Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[pjbliverpool]

Comparing a triple core 6+ year old lean & mean PPC chip with a state of the art off the shelf, full-fat desktop CPU (with probably about 2-3+ times the transistor count) is a bit silly no?
Especially if the aim is to try to argue the merits of MS/Sony putting an x86 ISA chip in the next console over an IBM/PPC solution. I thought that was what we were discussing..?

I was referring specifically to the point being made that SIMD performance is what mattered in a console environment over more general performance. Admitedly the example was an extreme one and probably not all that useful but I wanted to illistrate the point that because you have more SIMD capability (Xenon vs i 920) does not necessarly mean you have more real world capability in console workloads. All else being equal it's obviously an advantage. But all else isn't equal.

My last post probably gives a more valid example of this - or at least poses the question based on a more valid example. I don't claim to have any definate answers.

 

[Rangers]

I'm still just wondering which supposed next machine would use the AMD APU.

But, a little birdie in the know told me next gen machines are massively powerful beasts (~10X current and huge gap over Wii U), and Xbox next even moreso. So I guess I'll stop crying about the whole APU thing.

 

[Heinrich4]

I'm still just wondering which supposed next machine would use the AMD APU.

But, a little birdie in the know told me next gen machines are massively powerful beasts (~10X current and huge gap over Wii U), and Xbox next even moreso. So I guess I'll stop crying about the whole APU thing.

Fusion APU with 4 cpus Bulldozer + GPU Radeon HD 5870 like?

I would expect being optimistic APU with gpu with 1000 stream processors/SIMD (Northern Island class/Family) cores or something like 2 or 3 times Wii U with a gpu 4850/4870 level.

But if we are positively surprised... perhaps developers working on the metal this APU ( assembler/low level whateaver on gpu side) with gpu level HD 5870 (1600 SIMD cores) maybe have really greater capabilities, but 10X Wii U ( im sincerelly hopefully yes) ?

 

[Rangers]

Oh i dont "know" anything that specific, nobody likely does, just generalities. And a lot can change between now and 2k13-4. Still, it's good news.

I'd hope for something more advanced than 5870 as that will be pretty old in 2013+.

And the reference was 10X current consoles, not necessarily Wii U, but was also told it's major leap over Wii U by extension.

 

[hoho]

~10X current

So either 10 or 20TFLOPS depending if comparing vs xb or ps and their performance as reported years ago?

Though I do wonder if it's 10x everything or something like 2x ram, 3x gpu, 3x cpu and multiplying that together.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Though I do wonder if it's 10x everything or something like 2x ram, 3x gpu, 3x cpu and multiplying that together.

I doubt you're going to see 10x everything, but the 2x ram 3x gpu 3x cpu... seems kinda pathetic as that could be achieved on older existing hardware and probably for much less than the original boxes shipped. Especially if you consider we're talking about a release date that is much more than a year away.

 

[Brad Grenz]

You're easily going to see 4-8X the RAM, CPU and GPU.

 

[Rangers]

Also told PS4 will be Vita-like easy to program. Opposite of PS3.

Likely rules out Cell derivatives.

 

[pjbliverpool]

So either 10 or 20TFLOPS depending if comparing vs xb or ps and their performance as reported years ago?

Though I do wonder if it's 10x everything or something like 2x ram, 3x gpu, 3x cpu and multiplying that together.

10x either PS3 or X360 does not equal 10 or 20 TFLOPS. It's around 2.4 TFLOPS maximum if looking at the GPU or 4.4 if looking at CPU and GPU combined.

If the source is reliable and correct though then it almost certainly refers to 10x overall performance rather than any specific metric. Effectively what you get in single GPU high end PC's of today which in turn are 2-3x more performant than something of around 4850 level (WiiU).

Sounds more like guess work based on current PC power to me though.

 

[hoho]

10x either PS3 or X360 does not equal 10 or 20 TFLOPS. It's around 2.4 TFLOPS maximum if looking at the GPU or 4.4 if looking at CPU and GPU combined.

I guess you've forgot how MS and sony said their consoles are capable of 1 and 2TFLOPS respectively. Obviously they included every tiny bit of computational resources they had in there, including fixed-function stuff like texture sampling.

Sounds more like guess work based on current PC power to me though.

I think the same. It's way too early to give even rough estimates of the new console performance and that "10x faster" seems like just a pretty random number to me.

 

[Rangers]

Well combine what I was told with the Eurogamer next gen article, and it seems some vague, subject to change next gen PS4/XB720 specs and quote "pre-dev kits" are in devs hands.

10x faster may be a "random number" buit it's an order of magnitude, which isn't a random number, and basically suggests next consoles will take advantage of Moore's law as before, and before anyone says "duh", dont, there are plenty of people in this thread proposing that next gen would not be a huge leap.

Ok this is exactly copy-pasting one part of what was told to me

Ps4 (with the target specs in hand) will be ~10x ps3 (in cpu and gpu) and xbox next will be more impressive ... so big jump over Wii U.

So judge for yourself, the next consoles are still 2-3 years away so I'm sure we'll go through the whole rollercoaster a few more times before then and all this will be forgotten. But note he says "with the target specs in hand" which is very specific.

Anyways, like I said I'm sure we'll go through 5 more rollercoasters before seeing shipping hardware, so take it for what it is.

But for me it was a big relief after all the AMD APU talk.

 

[hoho]

I'm one of them that don't believe the new consoles to be anywhere near high-end PCs that exist at launch time and I'm not even considering multi-GPU setups. It's just not viable to come out with something that costs 600$+ and put in a small box.

10x speed of Cell is also a "bit" questionable. 10x faster at what kind of code exactly? I don't think they'd be 10x faster in parallel SIMD stuff running on several SPUs.

 

[Rangers]

I'm one of them that don't believe the new consoles to be anywhere near high-end PCs that exist at launch time and I'm not even considering multi-GPU setups. It's just not viable to come out with something that costs 600$+ and put in a small box.

There would be no reason for it to cost $600. That was mostly the Blu Ray premium anyway, and not indicative of a real cost. PS3 imo would have been 399 without Blu Ray.

As far as I know, a high end single GPU from AMD or Nvidia is likely very comparable in silicon cost to the $100 that Xenos/RSX where said to cost at launch.

I would be imagining something like, if the consoles were to launch tomorrow, a HD6970 variant, so you could call it a 6950 if you wanted. Down clocked for heat and yield, maybe 650 or 700 mhz. Does not seem unreasonable. Of course scale this accordingly to 2012-13 launch.

Newegg has 6870's, 1.7B transistors, 1120 SP's, for $150 after rebate, with 1GB GDDR5 RAM. 6950's (2.7B transistors IIRC) with 2GB go for about $250. You've already accounted for a lot of the cost of a console in there imo. Some of the RAM, a full circuit board and power circuitry if not as advanced, a full cooling system, etc. I doubt a mass produced console mother board costs drastically more than GPU board. So that just leaves you with the CPU and optical drive as major costs (and we know optical should be cheap). Seems doable for $400. Plus we know that the "real" costs of GPU's bear little resemblance to their price, assuredly a GTX 580 does not "cost" $450, it's all down to market slotting. So basically I'm guessing all the high end GPU dies costs near $100 or less.

 

[mrcorbo]

I still wonder about the possibility of an APU combined with a discrete GPU in a next-gen console with the aim of, through process advancements, moving the discrete GPU on package and eventually on-die for cost-reduction purposes.

Hopefully, the console platform would allow the designer to better integrate the different types of compute units in an APU than has been seen in the PC space so far.

 

[hoho]

APU+discreete GPU seems like asking for problems to me. You'd basically have 3 distinct "computing units" to program for. Sure, two of them might share the "instruction set" but you'd still have to take memory bandwidth, latency, what's cached where, how is data shared between them and closeness to GPU into account.

 

[mrcorbo]

APU+discreete GPU seems like asking for problems to me. You'd basically have 3 distinct "computing units" to program for. Sure, two of them might share the "instruction set" but you'd still have to take memory bandwidth, latency, what's cached where, how is data shared between them and closeness to GPU into account.

Ideally, development tools/APIs should handle the bulk of the load there and I suspect certain types of operations would perform better/more efficiently on the "local" streaming units than they would on the discrete units. Yet, overall performance would not have be restricted by what could be fit onto a single die in the initial design.

 

[pjbliverpool]

As far as I know, a high end single GPU from AMD or Nvidia is likely very comparable in silicon cost to the $100 that Xenos/RSX where said to cost at launch.

But a high end single GPU from late 2013 won't be 10x the power of current consoles. We were there a year ago (or more). By late 2013 you'll be looking at more like 30x.

So either the source is wrong or it won't be anything like hgh end PC GPU power of the time.

 

[Rangers]

But a high end single GPU from late 2013 won't be 10x the power of current consoles. We were there a year ago (or more). By late 2013 you'll be looking at more like 30x.

So either the source is wrong or it won't be anything like hgh end PC GPU power of the time.

HD 5870 from Sep 2009 is not far from top single AMD GPU today August 2011. Although it will fall further behind the more advanced the game probably.

I mean I sort of agree, but there's caveats. Plus it sort of depends how many more process shrinks we get by fall 2013. I'd assume there's a chance we get only one, and the 2nd might end up in 2014. Or it could be the consoles use a top GPU from the year prior, rather than the bleeding edge if something debuts in late 2013.

AFAIK, AMD supposedly brings out a new gen this fall. IF it doesn't slip, maybe we get a refresh in fall 12. Maybe we get a new gen in fall 13 or maybe not. So you might only be looking at one real gen between now and next consoles. And again it would be unknown if the consoles would want to incorporate tech from late 2013 in a 2013 launch, that might be really pushing it. Xenos basically did that, but RSX didn't, and there was the whole RROD thing, there's risk of delays, etc.

 

[pjbliverpool]

Bascially I'm taking the 5870 to be 10x current gen performance. We then have Southern Islands later this year, a refresh in 2012 and another new architecture in 2013. I'd be suprised if the next architecture after Southern Islands isn't around 3x faster than the 5870 (30x current consoles).

 

[Entropy]

Bascially I'm taking the 5870 to be 10x current gen performance. We then have Southern Islands later this year, a refresh in 2012 and another new architecture in 2013. I'd be suprised if the next architecture after Southern Islands isn't around 3x faster than the 5870 (30x current consoles).

And, following the trends of the last decade, will draw north of 300W.
This is well-trodden ground. A minimum requirement for speculation is to define power envelope and lithographic process first, and then go berserk.