aaronspink
Veteran
Huh, you could pretty easily put <$1B on the table and produce a console next year that is 10x the performance of the current gen consoles. And you can do that in <200 watts pretty easily.
Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech
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Huh, you could pretty easily put <$1B on the table and produce a console next year that is 10x the performance of the current gen consoles. And you can do that in <200 watts pretty easily.
No,I believe there will be no ps4/xb3 due to the above reasons.
You're nuts.
The next generation consoles will be released 3 and a half process nodes beyond the original specification for the current generation consoles. To think that Moore's law wouldn't apply is pretty crazy in itself. We've gone from 100M transisters per 100mm^2 to 1000M transisters per 100mm^2.
aaronspink
Veteran
One not enough,you need at least 10 million in the first year.
Which as I said, is pretty easy with currently available OTS technology.
One not enough,you need at least 10 million in the first year.
Look at it this way.
Anand uses
intel core 17 920 @ 3.33ghz
OCZ Summit 120gig hardrive
9 gigs of ddr 3 1333
Radeon 6950 2 gigs
And under load he is hitting only 292 watts of power
http://www.anandtech.com/show/4061/amds-radeon-hd-6970-radeon-hd-6950/24
Now think of the same system but on 28nm later this year. The power usage will go down even further. If MS or Sony has a chip designed for 28nm for a launch in 2012 they can easily pack in many times the performance of last gen systems.
Lets think about it .
On 28nm a console can consist of
A radeon 69x0 chip or geforce 5x0 chip
A large cpu the size of sandy bridge or bulldozer
Large amounts of ram 4-8 gigs is easily possible
I don't see a system using more power than last gen consoles which btw was close to 200w
http://www.hardcoreware.net/reviews/review-356-1.htm
Most people think that MS can afford those losses and maybe they can but the shareholders don't like it one bit.
It will be interesting to see who goes all out nextgen and who will just upgrade their specs enough to be competitive.
It will be very interesting at the very least.
I would love to know what sony is thinking beyond PSP2.
Also backwards compatibility is a must due to how much people own on PSN and Xbox live.
Does this force sony into nvidea and MS into ATi again?
It will be interesting to see who goes all out nextgen and who will just upgrade their specs enough to be competitive.
It will be very interesting at the very least.
I would love to know what sony is thinking beyond PSP2.
Also backwards compatibility is a must due to how much people own on PSN and Xbox live.
Does this force sony into nvidea and MS into ATi again?
It depends on what losses your talking about.
MS is in a much better situation heading into thier third generation than they were heading into their first generation.
The xbox failed to surpase 25m units sold in 4 years. The xbox 360 has moved twice as many units
The xbox was a distant second (perhaps 3rd depending on when nintendo stoped counting) selling 25m units vs 150m units of the ps2. Right now the xbox 360 is only 25m units behind
Xbox live has become a huge earner for them
Kinect has come out extremely strong for them also
Developer relations are extremely good for them meaning its alot easier to get more support at a console launch.
If anything next gen should be even better if they learn from the mistakes of this gen. RROD is something they need to avoid at all costs. Who knows how much more profitable they could be if they didn't have the 1b RROD fiasco.
As for BC . I think that sony and ms will keep the xboxlive /psn games BC but full releases will not be BC .
The RROD has been a feature,not a failure.
If they desing a not-rrod machine then the unit cost would go up by a few hundred $
Just tear down an xbox/ps3 from all rev.,and you will see the reason of the rrod,and the cost implications if they try to avoid it.
The best selling machine is the WII,which have 10 years old architecture.
After this to talk about any update is more than a joke.
And if we consider that the WII making money from the day 0 (and serious ammount of money,in the 50$/unit range),and the XB/PS burned a lot of money in that time (300-400$/unit ?,without dev. cost) then we can see the profile of the next gen.
Actualy the MS burned a big pile of money to bring to the marekt the xb1,so they have to make profit to offset that losses too.and it could be interesting if someone go throught the financial reports,just to know the profitability point for the whole xb project and only for the xb360 project.
the ps3 is the other value destroyer.
So,no one will make any console untill 2014-15,and even at that time the new console will be in the same range like the WII was in 2006.
After this to talk about any update is more than a joke.
And if we consider that the WII making money from the day 0 (and serious ammount of money,in the 50$/unit range),and the XB/PS burned a lot of money in that time (300-400$/unit ?,without dev. cost) then we can see the profile of the next gen.
Actualy the MS burned a big pile of money to bring to the marekt the xb1,so they have to make profit to offset that losses too.and it could be interesting if someone go throught the financial reports,just to know the profitability point for the whole xb project and only for the xb360 project.
the ps3 is the other value destroyer.
So,no one will make any console untill 2014-15,and even at that time the new console will be in the same range like the WII was in 2006.
@bomlat
You're so wrong.
And what about 3rd party developers who's struggling on Wii? And what about hardcore gamers whose Wii is gathering dust?
Yeah, I can agree that there is HUGE market for Wii like machines, but its casual and its not pushing industry forward. Casual gamer buys maximum one game a year, hardcore gamer at least 5-6.
Industry needs hardcore gaming machines more than Wii like machines, its a fact.
Ps. And i'm pretty sure that this generation will last to 2013, not 2015 ;]
You're so wrong.
That's why PSP 2 is rumored to be graphical powerhouse for handhelds? :>
And what about 3rd party developers who's struggling on Wii? And what about hardcore gamers whose Wii is gathering dust?
Yeah, I can agree that there is HUGE market for Wii like machines, but its casual and its not pushing industry forward. Casual gamer buys maximum one game a year, hardcore gamer at least 5-6.
Industry needs hardcore gaming machines more than Wii like machines, its a fact.
Ps. And i'm pretty sure that this generation will last to 2013, not 2015 ;]
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You design a system from the oposite direction.
You want one magnitude higher capacity,so you start the system design from that side.
In the WII they started the process from the oposite direction,from the cost.
The result of the xb/ps3 design process was the cost/power consumption from the processing /graphics target starting point,the result of the WII process was the console design,inside the cost/user experience requirements "area".
So,I don't want to go into the details of the above config,but I'm sure about that it will be not on the 10* more powerfull category,so it will not make too much sense to "upgrade " the current consoles to that config.
corduroygt
Banned
And launch at $799?
PC's doesn't cost that much to manufacture. It may cost you to build on your own or for OEMs but it will not cost the same if you want to manufacture it. BOM to the manufacturer and cost to end users are different things. For instance that $300 CPU costs a fraction of that to intel to manufacture. Even today, 350-$400 would be enough to design a machine which is significantly more powerful than Xbox360/PS3 not to mention in 2013.
corduroygt
Banned
And why would Intel sell Sony/MS/Nintendo a $300 CPU for $50, when they're selling out every chip they can produce on the latest process node to PC makers at $300? The only area Intel is trying to gain x86 marketshare is in mobile devices.
aaronspink
Veteran
When will people learn that the Wii is immaterial to both Sony and MS and anyone else who wants to get into the console biz or for that matter, any dev that isn't nintendo or a nintendo subsidiary?
Wii isn't a console, it is merely as accessory required to play nintendo games.
Because Intel cannot sell those companies $300 CPU neither IBM. They have to find ways to make those CPUs for $50-80 like Xenon. There are lot's of cost cuttings involved but it is possible to manufacture a modern CPU for less. The point is you don't need to launch a console at $800 to be on par with a modern performance PC.
Well I can tlel you this much
phenom x 6 (forgot the speed i got my gf ) plus mobo plus 8 gigs of ram was $280. Radeon 6950 was $280 after rebate. $560 . You don't need an ssd for a console so you can put in a 2TB wd green drive for $100 . So your at $660 for a beast that would play batman aa at 5760x1080 with 4x fsaa and all settings maxed. Its a game that the current gen consoles can't even get at 720p with low settings and no fsaa.
All those costs are at retail mark up. The cpu is on a larger micron process than 28nm , the gpu is on 45nm instead of 28nm also.
Both chips would drop greatly in price
Megadrive1988
Veteran
Wii used a 12 year old architecture. GameCube's Flipper was designed in 1999 and the IBM G3 based Gekko CPU is even older.
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