Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[Squilliam]

Sony will use 3D capability to push sales of their 3DTVs the same way they used PS3 to push BluRay playback this gen. Microsoft will have to support 3DTV gaming as well.

Personally I hope 3D gaming becomes ubiquitous, that means that I can play all those 30 fps 3D titles at 60fps in 2D mode

Cheers

That may not be the case, unfortunately. A console built for 3D may only have a 5-20% overhead for actually displaying in 3D depending on the technique actually employed. At best you may get some extra AA because I doubt that the simulation side of the game would run any faster than the standard 30FPS.

 

[eastmen]

That may not be the case, unfortunately. A console built for 3D may only have a 5-20% overhead for actually displaying in 3D depending on the technique actually employed. At best you may get some extra AA because I doubt that the simulation side of the game would run any faster than the standard 30FPS.

Well I'm a MLAA believer after using it in a few games. So mabye next gen will be all about smarter techniques than brute force.

Mabye instead of needing regular fsaa they can move to MLAA and use the normal hit from 2x or 4x fsaa to feed 3D

however i don't see an install base big enough for them to really bother with 3D. I don't really even think 3D will be a buzz word by the time next gen consoles hit unless glasses free 3D becomes affordable

 

[Squilliam]

Well I'm a MLAA believer after using it in a few games. So mabye next gen will be all about smarter techniques than brute force.

Mabye instead of needing regular fsaa they can move to MLAA and use the normal hit from 2x or 4x fsaa to feed 3D

however i don't see an install base big enough for them to really bother with 3D. I don't really even think 3D will be a buzz word by the time next gen consoles hit unless glasses free 3D becomes affordable

Given the right investment in technology I doubt the hit to frame-rates would be significant at all. 3D is about working smarter, not harder like we see with the current 3D Nvision or whatever they call it forcing games to render at 120FPS or something ridiculous like that.

Even though the install base for HDTVs were small at the start of the generation there were very few games which failed to render at 720P. So even if the install base for 3D is very small at the start of the next generation I doubt that there will be very many games which would fail to render in 3D.

Whether it is 3D or different AA techniques, the general idea is to work smarter per pixel and not harder. MLAA is just one way to work smarter in terms of AA and I am pretty sure there will be many ways to render two distinct view points the simulation at the same time in a way which doesn't take twice the time to render. Crytek had the right idea with this, however I suspect the hardware itself will natively support the same kind of thinking.

 

[Rangers]

It's a handheld, but I thought it was interesting. Kotaku rumor that the PSP2 will rival the X360 in processing power, and include 1GB RAM. http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=411481

First of all I think it's another clue that greatly increasing processing power leaps are not dead for the next gen. At the very least this proves it for Sony.

And if you're getting 1GB RAM in a lowly handheld, bodes well for what we will see in the next consoles.

 

[Tahir2]

I am not a big fan of current 3D but prices are beginning to fall quite rapidly here in the UK. You can buy a 40" LED LCD with 3D and bluray player to complement it for £999 with 3 pairs of glasses. Also for sale is a 50" 1080p plasma again with glasses for £999 also. Both models are from Samsung.

I agree until the glasses go 3D is dead tech - it would help if there was more content too.

As to MLAA, if it can be perfected by 2012/13 imagine the savings for GPU die size if all the dedicated MSAA hardware blocks were removed.

 

[eastmen]

I am not a big fan of current 3D but prices are beginning to fall quite rapidly here in the UK. You can buy a 40" LED LCD with 3D and bluray player to complement it for £999 with 3 pairs of glasses. Also for sale is a 50" 1080p plasma again with glasses for £999 also. Both models are from Samsung.

I agree until the glasses go 3D is dead tech - it would help if there was more content too.

As to MLAA, if it can be perfected by 2012/13 imagine the savings for GPU die size if all the dedicated MSAA hardware blocks were removed.

I'm not sure what that is in usd. However my friend just got a 47 inch tv with 2 sets of glasses for $1200 . My other friend walked out with a 47 inch vizio for $950 with a two year warrenty.

The two year warrenty was worth another $200 bucks

The problem is , if my friend wanted us over for some 4 player move action he'd have to buy another 2 head sets. So thats either $200 or $300 more depending on if you get the nice ones with the battery built in or the clunky ones that take tripple a's .

The only hope for the current 3D tech is if they remove non 3d hds from market in the next year and you can only buy 3d sets even if glasses aren't sold with them

 

[eastmen]

It's a handheld, but I thought it was interesting. Kotaku rumor that the PSP2 will rival the X360 in processing power, and include 1GB RAM. http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=411481

First of all I think it's another clue that greatly increasing processing power leaps are not dead for the next gen. At the very least this proves it for Sony.

And if you're getting 1GB RAM in a lowly handheld, bodes well for what we will see in the next consoles.

as i said in another thread. The psp was able to put images on par with the ps2 on its screen in 2004 ... 5 years after the ps2 launched. So a handheld coming 5-6 years after the xbox should be able to do the same.

Also 4 gigs is dirt cheap now. its about $60-80 for 4 gigs on newegg depending on rebates and what speed your looking for.


As for performance. AMD's Zacate is able to run batman aa at 1024 x 768 at high quality settings its only 16fps however the console verisons do not run with all settings at high. So lowering those will bring it closer to the xbox 360s performance. This is a 2bobcat core and 1 cedar class gpu core.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

as i said in another thread. The psp was able to put images on par with the ps2 on its screen in 2004 ... 5 years after the ps2 launched. So a handheld coming 5-6 years after the xbox should be able to do the same.

I don't believe this. Sony was also able to shrink PS2 into PStwo in about 4 years. 360 went to S in similar timeframe, but the end result is vastly different. It still pushes out a lot of heat. PSP images are also not the same quality as PS2, but not that far apart either, so maybe the difference will be small enough?

 

[eastmen]

I don't believe this. Sony was also able to shrink PS2 into PStwo in about 4 years. 360 went to S in similar timeframe, but the end result is vastly different. It still pushes out a lot of heat. PSP images are also not the same quality as PS2, but not that far apart either, so maybe the difference will be small enough?

Well tech doesn't stand still . You can make smarter hardware and have diffrent better ways of doing things come about.

The xbox 360 has a gpu based on dx9 . mabye something based on open gl 3.0 will be much more efficent. After all dx 9 was released in 2002. its an 8 year old api.

Just look at current video cards. Ati had the 5870 and released the 6870 and it gets what 90% of the performance at slightly more than 70% of the transitor count ?

But regardless. Look at the amd cpu i pointed out. Anand was able to play with it and got very good performance out of it and its an 18w cpu with the gpu intergrated. Its not hard to believe that in 2011 or 12 (depending on when this launches) with sony targeting a lower res than 720p will be able to display graphics on par with the xbox 360. 2011/12 would get them 28 or 22nm process. Alot can be done on that vs the 90nm that the 360 and ps3 used.

Also simply having at least twice the texture space can give the apearance of better graphics.

I'm not as tech savy as alot of people on this thread. But the psp has games that look pretty darn close to the best of the ps2 games and i'm sure the budgets on the psp games are much lower than the big ps2 games. Considering a similar if not longer time frame between the xbox 360 to psp 2 vs the ps2 to the psp it should certianly be possible.

 

[Gubbi]

That may not be the case, unfortunately. A console built for 3D may only have a 5-20% overhead for actually displaying in 3D depending on the technique actually employed. At best you may get some extra AA because I doubt that the simulation side of the game would run any faster than the standard 30FPS.

Look at GT5 for PS3. Runs at 30 fps when in 3D mode.

If a game is limited by graphics, I'd expect to see around double the framerate for 2D, - pixel and vertex load, in generel, is halved.

Cheers

 

[Prophecy2k]

Look at GT5 for PS3. Runs at 30 fps when in 3D mode.

If a game is limited by graphics, I'd expect to see around double the framerate for 2D, - pixel and vertex load, in generel, is halved.

Cheers

But it isn't that clear cut... Polyphony might have been able to run the game in 3D at 45fps ave but with a few performance dips, so instead they chose to fix the framerate at 30fps to maintain even performance?... we simply don't know and trying to make that kind of inference is far to simplistic.

Anyway, it's already been said multiple times by multiple devs that you don't need double the performance to do 3D, otherwise KZ3 in 3D would be impossible.

 

[Gubbi]

But it isn't that clear cut... Polyphony might have been able to run the game in 3D at 45fps ave but with a few performance dips, so instead they chose to fix the framerate at 30fps to maintain even performance?... we simply don't know and trying to make that kind of inference is far to simplistic.

3D gaming needs vertical syncing. Otherwise you would have tearing for your left eye at one line on the screen and tearing for your right eye at another line, seriously compromising 3D perception.

Anyway, it's already been said multiple times by multiple devs that you don't need double the performance to do 3D, otherwise KZ3 in 3D would be impossible.

I'm perfectly aware of that, shadow maps for instance can probably be handled for both viewpoints in one pass given a little thought. Other than that all other passes are double up AFAICT.

I'll bet you a hundred bucks that framerate or resolution will be higher in 2D mode than in 3D mode in KZ3.

Cheers

 

[Prophecy2k]

I'll bet you a hundred bucks that framerate or resolution will be higher in 2D mode than in 3D mode in KZ3.

Cheers

No need to bet, we already know it is... plus that's not what i was arguing... For KZ3 2D mode is 720p... for 3D mode its sub-HD... but it's certainly not half the rendering resolution. That's the part of your prior performance-related assertion i was commenting on, i.e. you don't need exactly double the performance for 3D, hence you won't get twice the performance of 3D games when playing in 2D mode. ;-)

 

[Squilliam]

Look at GT5 for PS3. Runs at 30 fps when in 3D mode.

If a game is limited by graphics, I'd expect to see around double the framerate for 2D, - pixel and vertex load, in generel, is halved.

Cheers

Theres a significant difference between shoe horning 3D onto the current console render pipeline and designing a render pipeline which can cater to 3D. There are also significant shortcuts which can be undertaken as well. Consider Cryteks solution which barely moves the needle in terms of performance required to implement, there are other ways to skin this cat and a combination of hardware and software experience could cut the requirements significantly.

 

[function]

I don't see how you can rule out situations where up to double the fragment shading work may be required (for example a first person game where everything in the scene is close up).

Best case or average is one thing (especially in PC land), but worst case where you're aiming to be locked at 30 or 60 fps seems to be potentially far more troublesome.

 

[MarkoIt]

Anyone thought about a subscription model like dish /cable network?
Like this:
- Core Pack: online gaming + hardware for 10$ a month
- Gaming Pack: 1 full game + 2 XBLA/PSN game + one DLC / month: 20$ for month
- Hardcore Gaming Pack: 3 full game + 4 XBLA/PSN game + 2 DLC for month 30$ for month
- Entertainment Pack: Netflix, Facebook,Twitter, Pandora, Music 15$ for month

In this way there is no real need for gigantic, uber, power hungry console, because they can introduce new faster hardware when it became reasonably cheap. Probably this will happen at every new production process.

Example:

2013: Launch of Xbox 3 / PS4 -> performance 1x, production cost 200$
2014: Production cost covered, the subscription now make cash
2015: Launch of Xbox 4 / PS5 and replacement of old units-> peformance 2x, production cost 200$
2016: Production cost covered, the subscription now make cash
..
And so on...

Since there is no real next-gen, the production cost of the next generation game won't ramp up so quickly. Off course, the hardware must be really easy to code.

For a similar model, an APU is perfect. A 2013 APU@22nm, with 4 Bulldozer modules and a N.I derivate, could target 1 Teraflops easily (Llano is around 500 gigaflops), under 200$ and 100 W of TDP.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

In that model the new hardware needs to be able to run the old games, and new games presumably need to run on od hardware, unless you have a forced rollout of a a new device to every subscriber. If you're talking an open platform with scalable software, with new HW running the same games just at a higher resolution or quality, then you're talking PC. MS may as well just provide a Live! on PC service bundle for Windows games, useable via subscription like Steam. Job done.

 

[MarkoIt]

In that model the new hardware needs to be able to run the old games, and new games presumably need to run on od hardware, unless you have a forced rollout of a a new device to every subscriber. If you're talking an open platform with scalable software, with new HW running the same games just at a higher resolution or quality, then you're talking PC. MS may as well just provide a Live! on PC service bundle for Windows games, useable via subscription like Steam. Job done.

Yes, i was talking of a forced rollout and nope, no open platform. And yes, new hardware needs to able to run old games. It's possibile to keep the same architecture, and scale up just in performance, or to spend resources in software BC.

The point is not just to push faster hardware but new features. With the faster and faster pace technology is adopted, in the future it will be important to be able to have an updated, closed hardware in the living room of every house. PCs is too nerdish for the average user: drivers, graphic card, cpu, compatibility issue, and so on.
The last gen was 5-6 years long, the current one probably 7-8, the next one might be 10. This is way too much time to be competitive. A 10 years console might be outperformed by a smartphone..

 

[brain_stew]

as i said in another thread. The psp was able to put images on par with the ps2 on its screen in 2004 ... 5 years after the ps2 launched. So a handheld coming 5-6 years after the xbox should be able to do the same.

The PSP really wasn't on par with the PS2 at all though.It ran games with roughly half the complexity of PS2 games at 1/3 the resolution. It may have been "perceived" as a portable PS2, but it really wasn't.

More crucially, the PS2 wasn't anything remotely like a 100w device when the PSP launched.The 360 still is though, despite the fact that the PS2 wasn't even a 100w device at launch.

As for performance. AMD's Zacate is able to run batman aa at 1024 x 768 at high quality settings its only 16fps however the console verisons do not run with all settings at high. So lowering those will bring it closer to the xbox 360s performance. This is a 2bobcat core and 1 cedar class gpu core.

Zacate is an 18w chip. That's an order of magnitude more power hungry than what you can get away with in a portable console.

Anyway, it's already been said multiple times by multiple devs that you don't need double the performance to do 3D, otherwise KZ3 in 3D would be impossible.

Its impossible while maintaining anything even close to a HD resolution though. 640x720 is not an acceptable resolution for a game in 2010, but that's what GG have had to resort to in order to get KZ3 running in S3D.

No need to bet, we already know it is... plus that's not what i was arguing... For KZ3 2D mode is 720p... for 3D mode its sub-HD... but it's certainly not half the rendering resolution.

Actually, in the demos so far, it has been demonstrated inexactly half the rendering resolution

 

[liolio]

This is pretty funny, Fuad can see in the future and state the obvious
http://www.fudzilla.com/graphics/item/20744-next-gen-consoles-to-get-tessellation