heatpipes are effective but they do have higher costs associated with them.

 

[TheChefO]

I have a DVR in a set-top box, its dimensions actually are 12"x9".
it's a two-box set up, where the hard drive actually is in the modem/router/server box, and the player box does video playback, bluray, TV, games etc.

it's ISP-provided whether I need it or not, I don't use it because I don't want to watch TV (and it is not VGA compatible)

A multibox setup is an interesting option, but I'm not sure that's the route ms/Sony want to go. Even if new connection technolgies allow it (thunderbolt etc).

My whole point is to think outside the box of traditional console design expectations/limitations (no pun intended).

 

[stiftl]

One thing I still don't get:

Why is there a perception that consoles cannot take on the same form factor that existing set-top boxes (cable/satelite tv) use today?

People are perfectly happy with a standard 17" wide dvr sitting under their tv. With consoles taking on much of the entertainment responsibility that these boxes are commonly associated with, I see no reason that they could not also adopt their form factor.

1) 17" form factor is already accepted for cable/ sat tv dvrs
2) 17" form factor is already accepted for other entertainment devices such as dvd players, bluray players, av receivers, tivo, dvd/cd changers, etc.
3) 17" form factor would allow stacking of components ( a plus for ht enthusiasts) and not look out of place
4) 17" form factor would allow for more cost effective cooling solutions
5) 17" form factor would allow for beefier hardware (a big plus for gaining competitive edge on wii U)


Bottom line, I think the gaming industry (and consumer) has grown up enough to not be concerned with having the "smallest box on the shelf". These are entertainment devices which are finding their way into livingrooms, instead of relegated to a gameroom/bedroom.

Remember, the demographic shift of consumers that grew up with NES are now having kids of their own. This is no longer an industry of pg13.

Look at the best sellers:
Gears
COD
etc

These aren't kids games. It's about time the form-factor reflected that.

In the process, we rid ourselves of such trivial thoughts as "will those specs fit in a console tdp".

I never understood why especially Sony haven't thought about this earlier. Would love a 17" console in BluRayDisc-Player design!

 

[AlNom]

I just want a box that can facilitate stacking.

 

[wco81]

Console probably generates more heat than most other set top boxes?

 

[TheChefO]

Console probably generates more heat than most other set top boxes?

Probably.

...And yet ... MS/Sony have been designing the enclosures even smaller than DVR's ...

It's amazing failure rates haven't been even worse.

I just want a box that can facilitate stacking.

I just want a box that isn't targeting <100w TDP for next-gen.

If that means 17", then I welcome the standard size equipment to go along with the improved performance.

Nothing prevents a shrink in the design down the road either. In fact, I'd prefer they keep the 17" standard width and shrink the height and depth if they feel the need to appease size-obsessed console fans while still keeping a standard width for us "stackers".

 

[TheChefO]

Perhaps this is finally the generation where we get forward compatible console games. Nothing drastic, just a two or three tier performance option which plays the same content with the same refresh, but with your option of detail rendered.

PC game developers have been use to this design methodology for years, but implementing it in this manor would be much simpler.

Those of us who don't mind a 17" standard width device could opt for the slightly hotter, slightly more expensive, cutting edge tech. While those of us that are size obsessed, could buy the wiiu or the slimmer less expensive, less cutting edge version.

Both would play the same games online against the same competitors on either the basic or premium consoles, have access to the same online features and basically would be identical - other than higher or lower rendering fidelity.

 

[pc999]

I just want a box that isn't targeting <100w TDP for next-gen.

I actually want <100W.

It is not only quite good for the planet, but it is a quite a money saver, it can easily mean more games.

 

[AlphaWolf]

I actually want <100W.

It is not only quite good for the planet, but it is a quite a money saver, it can easily mean more games.

If you want to save the planet buy an ipad, or better yet don't buy any electronics at all. In any event I'm sure Nintendo will have you covered.

 

[Prophecy2k]

If you want to save the planet buy an ipad, or better yet don't buy any electronics at all. In any event I'm sure Nintendo will have you covered.

The one-year-life-cycle throw-away nature of iOS devices are the last things that will save this planet... in fact, quite the converse.

 

[pc999]

If you want to save the planet buy an ipad, or better yet don't buy any electronics at all. In any event I'm sure Nintendo will have you covered.

Have you been educated in the 60s? Are you going to call me a hippie too? No under half of the world is getting bigger dept to pay dept that are used to perpetuate slave work and a regression in the rights of the man...


Anyway let me try
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sustainable_energy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sustainable_development


Also my "saving the planet" pay backs in having money for more games.