Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[eastmen]

Same thing I do with my Spectrum tapes, Amiga disks, PC floppies, DOS CDs, VHS tapes, etc. I don't understand why so often forum-type gamers take a view of future console technology needing to last forever, with both hard copies of games that'll become forgotten, and BC for games that we've left behind!

Thats what I'm trying to point out. People allways ask what do you do if the service gos under and its hte same thing you do with all old game systems I have 6-7 year old games that I can still use on my steam acount. The only systems I know that were in production that long were the ps2 and ps3 .

 

[joker454]

I really have a hard time seeing people choosing DD over the optical format which they can:

- Bring to a friend's house and play
- Lend it to a friend
- Exchange it with a friend for another game
- Buy as a gift
- Sell it/Trade it in to get some of their money back

That's one reason to offer the dd version a day or two before the optical version. I bet some people chomping at the bit to get their new favorite game would go dd in those situations, and then peer pressure their friends to do the same. But how many would do that? The only way to know for sure is to try a full console gen like that.

Bringing games to a friends house is already do-able on xblive, just bring your memory device to your friends house and play all your dd content there, so that's been solved for ages now. But it doesn't allow trading content currently. That could be solved though if you can move your license to a usb thumb drive and bring the thumb drive to a friends house. So the operation could be to move Fallout license to thumb drive, so now the dd version of Fallout on your machine is no longer playable unless you have that thumb drive plugged in. Take that thumb drive to friends house. Friend has already downloaded the game but he can't play it because he isn't authorized to do so. You plug your thumb drive into his console, now he can play it. You can leave that thumb drive with the Fallout license there and take his thumb drive with the GTA license back home so you can play GTA at your house, ie, trading games. As a safety measure, make trading like that only work if you can connect to xblive to verify all licenses. No internet means can't play traded games. Currently you have your entire xblive account on your memory device (hdd, thumb drive, etc...) and that is what lets you play that dd content anywhere at anyone's house. They just need to extend that concept to let you move individual licenses that way. Truth be told I doubt they would try something like this just because of the piracy potential, but who knows.

Buying games as gifts is fairly easy in a dd only world, Steam already does this, you just need to know their account. Yeah it's not as easy as just buying a game and gift wrapping it to be sure, but it's possible.

As for selling dd games? Yeah you will be sol on that, but they want to kill the used game market so that's inevitable anyways.

For me personally, if the disc game is $60, DD version needs to be $30 or less to make up for its disadvantages, or I'll buy the disc version every time, not to mention that I never pay $60 for a brand new game on release day, it's between $50-$55 thanks to online retailers. DD hasn't been proven to work for expensive stuff such as full-price games. It works for $1 songs and $10 arcade games, but anything more than that and people gravitate towards tangible, physical products with resale value.

I'm kind of the same way, I buy tons of games and only do so because I knew I could resell them once I was done with them. My buying habits will change dramatically in a dd only world, I will more than likely buy far less. Ultimately the only way to determine peoples habits are to try a full optical/dd hybrid setup, all games on both and not something half assed, and try it that way for the entire gen. Then they will know if they can make the transition completely or if they need to cling to optical for longer.

Im primarily a pc gamer and anymore I typically choose DD over disk.

PC has some advantages though currently. I pre-ordered Fallout New Vegas on steam for example at full price, something I rarely do with dd because of the inability to re-sell it. But with steam cloud support for that game I can easily play it on all my pc hardware. So I'll install it on my office pc, media room pc and laptop. Steam cloud will make sure my save game automatically transitions everywhere so I'm good to go. That kind of simplicity and convenience makes it worth going with the dd version.

 

[corduroygt]

That's one reason to offer the dd version a day or two before the optical version. I bet some people chomping at the bit to get their new favorite game would go dd in those situations, and then peer pressure their friends to do the same. But how many would do that? The only way to know for sure is to try a full console gen like that.

I don't think if releasing a couple days early would make much difference, plus some stores might me more "inclined" to break the street date if this happens. A more viable strategy for a DD game, such as fallout would be to promise free DLC with the DD edition, similar to selling the GOTY version from day 1, with all DLC's to be free.

Bringing games to a friends house could be solved if you can move your license to a usb thumb drive and bring the thumb drive to a friends house. So the operation could be to move Fallout license to thumb drive, so now the dd version of Fallout on your machine is no longer playable unless you have that thumb drive plugged in. Take that thumb drive to friends house. Friend has already downloaded the game but he can't play it because he isn't authorized to do so. You plug your thumb drive into his console, now he can play it. You can leave that thumb drive with the Fallout license there and take his thumb drive with the GTA license back home so you can play GTA at your house, ie, trading games. As a safety measure, make trading like that only work if you can connect to xblive to verify all licenses. No internet means can't play traded games. No clue if they would get that elaborate since that also of course opens them to hacking, but something like that would let people trade games or bring games to a friends house all in a dd only world. You basically can do that already on xblive anyways, just bring your memory device to a friends house and you can play all your stuff there, although no trading.

That's a very complicated solution (your friend not only has to have internet, they have to download 20+ GB of games to their hard drive) to a simple problem that doesn't exist today. It's far less convenient for most people than simply carrying a disc.

Ultimately the only way to determine peoples habits are to try a full optical/dd hybrid setup, all games on both and not something half assed, and try it that way for the entire gen. Then they will know if they can make the transition completely or if they need to cling to optical for longer.

If you, me and millions of others do the same and change their buying habits, studios will suffer, so maybe they'll see the light and allow sales/trades. We have full games available on both XBL and PSN, they're $30 or less "Greatest Hits" types of games. We don't get sales numbers for them nor the used or Greatest Hits copies of games though. I still don't see the point of getting infamous on PSN for $30 when one could buy it for $20 or less on disc.

I'll install it on my office pc, media room pc and laptop. Steam cloud will make sure my save game automatically transitions everywhere so I'm good to go. That kind of simplicity and convenience is worth going with the dd version.

True, but unlike computers, people don't really have consoles in their office or carry one with them for the most part, so that convenience is a little wasted. There's also no technical reason to not have cloud saves with disc based games either. I'd expect XBL and PSN to add them either towards the end of this gen or next gen anyways.

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

Thats what I'm trying to point out. People allways ask what do you do if the service gos under and its hte same thing you do with all old game systems I have 6-7 year old games that I can still use on my steam acount. The only systems I know that were in production that long were the ps2 and ps3 .

You forgot the NES! Nintendo kept the NES in production for like 20 years.

 

[joker454]

I don't think if releasing a couple days early would make much difference, plus some stores might me more "inclined" to break the street date if this happens. A more viable strategy for a DD game, such as fallout would be to promise free DLC with the DD edition, similar to selling the GOTY version from day 1, with all DLC's to be free.

Yeah they could break the street date, the hybrid dd/optical setup would allow for that. But unless there is mass street date breakage then the idea could still work. Usually it's just a few places that violate street dates anyways.

That's a very complicated solution (your friend not only has to have internet, they have to download 20+ GB of games to their hard drive) to a simple problem that doesn't exist today. It's far less convenient for most people than simply carrying a disc.

It's not that bad. Move file to thumb drive, take thumb drive to friends house. Thumb drive fits in your pocket which is more convenient that carrying discs as well. Downloading games won't be a big deal, just let them download overnight the day before.

If you, me and millions of others do the same and change their buying habits, studios will suffer, so maybe they'll see the light and allow sales/trades. We have full games available on both XBL and PSN, they're $30 or less "Greatest Hits" types of games. We don't get sales numbers for them nor the used or Greatest Hits copies of games though. I still don't see the point of getting infamous on PSN for $30 when one could buy it for $20 or less on disc.

They may suffer...or they may make more money, it's hard to predict. Look at the numbers this way:

1) Currently I buy a game, say at full price of $60
2) I always sell my games, so that same game goes to a buyer #2.

So to the publisher, they only got $60 from two buyers because buyer #2 will always buy my used copy, from which the publisher makes nothing. How about in an all dd world? Lets say worse case is this:

1) I buy a dd game, but I wait untill it's half off at $30 to buy.
2) Buyer #2 can't buy it used for cheap from me so he also waits for a half off sale and buys it for $30.

Publisher still made the same amount, $60. But they actually made more since there was no shipping and packaged goods to deal with. Less piracy means less losses as well. Additionally they won't lose any future sales since the dd version can't be resold, whereas the optical dics could be sold 10 times for all they know. Sure my numbers are skewed to make a point, and some people will wait for $20 before buy, but then again others will buy at $40. So I really don't know if they would necessarily make less money in an all dd world.

True, but unlike computers, people don't really have consoles in their office or carry one with them for the most part, so that convenience is a little wasted. There's also no technical reason to not have cloud saves with disc based games either. I'd expect XBL and PSN to add them either towards the end of this gen or next gen anyways.

They do have families though, so one dd copy that worked in the entire household could be cool. Plus with consoles wanting to become media hubs, I figure it will be inevitable where households start to have more than one console. Remember years ago the concept of more than one computer in a household was considered insane. Now it's fairly normal. I think consoles will get to that point as well.

Yeah I'm sure cloud saves will be mandatory next gen. It's so damn convenient!

 

[eastmen]

I do not think people here are a good sample of the general public who buys games, not to mention I'm sure some people here are just saying they'd buy DD for the sake of argument. I'm sure when it actually comes down to getting God Of War 3 from Amazon for $56 and then selling it to your coworker for $40 two weeks later vs. buying it DD only, and downloading 35GB of data for $60, most people would choose the first route. That's what I did, and if the game was available on DD, it wouldn't have mattered to me.

I never wanted to buy DD games. I hated that half life 2 tied to steam and I largely ignored steam for the next few years. But around 2008 I started buying at the sales and now i love steam. Its just so much easier than going to the store and I notice how much time is wasted by going to th estores for my console stuff vs buying dd and now i hate physical copys. They waste room. I'm ripping all my dvds to put into storage and to keep on my network. I'm going to gain alot of space in my apartment because of it .

That's the same point I'm making. Burnout Paradise is what 15-20$ used on gamestop, and it's a game you're unlikely to be able to sell, so it makes sense to buy DD. Buying Black ops DD only at release for $60, does not, since those games still hold their resale value well until the next COD comes out. People do not buy high priced games DD only in significant numbers.

Some people will look at COD and say hmm I buy it at $60 bucks and I invest another $30 in dlc. Thats $90 bucks. But I will play it for 12 months until the next one comes out. To some its worth keeping past that. The dlc you can never recoup and ths selling it for $10 bucks at gamestop towards the new game.

 

[corduroygt]

They may suffer...or they may make more money, it's hard to predict. Look at the numbers this way:

1) Currently I buy a game, say at full price of $60
2) I always sell my games, so that same game goes to a buyer #2.

So to the publisher, they only got $60 from two buyers because buyer #2 will always buy my used copy, from which the publisher makes nothing. How about in an all dd world? Lets say worse case is this:

1) I buy a dd game, but I wait untill it's half off at $30 to buy.
2) Buyer #2 can't buy it used for cheap from me so he also waits for a half off sale and buys it for $30.

Publisher still made the same amount, $60. But they actually made more since there was no shipping and packaged goods to deal with. Less piracy means less losses as well. Additionally they won't lose any future sales since the dd version can't be resold, whereas the optical dics could be sold 10 times for all they know. Sure my numbers are skewed to make a point, and some people will wait for $20 before buy, but then again others will buy at $40. So I really don't know if they would necessarily make less money in an all dd world.

I see your point, but you're assuming that the pool of DD only consumers with fast internet + no quotas in a couple years will be as large as the pool of console consumers of today. Given that internet infrastructure advances extremely slowly that's unlikely. Don't forget that only half of 360's are ever connected to the internet. Unlike PC's and smartphones, which people buy for the purpose of getting on the internet and/or communicating with each other, people buy consoles for the purpose of playing games.

 

[DuckThor Evil]

I've entertained this notion before, but what about a portable home console hybrid? Wii shows a generation behind in rendering tech doesn't mean the death of your system as long as you can appeal in other ways. So how's about a WinPad portable computer that can output via HDMI to your TV and be controlled by Kinect and wireless controllers, and the touchscreen used to interface with TV games like a giant DS! It'd be a system that concedes the high-power console space but offers greater flexibility (a touch-pad computer in addition to games console) and chic.

http://www.develop-online.net/news/36015/Epic-boss-sees-next-gen-consoles-going-mobile

Imagine a future Xbox 360 that is actually a tablet you carry around,” said Mark Rein in a new interview with Develop

You convinced Mark Rein or... you are him!!1! :smile:

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Is there anything he's suggested there that I didn't say first?! I think it's a pretty clear vision of a desirable future. May not be the most powerful tech possible, but it'd be classy, like the iPad, and the flexibility would be huge. I think Joe Public, a more savvy tech consumer these days, would pick an iPad console over a fixed-location box.

I guess we'll see in PSP2 if Sony are courting this idea. I'd expect something scalable in design to a PS4 is so.

 

[MarkoIt]

http://www.develop-online.net/news/36015/Epic-boss-sees-next-gen-consoles-going-mobile



You convinced Mark Rein or... you are him!!1! :smile:

For that, 2013 is too soon. I can see mobile chips becoming faster that Xbox360, by 2013, but it will be a little step forward, and 1080p gaming won't run on them.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

For that, 2013 is too soon. I can see mobile chips becoming faster that Xbox360, by 2013, but it will be a little step forward, and 1080p gaming won't run on them.

Yes, but the question is if the market at large would rather have super-duper 1080p visuals, or okay 720p visuals in a slick, portable, ultraflexible iPad-like package. I think the Masses would prefer the latter, if it could be executed well enough.

 

[liolio]

I don't get his point especially as I think he thinks quiet ahead of our times as even using 28nm process I'm not sure portable devices will manage to outdo ps360 in the graphic department while offering a decent battery life.

In the long run I think the best bet for gaming is commodity hardware:
Commodity PC
commodity tablets
commodity smart-phones.

Once this device have "enough" power they will become commodity parts, market will consolidate and there will be less actors. It's the best thing to happen for gaming.
People don't like the idea of discrete GPUs disappearing, mostly because of performances concerns I think it's a good thing. I would enjoy to play some games with my wife, point is neither of our computers are up to the task, I may upgrade my computer she won't even consider it (it's R705 toshiba laptop she won't trade battery life for perfs). Integrated graphics are getting better and better they are really a key part in exploiting the potential biggest market for gaming every body pc.
The same will be true in the tablet/Smartphone space, the market will be huge as soon as the park will be less heterogeneous.

What Rein describes is as next gen consoles are basically tablet. Actually I read more like nextgen system will no longer be console but tablets. If tablets achieve that they are also likely to overtake commodity PC in the personal space. Basically you have a tablet, cloud applications (google doc, office online, music/video streaming), you can connect wireless controllers, cameras, keyboard, displays, printer do what ever you want.
May be tablet are epitome of commodity PC, the computer in its most refined form, only the display.

Anyway I don't think those devices will be enough to pack enough power by the time next consoles launch. @16nm it's another story

 

[MarkoIt]

I don't get his point especially as I think he thinks quiet ahead of our times as even using 28nm process I'm not sure portable devices will manage to outdo ps360 in the graphic department while offering a decent battery life.

In the long run I think the best bet for gaming is commodity hardware:
Commodity PC
commodity tablets
commodity smart-phones.

Once this device have "enough" power they will become commodity parts, market will consolidate and there will be less actors. It's the best thing to happen for gaming.
People don't like the idea of discrete GPUs disappearing, mostly because of performances concerns I think it's a good thing. I would enjoy to play some games with my wife, point is neither of our computers are up to the task, I may upgrade my computer she won't even consider it (it's R705 toshiba laptop she won't trade battery life for perfs). Integrated graphics are getting better and better they are really a key part in exploiting the potential biggest market for gaming every body pc.
The same will be true in the tablet/Smartphone space, the market will be huge as soon as the park will be less heterogeneous.

What Rein describes is as next gen consoles are basically tablet. Actually I read more like nextgen system will no longer be console but tablets. If tablets achieve that they are also likely to overtake commodity PC in the personal space. Basically you have a tablet, cloud applications (google doc, office online, music/video streaming), you can connect wireless controllers, cameras, keyboard, displays, printer do what ever you want.
May be tablet are epitome of commodity PC, the computer in its most refined form, only the display.

Anyway I don't think those devices will be enough to pack enough power by the time next consoles launch. @16nm it's another story

That will be a more evolved form of casual gaming. Many people will be happy with it, but many won't. Call of Duty, Halo, GTA are selling tens of million of copies, because there is still the need for immersion in a different reality. In the future, controllers will evolved in such a matter that probably we will feel to be into the game, but also graphics has to evolve at the same pace. It may seems that we have reach a good enough level of graphic.. not far from photorealistic. But we are so far from it.
In the future we will have both mobile/casual gaming AND hardcore/immersive gaming.

 

[liolio]

That will be a more evolved form of casual gaming. Many people will be happy with it, but many won't. Call of Duty, Halo, GTA are selling tens of million of copies, because there is still the need for immersion in a different reality. In the future, controllers will evolved in such a matter that probably we will feel to be into the game, but also graphics has to evolve at the same pace. It may seems that we have reach a good enough level of graphic.. not far from photorealistic. But we are so far from it.
In the future we will have both mobile/casual gaming AND hardcore/immersion gaming.

Hum, that's not what I said (or tried to), lower power devices doesn't necessarily implies casual gaming. "real" games are ported to smartphones / tablets , the trend is only to grow.
As for perfs I agree mobile devices won't get there (freeing user from PC completely) before maybe 5<x<10 years but that what I stated Rein thinks way ahead of our time.

As for graphics, it's you that think that graphics has to evolve at all cost. Many don't, I want the best graphics as possible but I no longer want bulky PC tower or systems as big as the ps360. I believe plenty of people are like me. So perfs have to improve I agree but on a sane basis in regard to power consumption (<100 Watts) sexy form factor, not at the cost of spliting completely an incredibily huge user base (speaking of PC here not consoles). Discrete GPUs (as well as way to sucky IGP to be fair, but it looks like things could turn out acceptable pretty soon) are a doom in this regard.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I don't get his point especially as I think he thinks quiet ahead of our times as even using 28nm process I'm not sure portable devices will manage to outdo ps360 in the graphic department while offering a decent battery life.

They don't have to offer that level of performance from batteries. They can scale back for mobile gaming and apps. And let's be honest, you're not likely to be playing Gears 4 on the train! more likely you'll play Gears Tower Defense on the train, and Gears proper with a controller when you get home. Once next to a power outlet, you can run off mains and use the full system power.

Also there's a small hope we'll see a more advanced power solution, such as the polymer batteries used to make the case, allowing for bigger batteries overall. But that's still beside the point. The key aspect is flexibility, adapting to different usage environments, and not a portable home console.

 

[MfA]

Even powerful silicon is relatively small, so if most of it's turned off running it off batteries inside a mobile device should certainly be possible.

Once the real juice starts flowing in living room use cooling becomes a problem though, you won't be able to get rid of it inside the tablet. Making a high conductivity thermal connection to a docking bay would be pretty hard ... a water loop could do it, but making that kind of connection fool proof isn't easy.

 

[corduroygt]

The tablet component should be optional, since it will add at least $200 to the cost of the console, with the touchscreen, battery, and its own processors.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Even powerful silicon is relatively small, so if most of it's turned off running it off batteries inside a mobile device should certainly be possible.

Once the real juice starts flowing in living room use cooling becomes a problem though, you won't be able to get rid of it inside the tablet. Making a high conductivity thermal connection to a docking bay would be pretty hard ... a water loop could do it, but making that kind of connection fool proof isn't easy.

That's true. Probably the real bottleneck for a small device.

 

[Rangers]

Yes, but the question is if the market at large would rather have super-duper 1080p visuals, or okay 720p visuals in a slick, portable, ultraflexible iPad-like package. I think the Masses would prefer the latter, if it could be executed well enough.

Would you prefer Sony go that way with PS4? I know you tend to prefer Sony games and such, so I have to wonder if that's honestly the way you would like to play your favorite Sony console experiences? So far you have stated it only as a good idea for 360's successor, and I'm just wondering if you would be so keen on the tablet-console idea for PS4, in other words would you take your own medicine .

Personally I would prefer a next gen just like this one.

The mobile thing is interesting, but again it seems to me best attempted by a company without a preexisting gaming legacy to uphold. And once again I'm thinking of Apple. Just as I think a download only console can only come from Apple.

I'm just not sure such a machine could gain any headway with hardcore.

Myself, I dont "get" the thirst for mobile so much. It's probably obvious from my number of posts that I'm a shut in But really, when I play games I happen to be at home, "mobile" gaming has little use for me, even as the world supposedly moves that way. When I'm not at home, I'm doing something and I dont really want to play a game. Even besides that the experience is far inferior.

Of course I also am on record that the PSP2 slider-phone thing would be awesome, so I dunno But if mobile gaming is anywhere, I think it's natural endpoint is on your phone.

It is kind of interesting that because this gen is stretching on so much longer than previous, phones very well could surpass consoles in power. I imagine we'll see 1GB phones soon, and RAM is half the battle alone.

On Android at least though, there's no games at all that comes close to tapping the power that is there. The situation may be slightly better at Apple, but only in a couple of instances. So before mobile surpasses current gen, you'll have to see a major change in that area. I have a Captivate with supposedly one of the best GPU's out there in a phone, and what does it gain me in gaming really? Nothing. It's not like there's any game designed to stress it.

PS: I'll have some of whatever Rein is smoking lol. So it's not only a pad it's also kinect built in, somehow? And your phone is going to be the controller? I think Mark was smoking some good stuff.

“Imagine walking into a bar with some friends, propping it up on the table and playing games like Dance Central or Kinect Adventures anywhere you go. Then when you get home that same device will use technology like AirPlay or wireless HDMI to connect to your big screen, you’ll pick up a wireless controller, or use your phone as controller to play games like Gears of War.”

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Would you prefer Sony go that way with PS4? I know you tend to prefer Sony games and such, so I have to wonder if that's honestly the way you would like to play your favorite Sony console experiences? So far you have stated it only as a good idea for 360's successor, and I'm just wondering if you would be so keen on the tablet-console idea for PS4, in other words would you take your own medicine .

It's an open concept and I didn't mean to suggest it to only one company. If one company goes this route and the others don't, I imagine the company with the Nintenbox PlayPad will win the sales race.

My own preference..hmmmm... I like performance tech. The ultimate goal would be hardware so powerful you don't have to care about efficiencies to get the desired results, meaning development is all about content and design, and not clever coding. That's a long way off. I guess it depends what we'd gain in a full box versus what the pad can deliver. TBH I find myself playing download titles mostly! This gen with added AA doesn't look bad. Chuck in a load more RAM and you'd have a machine that won't be eyewatering in the same old tech does now, with it's 320x256 pixel outputs if you're lucky! If the pad was full-featured and supremely crafted, it would be desirable. I imagine I'd go with the tablet if it was created to my specs and not some lacklustre, half-hearted effort that doesn't work the way it should!

I suppose my ideal would be a scalable hardware architecture that allows the same code to run on both a console and a tablet, allwoing a hardcore machine and a Lite version for portability, for the best of both worlds. Sell the tablet as an accessory (PlayStation Tablet) alongside the console (PS4), and you'd have a winning, but expensive!, combination.

Myself, I dont "get" the thirst for mobile so much. It's probably obvious from my number of posts that I'm a shut in But really, when I play games I happen to be at home, "mobile" gaming has little use for me, even as the world supposedly moves that way. [/QUOTE]I don't care for mobile gaming. I'm happy to sit and think when travelling. However, I like portability. I move my PS3 from upstairs to down, and we copy save games to play on different friends' PS3s. Take it on holiday to watch your movie library on the TV, and invite friends you meet there to play your party games. If I could run my own apps as well, it'd be a definite one-machine solution. You could take it to parties to play, read books with it...well, you've seen the Apple ads! But also connect it up to your TV and get a console experience with controllers; you wouldn't be limited to a tablet experience.

Basically, think portable PC + console with mobile functionality, useful everywhere.

PS: I'll have some of whatever Rein is smoking lol. So it's not only a pad it's also kinect built in, somehow? And your phone is going to be the controller? I think Mark was smoking some good stuff.

Tablet and netbooks already have cameras. Stick a second camera next door and an IR diode, you have Kinect embedded. If you were really cunning, you'd have the second camera switchable between IR and optical, and enable 3D photos too!