Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech
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And, following the trends of the last decade, will draw north of 300W.
This is well-trodden ground. A minimum requirement for speculation is to define power envelope and lithographic process first, and then go berserk.
Yeah I was saying the next gen consoles won't be at that level though.
I think the problem is not so much processing power and cost that these GPUs are coming to next consoles, but the TDP is to be the Achilles heel.
Perhaps with 3D gate, 28nm and reengineering (removal transistors for things pcs, bus,memory controller,large caches to mask latency between buses etc.) to improve much, but even AMD* with the best relations power / wattage will have many difficulties to place in APU in the end 2012 (yeah i believe next console comes mid-end 2013...Wii U may have rushed schedule.) the best GPU we have today (10 X power x360 and ps3 power) in a console not much above 150 watts/TDP.
A hint perhaps keep an eye on advancement of mobile GPUs, as they show is that the best power / wattage maybe can serve best parameter** for next gen consoles.
*
http://techreport.com/articles.x/20126/15
** Today is Radeon 6990M =~ same performance Radeon HD 6850.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_AMD_graphics_processing_units
Perhaps with 3D gate, 28nm and reengineering (removal transistors for things pcs, bus,memory controller,large caches to mask latency between buses etc.) to improve much, but even AMD* with the best relations power / wattage will have many difficulties to place in APU in the end 2012 (yeah i believe next console comes mid-end 2013...Wii U may have rushed schedule.) the best GPU we have today (10 X power x360 and ps3 power) in a console not much above 150 watts/TDP.
A hint perhaps keep an eye on advancement of mobile GPUs, as they show is that the best power / wattage maybe can serve best parameter** for next gen consoles.
*
http://techreport.com/articles.x/20126/15
** Today is Radeon 6990M =~ same performance Radeon HD 6850.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparison_of_AMD_graphics_processing_units
Persistantthug
Newcomer
Last Sunday, HipHopGamer said that Microsoft is looking to get 10 Gigs of total memory into their next console. Alot of people scoffed at this claim, but there is nothing outrageous about this claim.
8Gigs of ram + 2Gigs of video = 10GB
Those are pretty common PC ram specs today...let alone 2 years from now when the next XBOX will probably be released.
So I agree, 8 Gigs of ram for the next generation of consoles will be the likely goal....who knows...maybe even more than that considering that everyone wants the next console(s) to pretty much do everything.
8Gigs of ram + 2Gigs of video = 10GB
Those are pretty common PC ram specs today...let alone 2 years from now when the next XBOX will probably be released.
So I agree, 8 Gigs of ram for the next generation of consoles will be the likely goal....who knows...maybe even more than that considering that everyone wants the next console(s) to pretty much do everything.
That's what I mean though, A) I'm not sure we'll get another gen by 2013, B) I think we can sort of exempt GPU's that come out around the same time as the consoles from our thinking, so a possible fall 13 GPU perhaps shouldn't really be considered. Anyways to hit 2013 that's all operating on a strict one year per GPU family timeline which is probably too aggressive nowdays.
TDP, hmm. that's interesting, are GPU's that much higher today than around Xenos time? They dont appear to be too unmanageable according to this table http://www.geeks3d.com/20090618/graphics-cards-thermal-design-power-tdp-database/ the AMD cards aren't too bad there. And I wonder how much a 100mhz downclock and some cherry picking might help?
Anyways I think we should look at a console drawing 200 watts just like last gen.
Honestly I'm not sure why more, like 300 watts, isn't possible. With adequate cooling and size of the console?
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I'd rather they aim higher, but more watts means larger box and higher associated costs (cooling, weight, noise, shipping) so I think increases will be tempered somewhat by those limits. I think (hope) 300W might be possible if they expect a shrink in fairly short order, but you can't necessarily afford to add costs if your competition isn't and you're not obviously outclassing them. So any jump in TDP will have to be 'worth it'.
In my opinion Radeon HD 5870 is the best card relation power/wattage and reach something like 290 watts (loads) and 130 watts idle.
If we compare wattage 90nm RSX around 120/140 watts* with Xenos on the same parameters, it may be possible to have next gen consoles with similar performance to Radeon HD 5870 (1600SIMD/cores, 2.72 Tflops= ~ 10X PS360) and same TDP( believing in 28nm/3d gate,reengineering etc),but the problem is console at 200 watts level with a very small size(4 high x 15 x 15 inches) and eficcient heat dissipation (with extra costs) that does not bring or allow new YLODs RRODs, E74 etc.
Maybe there is not efficient enough (for core gamers who play 4 hours or more,downloading demos,movies whateaver) system to work to reduce heat levels of 200+ watts and still fit into the limited size of the next gen consoles ... and if its possible there may have to observe the behavior of high-end notebooks.
* http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PlayStation_3_hardware
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Try 16 watts idle and 192 watts max (ie furmark or the like), average (playing crysis 2 or the like) is around 130 watts.
Ooops sorry i never had this 3D card ...and my information came this link* that says something between 350/400 watts I think the whole system.
So the Radeon HD 5870 reaches 192 watts maximum, then shrinks with, 3d gate etc can achieve less than 100 watts?
* http://www.guru3d.com/article/radeon-hd-5870-review-test/13
(192 watts with excelent 3D card in the pc universe ... like to hear it!)
Like I said I liked to hear it ... increased my hopes for next gen really powerful.
So these numbers TDP manufacturer would be totally reliable? Believed so until the safety of consumers protected by law, then we can surmise here GPU Radeon HD 5870 performance level (ps360 = ~ 10 *) and wattage levels APUs for notebooks(today "only" level Radeon HD 6850/100 watts) and next gen console ?
Not without gimping clocks & voltage. Power scaling hasn't been linear for quite awhile now.
Thanx for information and very interesting that, but is with these changes and reengineering(less transistors pc side etc) could hit levels of 120/140 watts of the 90nm RSX PS3 launch? If its possible maybe still problems in a closed box console in a small size and have to dissipate heat 200 + watts. I'm hoping very much that this issue is resolved, but without having to wait for new version of shrink after year launch that the next gen console reach is really stable and accepted levels with less than 5% damaged.
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Blazkowicz
Legend
that power figure for the RSX feels wrong, as a 7900GTX was under 90 watts. that's the same chip with twice the memory bus and higher clocks.
an interesting TDP chart of many cards here :
http://www.geeks3d.com/20090618/graphics-cards-thermal-design-power-tdp-database/
/edit : ouch, it hadn't occured to me that same link was already posted
an interesting TDP chart of many cards here :
http://www.geeks3d.com/20090618/graphics-cards-thermal-design-power-tdp-database/
/edit : ouch, it hadn't occured to me that same link was already posted
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We're really looking at 2 years for a major architecture upgrade with a simple refresh coming in the middle year. 2 years would still be in line with what we've seen recently. i.e. 38xx - > 58xx was autumn 2007 and autumn 2009. And now we have 58xx -> 78xx (southern islands) from autumn 2009 to autumn 2011.
True that the very latest GPU's from late 2013 might not be in the running so maybe we are looking at a Southern Islands refresh which would be around 1 year old at that point. But at the high end that should still be getting on for 20x current console power so it wouldn't tally with the 10x quoted earlier.
Probably the most likely candidate will be a custom mid range R8xxx featuring some design elements of the brand new R9xxx. That could quite easily fall into the 10x current console performance envelope and equal todays highest end single GPU's.
I don't believe we should look at desktop parts where power and cooling are both abundant in order to find a surrogate to any hypothetical console configuration we might think of. A console is an embedded platform and so to make a correlation with existing parts we ought to compare it to another similar embedded platform, laptop GPUs. It doesn't matter what an Evergreen part at 850Mhz with > 100 GB/S memory bandwidth consumes with it's 1600 Stream Processors because it's quite likely that no console will be released with a 256 bit bus nor will the chip be clocked at 850Mhz.
Depends if that's cheaper than using GDDR5 or whatever other options exist to get to the necessary bandwidth.
One thing I still don't get:
Why is there a perception that consoles cannot take on the same form factor that existing set-top boxes (cable/satelite tv) use today?
People are perfectly happy with a standard 17" wide dvr sitting under their tv. With consoles taking on much of the entertainment responsibility that these boxes are commonly associated with, I see no reason that they could not also adopt their form factor.
1) 17" form factor is already accepted for cable/ sat tv dvrs
2) 17" form factor is already accepted for other entertainment devices such as dvd players, bluray players, av receivers, tivo, dvd/cd changers, etc.
3) 17" form factor would allow stacking of components ( a plus for ht enthusiasts) and not look out of place
4) 17" form factor would allow for more cost effective cooling solutions
5) 17" form factor would allow for beefier hardware (a big plus for gaining competitive edge on wii U)
Bottom line, I think the gaming industry (and consumer) has grown up enough to not be concerned with having the "smallest box on the shelf". These are entertainment devices which are finding their way into livingrooms, instead of relegated to a gameroom/bedroom.
Remember, the demographic shift of consumers that grew up with NES are now having kids of their own. This is no longer an industry of pg13.
Look at the best sellers:
Gears
COD
etc
These aren't kids games. It's about time the form-factor reflected that.
In the process, we rid ourselves of such trivial thoughts as "will those specs fit in a console tdp".
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