Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

[Shifty Geezer]

Isnt what you are talking about already covered by the PSP? Except you are removing the ability to play on the the go and rely on having a TV and power scource available?

You misunderstand. Think an iPad. xPad would do everything iPad does. However, it would also include TV out and support for controllers, so you can connect it to a TV. Similar to PSP, only designed to output 720p graphics as opposed to PSP's low-res output, and with the advantages of iPad. When plugged into a TV, xPad functions much like a 360. In addition to that, to address the issue of game distribution, there could be a docking bay with a BRD drive which would be used to get content onto the xPad. Movies and games would copied to internal storage. You could also have a low power mode when running off batteries which limits the types of games that can be played, or warns you of limited battery life, and a higher power mode when plugged in to the mains meaning no battery considerations when specifying the hardware for 'console mode'.

 

[ShadowRunner]

I can see the appeal of such a device but not as the replacement for the Xbox, maybe as a seperate project. I dont think such a device would sit well with there current userbase if the competition provides the high-end traditional console and thus they would be risking everything they have built so far with little to gain. A device like that could live alongside their next console without canibalising each others sales IMO.

I dont like the idea of carrying controllers and cables around with it though as it then ends up being not really portable, it would be just like carrying a normal console around a friends but in a smaller bag. The controls would need to be integrated into the device, but then you have the issue of multiplayer to solve. Makes more sense to me to release an ipad competitor with an emphasis on gaming, alongside a traditional settop box, instead of making crippling sacrifices to both for the sake of convergence.

Not to mention it blows the idea of bieng the centerpeice of home entertainment out of the water. If you are carying around the device the rest of the family are screwed, no movies on demand or sky tv etc for them! I cant see MS wanting to give up there position in this regard.

 

[corduroygt]

Sega had the same idea with the VMU's 12 years ago
I think something similar to that would be more suitable...

 

[eastmen]

Well i think we can all safely assume that the next round of consoles will all be equipped with a nice big fast Blu-Ray drive

Mabye , mabye not.

I'm convinced that they can do a NA / Japan /UK verison of the console with DD only and have optical solutions for other countrys

 

[Shifty Geezer]

Not to mention it blows the idea of bieng the centerpeice of home entertainment out of the water. If you are carying around the device the rest of the family are screwed, no movies on demand or sky tv etc for them! I cant see MS wanting to give up there position in this regard.

You'd buy two. As for controllers, something like EyeToy games can be built into the device for controllerless gaming. The use as a console on the go would imply you're stopping off somewhere where a handheld won't cut it, in which case you'll likely have packing, in which case a controller is hardly going to make the difference.

The problem I have with something like this being a complimentary product is diluting attention, both from consumers and developers. Maybe if the xPad and neXbox were broadly code compatible, so you could run (some) games in a cut-down version on xPad, you could bridge that, but you also hsve the issues of developers supporting dual SKUs then, and the neXbox wouldn't get the optimisation you'd want. Then again, 360 doesn't appear to have had a huge hardware push, and I'm sure middleware will only be more prevalent next gen. Imagine CryEngine on xPad and neXbox, with its on-the-fly cross-compilation. If you could add more graphics procsesing in the base unit, you could offer two approaches - a cheaper standalone console for the current gamers who just want games and media, a conventional upgrade from 360; and an xPad based system with lower power portable xPad and base unit that ups the overall performance to that of the major console. It'd cost more, but you'd get the portable element. And you could sell other xPads to family members which becomes their own personal Xbox experience, dockable in the same base unit.

 

[ShadowRunner]

Well im not buying one, let alone two

Its an interesting idea. I guarantee its not going to happen though, if it does another poster on this forum will be missing their right testicle .

 

[corduroygt]

Mabye , mabye not.

I'm convinced that they can do a NA / Japan /UK verison of the console with DD only and have optical solutions for other countrys

Nope, it'd be suicide. Compared with the competitors where you can buy new games for cheap from multiple competing vendors vs, one vendor for the same old price (i.e. Lost Planet 2 is $20 from Amazon today, vs. the very few discounts from PSN/XBL), and also where you can trade your old with friends or trade them in, very few people will pay $60 for games they will never be able to sell, half of 360 userbase isn't even online! I won't even go into the fact that 768kbps is considered "broadband" in many places in North America. Steam can only afford to exist because games are dirt cheap (and they can't raise the prices since PC people will only pirate it in that case) and they don't make nearly enough money compared to console sales either.

 

[eastmen]

Nope, it'd be suicide. Compared with the competitors where you can buy new games for cheap from multiple competing vendors vs, one vendor for the same old price (i.e. Lost Planet 2 is $20 from Amazon today, vs. the very few discounts from PSN/XBL), and also where you can trade your old with friends or trade them in, very few people will pay $60 for games they will never be able to sell, half of 360 userbase isn't even online! I won't even go into the fact that 768kbps is considered "broadband" in many places in North America. Steam can only afford to exist because games are dirt cheap (and they can't raise the prices since PC people will only pirate it in that case) and they don't make nearly enough money compared to console sales either.

There are multiple ways to deliver the games that dont require a fast internet connnection. We've had the discusion before. As for internet speeds. Remember the console generation will start no sooner than 2012. So it be about two years of progress on internet speeds. The smart thing would be you click to buy it starts downloading everything required to play the first level of the game and let users play while downloading more. It works well for mmorpgs.

USB 3.0 allows up to 600MB/s transfer speed. IT should allow a download of 36 gigs in less than a minute if it can saturate the transfer rate. So even if it only hts 20 gigs in a minute thats not bad for a title. So You can not only download it at home but go to a kiosk in Best Buy put your drive in and download the game there.

I'm sure that that MS/Sony want to eliminate as much piracy and second hand market as they possibly can. Which is why I think they will go this route


Allso don't spread bull about Steam there are plenty of expensive titles on the platform .Not everyone waits for sales. I have Fallout 3 vegas preordered at $50 and Dead rising 2 preordered at $40 and think Civ 5 was $50. The only pc title not preordered on steam is DCU online because of the statue that comes with the collectors.

 

[Rangers]

I think the whole DD option would have to be done by some company without any legacy issues. Basically I would see it as a natural fit for any type of Apple console if such a thing ever came to pass.

Look at all the backlash over the PSP Go, then look at all the gaming success of the iPod/Pad/Phone which are DD only devices. Too me I guess a lot of the difference is simply expectations. The i devices never had any physical media, it was never expected.

 

[corduroygt]

As for internet speeds. Remember the console generation will start no sooner than 2012. So it be about two years of progress on internet speeds.

In 1999, I had 10Mbit/s internet. 11 years later, my internet has only improved to 16Mbit/s and now I have a quota of 250GB, which I didn't have before. So you're wrong on this.

USB 3.0 allows up to 600MB/s transfer speed. IT should allow a download of 36 gigs in less than a minute if it can saturate the transfer rate. So even if it only hts 20 gigs in a minute thats not bad for a title. So You can not only download it at home but go to a kiosk in Best Buy put your drive in and download the game there.

Even the best, super expensive SSD's only have a write speed of around 140 MB/s. Mechanical 2.5" HDD's are about 20MB/s sustained, so USB 3.0 or not, kiosks will not be practical and I'm not even mentioning the hassle of removing your hard drive and taking it to the store, and the loss of impulse sales because you didn't have your drive with you.

I'm sure that that MS/Sony want to eliminate as much piracy and second hand market as they possibly can. Which is why I think they will go this route

Piracy, yes, but you are gravely, very gravely mistaken that they want to eliminate the 2nd hand market, that's incorrect. Not everyone wants to spend 60 bucks for a game, and the possibility of being able to resell that game increases the number of people paying the 60 bucks. They want a CUT of the 2nd hand market, not eliminate it, because they know elimination of 2nd hand buyers will NOT translate into new game sales.

All publishers know they won't be able to make everyone think their game's worth 60 bucks, so what they want instead is to get a cut of the second hand market, there will always be a customer group that will buy only/mostly cheaper games. That's why they have the greatest hits titles for example, it's a way of getting a cut of lower priced game sales. This can still be established with DD, mind you, via an eBay like system where you could sell your DD license and the publisher gets a cut.

Allso don't spread bull about Steam there are plenty of expensive titles on the platform .Not everyone waits for sales. I have Fallout 3 vegas preordered at $50 and Dead rising 2 preordered at $40 and think Civ 5 was $50. The only pc title not preordered on steam is DCU online because of the statue that comes with the collectors.

You are definitely in the minority on this one, that's why we get news that the sales of a certain title increased 11500% or some absurd number like that when it went on sale on steam. Not many people buy DD titles at full price like you do, in fact I'd bet the vast majority buys it at a discount or at a store if they must have it on day 1. Full-price steam buyers are only a fraction of full price disc buyers.

 

[Xenus]

Yeah for present DD is a nonstater. Could you Imagine the next Final Fantasy being near 50 gigs and then the massive load on the servers slowing down the downloads to a crawl. It'd be a disaster. No one could get the game even on a fast connection.

 

[botjeter]

Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech

Sony will maneuver (cant spell anymore) there vast R&D advantage into the forefront!.

 

[aaronspink]

Mabye , mabye not.

I'm convinced that they can do a NA / Japan /UK verison of the console with DD only and have optical solutions for other countrys

And while those other countries may use an optical to distribute, its quite possible that the BR will just have the DD package on it. Effectively the BR would just act as a single serving network pipe.

 

[aaronspink]

Steam can only afford to exist because games are dirt cheap (and they can't raise the prices since PC people will only pirate it in that case) and they don't make nearly enough money compared to console sales either.

yes, 50 and 60 per game is dirt cheap. Better not let the publishers hear that. Steam exists and makes money buy selling games at a wide variety of pricing points of a games life. They sell multiple millions upon millions of games at retail pricing.

And you do realize that sony is bringing steam to playstation, right?

 

[homerdog]

You are definitely in the minority on this one, that's why we get news that the sales of a certain title increased 11500% or some absurd number like that when it went on sale on steam. Not many people buy DD titles at full price like you do, in fact I'd bet the vast majority buys it at a discount or at a store if they must have it on day 1. Full-price steam buyers are only a fraction of full price disc buyers.

So you claim that "Not many people buy DD titles at full price", and your only evidence is the fact that games sell more copies when they go on sale.

If we're betting, I'd bet that DD sales of PC new releases don't trail disc sales by much at all.

 

[aaronspink]

In 1999, I had 10Mbit/s internet. 11 years later, my internet has only improved to 16Mbit/s and now I have a quota of 250GB, which I didn't have before. So you're wrong on this.

Hmm, my parents can get 150Mbit symmetric right now if they wanted to. The base service for them is 50Mbit. They hardly live in some metropolis. And you don't need an high speed network connections for a DD content model. Valve has been all DD for years now, even with in store discs.

Piracy, yes, but you are gravely, very gravely mistaken that they want to eliminate the 2nd hand market, that's incorrect. Not everyone wants to spend 60 bucks for a game, and the possibility of being able to resell that game increases the number of people paying the 60 bucks. They want a CUT of the 2nd hand market, not eliminate it, because they know elimination of 2nd hand buyers will NOT translate into new game sales.

Oh they want to eliminate the second hand market. The model they are all aiming at is the steam model where after a period of time, you deploy specials, and then after a period of time, you drop the price, then after a period of time, you deploy even better specials. It the only real way to get revenue maximization.

You are definitely in the minority on this one, that's why we get news that the sales of a certain title increased 11500% or some absurd number like that when it went on sale on steam. Not many people buy DD titles at full price like you do, in fact I'd bet the vast majority buys it at a discount or at a store if they must have it on day 1. Full-price steam buyers are only a fraction of full price disc buyers.

Steam does a very brisk biz in DD of first run/pre-release games. The flexibility of their pricing model allows bumping tail sales via specials, etc in order to maximize revenue returns. Every single publisher and developer is envious of the steam model and is either embracing steam itself or trying to launch their own parallel service.

 

[aaronspink]

Yeah for present DD is a nonstater. Could you Imagine the next Final Fantasy being near 50 gigs and then the massive load on the servers slowing down the downloads to a crawl. It'd be a disaster. No one could get the game even on a fast connection.

That's not how DD is done, hasn't been done like that for a while. They use a distributed distribution model with head end units. Either they do the infrastructure themselves or they contract it out to various companies like Akamai. ISPs generally either give zero cost colo or actually pay for the service/boxes themselves as it saves them significant amounts of money because they can deliver faster speeds without requiring higher speed pipes to the internet at large. As an example, it costs netflix 7 cents to distribute an HD movie over the internet to a user on average. The larger the volume/bandwidth, the cheaper the relative costs are.

Even 50G isn't that big of a deal quite honestly, esp if the download package(s) are organized correctly allowing you to start playing while the rest of the game is still downloading. DD also allows you to preload games safely encrypted and then distribute/lock the game to an account/console/computer at the go live time.

While it may not be the only mechanism for next gen consoles, I do expect that every game on every next gen console to be available via DD, day, date, and time with any brick and mortar release.

 

[corduroygt]

They sell multiple millions upon millions of games at retail pricing.

The numbers don't back you up on that one, I'd ask you to show a link, but I know you won't be able to, so here it is:
http://www.npd.com/press/releases/press_100721.html

While NPD’s point-of-sale research shows that PC physical retail sales experienced a year-over-year revenue decline in 2009, it was still slightly larger than PC digital download sales on a unit basis. PC digital downloads represented close to half of unit sales across digital and retail at 48 percent in 2009, and accounted for 36 percent of dollar sales.

So right there you see that they sell 48% but make only 36% of dollar amount (despite the millions of WOW subscriptions to bolster that), so on the average they're giving at least 25% off compared to retail. Also 21 million downloads compares poorly to 100M+ units of higher priced console software sales, not to mention half of 360's aren't even connected to the internet, so I guess broadband isn't as prevalent as you think it is.

 

[eastmen]

I think the whole DD option would have to be done by some company without any legacy issues. Basically I would see it as a natural fit for any type of Apple console if such a thing ever came to pass.

Look at all the backlash over the PSP Go, then look at all the gaming success of the iPod/Pad/Phone which are DD only devices. Too me I guess a lot of the difference is simply expectations. The i devices never had any physical media, it was never expected.

Why , PS3 no longer has BC support with ps2. So if the ps3 was DD only there wouldn't need to be an optical drive.

An xbox next doesn't need to have BC with the xbox 360. MS has already shown they don't mind selling last gen games to you again in DD formats

And while those other countries may use an optical to distribute, its quite possible that the BR will just have the DD package on it. Effectively the BR would just act as a single serving network pipe

That is true. Whats great with that idea is that they don't have to worry about optical speeds.

I wonder if they can use a hybrid drive. 16 gigs of nand like an ssd + 1TB 64meg 7,200 rpm drive. The current games can then be cached to the nand section of the drive for faster loading. You can fit a full 3.5inch drive as for the NA/Europe and Japan consoles wouldnt need an optical.

I don't see sony doing this as they have a vested intrest in an opical format. But for MS and nintendo it migh be the way to go

 

[eastmen]

The numbers don't back you up on that one, I'd ask you to show a link, but I know you won't be able to, so here it is:
http://www.npd.com/press/releases/press_100721.html


So right there you see that they sell 48% but make only 36% of dollar amount (despite the millions of WOW subscriptions to bolster that), so on the average they're giving at least 25% off compared to retail. Also 21 million downloads compares poorly to 100M+ units of higher priced console software sales, not to mention half of 360's aren't even connected to the internet, so I guess broadband isn't as prevalent as you think it is.

Before the xbox slim 100% of xbox 360s had no wifi. If it had wifi included from the box I'd expect the nubmers to be higher.

100M + units of higher priced console software sales also have retail hands in it , platform holders hands in it , distrubtion , packaging costs also involved.