Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[3dilettante]

I don't know , can't ms fab the chips at global foundry

MS cannot sell an x86 design, or at least not one with design features newer than the Pentium era.
A Bulldozer design created by AMD would have implemented an unknown number of features that are allowable by virtue of the cross-licensing agreement between Intel and AMD. AMD does not have the right to invite other companies into that agreement.
To even attempt it would have an injunction slapped on Microsoft, and AMD would lose the right to sell any modern x86 compatible chip in its product mix.

It would waste Microsoft's time and money, and it would end AMD.

Microsoft could purchase a finished product of some kind from AMD, but that would be more restrictive going forward when it comes to shrinks and design modification.

 

[MfA]

They can do a semi-open accounting setup where they promise to sell at cost + 5$ with Microsoft deciding the scheduling of capacity at GloFo, and arrange contracts for shrinks and integration ahead of time.

 

[corduroygt]

They can do a semi-open accounting setup where they promise to sell at cost + 5$ with Microsoft deciding the scheduling of capacity at GloFo, and arrange contracts for shrinks and integration ahead of time.

Why would they settle for cost + $5 with MS when there's the x86 market for AMD CPU's?

 

[MfA]

Because Microsoft would bring money up front as well.

PS. this is also why AMD would probably be easier to bargain with than Intel, since money up front means more to them.

 

[corduroygt]

Because Microsoft would bring money up front as well.

PS. this is also why AMD would probably be easier to bargain with than Intel, since money up front means more to them.

It'd have to be a lot of money to make up for the lost profits due to premium manufacturing capacity being allocated for low margin console CPU's vs. high margin PC CPU's. At that point MS might just think money is better spent on a Power or even ARM design.

ARM is already much more efficient than X86 per clock on integer performance. Given the news about the PSP2, how about a hybrid cell with a 4 or 8 core performance optimized (3ghz+) ARM cpu and spu's to make up for the lackluster ARM FP performance?

 

[Tahir2]

The only way a deal like that would make sense for Global Foundries and AMD is if the CPU is manufactured at a fabrication plant that is not being used to capacity and can spare the additional order.
Or alternatively the fabrication plant is a node behind and not scheduled for an upgrade and therefore an order for CPU's at an older node would make some sense. But then this would mean MS are whoever are opting for a larger and slower CPU than the competition may opt for.

Either way I have to agree that $5 profit per CPU seems lowish.

 

[eastmen]

The only way a deal like that would make sense for Global Foundries and AMD is if the CPU is manufactured at a fabrication plant that is not being used to capacity and can spare the additional order.
Or alternatively the fabrication plant is a node behind and not scheduled for an upgrade and therefore an order for CPU's at an older node would make some sense. But then this would mean MS are whoever are opting for a larger and slower CPU than the competition may opt for.

Either way I have to agree that $5 profit per CPU seems lowish.

$5 seems lowish your right. I just threw it out as an example. There are benfits for AMD however.

AMD would instantly ramp their chip production to the millions of units , they would have a steady flow of income that doesn't change often unlike the cpu market where the asp constantly changes. even a $5, $10 per chip fee is good as bulldozer hits newer and newer process nodes and drops more and more in cost. It will also help GF stay at capacity.

I don't know if amd getting a chip design into a next gen console is a great thing for them. I don't really see it as a bad thing

 

[corduroygt]

$5 seems lowish your right. I just threw it out as an example. There are benfits for AMD however.

AMD would instantly ramp their chip production to the millions of units, they would have a steady flow of income that doesn't change often unlike the cpu market where the asp constantly changes. even a $5, $10 per chip fee is good as bulldozer hits newer and newer process nodes and drops more and more in cost. It will also help GF stay at capacity.

I don't know if amd getting a chip design into a next gen console is a great thing for them. I don't really see it as a bad thing

There is NO excess capacity for the best manufacturing node. If there's any excess it'll be in the previous generation manufacturing node. Given that GF is rapidly increasing their production capacity leads me to think that they don't have much extra that they can spare.

 

[bomlat]

The cutting edge max product development not an evening session,when you do same sketch,give it to someone with instructions like :"6 core with pile of mem and fast gfx,please".

That is a complicated projects,and everyone have to deliver on quality,on time,on cost.
And you have to consider at least 5-8 yrs lifespan.

 

[AlphaWolf]

Intel is selling 22nm capacity.

 

[3dilettante]

Are you referring to the fab deal with that small FPGA design company?
The choice of such a small partner is no coincidence, and Intel likely seeks to benefit somehow by having an FPGA maker on its process, perhaps as a trial run for its process or a target of technology acquisition for future designs.

 

[corduroygt]

Intel is selling 22nm capacity.

Definitely not for cost + $5 though. Which is fine when you're making super expensive low volume FPGA's, not so good for console CPU's

 

[phenix]

Intel is selling 22nm capacity.

Not for profit as far as I remember. Just for research purposes.

 

[MfA]

It'd have to be a lot of money to make up for the lost profits due to premium manufacturing capacity being allocated for low margin console CPU's vs. high margin PC CPU's. At that point MS might just think money is better spent on a Power or even ARM design.

If Microsoft manufactures the same mm2 of Power or ARM at GloFo on the same process it will have EXACTLY the same effect on AMD (drive up the foundry cost because of increased competition). Whether they compete with themselves for foundry capacity or whether they compete with Microsoft matters not one iota in the end.

Payment to the foundry is part of the cost, not part of the 5$.

 

[corduroygt]

If Microsoft manufactures the same mm2 of Power or ARM at GloFo on the same process it will have EXACTLY the same effect on AMD (drive up the foundry cost because of increased competition). Whether they compete with themselves for foundry capacity or whether they compete with Microsoft matters not one iota in the end.

Payment to the foundry is part of the cost, not part of the 5$.

But they don't have to make it at GloFo when they have their licensed/owned IP. They can go to TSMC,IBM, etc.

 

[eastmen]

There is NO excess capacity for the best manufacturing node. If there's any excess it'll be in the previous generation manufacturing node. Given that GF is rapidly increasing their production capacity leads me to think that they don't have much extra that they can spare.

Whats it matter , neither console has been on cutting edge process nodes.

by the time intel and amd were on 6xnm chips sony and ms were still shipping 90nm consoles. When ms and sony moved to 65nm chips intel and amd were on 45nm . When sony and ms moved to 4xnm intel is on 32nm and amd is moving to 32/28nm

If MS releases a console with 32/28nm tech they would ride it till the next node is more mas smarket to begin with.

 

[bomlat]

Whats it matter , neither console has been on cutting edge process nodes.

by the time intel and amd were on 6xnm chips sony and ms were still shipping 90nm consoles. When ms and sony moved to 65nm chips intel and amd were on 45nm . When sony and ms moved to 4xnm intel is on 32nm and amd is moving to 32/28nm

If MS releases a console with 32/28nm tech they would ride it till the next node is more mas smarket to begin with.

The intel/amd can release low vol/high cost stuff,but the MS/SY/NI need high volume/reliable source-not a few thousand unit.
And they have to flush out all parts from the pipeline if there is a major revision.

 

[corduroygt]

When sony and ms moved to 4xnm intel is on 32nm and amd is moving to 32/28nm

Incorrect. Intel is indeed ahead of everyone, but Sony and MS have been on par with AMD for almost a year now. Intel won't go into low margin business with their 32nm process and AMD doesn't even have it yet.

 

[MfA]

But they don't have to make it at GloFo when they have their licensed/owned IP. They can go to TSMC,IBM, etc.

That depends if they want Bulldozer or Bobcat, for the former it's not really a choice.

 

[corduroygt]

That depends if they want Bulldozer or Bobcat, for the former it's not really a choice.

AMD won't make Bulldozers for MS at $5-10 over cost though, since they can sell them for much more.