Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[Shifty Geezer]

Seriously though, it just seems like a dead end conversation.

One would hope a lot of conversations are dead-ended, as they reach consensus. A conversation that doesn't come to an end will be circular, or consist of two or more parties who cannot agree and decide to just leave it there - I guess an incomplete road as the metaphor.

Though as tongue_of_colicab amply demonstrates, there are few opinions in this life that won't have someone, somewhere, presenting an argument against!

Myself, i think DD will feature prominently but as an option next gen for all the reasons so far described herein. Some console owners want DD; the industry likely wants DD; we are seeing more DD with larger download titles on Live! and PSN and even disc-based games like LBP getting download versions; but the infrastructure isn't there. The question that raises is if we'll see a console SKU that is DD only sans optical drive at reduced price for those who have a suitable network connection, or will the drive still be required in every SKU? Would it be worth leaving out 20 bucks worth of optical drive and having the issues of more inventory and production complexity?

 

[upnorthsox]

Personally I wouldn't take the iPhone as a example for why DD only would work as games that only cost a few bucks and are only a couple of mb large isn't the same as a full price multi gb game. Steam would be a much better example.

What's the avg age of a Steam user? How many are there?

 

[upnorthsox]

What's the avg age of a Steam user? How many are there?

Also, how do you connect to Steam? PC? Does that have an optical drive? Is Steam the only available option? Or is there still boxed retail? What if Steam goes under, then what? What if Steam corners the market and is the only buying option, then what? What if my PC crashes? What if I move? What if I prefer dish over cable? What if cable is not an option?

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

Uhh you do know most of your questions don't matter or also apply for the iPhone?

Why is the average age important? Do you know the average iPhone user age?
How do you connect? telepathic... Who cares if you got a disk drive or not?
Steam the only option? Again, why does it matter?
What if steam goes under? What if apple goes under?
What if your pc crashes? Nobody cares as your games are all account bound.
etc

I don't get what you are trying to say.

 

[eastmen]

Uhh you do know most of your questions don't matter or also apply for the iPhone?

Why is the average age important? Do you know the average iPhone user age?
How do you connect? telepathic... Who cares if you got a disk drive or not?
Steam the only option? Again, why does it matter?
What if steam goes under? What if apple goes under?
What if your pc crashes? Nobody cares as your games are all account bound.
etc

I don't get what you are trying to say.

Not only that but steam has been around for 7 years now. Its getting to a point of age where one should respond well what happens when your ps3 dies and sony no longer makes more . What do you do with all your newly found coasters.

 

[Toaddio]

The question that raises is if we'll see a console SKU that is DD only sans optical drive at reduced price for those who have a suitable network connection, or will the drive still be required in every SKU? Would it be worth leaving out 20 bucks worth of optical drive and having the issues of more inventory and production complexity?

Is it worth the QA, R&D and testing at the hardware and software level to have two different pieces of hardware? A high end piece could work, but then a console maker would have to make sure all software were available online as well as in stores. If you do that, stocking physical media becomes even more difficult. If you don't put all the media online then you have other problems.

 

[upnorthsox]

Uhh you do know most of your questions don't matter or also apply for the iPhone?

Why is the average age important? Do you know the average iPhone user age?
How do you connect? telepathic... Who cares if you got a disk drive or not?
Steam the only option? Again, why does it matter?
What if steam goes under? What if apple goes under?
What if your pc crashes? Nobody cares as your games are all account bound.
etc

I don't get what you are trying to say.

iPhone? who gives a rats f#$k about the iPhone. The discussion ad nauseum has been about DD only. The rest of your answers appear to be
I don't know
I don't know
I don't know
I don't know
I don't know

Thank you for your input.

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

Than explain to me because I don't understand what you are trying to say.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Not only that but steam has been around for 7 years now. Its getting to a point of age where one should respond well what happens when your ps3 dies and sony no longer makes more . What do you do with all your newly found coasters.

Same thing I do with my Spectrum tapes, Amiga disks, PC floppies, DOS CDs, VHS tapes, etc. I don't understand why so often forum-type gamers take a view of future console technology needing to last forever, with both hard copies of games that'll become forgotten, and BC for games that we've left behind!

 

[upnorthsox]

Than explain to me because I don't understand what you are trying to say.

In general I was in agreement with you but I still have questions about Steam and its use as an affirmative example for consoles going forward with a DD only business model. What the avg age? Honest ??? as I don't know, however if it's say 21-22 then that's a completely different demographic than a console with an avg 14-15. It not just buying power but decision power such as what kind of internet access if any you'll have where you live. How many users? Again I don't know the answer so an honest question. Is it a couple million? Less? More? Compared to the 150-200 million console owners it should be alot more for a fair comparison as just logistics become a huge factor.

The rest of my questions weren't directed at anyone really but are questions I, and I suspect many others, would want answered before jumping into DD only. On those, Steam may or may not be relevant, but sinced it's always brought up as THE example I personified them.

 

[tongue_of_colicab]

Now I understand

I don't have the anwsers to all those questions but I feel they do not matter that much. I don't see age as a problem. Internet is something ''everybody'' has these days. Certainly in the world of the console buying public. I don't have a clue what the average speeds are across the world but I guess in most places something of a 4mbit line is available for acceptable prices?

Thinking in terms of age methods of payment would be far more interresting as children usually only have cash available. Than again, that could easily be solved by allowing games to be bought for wiipoints, gamerpoints etc. Ofcourse than you would need to go to the store to buy those cards so that kinda ruins the argument of downloading as than you might as well get the game at the stores but anyway.

I don't know the total amount of people using steam but you can check how many people are logged on and that generally seems to be about 2.5million. I'm sure steam is a viable platform with more than enough users. I don't think logistics will be such a big issue. We both agree that the next gen won't be DD only so capacity probably won't be a big problem. Assuming you can download full games next gen I think saying 50% would make use of it is already seeing it very positive. In that case it Sony and MS would each have had about 5 years to provide services for about 20million users.

 

[joker454]

We already have a few full-game downloads, so having them next gen seems a given! How much of the library is made available will be the big question mark.

I think they will do both, basically offer most games on both disc and dd on same day and date, perhaps even offer the dd version a day or two before to entice people to go with that one. It's the best of both worlds, and at the end of the next gen they will have enough data to let them know if they can forgo the optical drive for the gen after that.

 

[RobertR1]

60 retail. 50 DD day one would be great. I know it won't happen and they will still want $60 for DD version but hey, I can dream!

 

[corduroygt]

I think they will do both, basically offer most games on both disc and dd on same day and date, perhaps even offer the dd version a day or two before to entice people to go with that one. It's the best of both worlds, and at the end of the next gen they will have enough data to let them know if they can forgo the optical drive for the gen after that.

I really have a hard time seeing people choosing DD over the optical format which they can:

- Bring to a friend's house and play
- Lend it to a friend
- Exchange it with a friend for another game
- Buy as a gift
- Sell it/Trade it in to get some of their money back

For me personally, if the disc game is $60, DD version needs to be $30 or less to make up for its disadvantages, or I'll buy the disc version every time, not to mention that I never pay $60 for a brand new game on release day, it's between $50-$55 thanks to online retailers. DD hasn't been proven to work for expensive stuff such as full-price games. It works for $1 songs and $10 arcade games, but anything more than that and people gravitate towards tangible, physical products with resale value.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

In general I was in agreement with you but I still have questions about Steam and its use as an affirmative example for consoles going forward with a DD only business model. What the avg age? Honest ??? as I don't know, however if it's say 21-22 then that's a completely different demographic than a console with an avg 14-15.

Average console age is over 30 I believe these days (there have been a couple of marker research efforts reported over the years). Gaming has been around for 30+ years, and I don't think it's something you grow out of, so every kid gamer from yesteryear is an adult now.

I really have a hard time seeing people choosing DD over the optical format which they can:

But you have examples of people here who'd choose DD over disc! So even if it's not something you can relate to, it's still something that some people will chose in some cases.

 

[dragonelite]

If the digital download is in Microsoft or Sony hands no thanks if retailers can sell codes or something more reliable then yes.

I was a big pro digital download guy before i discover internet games retailer(didn't really trusted them). The competition between them keep the prices low for optical formats. I can get retail games day one for 45 euro online instead of 65 euro when going to a normal retailer.

 

[woundingchaney]

Im primarily a pc gamer and anymore I typically choose DD over disk. Steam has grown into an extremely stable and competent interface not only for game sales and storage, but for social gaming as well. Honestly, Steam for the most part is the hands down best online infrastructure available. The only thing they really lack is a movie rental/sales option.

Ultimately throwing "what if" scenarios at the situation really isnt helping anything.

 

[MfA]

I really have a hard time seeing people choosing DD over the optical format which they can:

- Bring to a friend's house and play
- Lend it to a friend
- Exchange it with a friend for another game

Optical drives won't go away, but one time DLCs locked to a gamer account will almost certainly be universal by next gen ... even with optical you are going to lose some of these options to some extent.

 

[Rolf N]

I really have a hard time seeing people choosing DD over the optical format which they can:

- Bring to a friend's house and play
- Lend it to a friend
- Exchange it with a friend for another game
- Buy as a gift
- Sell it/Trade it in to get some of their money back

For me personally, if the disc game is $60, DD version needs to be $30 or less to make up for its disadvantages, or I'll buy the disc version every time, not to mention that I never pay $60 for a brand new game on release day, it's between $50-$55 thanks to online retailers. DD hasn't been proven to work for expensive stuff such as full-price games. It works for $1 songs and $10 arcade games, but anything more than that and people gravitate towards tangible, physical products with resale value.

You're describing a younger gamer ... who buys at full price exclusively?

My game purchasing habits have certainly changed this gen. I now buy most games a few months after launch for cheap (15~30€ range w/ shipping). When I feel I no longer will play them, I sell them off, usually at around a 5~15€ loss.

The thing is, selling used games is a bit of a hassle. I'd be willing to part with let's say 3 or 4€ a pop to not have to stand ready all week, ready to prepare the labels and drive down to the post office (I send recorded letters exclusively). It works out that in some cases a 15€ game (w/o shipping fees) that I will never be able to sell back is the same effective "cost" to me as if I could.

Some games you just can't sell, even if you want to. R-Type Tactics, great game, don't get me wrong, but you can't sell it for even 3.89€. If you go lower, between Amazon fees, shipping fees, buying envelopes and gasoline, you're starting to pay extra, "recovering" a negative amount of money with your resale. The cheapest way to get it out of the house is to throw it in the trash, but I just can't bring myself to do it.

You can see how download versions get more and more attractive the lower the entry price goes. I wouldn't want to sit on 35€ of lost resale value for a recent blockbuster game I'm 100% done with. But there's a price threshold, and this is surely individual and subjective, where the physical copy stops making sense.

In practice I try to buy PSP games on PSN when they're 15$ or lower (I shop on the US PSN) as long as there's free space on my memory stick. UMDs I only buy for games not available on PSN, or if the price difference gets too big (>=20$).

I'd probably do the same for PS3 games, but they aren't available that way. I did buy Burnout Paradise as a PSN download (for 20$), and it was a great decision to do that.

 

[corduroygt]

But you have examples of people here who'd choose DD over disc! So even if it's not something you can relate to, it's still something that some people will chose in some cases.

I do not think people here are a good sample of the general public who buys games, not to mention I'm sure some people here are just saying they'd buy DD for the sake of argument. I'm sure when it actually comes down to getting God Of War 3 from Amazon for $56 and then selling it to your coworker for $40 two weeks later vs. buying it DD only, and downloading 35GB of data for $60, most people would choose the first route. That's what I did, and if the game was available on DD, it wouldn't have mattered to me.

You can see how download versions get more and more attractive the lower the entry price goes. I wouldn't want to sit on 35€ of lost resale value for a recent blockbuster game I'm 100% done with. But there's a price threshold, and this is surely individual and subjective, where the physical copy stops making sense.

In practice I try to buy PSP games on PSN when they're 15$ or lower (I shop on the US PSN) as long as there's free space on my memory stick. UMDs I only buy for games not available on PSN, or if the price difference gets too big (>=20$).

I'd probably do the same for PS3 games, but they aren't available that way. I did buy Burnout Paradise as a PSN download (for 20$), and it was a great decision to do that.

That's the same point I'm making. Burnout Paradise is what 15-20$ used on gamestop, and it's a game you're unlikely to be able to sell, so it makes sense to buy DD. Buying Black ops DD only at release for $60, does not, since those games still hold their resale value well until the next COD comes out. People do not buy high priced games DD only in significant numbers.