Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[Shifty Geezer]

MS will surely want movie support in their next box. They'll need an HD disc format, and going BRD adds movie playback, a valuable checklist feature. Yes, Ms will pay a lciense fee, but then other companies like Sony will be licensing MS's tech too, like Windows audio and, hopefully, NTFS.

 

[Squilliam]

MS will surely want movie support in their next box. They'll need an HD disc format, and going BRD adds movie playback, a valuable checklist feature. Yes, Ms will pay a lciense fee, but then other companies like Sony will be licensing MS's tech too, like Windows audio and, hopefully, NTFS.

Did the Wii need movie support?

Why wouldn't they simply make it an optional extra? So instead of losing $14 or so per console to support DVD/BR, why not sell it for $29 on the market place and potentially make $15 instead?

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Did the Wii need movie support?

Wii wasn't trying to be any form of media device. MS aren't going to drop support for DVDs or music playback, and it'd make no sense for them not support the HD movie format.

Why wouldn't they simply make it an optional extra? So instead of losing $14 or so per console to support DVD/BR, why not sell it for $29 on the market place and potentially make $15 instead?

Having a separate code is an option, but you risk a little confusion among the buying public.

 

[Rangers]

MS will surely want movie support in their next box. They'll need an HD disc format, and going BRD adds movie playback, a valuable checklist feature. Yes, Ms will pay a lciense fee, but then other companies like Sony will be licensing MS's tech too, like Windows audio and, hopefully, NTFS.

And Blu Ray isn't only Sony's tech. It's not even mostly Sony's tech, is it? I thought Panasonic or something was the largest patent holder in Blu Ray.

 

[TheWretched]

I don't get why the second hand market is such a problem for the publishers though. If we went DD only, Sony/MS could implement a marketplace for users akin to Ebay for selling their DD-only games for a fee... that way they could even profit on second and third and ALL other sales they have there.

And... current technology allows us to a) preload games before release (Steam does it), so a lower bandwidth won't result in delayed starts for users and b) Steam even allows for "play before download is finished" in some games... especially linear story driven games will have no problem to be structured that way and c) P2P technology can also easily be used here too. Blizzard does it for they (often huge) patches for WoW. Game downloads can be made fast easily AND cheap.

And if that is not enough, stores can still offer usb data transfer of games for a small fee or direct sale.

 

[tuna]

MS will surely want movie support in their next box. They'll need an HD disc format, and going BRD adds movie playback, a valuable checklist feature. Yes, Ms will pay a lciense fee, but then other companies like Sony will be licensing MS's tech too, like Windows audio and, hopefully, NTFS.

Why would they license NTFS?

 

[Gubbi]

MS will surely want movie support in their next box.

Why ? I had both the DVD remote kit for the PS 2 and XBox last gen. Between them I used it maybe ten times. In the same time frame (last ten years) I went through three stand alone DVD players.

PS 3 made a difference because it was the best BluRay player for the buck (until recently it was the best player outright), and as you've mentioned helped Sony win the format war.

But in 2-3 years people will be paying $100 for decent standalone Bluray players and disc-based movie playback will have no real significance for a console.

Online movie rental is going to do the same to physical movie media as online music did to the CD format.

On top of that Microsoft doesn't have the vertical business model Sony has, they don't own studios, distribution etc. They only have the end users, so the don't have the same incentive to push movie support the way Sony do.

I live in Denmark, and I would *love* to have NetFlix or something similar. I have rented everything worth watching on Zune, but it has two downsides: 1.) lack of titles (both new and back catalogue). 2.) lack of regionalization (subtitles).

My physical media player could then be relegated to playing the odd SACD that can't be replayed on anything else.

Now, some people will need a physical media, because they don't have access to the required internet connection, but a whole bunch of people don't. I could imagine two SKUs, one with a Bluray drive and 16 GB flash and one with just a 500GB 2½" drive.

What DD need to take off, is significantly lower prices than physical media. As long as I can buy games at 50-60% full price just three months after release. As well as take my games to my brothers house to play with my nephew, there is little incentive to buy it online.

Lower prices and a Steam like gift-a-game rebate (could be time-limitedI) would make it much more paletable.

Cheers

 

[eastmen]

MS will surely want movie support in their next box. They'll need an HD disc format, and going BRD adds movie playback, a valuable checklist feature. Yes, Ms will pay a lciense fee, but then other companies like Sony will be licensing MS's tech too, like Windows audio and, hopefully, NTFS.

It doesn't need bluray support.

2012 bluray players will be very cheap. You can aready get good bluray players for $100. I bought a sony for $180 and it had 3D support , netflix streaming and a host of other things.

I'm not convinced that you need an optical drive anymore . In fact I think if you try and move to a DD only service keeping around discs as a secondary means of selling games will kill DD before it even really starts. For an example see the psp GO

 

[Shifty Geezer]

2012 bluray players will be very cheap.

Next gen, if I want a console and to watch BRDs, I either buy a PS4 with all in one, or an XB720 plus the separate BRD player. PS4 has a cost advantage. Alternatively I already have a BRD player downstairs, but would like to watch BRDs upstairs sometimes, while also having a console I can move between locations - PS4 has a feature advantage.

I can understand not going with BRD movie playback if you don't have an optical drive, but if you're going to use BRD anyway (very likely) then it's ommission seems a trivial feature. Case in point - why does XB360 support DVD playback when it released into a market with dime-a-dozen DVD players and everyone already had a DVD player? It's a cheap and useful feature that adds value and helps the platform stay feature competitive. MS are not going to want to put side by side PS4 with both having optical disks but punters unable to put their BRD discs into 360 and have it play when they can with PS4. Joe Public will scratch their head and wonder why it doesn't work and think that's rubbish.

 

[Squilliam]

Wii wasn't trying to be any form of media device. MS aren't going to drop support for DVDs or music playback, and it'd make no sense for them not support the HD movie format.

Not supporting and not supporting out of the box are completely different things. Its yet another thing they can do to lower the price of their Arcade SKU and increase the value of their Elite/Premium option.

Having a separate code is an option, but you risk a little confusion among the buying public.

All the explanation they need would be available as soon as they stick a Blu Ray disc in.

A $9.50 per console charge just to play back movies which people may or may not use, on top of a separate $4-5 charge for legacy DVD movies is a lot of expenditure relative to a $299 purchase price.

If they charge separately the media playback it means that instead of costing say $275 for a launch Arcade SKU, it might only cost them $260 which is a very reasonable savings. It also means that the average revenue instead of being $280 (to retail) it might be $285. So thats the difference of $20 margin per unit average. Furthermore it would give them additional incentives to get people to splash out another $100 for the Premium SKU which has larger margins again.

 

[Rurouni]

I think the problem with download only besides the obvious thing that in some places where internet connection is not viable is that even in countries with fast internet, downloading a full BD/multi DVD games is a bit too much (fast, but not fast enough... data cap...).
The biggest difference between games download and movies download is that movies download is streaming... you can have instant gratification with it. Games download.. not so much.
If a next gen console want to have a download only sku, they should consider to try partial download approach, where the initial download is just enough to go trough the 1st stage and download the rest in the background... and probably for games with FMV, they could just stream the FMV portion without the need to store it in the local storage.

 

[eastmen]

Next gen, if I want a console and to watch BRDs, I either buy a PS4 with all in one, or an XB720 plus the separate BRD player. PS4 has a cost advantage. Alternatively I already have a BRD player downstairs, but would like to watch BRDs upstairs sometimes, while also having a console I can move between locations - PS4 has a feature advantage.

I can understand not going with BRD movie playback if you don't have an optical drive, but if you're going to use BRD anyway (very likely) then it's ommission seems a trivial feature. Case in point - why does XB360 support DVD playback when it released into a market with dime-a-dozen DVD players and everyone already had a DVD player? It's a cheap and useful feature that adds value and helps the platform stay feature competitive. MS are not going to want to put side by side PS4 with both having optical disks but punters unable to put their BRD discs into 360 and have it play when they can with PS4. Joe Public will scratch their head and wonder why it doesn't work and think that's rubbish.

I'm talking specificly about not having a bluray drive or optical drive at all.

I think xbox 360 has dvd support because the codecs needed for it are also needed for streaming from pcs , so if they are paying for it already itm ight as well have support.

Yes if the xbox next has no bluray drive and you need a bluray drive the ps4 might be the better option. But if you have an xbox 360 and wnat a bluray player you either have to spend $300 on the ps3 or get a $100 bluray player. So I don't know how many people wont have bluray players next generation esp since we have another 2 years or price dops on bluray players before then.

 

[specwarGP2]

Now that BD is the sole delivery vehicle for 3D movies, its going to be around for a while and MS will be forced to adopt it.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I'm talking specificly about not having a bluray drive or optical drive at all.

Optical is going to be needed. BRD seems the most sensible platform for that as it's already the common standard.

Yes if the xbox next has no bluray drive and you need a bluray drive the ps4 might be the better option. But if you have an xbox 360 and wnat a bluray player you either have to spend $300 on the ps3 or get a $100 bluray player. So I don't know how many people wont have bluray players next generation esp since we have another 2 years or price dops on bluray players before then.

I'm sure most HD people will have one BRD player by then, but how many of us have more than one DVD playing device that's used? Lots of people! DVD/BRD players, laptios, consoles, portable players. One is never enough! As I say, it's added value. If a BRD player costs $100, then having that in your console is a $100 feature, as it were. If you're going to have an Hd optical format, it's almost certain to be BRD, and if it is, then you may as well provide BRD playback for minimal effort.

 

[eastmen]

Now that BD is the sole delivery vehicle for 3D movies, its going to be around for a while and MS will be forced to adopt it.

when did this happen ? I don't see why DD can't deliever 3d movies. Cable/fios/sat also deliever 3d movies

Optical is going to be needed. BRD seems the most sensible platform for that as it's already the common standard.

I disagree with optical being needed.

I'm sure most HD people will have one BRD player by then, but how many of us have more than one DVD playing device that's used? Lots of people! DVD/BRD players, laptios, consoles, portable players. One is never enough! As I say, it's added value. If a BRD player costs $100, then having that in your console is a $100 feature, as it were. If you're going to have an Hd optical format, it's almost certain to be BRD, and if it is, then you may as well provide BRD playback for minimal effort.

It hasn't helped the ps3 this gen even when bluray players were $1000 and the ps3 was $500 the xbox 360 still out sold it. Very few people use their players for movie playback.

 

[Shifty Geezer]

I disagree with optical being needed.

What distribution method will you use?

It hasn't helped the ps3 this gen even when bluray players were $1000 and the ps3 was $500 the xbox 360 still out sold it. Very few people use their players for movie playback.

Lots of people only bought PS3 because it had BRD playback!

 

[ban25]

I'm fairly certain this is the last console generation with physical distribution. Everything is moving to digital and we will be better for it. It's a brave new world!

 

[Xenus]

This as in the present or the next gen. Present I wouldn't agree with you after next gen I would.

 

[V3]

I think the problem with download only besides the obvious thing that in some places where internet connection is not viable is that even in countries with fast internet, downloading a full BD/multi DVD games is a bit too much (fast, but not fast enough... data cap...).
The biggest difference between games download and movies download is that movies download is streaming... you can have instant gratification with it. Games download.. not so much.
If a next gen console want to have a download only sku, they should consider to try partial download approach, where the initial download is just enough to go trough the 1st stage and download the rest in the background... and probably for games with FMV, they could just stream the FMV portion without the need to store it in the local storage.

I don't see why games can't be streamed. Considering many games stream from disc.

 

[TheWretched]

I don't see why games can't be streamed. Considering many games stream from disc.

Because even a lowly 2x CDROM is likely as fast as your average internet connection at about 300kb/s. And this is talking of countries like Germany and the US, which make up a great percentage of all sales.

PS3s BDROM has 9MB/s, which is 4.5 times faster than what you can get under ideal conditions in Germany (ignoring exotic technology like VDSL and such).