I'd like to add that to this that they'd need a very compelling reason to upgrade their systems. Maybe if they were desperate to embrace 3D for every single game they would consider it. However I doubt that at the rate of <1M new 3D sets for 2010 they will do it as it would simply add a lot of PITA for little gain in the short term. In a longer term scenario it only really makes sense if they intend to hold off a proper upgrade until far later such as 2014 or 2015 but thats extremely doubtful as the competitive landscape can shift drastically in the space of a few years.
Predict: The Next Generation Console Tech
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I'd like to add that to this that they'd need a very compelling reason to upgrade their systems. Maybe if they were desperate to embrace 3D for every single game they would consider it. However I doubt that at the rate of <1M new 3D sets for 2010 they will do it as it would simply add a lot of PITA for little gain in the short term. In a longer term scenario it only really makes sense if they intend to hold off a proper upgrade until far later such as 2014 or 2015 but thats extremely doubtful as the competitive landscape can shift drastically in the space of a few years.
Who is "nApoleon"?
And i think 2008 for a 2012 console is too early to start development, unless theyre just in very general terms. I doubt Xenos was started in 2001 before the first Xbox launched (4 years before 360)...
I think that a power6 derivative is more likely than a power7 Derivative for the next xbox.
Power6 is IN order, where as power7 is back to an out of order design. This would give the best compatibility with the existing 360, whilst an In-Order design is probably more suited to Kinect processing. Having said that if MS can get a Power7 derived chip @ 3.2Ghz ( equal to the current xenon cpu core speed) then in order vs. out of order won't matter much.
I'm very interested to see how AMD/ATI handle the memory architecture of the upcoming fusion products, as i think this will have a major influence on the cache structure in the next xbox, ideally a large edram buffer would be best, like now but 3-4x larger. However 8Mb L3 on the cpu is waaay too much for a console cpu, i wouldn't be surprised to see some sort of combined framebuffer/L3 cache made out of edram. however this will only come from lessons learned via the fusion products.
I'm still undecided if i think they will put any dedicated processing into the Kintect v2.
Pro: Dedicated hardware would be much more efficient and lower power.
Con: Cost of the Kinect device, and you have processing power that goes to waste in games that don't use Kintect.
Personally i would like to see Kintect v2. have dedicated hardware inside, and become a core function of the console, similar to the dash is now. With Globally accessible hand movements for various functions - perhaps even user customizable presets.
Power6 is IN order, where as power7 is back to an out of order design. This would give the best compatibility with the existing 360, whilst an In-Order design is probably more suited to Kinect processing. Having said that if MS can get a Power7 derived chip @ 3.2Ghz ( equal to the current xenon cpu core speed) then in order vs. out of order won't matter much.
I'm very interested to see how AMD/ATI handle the memory architecture of the upcoming fusion products, as i think this will have a major influence on the cache structure in the next xbox, ideally a large edram buffer would be best, like now but 3-4x larger. However 8Mb L3 on the cpu is waaay too much for a console cpu, i wouldn't be surprised to see some sort of combined framebuffer/L3 cache made out of edram. however this will only come from lessons learned via the fusion products.
I'm still undecided if i think they will put any dedicated processing into the Kintect v2.
Pro: Dedicated hardware would be much more efficient and lower power.
Con: Cost of the Kinect device, and you have processing power that goes to waste in games that don't use Kintect.
Personally i would like to see Kintect v2. have dedicated hardware inside, and become a core function of the console, similar to the dash is now. With Globally accessible hand movements for various functions - perhaps even user customizable presets.
Google "chiphell"
Cell's development period was more than 4 years.If ATI decide to build a new architecture,they need 2 years at least,and another year for mass production.
Atom is in-order,full compatibility with OoOE X86 cpus,so I don't think OoOE Power7 would break compatibility.And Power7 is way more powerful than Power6.
If Kinect need more process power,MS can use a more powerful CPU to handle it.Why they need dedicated processing?Software solution is scalable and flexible.A single core in 32nm Power7 probably consume less than 10W,and it has enough processing power for Kinect.
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Most recently it was Lewis MS europe exec for the European region.
It doesn't mean that they'll launch something else in the mean time but with the Wii running success (it really sell itself right now) I indeed Ms/Sony delaying a costly launch at least as long as the Wii has some steam.
Pretty much was "we" were expecting here, but as the Wii is no where near to lose its momentum and Ms is trying to push Kinect to mass market the odds for a further delayed launch grows.
Indeed the system would not be under powered for sure but really competitive? I don't know lost of people will have PC which capabilities are really close. It would not take much to make the PC more understandable to mass market especially in regard to game capabilities. AMD/ATI with its "Vision" logo tries to get there. I don't know what Intel take will be. But that kind of "compliance" should come (be defined) by Ms to become really relevant. I read that a PC gamers here don't believe much in this MS promise but who knows? My point is really why buy a console if you PC can deliver mostly the same experience? (/and that capability is properly advertised).
I think that we will learn soon more about Ms strategy, the ED division is likely to get reworked, Palmer doesn't get involved for nothing. Maybe the change @Ms may end bigger than expected.
Clearly missing the "mobility" train it would be a disastrous for Ms.
Growth perspectives for PC (in the private realm) are not that good and for a good reason, Jobs is right when he compared PC to truck, PC has to evolved. People no longer want those bulky, ugly thing under their desk, that crazy amount of wires, etc. They (PC) really have to evolve imho to meet the need of their audience, I can see the "hardcore" complain, as sleeker form factor may come at the cost of less upgradable partls, tuning/whatever. They won't acknowledge the fact any time soon but it's an almost ripe hanging fruit. I'll go as far as saying that the age of discrete GPUs will come to end sooner than latter, from my POV bi-CPU/APU set-up are more likely. Clearly the market needs have changed. Actually it's worse as enterprise and private needs are pretty much converging, less power, less heat, better form factor.
If the PC market becomes less relevant it will hurt Ms main business OS, they'll have to come with a strategy to sustain PC and thus OS sales.
I think that APUs /fusion CPUs back up with proper marketing can change public perception in regard to computers. MS is likely to be in discussion / working with ATI in regard to what they want for their next system or about where they want directX to go in its next rendition. Ms can't afford to not be ready if the other manufacturers on the console market make an unexpected / anticipated move, as time passes the whole thing may end canned.
I would never criticize on that matter as it takes me ages and a lot edits to bring my posts to a barely acceptable English level
Anyway I see nothing wrong with your English
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2012 does work for a next generation Xbox because they could afford to price it a little higher and keep the current system in the market at the same time. By then an Xbox 360 Arcade on a 28nm process node or lower ought to not cost much at all to produce and they may infact be on an even smaller, even slimmer case by then as well.
Possibly but they should have a more tight schedule in regard to profitability /returns on investment as the shift I'm describing may not happen in 2/3 years but the other way around I don't think it will take ages to occur.
To some extend I wonder if Ms best advantage is make this happen ASAP vs launch a new xbox.
A hurdle I see to this move is Windows 7 it sells well but imho it's no longer in phase with what consumers expect out of an OS, it will only get worse as more people get there hands on smart-phone tablet. Whereas windows 7 is fine it's still tight to a vision of computer dating from the eighties. Ms has a lot of work on the table imho and they should come sooner than latter with a proper vision of what "computers" should be in the 21th century. If they don't Apple and Google could quickly hurt them on their main OS business.
It's such a tough move for Ms but clearly in the personal realm I see more and more people willing to give up on Windows. MS should acknowledge the fact that a lot of the windows advantages (tons softs available, support for millions of peripherals, etc.) are becoming irrelevant to their costumers. May be Ms should have bigger plan for Windows 7 mobile? Bigger than the mobility market alone. Anyway Ms has a bunch of clever guys I'm not to out smart and still a lot of traction on the market so let see what they do/decide.
2 inches is VR glasses viewing distance. You can see whole image with that. I'm just curious about 3D things, since I'm 3D blind I can't see it for myself.
Its hard to say what their ROI is without knowing precisely what proportion of E+D losses/profits are actually Xbox related. Its also hard to know how the different projects and resources interlink. For instance its unknown what the mobility between say Windows Mobile engineers and Xbox 360 / Xbox next OS designers are. We can only work with what we can figure out or what we are told!
What a new console means is the ability to increase or sustain their hardware and services revenue whilst exploring new avenues to interlink Xbox Live, Win-mobile etc. However so long as their revenue continues to increase they cannot be in any hurry to actually replace the console.
Its hard to say what their ROI is without knowing precisely what proportion of E+D losses/profits are actually Xbox related. Its also hard to know how the different projects and resources interlink. For instance its unknown what the mobility between say Windows Mobile engineers and Xbox 360 / Xbox next OS designers are. We can only work with what we can figure out or what we are told!
What a new console means is the ability to increase or sustain their hardware and services revenue whilst exploring new avenues to interlink Xbox Live, Win-mobile etc. However so long as their revenue continues to increase they cannot be in any hurry to actually replace the console.
You're missing something very big, it also means massive new hardware losses.
Sony has probably lost in the range of 6 billion on PS3, and MS 3 billion on 360, and vast majority of those are in the first couple years.
The number one reason MS and Sony want to lengthen this gen is, save money! This is the profitable part of the generation (for Sony, they just got there!). They want to stay here as long as possible. The only thing pushing them forward to a new gen is competitive pressures, but since theyre both sending signals they dont want a new gen just yet, those are lessened. Launching a new console means significant losses instantly.
Anyways, my guess is fall 2013 for next Xbox. I guess that on the Halo timetable. You get a new proper Halo every three years, Reach was 2010, IIRC we know the next Halo is next gen from some job postings so...
But really, of course I could be wrong. There's no telling. MS hasn't even hinted at a tentpole fall 2011 title yet (though there's rumors of Perfect Dark Zero 2), so to me, going by software at least, 2011 isn't even utterly ruled out (though it probably is now that I think of Kinect...)
I think you're missing something even bigger!
They would have a very profitable revenue source from the Xbox 360 which they didn't have at the start of this generation in addition to that they would have to be fools to not learn the lessons about making consoles which are too big, too hot and cost them too much money. Remember 2012 is 7 years after the release of the Xbox 360 so they can release a console which is effectively the 2011 model with one level of refinement already done.
Microsoft makes money on subscriptions, so their long term plan has to revolve around getting more Xbox consoles into peoples homes. Furthermore they benefit from a network effect, i.e. the more Live subscriptions the more likely the unattached people are going to buy Live as well over say a PS4 and PSN. Every person they steal from PSN is worth double, and the PS3 has a lot of early adopters and hardware enthusiasts who would jump at a compelling new console.
The signals they send depend on the architecture they are going to use and the simplicity/difficulty of development and porting. If they are returning to X86 for instance they would hardly need to give much more than 24 months private (high level executive), 12 months general notification (to developers specifically under NDA) that a new console was on its way.
They would have started the next gen Halo project by now, I wouldn't be surprised if they aren't well past pre-production and into the meat of actually developing the game given the number of job postings etc. If they treat it as a new I.P. and figure a 4-5 year cycle incl pre-production for a new engine etc they could release between 2-4 years from now.
Yeah definitely 2012 is ruled out.
Prophecy2k
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But then you've also got the problem of who's gonna make games for a next-gen MS console (even in 2-3 years) when devs and publishers have also lost a crack-tonne of money this gen and many are still struggling to get back into the green.
Aside from Activision; SE, EA, Take 2 etc, i.e. all the biggest publishers are not at all keen to even start thinking about next-gen... and they certainly don't want to start pumping money themselves into designing new next-gen game engines, when their current gen games aren't making them enough money to stay afloat.
MS doesn't even (meaningfully) have the 1 party developement resources to support a new console launch right now (and i doubt that would change in 2-3 years considering their strategy thus far). So again i reiterate the question... if MS wants to jump-start a new-gen with a new console in 2012-13, who's gonna be making games for it?
Aside from Activision; SE, EA, Take 2 etc, i.e. all the biggest publishers are not at all keen to even start thinking about next-gen... and they certainly don't want to start pumping money themselves into designing new next-gen game engines, when their current gen games aren't making them enough money to stay afloat.
MS doesn't even (meaningfully) have the 1 party developement resources to support a new console launch right now (and i doubt that would change in 2-3 years considering their strategy thus far). So again i reiterate the question... if MS wants to jump-start a new-gen with a new console in 2012-13, who's gonna be making games for it?
I agree about 2012 being unlikely now but I think you are both missing my point (Rangers & Squilliam).
It's not about launch costs or possible revenue in the gran scheme of things they represent real real few in regard to the mobility and desktop market.
My point (might be wrong on the time line or altogether) is about revolution mobile devices has started and how "computing devices" will fit in our everyday lives.
Apple sold 3millions ipad in 80days, I don't know how many iphone/pod have been sold but that's a lot. Numbers get even more impressive if you consider all the brands (for HTC to samsung, etc.).
It's an exploding market, the demand is only set to go higher.
Maybe it's difficult for tech people to realize this but the number of people willing to give altogether on Windows and bulky PC is crazy high. They only wait for a viable alternative, it's coming. When I don't know but sooner than most expect.
The expected growth for desktop and laptop is completely dwarfed by the mobile revolution. This will impact MS (even-though they are pretty safe in the professional segment). It's actually worse even on this segment Ms will be threatened sooner than latter by Google, they already landed a deal with Dell for some laptop.
Ms needs to reinvent it-self and reinvent the place for computer in our every day life. If they don't do it other will do. Everybody knows the proper location for a computer in nowadays life styles it's next to the TV (central place in people entertainment/everyday life). So whether PC becomes consoles or console becomes PC.
Actually computer should turn in neither of this devices it should turn into something more akin to server for storage and computation resources and. Nowadays both can be provided for cheap.
Squilliam I don't know how much data people working on xbox OS and those working on Windows mobile share but I think that the way MS sees it business has to go through a major change, think of the thing that happen at Xerox back in time.
Ms is losing to Google in regard to search engines, they're losing in the smart-phone tablet area which both are critical sectors. They are so late in those area that is questionable if marketing and good products would be able to reverse the trend. What MS needs to reverse this trend and become more relevant in those fields in a more unified offering for their costumers for their pocket to their living room.
They know what they have to do in the mobile realm as others have already shown the way, they have to reinvent"computer" before others do imho. It should no longer be "desktop" for sure.
It would be something indeed closer to a console in regard to simplicity form factor and location.
Still I don't think that it has to be a console (fixed part and perfs). Simply PC have to change both OS wise and hardware size. Ms has still a let of of tracking and can accelerate the move and rip a lot of the benefit for it-self.
PC gamers and lovers will cry has clearly for good deal of "upgradability" has to go as well as discrete GPUs. But it will happen anyway starting next year fusion CPUs / APUs will appear and AMD has stated that complete GPUs integration into the CPU should happen within the next five years. This will be a major shift beginning next year everybody computer will be able to push games with comparable settings as nowadays console (I guess that what MS is waiting before starting "PC gaming push").
So what could be "plan"?
*Accept competition, I don't believe Ms will remain in a monopolistic situation in personal computing realm. It's already a lost battle if only for weight of the mobility market.
*They'll also to accept to compete with them-self in regard to OS. I think that they should have way greater goal for windows mobile 7. It should actually power PC too.
*They should come with a new global brand, They should define compatibility requirement for windows 7 mobile on "PC". In regard to games define a hand full of performance targets for developers based on relevant hardware targets (some while pushing PC gaming, kill it for for its supporters).
Ok leave my work. I'll reserve the next post for the end of may post.
It's not about launch costs or possible revenue in the gran scheme of things they represent real real few in regard to the mobility and desktop market.
My point (might be wrong on the time line or altogether) is about revolution mobile devices has started and how "computing devices" will fit in our everyday lives.
Apple sold 3millions ipad in 80days, I don't know how many iphone/pod have been sold but that's a lot. Numbers get even more impressive if you consider all the brands (for HTC to samsung, etc.).
It's an exploding market, the demand is only set to go higher.
Maybe it's difficult for tech people to realize this but the number of people willing to give altogether on Windows and bulky PC is crazy high. They only wait for a viable alternative, it's coming. When I don't know but sooner than most expect.
The expected growth for desktop and laptop is completely dwarfed by the mobile revolution. This will impact MS (even-though they are pretty safe in the professional segment). It's actually worse even on this segment Ms will be threatened sooner than latter by Google, they already landed a deal with Dell for some laptop.
Ms needs to reinvent it-self and reinvent the place for computer in our every day life. If they don't do it other will do. Everybody knows the proper location for a computer in nowadays life styles it's next to the TV (central place in people entertainment/everyday life). So whether PC becomes consoles or console becomes PC.
Actually computer should turn in neither of this devices it should turn into something more akin to server for storage and computation resources and. Nowadays both can be provided for cheap.
Squilliam I don't know how much data people working on xbox OS and those working on Windows mobile share but I think that the way MS sees it business has to go through a major change, think of the thing that happen at Xerox back in time.
Ms is losing to Google in regard to search engines, they're losing in the smart-phone tablet area which both are critical sectors. They are so late in those area that is questionable if marketing and good products would be able to reverse the trend. What MS needs to reverse this trend and become more relevant in those fields in a more unified offering for their costumers for their pocket to their living room.
They know what they have to do in the mobile realm as others have already shown the way, they have to reinvent"computer" before others do imho. It should no longer be "desktop" for sure.
It would be something indeed closer to a console in regard to simplicity form factor and location.
Still I don't think that it has to be a console (fixed part and perfs). Simply PC have to change both OS wise and hardware size. Ms has still a let of of tracking and can accelerate the move and rip a lot of the benefit for it-self.
PC gamers and lovers will cry has clearly for good deal of "upgradability" has to go as well as discrete GPUs. But it will happen anyway starting next year fusion CPUs / APUs will appear and AMD has stated that complete GPUs integration into the CPU should happen within the next five years. This will be a major shift beginning next year everybody computer will be able to push games with comparable settings as nowadays console (I guess that what MS is waiting before starting "PC gaming push").
Back to time line are important if consoles are to launch in 2013 it will only to years prior a major shift into computer evolution (ie GPUs becoming the new FPUs). I'm not sure it's a good idea on top of my other arguments
So what could be "plan"?
I'm not crazy
*They'll also to accept to compete with them-self in regard to OS. I think that they should have way greater goal for windows mobile 7. It should actually power PC too.
*They should come with a new global brand, They should define compatibility requirement for windows 7 mobile on "PC". In regard to games define a hand full of performance targets for developers based on relevant hardware targets (some while pushing PC gaming, kill it for for its supporters).
Ok leave my work. I'll reserve the next post for the end of may post.
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They can use engines from DX11 pc games.
Turn 10,Rare,Lionhead,and probably 2nd party title from Crytek.
dragonelite
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probably off topic but i hope it supplements your post.
In the last half year they founded 2 new studio's one is a extension of rare probably doing the natal stuff. And the other Firebird studio nothing is known about that studio, yeah job ads said they are aiming for a tech savy development team and make tools for the 360 perhaps something like naughty dog. Microsoft could use something like ICE team it seems they fix a lot of stuff for sony devs from the few digital foundry articles that mention them.
http://www.gameguru.in/microsoft-xb...s-dedicated-graphics-department-for-xbox-360/
Dont forget 343 studios that has so many talented people from the industry. kenneth scott ex id artist and his wife Corinne Yu are stationed there.
Agree...
No way,X86 will dominate desktop and notebook market unless Intel abandon it.Apple has proved PPC can't compete with X86 in these markets.
They don't need a ”windows 7 mobile“ on PC,they just need develop such features in GFW.
I think MS "plan" could be like this:
Windows 7-----desktop,notebook and X86 netbook,no one can threaten MS
Windows Embedded Compact 7----ARM netbook and large hand-held devices like iPad,there is a big opportunity in a fast-growing market.
Windows phone 7-----smart phones,it will be a exceptionally hard battle against Apple and Google
Xbox------entertainment center in living room
All platforms will feature XBLA and Zune marketplace,GFW on PC and Xbox retail games will focus on hardcore gamers.
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Prophecy2k
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Yeah and how many studios across the industry currently has or are currently investing in DX11 pc gaming? The entire industry these days focusses development on consoles and so DX11 will not be relevant until the launch of the next gen of consoles, which i'm quite sure are in no way just around the corner... I doubt any of the big publishers just happen to have a DX11 pc game engine lying around.
And again, whose to say that both Xbox720 and PS4 won't both be so radically different from current PC architecture that your current DX11 pc engine won't need considerable re-working when you finally get the next-gen console specs through.
Hardly enough to prop-up and entirely new console launch from 2012 (at the earliest) to the time the rest of the industry actually catches up.
Nah, MS isn't gonna kick-start a new gen anytime soon. (2015 at the earliest is my estimate)
...and it's not like just having an engine that supports DX11 substantially reduces the up-front cost, you still need an army of artists and modelers to take advantage of that power. Yes tessellation will help somewhat, but it's not like an .ini config "Make Models looks better=1".
2015 though is ridiculous though. I say November 2014.
2015 though is ridiculous though. I say November 2014.
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